Doubt this, Diaz isn't a power puncher by any imagination, he can def hurt Bendo and force him to go to the ground where he'd submit him, but he is 100% not going to KO or even TKO Bendo. It's closer to Bendo subbing Diaz than Diaz KO'ing/TKO'ing Bendo.

Struve TKO Hunt? Never. Dude has an elite chin.

Only one line dropped so far? Sigh. I lean Swick against Brown but I am nowhere near confident enough to bet it. Brown has a way better chin and Swick was getting tagged by Johnson.

I agree about the clinches/trips. Struve should be drilling non-wrestling based takedowns. By TKO I obviously meant GNP after a sweep or clinch/trip, yeah.

Wow @ swick -130, snapbet imo - unfortunately I may have to wait for pinn line since i dont have $ anywhere the lines open yet but I like it and expected it to be closer to -180 and with him opening at that price I still expect him to close at worse than -150

Yes, he gets hit a bit but Brown is a gatekeeper and Swick is huge for the division and has great striking and certainly better TDD than Wonderboy

So far leaning Bendo, Penn, Gustaffson and Swick on the lines out so far with Swick and Bendo being the best bets at current prices imo. I'd say both are 2-star plays (based on my nonexistent system) and the others are 1 star

What if Swick and Brown just start trading strikes in the center of the cage tho? You know both of them are down and you have to trust Brown's chin way more than Swick's given how much trouble Johnson had him in. These dudes are brawlers and this is probably going to be a brawl.

If we go by their last performance, Browne looked more impressive than Swick(except for the KO).

In a fiver rounder, I genuinely think Diaz can stop Bendo through strikes. The guy has really developed some snap on his punches. Bendo can also be backed up and gets a bit stuck on the cage - really, really bad news against Diaz.

I also think it is very unlikely that anyone would have fancied Diaz to outstrike Cerrone, drop Miller and drop Gomi before those fights as well.

Also, Bendo has a very clear and obvious path to victory with the leg kicks and scoring points with TD's. I expect to see a Condit-esque plan, with leg kicks and circling to avoid Diaz, but with TD's mixed in with 90's secs or so to go in the round. Bendo will be gameplanning to win on points.

I am not heavily on Diaz but I do think he should be better priced and I think he has more ways to win.

Mir "had more ways to win" against Lesnar too. That ****'s not relevant. Thinking about who "has more ways to win" is a waste of time IMO.

To be fair, Stephen Thompson's horrendous ground game is the only reason Brown won that fight. They're brawlers yeah, but Swick has a lot more size and power to compensate for Brown's slightly more reliable chin

I think Brown's chin will crack first or Swick will take a decision enough to be confident in him at -130

Can't compare those 3 fights.

1. Cerrone fought with emotions that night which resulted in him trying to outbox Diaz. I mean, Cerrone found some succes with leg kicks but didnt even bother implementing them as a big part of his game, which he should have. Nate buckled a couple of times but Cerrone just wanted to mash in head in. He also took him down easily but didnt even try to go the ground. Bendo's not going to fight with emotions, he's going to gameplan Diazes ass, just like Condit did with Nick. Now, if you think Bendo won't be able to gameplan his way to victory, that's another story.

2. Everyone here was on diaz over gomi like white on rice. Don't think anyone actually thought Gomi couldnt be dropped by Diaz.

3. Bendos standup, takedowns are better than Jim Millers so don't try to look for any similarities there. He's also stronger and more athletic than Miller. Yes, Diaz can tag Bendo like Edgar did, but don't expect him to KO or TKO him.

Agree, Diaz dosent have the power behind his punches to drop bendo, only way he finishes is by sub (maybe sub opens up because of punches though)

I see Swick dropping Brown and subbing him in the first or second round. Browns sub defense is horrid.

Just put 1.55u to win 1 on swick

Brown has been more impressive, and Is riding a nice win streak, but stand up is pretty even between them and if the fight hits the Matt swick going to sub him.

Browns only way to win is to keep the fight standing and grind a dec, and even then, either one of them can win the dec if the fight stays standing.

Easton is -155 on ****** and Assuncao is +240 on Sportsbook

I also really like Easton at -155 fwiw. At least 2 star play there if not 3. He looked really good against Menjivar.

Ramsey is a bet at -145 too imo but more of a 1star play. I think he's a well-designed fighter to beat Proctor (good wrestler with average hands and decent sub D vs average hands above average BJJ not so much with the wrestling guy)

I think Swick, Nijem, Bendo and Easton are plays of the card at current prices with a minor odds play on Penn (havent made any bets yet but if prices are similar when Pinn odds drop on the rest ill bet those four). Two stars for Bendo and Easton, one star for Nijem and Swick imo.

When does Swick sub people?

I agree Easton and Nijem look like definite plays. Just waiting for lines to drop on 5d. Also intrigued by Martinez +100 and will be waiting for Siver/Phan goes distance prop. Jorgenson looks like parlay material at -300, don't see him losing that one, just have to figure out who to parlay with...

Griffin injured, out of Davis fight.

Goddammit. I had Davis and Weidman in a lock parlay for 2u and BOTH fights get canceled -_- Sigh.

I wonder why ppl are getting to hurt frequently this year, wonder if it's variance or something else, maybe even ducking by some people?

Doubt it's ducking just intense training. Why accept a fight in the first place if you're going to pull out just makes some fighters look worse than if they declined the fight in the first place.

I just saw that earlier

Pull Bader from the Matyushenko fight one time please so I can get on him at +300 to KO Davis

I'd love to see Anderson fight (and destroy) Davis too but he has no incentive to. Hmm, who else is there... if they're breaking up Bader/Matyushenko Bader makes more sense of the two. Hendo and Machida are already booked, as are Sonnen, Jones, Shogun, Gustaffson, Rampage and Teixeira... plus Evans and Lil'Nog... Jimmo is fighting Krystoff and TSilva is suspended so we're left with the highest ranked UFC fighters not booked for a fight being

Matt Hamill
James Te Huna
Brandon Vera
Vinny Magalhaes

Personally, i'd ask Bader if he wants the fight as he's higher profile and more competitive than any of the four and the fight with Matyushenko only just got announced.

Hamill/Davis would be the most boring fight ever and obv Hamill would get wrecked
Te Huna would get wrestle****ed
So would Vera although both have a punchers chance

... so I guess that means Vinny and his BJJ make the most exciting fight. Davis takes him down then has to deal with a top level BJJ black belt on the ground.

Offer Bader the fight and replace him with any of the four against Matyushenko, if he turns it down then offer it to Vinny, and if he doesn't want it either then Vera or Te Huna I guess (Vera for being a bigger name + Te Huna is sort of a prospect and we don't want him derailed)

Please don't give Brandon Vera Bader or someone like Davis, why waste such good standup material on a lay and pray fighter.

Bader Davis imo and put Matyshenko vs Vera or Vinny.

I love vinny, would LOVE to see that fight!! But no way he deserves it..

Davis outgrapples Bader's roided out, no cardio ass.

Easton/Jorg/Nijem parlay as well as Nijem -180.

Added another unit on Gus wins by 3 round dec +135, this just seems like he best value on the card to me.

Henderson by UD +170.

Also...took the plunge on Penn +240 O_o

[QUOTE=just_mo;36066332]When does Swick sub people? [\QUOTE]

If you forget about the story choke, mia's last sub win was against chael, almost 3 years ago. That was 9 fights in a row.

That dosent mean he isn't one of the best sub artist in the sport.

Swicks ground game is very underrated and is dangerous on the ground vs anyone in the division

Really wish Stephens wasn't as large a favorite as he is, I think the striking is pretty close to even, but with him having more power and Edwards probably being more technically sound. But Stephens is a better wrestler and could probably score a takedown or two and pound out a victory since Edwards' chin is pretty shot at this point. Actually, now that I think about it, still might be a small play at -200.

Really like Nijem. Proctor is decent, but I think he does his best work on the mat and Nijem is probably better in those areas than him and is more likely to end up on top during scrambles. I think money probably comes in on Nijem heavily so bet that early.

Probably going to throw a parlay of Cruickshank, Siver, Means and Easton. Might even bet Means straight up, because I don't think Trujillo is very good at all and Means is a pretty legit talent.

[QUOTE=yoyobo;36069534] This is an absolutely ridiculous analogy. You're comparing someone with a proven track record of sub victories AND excellent submission grappling credentials with a fighter who has subbed two people in like 12 UFC fights, Joe Riggs (lol) and some guy who has fought once in the past 6 years.

Sure, he could sub Brown, I mean the guy has been subbed like 9 times so you can never rule it too far out. The point was, Swick's not exactly the guy you see exploiting Brown's major weakness.

Anyone have any ****** money available? I have funds in Moneybookers but they don't accept that.