yeah i gotta wonder if the massive line movement at the end had anything to gsot's knee brace and general un-goodness in the octagon?

also, did whittaker break his hand? what was with all those elbows from distance?

Made about 5u this card plus have some parlays involving Lombard and Pierce that just need a favorite or two tomorrow night to close it out.

Feel great about majority of my bets, all except for that Sot ITD bet really. But I managed to break even anyways because of that fight ends ITD bet. Best bet was pretty clearly Chad Mendes ITD.

For tomorrow, when props are released I'll probably be looking at Varner ITD and SDR ITD. Already on Cofer, SDR, Poirier.

you didnt win your pierce by decision

?

Win 12/14/12 7:30pm Props Fighting 1611 Pierce wins by 3 round decision -110* vs Not Pierce by 3 round decision

melvin > varner lock it up?

fk this is a coinflip i think

I'm on Guillard (prob neutral ev bet), Cofer and Viana (both good spots as dogs imo), Nelson and Poirier plus a small action bet on barry that is almost definitely a fish play. Got it in better than current odds on Poirier but not as good as I could have so meh. Good spot tho.

I like Cofer+Viana tbh as best bets of the card, bet both and u get profit with 1/2 and I think that's the most likely outcome, I have both as marginal favs capping wise when they're both dogs in the betting odds, Nelson and Poirier are the other best ones esp Poirier imo

i think i changed my mind with $$ goin on melvin im liking varner

Results so far...

4-2, +1.643u.

Total: 46-29-0, 123.667u bet, +9.2355u, 7.5% ROI

Bit unlucky to lose the Loughnane bet from what I've read. My poor 1-star plays. I still believe in you. Rodriguez I feel like I was on the right side. Got a terrible price though. One day I'll learn to not bet dogs early.

Unfortunately I bet 3u on GSot so I actually personally lost for the card. Might stick to my own bets in future

how have u even seen footage of viana doesnt even have pic on sherdog?

I really don't understand why GSot didn't try for more takedowns btw. I mean it's probably not as simple as that but it seems like he deliberately chose a losing way to fight. I felt the same about Hale, I saw rounds 3, 4 and 5 of that fight, he was losing and his only way to win was to charge Volkov throwing combinations, instead he allowed Volkov to stay on the outside and just threw single strikes at him. Baffling.

Ya G Sot was just content to box. Bit hard to understand for sure, considering his biggest edge over Pearson was definitely his sub game. As I said, bad bet apparently, but meh we all make them.

I'm liking Varner over Guillard but it's tough to cap this one because you have to figure it's going to be high variance from the start. Neither are exactly known for being tough to finish so you have to figure this is ending within 3 rounds. Varner I would say has the better chin and is harder to sub but Guillard hits harder so...I dunno. Leaning Varner like I said but can't say I'm insanely confident.

If he can't sub him when he has his back that easy, doubt it would be any easier from side control.

Just got my Cofer bet on @ 2.36, just the Head and Mitrione bets left, expect them to drift tomorrow.

It's unreal how consistently faves shorten and dogs lengthen in these markets, I should probably do some research as to whether it's profitable to blindly bet favourites on open. I suspect it is.

He was on TUF Brazil. He's a natural 135er (maybe even 125 if he cut a bunch) and held his own at 145 vs bigger guys who aren't cans. Lost a decision to eventual winner Rony Jason Bezerra in the semis to be eliminated, then beat a much larger fellow TUF Alumni at FW in his first UFC fight in what was a fairly close fight but he was way outsized. So basically he went 3-1 vs TUF Brazil guys with his only loss by UD to the eventual winner, who beat down sam sicilia convincingly in his first UFC fight and has a lot of potential.

Basically, his skill has overcome a size disadvantage (hes not a world beater but he's decent) and he's fighting a guy his own size for the first time since i've seen him fight (3-4 fights) so I like him as a dog. The TUF guys from that season have held their own since the show. He didn't look good in his last fight but he was at a huge size disadvantage and managed to eke out a narrow decision win and he's never been finished even having fought Rony Jason who is a solid finisher so i'm not too worried about his chin.

Cofer - well, basically he was outstriking Lawrence until the fluke R3 KO. Rio got KO'd by Andy Ogle (who is pretty bad and lost a close fight to Akira recently) while Cofer was in a close fight with Pichel on the show to get eliminated. Kind of an MMAth answer, but basically I think Cofer has looked more impressive in his defeats and has shown more potential than Rio narrowly.

I mean neither are locks obviously but I did my writeup before the odds were out and had both as small favourites and I stand by that so since they're both dogs i'll take them

Cofer's been shortening a bit, I got +14x from memory and he was +160ish at one stage - Hugo Viana is at +118 atm and has been drifting slightly but I def like him at the price hes at, no idea which way line will go it seems stable atm

If Head gets above +200 i'll take him, I like him as is at current price as an odds play but I hate the guy as a fighter and want to cheer against him so i'll only bet on him if it's particularly good value as it will ruin the entertainment side of the fight if i'm betting on a guy I want to lose

Mitrione's gonna get KTFO'd though. He's just really bad. Feels like you're walking into a Diaz/Bendo stats trap there since Nelson's stats make him look worse than he is (should be a LHW and all, and he has a bunch of losses although they're to guys way better than Mitrione). I mean, I could be wrong, but I feel after the first 2-3 minutes (assuming he doesn't get caught early even) Mitrione will fade. He needs to hurt Nelson badly early to have a chance imo or he'll be grinded out or dropped and finished.

Basically, Nelson is better than Kongo at this stage of their careers and Kongo is the first somewhat competent fighter Mitrione has faced and he looked awful against Kongo, plus he's coming off a fairly long layoff so there may be ring rust.

He's 5-1 in the UFC, yes they're all against cans or low tier fighters. He looked tentative in the Kongo fight, but I mean, Kongo looked like **** in that fight too, both of them where way too careful and had too much respect. He faced same fighter as Struve did and finished the can Moorecraft in a more impressive victory than Struve did and looked a lot better doing it. He beat Beltran convincingly, yeah Beltran is a low tier fighter, but saying Mittrione is trash and shouldnt been in the UFC is a bit hasty imo. Yeah, he's prolly never getting over midrank, but he has his qualities and is an alright low level fighter.

Nelson wins this match by taking Mittrione down and either grinding out or getting a TKO stoppage. Mittrione has ****ty TDD. Mittrione is not getting KTFO or anything of that sort against Nelson, pretty sure about that(hopefully I won't have to eat up my words after the fight, I had a weird dream where Nelson KO'd Mittrione, but we'll just leave it at that ).

+0.63u for the card, +6.46u for the year on posted picks.
Never added Igor/Beltran goes the distance, oh well. Sucks that George didn't game plan better.

Moving on to tonight's fights, I'll be looking to bet Nelson ITD as soon as it opens. I have a feeling it's going to open at around -120, when the true line is closer to -185 imo. Haven't given much thought to the other fights, I like Nelson, Varner, Poirier, Pat Barry, Pyle, and Hugo Viana, but need the line for each to get a little better before betting any of them. Nelson ITD will problably end up being my biggest play tonight.

Also, just noticed that Nelson/Mitrione ITD initially opened at -120....holy cow that's some terrible handicapping on the sportsbook's part. Was anyone lucky enough to get that before it was bet into oblivion?

Mitrione because it's a 1-star play I don't have a lot to back it up and in this case it's just the 3-inch height advantage and a slight age advantage. Nelson is 36 which is getting pretty seriously old for a fighter, I know there are guys like Anderson Silva who can seemingly keep going on forever, but they are the minority. But Mitrione is 34 so no spring chicken himself, but I count that a minor advantage.

It's difficult to tell when to take handicapping advice and when not to. Certainly when watching Bendo/Diaz I was like "wow should have listened to all the people telling me Bendo's style was too much for Diaz". But the fact remains that a majority of UFC fighters polled said they thought Diaz would beat Bendo. Perhaps UFC fighters are just ******ed. But then the vast majority of people I asked about the GSot fight today thought GSot should be favoured over Pearson. Having watched the fight, that clearly is not true. So it's tough.

When u say listen to UFC fighters, where do u get that info, do u get that from some interviews or smth? Bc I think a lot of fighters opinion is biased towards the fighter they train/trained with, like and so on. And then u have to think that they arent making educated guesses, but more just on the fly.

When u say listen to UFC fighters, where do u get that info, do u get that from some interviews or smth? Bc I think a lot of fighters opinion is biased towards the fighter they train/trained with, like and so on. And then u have to think that they arent making educated guesses, but more just on the fly.

???

Am I reading those wrong or what but it look to me like you were up around 3u for your picks.

Never listen to UFC fighters, pretty much second what Swiiftx said.

I'm also thinking Nelson ITD might have value, I think he will finish Mitrione majority of the times he wins. Mitrione is just so bad off his back, I don't see him surviving if Nelson gets one of his trip TDs and he has 5 rounds to do so. It's currently -137 on 5d and that's a nice price. Then again there's also Mitrione wins by dec, and I don't think he can finish Nelson so it's tough. Maybe bet both sides?

Unfortunately 5d for whatever reason has not released props on the other fights. This makes me sad, as I was keen to see Varner ITD, Brookins ITD, and SDR ITD.

+0.13u for the card, +5.96u for the year on posted picks.
Damn, you mentioning that made me double check, I did worse than I initially though, for some reason 5D didn't move Palhares ITD to the top of the transactions list after it was graded so I overlooked it before. My bad though, the above is what I actually did for the card.

Just added Nelson ITD -137, Barry/SDR ITD -320, Head/Pyle ITD -105, and Brookins/Poirier goes to decision +105. Have 3u on Barry/SDR ITD, wasn't planning on putting much down on this card, but **** it.

Also will be betting on Varner for sure, just waiting it out as I think the line will keep getting better. If it hits +140ish I'll probably drop 2u on him.

I thought Pearson was gona win. He has pretty awesome standup, beat siver and arguably Barboza and gsot has been dropped by worse standup fighters than pearson. Also whenever it's a bjj guy vs a standup guy and the standup guy doesnt have totally worthless TDD, it's easier to train sub defense than to excel in the standup. Pretty sure Pearson drilled his sub defense as much as possible.