The Official Gold, Commodity, Alternative Currency and Asset Investment Thread
04-06-2009
, 11:16 AM
I have to say, however, that I wouldn't invest that much in gold and silver if I only had a couple grand to invest/protect. Maybe 20 silver buffalo coins or something, but no reason to throw it all into precious metals. If you have $30-40k, investing in a reasonable amount of PM makes more sense. Just imo obv.
04-06-2009
, 11:28 AM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 239
wow another one liner with zero sources, zero original content, zero interesting content... what a shocker... I dunno what to tell you Yowserrrs... both of those numbers... 12.8 trillion for the USA... and 20 trillion+ for europe have been widely reported in mainstream news sources... google is your friend... obviously you WANT TO KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND, so there's really no help for you...
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north689.html
see bloomberg article i posted above for 12.8 trillion number...
I realize I post sources for 80-90% of the things I claim, whereas you post sources for 0-10% of the things you claim, and I really have no problem being held to a higher standard... but I am just going to ignore you there's no reason putting up with blatant trolling, i just dont have the time at this point.
<><><><><><><><><><<>
@ Barron- I know Bernanke knows what really caused the Great Depression- and what scares me the most is that if he was taking actions to purposely move us into the greatest depression, he could not possibly be doing a better job.
Just because he's showing some awareness of the inflation issue doesn't mean shyt... actions speak louder than words. I agree with you though -- i think he will bring some "solutions" to the table eventually such as price fixing, rationing, looting tons and ons of cash... oh wait they're already doing that... Barron I have to ask you, have you ever seen the Obama Deception? There are a few key points in that movie I would like to discuss with you, but I feel like it would be much easier if we had some common ground to work with. To be honest with you, you seem hopeless stuck in the left right paradigm... it's a little bit more complicated than the red team vs. the blue team, but not very much more complicated...
Even if you disagree with 100% of the movie that is fine, that is great, it will open up to a great discussion. The fact of the matter is that this is the most view video ever in internet history and eventually you'll probably run into in one place or another.
<><><><><><>
T50 - you will surely not regret buying the silver! I suppose the main difference was I got the feeling you had 5-6k to invest, and this other fellow had 1-2k to invest. Silver is damned high on the list of things to acquire in my book, but items that will directly help you survive can be even more valuable than silver at times.
Ammunition/firearms
Non GMO Non Hybrid seeds
water filters
food
you could easily spend 500-1000$ on seeds, 1000$ on firearms, 2-3000$ on food, 500$ on water filters... and not really have much money to buy silver with yourself... changing your mindset and realizing that we cannot possibly maintain our grossly high standard of living is very key. Reading books and educating yourself on what is important now and may be extremely important in the future is key. My goal is self sufficiency. The gov't HATES people who are self sufficient and do not DEPEND on them for their existence.
If electricity prices go up 2-3x , if food prices go up 2-3x, gas, etc... everyone will be hurting very badly, but those who prepared will not need to dance with the devil and report to FEMA camps* in order for the gov't to protect them. As long as you stay out of the dollar, you're going to do significantly better than the other 99% of the population. I think silver will likely gain significantly in purchasing power and some of these things can be picked up further down the line... however I want to say sorry to T50 and others for not hammering some of these other important items to obtain such as food, water, etc. I'm often wrong so don't take my word for ANYTHING... do you own due diligence. That said I bet silver's AT LEAST 25 if not 30+ dollars by the end of this year... i truly believe it could double in the span o a few days.
*I've seen yowsss say fema camps dont exist many times before so I just want to go ahead and reply to your
"lol fema camps don't exist ur a conspiracy theorist." reply --so here's a little pre emptive strike :
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-645
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.p...w&pageId=87757
http://www.jbs.org/index.php/compone...userblogs/4449
do you think the germans though tthey were being brought to concentration camps? Do you think he native americans thought they were being brought to concentration camps?
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north689.html
see bloomberg article i posted above for 12.8 trillion number...
I realize I post sources for 80-90% of the things I claim, whereas you post sources for 0-10% of the things you claim, and I really have no problem being held to a higher standard... but I am just going to ignore you there's no reason putting up with blatant trolling, i just dont have the time at this point.
<><><><><><><><><><<>
@ Barron- I know Bernanke knows what really caused the Great Depression- and what scares me the most is that if he was taking actions to purposely move us into the greatest depression, he could not possibly be doing a better job.
Just because he's showing some awareness of the inflation issue doesn't mean shyt... actions speak louder than words. I agree with you though -- i think he will bring some "solutions" to the table eventually such as price fixing, rationing, looting tons and ons of cash... oh wait they're already doing that... Barron I have to ask you, have you ever seen the Obama Deception? There are a few key points in that movie I would like to discuss with you, but I feel like it would be much easier if we had some common ground to work with. To be honest with you, you seem hopeless stuck in the left right paradigm... it's a little bit more complicated than the red team vs. the blue team, but not very much more complicated...
Even if you disagree with 100% of the movie that is fine, that is great, it will open up to a great discussion. The fact of the matter is that this is the most view video ever in internet history and eventually you'll probably run into in one place or another.
<><><><><><>
T50 - you will surely not regret buying the silver! I suppose the main difference was I got the feeling you had 5-6k to invest, and this other fellow had 1-2k to invest. Silver is damned high on the list of things to acquire in my book, but items that will directly help you survive can be even more valuable than silver at times.
Ammunition/firearms
Non GMO Non Hybrid seeds
water filters
food
you could easily spend 500-1000$ on seeds, 1000$ on firearms, 2-3000$ on food, 500$ on water filters... and not really have much money to buy silver with yourself... changing your mindset and realizing that we cannot possibly maintain our grossly high standard of living is very key. Reading books and educating yourself on what is important now and may be extremely important in the future is key. My goal is self sufficiency. The gov't HATES people who are self sufficient and do not DEPEND on them for their existence.
If electricity prices go up 2-3x , if food prices go up 2-3x, gas, etc... everyone will be hurting very badly, but those who prepared will not need to dance with the devil and report to FEMA camps* in order for the gov't to protect them. As long as you stay out of the dollar, you're going to do significantly better than the other 99% of the population. I think silver will likely gain significantly in purchasing power and some of these things can be picked up further down the line... however I want to say sorry to T50 and others for not hammering some of these other important items to obtain such as food, water, etc. I'm often wrong so don't take my word for ANYTHING... do you own due diligence. That said I bet silver's AT LEAST 25 if not 30+ dollars by the end of this year... i truly believe it could double in the span o a few days.
*I've seen yowsss say fema camps dont exist many times before so I just want to go ahead and reply to your
"lol fema camps don't exist ur a conspiracy theorist." reply --so here's a little pre emptive strike :
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-645
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.p...w&pageId=87757
http://www.jbs.org/index.php/compone...userblogs/4449
do you think the germans though tthey were being brought to concentration camps? Do you think he native americans thought they were being brought to concentration camps?
Last edited by inf0wars; 04-06-2009 at 11:46 AM.
04-06-2009
, 12:00 PM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 239
http://www.efoodsdirect.com/product-...?c=1&id=cseeds
I just want to specifically comment on this item since it's being sold in many locations and is a very "uniform" item. I would surely not pay more than $40 for this item... this site used to sell these cans for $35 each not very long at all.. they seem to keep creeping up in price... please shop around you may be able to find them somewhere else for $35. Also if you buy a dozen of these at once, i bet efoodsdirect.com may give you some kind of discount. I'm not sure you necessarily want a dozen of these, but having 2 or 3 of them probably won't hurt.
Pluses
-there's over a pound ( i can't recall exacly how much, i will post this info later on ) of seeds in this, the sites says 23000 seeds but that doesn't really mean that much... its tough to picture those seeds in your head.
-his item has really long shelf life, they advertise 5 years. I bet if you keep this at 40-50 degrees or in one of your extra freezers in the basement etc, these seeds could easily be viable 10 years from now. This is a big plus since a significant portion of seeds you buy may not be viable after a couple of years. The better job you do storing them, the longer they will last of course.
-this item can make a great gift to someone because it's really not THAT expensive, If you go from owning zero of these cans to owning one of hem, that's a pretty big upgrade. It may also promote discussion of the patriot movement, etc. also the more you help out others now, the less you may have to do so later on.
Cons
-this damned can is sealed shut and we all should be gardening NOW... make sure you buy some other seeds so you're ot tempted to crack this sucker open.
-you're paying an extra premium for canning and packaging... some of the sies I recommended earlier
-there is a good variety, but it could much wider for sure. I find hat it's best to buy seeds of exactly what you want to grow and what you want to eat.
-
I would say that I ha ve had the best success growing leafy greens like lettuce, spinash, swiss chard, kale, tomatoes, etc etc... i try to grow items that are expensive in the grocery store...
growing an item like potatoes or carrotts or something that is dirt cheap in the grocery store seems like kind of a waste to me... i's all about gettin that cash MONEY =) or not spending it in he first place
I just want to specifically comment on this item since it's being sold in many locations and is a very "uniform" item. I would surely not pay more than $40 for this item... this site used to sell these cans for $35 each not very long at all.. they seem to keep creeping up in price... please shop around you may be able to find them somewhere else for $35. Also if you buy a dozen of these at once, i bet efoodsdirect.com may give you some kind of discount. I'm not sure you necessarily want a dozen of these, but having 2 or 3 of them probably won't hurt.
Pluses
-there's over a pound ( i can't recall exacly how much, i will post this info later on ) of seeds in this, the sites says 23000 seeds but that doesn't really mean that much... its tough to picture those seeds in your head.
-his item has really long shelf life, they advertise 5 years. I bet if you keep this at 40-50 degrees or in one of your extra freezers in the basement etc, these seeds could easily be viable 10 years from now. This is a big plus since a significant portion of seeds you buy may not be viable after a couple of years. The better job you do storing them, the longer they will last of course.
-this item can make a great gift to someone because it's really not THAT expensive, If you go from owning zero of these cans to owning one of hem, that's a pretty big upgrade. It may also promote discussion of the patriot movement, etc. also the more you help out others now, the less you may have to do so later on.
Cons
-this damned can is sealed shut and we all should be gardening NOW... make sure you buy some other seeds so you're ot tempted to crack this sucker open.
-you're paying an extra premium for canning and packaging... some of the sies I recommended earlier
-there is a good variety, but it could much wider for sure. I find hat it's best to buy seeds of exactly what you want to grow and what you want to eat.
-
I would say that I ha ve had the best success growing leafy greens like lettuce, spinash, swiss chard, kale, tomatoes, etc etc... i try to grow items that are expensive in the grocery store...
growing an item like potatoes or carrotts or something that is dirt cheap in the grocery store seems like kind of a waste to me... i's all about gettin that cash MONEY =) or not spending it in he first place
04-06-2009
, 12:06 PM
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,347
Quote:
wow another one liner with zero sources, zero original content, zero interesting content... what a shocker... I dunno what to tell you Yowserrrs... both of those numbers... 12.8 trillion for the USA... and 20 trillion+ for europe have been widely reported in mainstream news sources... google is your friend... obviously you WANT TO KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND, so there's really no help for you...
Its sad how you can spend as much time as you do pulling up every possible news report that you can spin to make worse than it is. Perhaps if you had dedicated as much time to school and work, you would actually have a career in front of you and then perhaps not be obsessed with a collapse that would vindicate your own laziness and stupidity.
04-06-2009
, 12:07 PM
A few questions Info,
Any thoughts/rationale for Gold's recent drop to about $870/oz (aside from it being a solid buying opportunity)?
Why the premium for American Gold Eagles vs. a Maple Leaf or a Krug...(is it because Gold Eagles are 22K and still a full oz of gold...thus being slightly more durable)?
Junk Silver coins seem like a slam dunk right now...not much premium over spot, plus they're highly divisible/easily used for barter...recommend you do a longer post on the subject since you're the expert obv. Don't have any yet, but if I can scrape together some scratch they look really attractive now IMO.
Any thoughts/rationale for Gold's recent drop to about $870/oz (aside from it being a solid buying opportunity)?
Why the premium for American Gold Eagles vs. a Maple Leaf or a Krug...(is it because Gold Eagles are 22K and still a full oz of gold...thus being slightly more durable)?
Junk Silver coins seem like a slam dunk right now...not much premium over spot, plus they're highly divisible/easily used for barter...recommend you do a longer post on the subject since you're the expert obv. Don't have any yet, but if I can scrape together some scratch they look really attractive now IMO.
04-06-2009
, 12:23 PM
Quote:
T50 - you will surely not regret buying the silver! I suppose the main difference was I got the feeling you had 5-6k to invest, and this other fellow had 1-2k to invest. Silver is damned high on the list of things to acquire in my book, but items that will directly help you survive can be even more valuable than silver at times.
Ammunition/firearms
Non GMO Non Hybrid seeds
water filters
food
you could easily spend 500-1000$ on seeds, 1000$ on firearms, 2-3000$ on food, 500$ on water filters... and not really have much money to buy silver with yourself... changing your mindset and realizing that we cannot possibly maintain our grossly high standard of living is very key. Reading books and educating yourself on what is important now and may be extremely important in the future is key. My goal is self sufficiency. The gov't HATES people who are self sufficient and do not DEPEND on them for their existence.
If electricity prices go up 2-3x , if food prices go up 2-3x, gas, etc... everyone will be hurting very badly, but those who prepared will not need to dance with the devil and report to FEMA camps* in order for the gov't to protect them. As long as you stay out of the dollar, you're going to do significantly better than the other 99% of the population. I think silver will likely gain significantly in purchasing power and some of these things can be picked up further down the line... however I want to say sorry to T50 and others for not hammering some of these other important items to obtain such as food, water, etc. I'm often wrong so don't take my word for ANYTHING... do you own due diligence. That said I bet silver's AT LEAST 25 if not 30+ dollars by the end of this year... i truly believe it could double in the span o a few days.
Ammunition/firearms
Non GMO Non Hybrid seeds
water filters
food
you could easily spend 500-1000$ on seeds, 1000$ on firearms, 2-3000$ on food, 500$ on water filters... and not really have much money to buy silver with yourself... changing your mindset and realizing that we cannot possibly maintain our grossly high standard of living is very key. Reading books and educating yourself on what is important now and may be extremely important in the future is key. My goal is self sufficiency. The gov't HATES people who are self sufficient and do not DEPEND on them for their existence.
If electricity prices go up 2-3x , if food prices go up 2-3x, gas, etc... everyone will be hurting very badly, but those who prepared will not need to dance with the devil and report to FEMA camps* in order for the gov't to protect them. As long as you stay out of the dollar, you're going to do significantly better than the other 99% of the population. I think silver will likely gain significantly in purchasing power and some of these things can be picked up further down the line... however I want to say sorry to T50 and others for not hammering some of these other important items to obtain such as food, water, etc. I'm often wrong so don't take my word for ANYTHING... do you own due diligence. That said I bet silver's AT LEAST 25 if not 30+ dollars by the end of this year... i truly believe it could double in the span o a few days.
Of course I'm cheerleading a recovery, but the gold/silver is a just-in-case type of bet. I've still got lots of money on the sidelines in USD that I'll be investing before long.
I have a rough plan for dealing with the apocalypse, so I don't really need to cover that base any more.
Again, thanks for your help in buying the PM--I prob would have gone 100% gold if not for your input.
Last edited by T50_Omaha8; 04-06-2009 at 12:27 PM.
Reason: .
04-06-2009
, 12:29 PM
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,740
Quote:
We discussed previously that the Bloomberg number includes a large number of backstops on various banks, money markets, etc. Your 'analysis' is basically the same as looking at the million covered lives at XYZ insurance company and calculating what their liability would be if everyone died at once. Obviously the real inflationary component is nowhere near that and that point should be obvious when one considers that $12.8 trillion is enough to buy the entire S&P 500 or 80% of the market capitalization of every public company in the United States.
Its sad how you can spend as much time as you do pulling up every possible news report that you can spin to make worse than it is. Perhaps if you had dedicated as much time to school and work, you would actually have a career in front of you and then perhaps not be obsessed with a collapse that would vindicate your own laziness and stupidity.
Its sad how you can spend as much time as you do pulling up every possible news report that you can spin to make worse than it is. Perhaps if you had dedicated as much time to school and work, you would actually have a career in front of you and then perhaps not be obsessed with a collapse that would vindicate your own laziness and stupidity.
Also remember a lot of this stuff is phony. For example, you have the treasury backstopping the fed with the fed backstopping the treasury. This makes no sense as there is no real back stop between the two. You have the fed conducting currency swaps and holding collateral from countries whose currencies will be worth nothing in the event the swap goes bad which makes the collateral a facade. You have the government as the major market base, or about to be, for many of the aspects of the collateral they hold, which overstates whats its worth in a market sale. And the real money the government has guaranteed is much higher than the 12 trillion or whatever has explicitly been detailed. You had the g20 say they would not let any systemtic institutions fail. How large is that contingent liability? What about all the bond and derivative holders we know are gonna be protected in general? What about all the borrowing done under the fdic guaranteed liquidity facillity? That private borrowing from deeply troubled firms, fully backstopped by the government, should add something to their liabilities. What about the back stops we know are gonna keep flowing to the IMF and the like? There should even be more sovereign bailout commitments added which are near certain implied liabilities. I mean this can go on and when you add it all up its almost hard to overshoot how deep the government is in trouble and how bad their liabilities really look, especially compared to their current stated levels. Accrued accounting would change things drastically too.
04-06-2009
, 12:50 PM
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,347
================================================== =========
--- Amounts (Billions)---
Limit Current
================================================== =========
Total $12,798.14 $4,169.71
-----------------------------------------------------------
Federal Reserve Total $7,765.64 $1,678.71
Primary Credit Discount $110.74 $61.31
Secondary Credit $0.19 $1.00
Primary dealer and others $147.00 $20.18
ABCP Liquidity $152.11 $6.85
AIG Credit $60.00 $43.19
Net Portfolio CP Funding $1,800.00 $241.31
Maiden Lane (Bear Stearns) $29.50 $28.82
Maiden Lane II (AIG) $22.50 $18.54
Maiden Lane III (AIG) $30.00 $24.04
Term Securities Lending $250.00 $88.55
Term Auction Facility $900.00 $468.59
Securities lending overnight $10.00 $4.41
Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility $900.00 $4.71
Currency Swaps/Other Assets $606.00 $377.87
MMIFF $540.00 $0.00
GSE Debt Purchases $600.00 $50.39
GSE Mortgage-Backed Securities $1,000.00 $236.16
Citigroup Bailout Fed Portion $220.40 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $87.20 $0.00
Commitment to Buy Treasuries $300.00 $7.50
-----------------------------------------------------------
FDIC Total $2,038.50 $357.50
Public-Private Investment* $500.00 0.00
FDIC Liquidity Guarantees $1,400.00 $316.50
GE $126.00 $41.00
Citigroup Bailout FDIC $10.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout FDIC $2.50 $0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
Treasury Total $2,694.00 $1,833.50
TARP $700.00 $599.50
Tax Break for Banks $29.00 $29.00
Stimulus Package (Bush) $168.00 $168.00
Stimulus II (Obama) $787.00 $787.00
Treasury Exchange Stabilization $50.00 $50.00
Student Loan Purchases $60.00 $0.00
Support for Fannie/Freddie $400.00 $200.00
Line of Credit for FDIC* $500.00 $0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
HUD Total $300.00 $300.00
Hope for Homeowners FHA $300.00 $300.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
This is the line by line breakout.
I dont have the time nor the patience to discuss each line in detail especially when I know you find it crazy that they could actually make money on any of this or be able to remove excess liquidity so I'll spare myself a headache and leave it at this.
--- Amounts (Billions)---
Limit Current
================================================== =========
Total $12,798.14 $4,169.71
-----------------------------------------------------------
Federal Reserve Total $7,765.64 $1,678.71
Primary Credit Discount $110.74 $61.31
Secondary Credit $0.19 $1.00
Primary dealer and others $147.00 $20.18
ABCP Liquidity $152.11 $6.85
AIG Credit $60.00 $43.19
Net Portfolio CP Funding $1,800.00 $241.31
Maiden Lane (Bear Stearns) $29.50 $28.82
Maiden Lane II (AIG) $22.50 $18.54
Maiden Lane III (AIG) $30.00 $24.04
Term Securities Lending $250.00 $88.55
Term Auction Facility $900.00 $468.59
Securities lending overnight $10.00 $4.41
Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility $900.00 $4.71
Currency Swaps/Other Assets $606.00 $377.87
MMIFF $540.00 $0.00
GSE Debt Purchases $600.00 $50.39
GSE Mortgage-Backed Securities $1,000.00 $236.16
Citigroup Bailout Fed Portion $220.40 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $87.20 $0.00
Commitment to Buy Treasuries $300.00 $7.50
-----------------------------------------------------------
FDIC Total $2,038.50 $357.50
Public-Private Investment* $500.00 0.00
FDIC Liquidity Guarantees $1,400.00 $316.50
GE $126.00 $41.00
Citigroup Bailout FDIC $10.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout FDIC $2.50 $0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
Treasury Total $2,694.00 $1,833.50
TARP $700.00 $599.50
Tax Break for Banks $29.00 $29.00
Stimulus Package (Bush) $168.00 $168.00
Stimulus II (Obama) $787.00 $787.00
Treasury Exchange Stabilization $50.00 $50.00
Student Loan Purchases $60.00 $0.00
Support for Fannie/Freddie $400.00 $200.00
Line of Credit for FDIC* $500.00 $0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
HUD Total $300.00 $300.00
Hope for Homeowners FHA $300.00 $300.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
This is the line by line breakout.
I dont have the time nor the patience to discuss each line in detail especially when I know you find it crazy that they could actually make money on any of this or be able to remove excess liquidity so I'll spare myself a headache and leave it at this.
Last edited by Yowserrrs; 04-06-2009 at 01:03 PM.
04-06-2009
, 12:50 PM
I feel so bad for the people who are actually listening and acting on the advice inf0 is providing.
you deserve what you get.
he is betting on armageddon, essentially a collapse of civilized society.
you can bet on this, however you should be aware that this only happens once. meaning you will be wrong everytime except once. when you are actually right life won't be awesome because you own some shiny metal.
i also love his seed, food, water concepts. they are a joke.
basically the only thing i agree with is the gun/ammo purchase, but this is for different reasons.
hey inf0, how is your great hyperinflation thesis playing out? when is that coming again? perhaps you will be correct if we give you a timeframe of 100 years. the sad part is I don't even think you realize what you are forecasting with your hyperinflation call or what would even cause that result.
we are in the midst of the greatest deflationary collpase since the great depression. i'm pretty sure there wasn't hyperinflation during the GD.
instead of polluting this forum with your bs and nonsense theories please give us your analysis of what this chart means.
have a nice day!
P.S. Your comment about being delusional that gold will be in the 600s soon....i guess you forgot it was there only 5 months ago.
you deserve what you get.
he is betting on armageddon, essentially a collapse of civilized society.
you can bet on this, however you should be aware that this only happens once. meaning you will be wrong everytime except once. when you are actually right life won't be awesome because you own some shiny metal.
i also love his seed, food, water concepts. they are a joke.
basically the only thing i agree with is the gun/ammo purchase, but this is for different reasons.
hey inf0, how is your great hyperinflation thesis playing out? when is that coming again? perhaps you will be correct if we give you a timeframe of 100 years. the sad part is I don't even think you realize what you are forecasting with your hyperinflation call or what would even cause that result.
we are in the midst of the greatest deflationary collpase since the great depression. i'm pretty sure there wasn't hyperinflation during the GD.
instead of polluting this forum with your bs and nonsense theories please give us your analysis of what this chart means.
have a nice day!
P.S. Your comment about being delusional that gold will be in the 600s soon....i guess you forgot it was there only 5 months ago.

04-06-2009
, 01:03 PM
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,740
Quote:
Zygote, I know you find it crazy that they could actually make money on any of this and be able to remove excess liquidity so I'll spare myself a headache and leave it at this.
04-06-2009
, 01:05 PM
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,347
Odds for Q4 GDP going positive are down to 2:1. I guess you should hit the bid.
I'm all ears for any prop bet youd like, but after the sh*t show last time, its on you to put out everything.
04-06-2009
, 01:16 PM
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,740
why do you think the odds are fair with an implied 66% probability of the markets being negative. The odds should be even better than this for me now. The whole consensus as ive seen, unless you have evidence to the contrary, estimates positive q4. i think a straight bet is appropriate now.
04-06-2009
, 01:23 PM
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,347
Quote:
why do you think the odds are fair with an implied 66% probability of the markets being negative. The odds should be even better than this for me now. The whole consensus as ive seen, unless you have evidence to the contrary, estimates positive q4. i think a straight bet is appropriate now.
Funny how youre consistently willing to dismiss the Fed but of course when it helps your case you take their predictions as 'consensus'
I never told you what I estimate as fair value. I dont know why youre assuming anything.
Lets not discuss this here anymore. I dont want to clutter up another thread when I know it isnt going anywhere. You can PM me if you want.
Last edited by Yowserrrs; 04-06-2009 at 01:29 PM.
04-06-2009
, 01:29 PM
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,740
most fear spreads are near or at their recent lows. The equity rally is pricing earnings that cant be sustained if q4 gdp really is negative. The treasury secretary and fed chairman have called for q4 growth. Tips have rallied and other signs of successful reflation are emerging. Actions via the G20 and other major pushes and details have eased many systemics concerns. More than a couple hundred billion in stimulus money will be spent domestically this year. etc. etc. etc.
edit: pm me your response. didnt see the comment but you're right.
04-06-2009
, 01:42 PM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 239
Quote:
A few questions Info,
Any thoughts/rationale for Gold's recent drop to about $870/oz (aside from it being a solid buying opportunity)?
Why the premium for American Gold Eagles vs. a Maple Leaf or a Krug...(is it because Gold Eagles are 22K and still a full oz of gold...thus being slightly more durable)?
Junk Silver coins seem like a slam dunk right now...not much premium over spot, plus they're highly divisible/easily used for barter...recommend you do a longer post on the subject since you're the expert obv. Don't have any yet, but if I can scrape together some scratch they look really attractive now IMO.
Any thoughts/rationale for Gold's recent drop to about $870/oz (aside from it being a solid buying opportunity)?
Why the premium for American Gold Eagles vs. a Maple Leaf or a Krug...(is it because Gold Eagles are 22K and still a full oz of gold...thus being slightly more durable)?
Junk Silver coins seem like a slam dunk right now...not much premium over spot, plus they're highly divisible/easily used for barter...recommend you do a longer post on the subject since you're the expert obv. Don't have any yet, but if I can scrape together some scratch they look really attractive now IMO.
I'm not too excited about gold right now, it's a bit overpriced compared to silver or platinum. Any physical assets >>> paper asset by so much though in the coming years.
Junk silver coins are going for a pretty significant premium over spot right now. If you have any junk silver coins you want to sell me at or very very near spot, I'd be happy to buy all that you have. If you have any silver shot, I am NOT INTERESTED
That said, even with the premiums, junk silver, and really any form of silver looks like a slam dunk imho.
I have written many articles worth of information in this thread... and I feel like I have repeated myself over and over again for people who don't have the patience to read through the entire thread. It's tough for me to focus sometimes and not end up with a 5 or 10 page article... but this seems like it could be a valuable resource for everyone to have so I will try to throw something together.
PS. I have put yows on ignore- i simply dont have time to argue the same thing with him over and over again... too much effort already been expended feeding the trolls. in most cases, the exact opposite of what he says is likely true- but any intelligent person already realizes this.
04-06-2009
, 01:59 PM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 239
Quote:
I feel so bad for the people who are actually listening and acting on the advice inf0 is providing.
of course you never get into WHY you disagree with my advice because... well that would take actual effort
you deserve what you get.
he is betting on armageddon, essentially a collapse of civilized society.
this is completely untrue and shows a substantial lack of understanding about my advice and my posts
you can bet on this, however you should be aware that this only happens once. meaning you will be wrong everytime except once. when you are actually right life won't be awesome because you own some shiny metal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperin...hyperinflation
yup, hyperinflation has only happened one time before in history, you are correct sir. The US dollar ( which is only 37 years old imo) has been around since the dinosaurs roamed the earth. IF this theoretical apocalypse DOES somehow occur, life MIGHT be A LOT MORE AWESOME if you own some seeds, water, food, gunsammo and a little bit of real money. Or you might just die... it's called survival of the fittest. I'm not saying you should go around spending your entire life preparing for civil rest, currency collapse, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc, but being AWARE of the POSSIBILITY and HEDGING AGAINST said possibility can be a very worthwhile endeavor, imho
i also love his seed, food, water concepts. they are a joke.
these seem like some of the best inflation hedges possible... these could be some of the most useful items to have in case of an engineered crisis or an emergency, etc. Go ask the people who got owned by hurricane katrina if they wish they had bought some extra generators, guns, food, water, seeds, etc??
basically the only thing i agree with is the gun/ammo purchase, but this is for different reasons.
why don't you explain your "different reasons" I am curious to know what they are?? Oh wait that would require effort, it's better to make your post as vague as possible
hey inf0, how is your great hyperinflation thesis playing out? when is that coming again? perhaps you will be correct if we give you a timeframe of 100 years. the sad part is I don't even think you realize what you are forecasting with your hyperinflation call or what would even cause that result.
Those who do not study history are bound to repeat it. We will see massive massive inflation within the next 1 year, hyperinflation might be 2-3 years out if we are very lucky. I have seen enough fiat currencies collapse, I have seen enough fiat currencies lose 20-30% of their value in one day. I don't hav ea crystal ball, I don't know when the house of cards will completely collapse. I don't know when the treasury bubble will burst. But when it does, if you aren't already prepared, it will be too late to do so.
we are in the midst of the greatest deflationary collpase since the great depression. i'm pretty sure there wasn't hyperinflation during the GD.
I completely disagree, i believe we are in the midst of the greatest hyperinflationary collapse we have ever seen. However, it's a good thing that precious metals do very very very well during hyperinflation and very very very well during deflation. This event is NOTHING LIKE the great depression... we are coming into the GREATEST DEPRESSION.
Even though there was not hyperinflation during the GD, you would have done very well holding gold. In 1933 when FDR confiscated all privately owned gold and made it illegal to own gold, you would have done very well if you hid the gold and did not turn it in to the banksters. Gold went f rom $20 an ounce to $35 an ounce, a gain of 75%!!! in less than one year... meanwhile the prices of many other goods were stagnant or decreased... You would have s urely done a very good job of preserving purchasing power during the GD with silver, seeds, and LT food storage.
instead of polluting this forum with your bs and nonsense theories please give us your analysis of what this chart means.
have a nice day!
P.S. Your comment about being delusional that gold will be in the 600s soon....i guess you forgot it was there only 5 months ago.
can you write me some options to buy gold @ 600$ over the next few years? We would need to escrow to make sure the gold is actually there for me to buy but if you're really that confident about gold tanking please take me up on this bet, it will be +EV for both of us...Also, WHY THE HELL AREN'T YOU SHORT GOLD RIGHT NOW?
of course you never get into WHY you disagree with my advice because... well that would take actual effort
you deserve what you get.
he is betting on armageddon, essentially a collapse of civilized society.
this is completely untrue and shows a substantial lack of understanding about my advice and my posts
you can bet on this, however you should be aware that this only happens once. meaning you will be wrong everytime except once. when you are actually right life won't be awesome because you own some shiny metal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperin...hyperinflation
yup, hyperinflation has only happened one time before in history, you are correct sir. The US dollar ( which is only 37 years old imo) has been around since the dinosaurs roamed the earth. IF this theoretical apocalypse DOES somehow occur, life MIGHT be A LOT MORE AWESOME if you own some seeds, water, food, gunsammo and a little bit of real money. Or you might just die... it's called survival of the fittest. I'm not saying you should go around spending your entire life preparing for civil rest, currency collapse, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc, but being AWARE of the POSSIBILITY and HEDGING AGAINST said possibility can be a very worthwhile endeavor, imho
i also love his seed, food, water concepts. they are a joke.
these seem like some of the best inflation hedges possible... these could be some of the most useful items to have in case of an engineered crisis or an emergency, etc. Go ask the people who got owned by hurricane katrina if they wish they had bought some extra generators, guns, food, water, seeds, etc??
basically the only thing i agree with is the gun/ammo purchase, but this is for different reasons.
why don't you explain your "different reasons" I am curious to know what they are?? Oh wait that would require effort, it's better to make your post as vague as possible
hey inf0, how is your great hyperinflation thesis playing out? when is that coming again? perhaps you will be correct if we give you a timeframe of 100 years. the sad part is I don't even think you realize what you are forecasting with your hyperinflation call or what would even cause that result.
Those who do not study history are bound to repeat it. We will see massive massive inflation within the next 1 year, hyperinflation might be 2-3 years out if we are very lucky. I have seen enough fiat currencies collapse, I have seen enough fiat currencies lose 20-30% of their value in one day. I don't hav ea crystal ball, I don't know when the house of cards will completely collapse. I don't know when the treasury bubble will burst. But when it does, if you aren't already prepared, it will be too late to do so.
we are in the midst of the greatest deflationary collpase since the great depression. i'm pretty sure there wasn't hyperinflation during the GD.
I completely disagree, i believe we are in the midst of the greatest hyperinflationary collapse we have ever seen. However, it's a good thing that precious metals do very very very well during hyperinflation and very very very well during deflation. This event is NOTHING LIKE the great depression... we are coming into the GREATEST DEPRESSION.
Even though there was not hyperinflation during the GD, you would have done very well holding gold. In 1933 when FDR confiscated all privately owned gold and made it illegal to own gold, you would have done very well if you hid the gold and did not turn it in to the banksters. Gold went f rom $20 an ounce to $35 an ounce, a gain of 75%!!! in less than one year... meanwhile the prices of many other goods were stagnant or decreased... You would have s urely done a very good job of preserving purchasing power during the GD with silver, seeds, and LT food storage.
instead of polluting this forum with your bs and nonsense theories please give us your analysis of what this chart means.
have a nice day!
P.S. Your comment about being delusional that gold will be in the 600s soon....i guess you forgot it was there only 5 months ago.
can you write me some options to buy gold @ 600$ over the next few years? We would need to escrow to make sure the gold is actually there for me to buy but if you're really that confident about gold tanking please take me up on this bet, it will be +EV for both of us...Also, WHY THE HELL AREN'T YOU SHORT GOLD RIGHT NOW?

Analyzing such a short term graph that only spans 70 years is sort of ridiculous... lets pull up a 500 or 1000 year graph of silver + gold prices or whatever it is you're trying to graph here...
my first impression is that this graph is horribly biased for a number of reasons , one of which is that it's put out by Morgan Stanley
I love how they split up the GSE debt... this might as well be govt debt as well since they have probably committed to backstop it...
So it looks like household debt has gone down as the consumer becomes tapped out, is not extended lines of credit, and because the consumers income is just so so low compared to what it was 70 years ago, they just can't really afford to take on much debt...
it looks like the government is going to take on more and more and more debt in order to pay interest on the older debt, and also to replace the US consumer and keep the economy sort of going ... for a couple more years... if we're lucky. The problem is that gov't is inefficient, prints up debt while offering no collateral for the debt... it looks like we've already eclipsed our previous level of 300% of GDP... and the party is just getting started... within 3 years we should be at the 700-900% of GDP debt level if not significantly higher...
also wanted to add just because spot hit down to $699 for a second doesn't mean it will ever be in the 600s again any time soon, nor does it mean that you could have ever picked up real gold for less than 750-800$.... also i'm not talented to pick the one day of the year when gold hits its absolute lowest point... if you are then that's great for you but I will just keep dollar cost aaverging into silver thx v much
Last edited by inf0wars; 04-06-2009 at 02:07 PM.
04-06-2009
, 02:01 PM
Quote:
Junk silver coins are going for a pretty significant premium over spot right now. If you have any junk silver coins you want to sell me at or very very near spot, I'd be happy to buy all that you have. If you have any silver shot, I am NOT INTERESTED
That said, even with the premiums, junk silver, and really any form of silver looks like a slam dunk imho.
.
Junk silver coins are going for a pretty significant premium over spot right now. If you have any junk silver coins you want to sell me at or very very near spot, I'd be happy to buy all that you have. If you have any silver shot, I am NOT INTERESTED
That said, even with the premiums, junk silver, and really any form of silver looks like a slam dunk imho.
.
Don't bust on Silver shot. I'm considering getting some silver shot and loading my own shotgun shells...best to be prepared for a worst case werewolf scenerio. I kid.
04-06-2009
, 02:03 PM
Quote:
It's pretty insane... i can't believe gold into 2k/ oz by now. People in this country prefer gold eagles over other coins for whatever reason... maybe because they're familiar... maybe because they're from OUR govt mint... maybe it has to do with supply and demand. I don't really know to be honest with you. I don't really believe it's because they're slightly more durable, but I suppose that could be a factor.
I'm not too excited about gold right now, it's a bit overpriced compared to silver or platinum. Any physical assets >>> paper asset by so much though in the coming years.
Junk silver coins are going for a pretty significant premium over spot right now. If you have any junk silver coins you want to sell me at or very very near spot, I'd be happy to buy all that you have. If you have any silver shot, I am NOT INTERESTED
That said, even with the premiums, junk silver, and really any form of silver looks like a slam dunk imho.
I have written many articles worth of information in this thread... and I feel like I have repeated myself over and over again for people who don't have the patience to read through the entire thread. It's tough for me to focus sometimes and not end up with a 5 or 10 page article... but this seems like it could be a valuable resource for everyone to have so I will try to throw something together.
PS. I have put yows on ignore- i simply dont have time to argue the same thing with him over and over again... too much effort already been expended feeding the trolls. in most cases, the exact opposite of what he says is likely true- but any intelligent person already realizes this.
I'm not too excited about gold right now, it's a bit overpriced compared to silver or platinum. Any physical assets >>> paper asset by so much though in the coming years.
Junk silver coins are going for a pretty significant premium over spot right now. If you have any junk silver coins you want to sell me at or very very near spot, I'd be happy to buy all that you have. If you have any silver shot, I am NOT INTERESTED
That said, even with the premiums, junk silver, and really any form of silver looks like a slam dunk imho.
I have written many articles worth of information in this thread... and I feel like I have repeated myself over and over again for people who don't have the patience to read through the entire thread. It's tough for me to focus sometimes and not end up with a 5 or 10 page article... but this seems like it could be a valuable resource for everyone to have so I will try to throw something together.
PS. I have put yows on ignore- i simply dont have time to argue the same thing with him over and over again... too much effort already been expended feeding the trolls. in most cases, the exact opposite of what he says is likely true- but any intelligent person already realizes this.
your response of " i can't see anything" pretty much demonstrates your lack of understanding of this type of analysis. especially since you're betting SO MUCH on such a tiny portion of the distribution of possible future outcomes.
that just doesn't make sense to me and you should, almost REGARDLESS of your belief, be able to say you may be wrong (no matter what you think, this is not 1+1=2) and be invested (or at least considering such investment) across the distribution of events (based on your conviction of course...it seems you are doing this to a very small degree...i.e. your conviction is 100% on a super tiny portion of the overall distribution).
regardless of the hate you get or how you feel you repeat yourself etc., you fail at the most basic concepts of investment analysis. i'm sorry to have to tell you this and i know it is useless as your response/action/thought of course will remain identical irrespective of this post. i just want to inform those that may be following your advice with the conviction and purpose that you appear to recommend. to be clear, i of course some silver (and / or gold, platinum etc...i.e. precious metals) is an important component of a given portfolio. the illiquidity of physical metals though + premium of it make me recommend "ponzi scheme" versions where you will be exposed to the price movements of the underlying metla but not be able to hold it in your hand (since there are more than 1 claimant per oz of metal).
if you want some protection for that event, then sure some physical silver/gold etc. can be good. but anything above 5-10% is ludacris imo. especially with risk premiums so large right now across even some long term strong, well positioned, productive companies (and even more especially in the fixed income arena).
i don't plan on responding to your response since i can predict what it will very likely be and this post isn't to convince you or engage you but to protect those who may follow your advice as it seems you intend them to.
best of luck,
Barron
04-06-2009
, 02:14 PM
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 281
It seems the markets are becoming less fearful of either hyperinflation or a deflationary catastrophy, and I do not think mildly deflationary (or mildly inflationary) economic stagnation is good for gold. Therefore, I am interested in taking a short position to hedge my long term gold bullion and (to a lesser degree) mining stock fund holdings. Would DZZ or DGZ be reasonable for this purpose? Would a 2 to 1 ratio of gold bullion value to DZZ (double short ETN) come close to approximating a 100% hedge (i.e., market neutral position)?
Would short selling GLD (or something else) be a much better alternative? If so, I would have a learning curve to climb since I know little about short selling.
Would short selling GLD (or something else) be a much better alternative? If so, I would have a learning curve to climb since I know little about short selling.
04-06-2009
, 02:26 PM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 239
Quote:
yes it is pretty funny how we can go over the same things over and over again... i gave up a while ago after you failed to answer simple questions about what drives your economic hypothesis and what would cause you to presume it wrong.
i'm sorry about that I really do feel badly about not responding to you... it's very hard for me to keep track of everything.. this is the one thread i actually will keep coming back to so if you want to repost some of your questions etc here I will try my best to answer them. As you've said, you probably know what my answers are going to be.
your response of " i can't see anything" pretty much demonstrates your lack of understanding of this type of analysis. especially since you're betting SO MUCH on such a tiny portion of the distribution of possible future outcomes.
that just doesn't make sense to me and you should, almost REGARDLESS of your belief, be able to say you may be wrong (no matter what you think, this is not 1+1=2) and be invested (or at least considering such investment) across the distribution of events (based on your conviction of course...it seems you are doing this to a very small degree...i.e. your conviction is 100% on a super tiny portion of the overall distribution).
You're right about this... I feel like I am making money hand over fist and have been taking advantage of some great opportunities and continue to take advantage of them. In fact, I am buying more silver right now as I make this post... but I realize silver could go lower... I realize that seeds, ammo, farmland, food, water, etc could all go down 50% in price or 90% in price... I realize silver could go down to $1 an ounce. All I can say is that I will be buying all the way down... I am biased about these investments because I think they have nearly unlimited upside potential, because I think the dollar is going to be in serious trouble in the next few years. I am also biased because I GET SUCH GREAT SATISFACTION OUT OF OWNING THESE ITEMS
To me there is nothing better than making your own solar power. There is nothing better than eating produce you ahve grown yourself. There is nothing better than owning firearms and being able to hunt game, provide for my family, and protect myself against tyrants. There is nothing better than making your own colloidal silver and other medications. There is nothing better than helping your friend overcome cancer with these medications...
I sleep better at night knowing I have money that has been used as money for 6000 years instead of having money that has rapidly depreciated in value over its 37 year lifespan. There is nothing I enjoy more than reading great books and learning about plants and nature and medicine and helping others and being self sufficient and not relying on shaky government systems.
regardless of the hate you get or how you feel you repeat yourself etc., you fail at the most basic concepts of investment analysis. i'm sorry to have to tell you this and i know it is useless as your response/action/thought of course will remain identical irrespective of this post. i just want to inform those that may be following your advice with the conviction and purpose that you appear to recommend. to be clear, i of course some silver (and / or gold, platinum etc...i.e. precious metals) is an important component of a given portfolio. the illiquidity of physical metals though + premium of it make me recommend "ponzi scheme" versions where you will be exposed to the price movements of the underlying metla but not be able to hold it in your hand (since there are more than 1 claimant per oz of metal).
I'm sorry that I have failed at your criteria for investment analysis, everyone has their own methods of analyzing investments and I think it's unfair to there is only one or only a few different invesment analysis methods that work. We can all be successful using our own investment analysis techniques. It's OKAY that we disagree- it would be boring if we all thought the same thing. I think the metal ETFs are a ponzi scheme, I think if the bank who runs the fund goes bankrupt that the ETF holders will end up holding the bag. I will not even begin to rehash all of the significant risks associated with holding the ETF. I also think there are a lot of risks and responsibilities associated with holding the real money as well. I think the risks are significantly greater with the ETF, especially if yo uare holding for the long term. I see the metals as a hedge in case of hyperinflation, terrorist attacks, natural disasters, concentration camps, etc, so personally speaking I want to be able to have easy access to my metals. Not being able to ever take delivery of them is not attractive to me- what if the premiums between the two grrow even larger? I can see why these ETFs could be very useful for trading, but recommending someone hold them for the long term is criminal imo
Personally I like to invest in simple things, because I am a simple person. I like to invest in things I can understand. I like to invest in things I can hold in my hand. I like to invest in things that I believe will hold their value forever and I can pass on to my children. Another thing we disagree on is liquidity- i believe that physical gold and silver coins are very very liquid assets. You may believe that real estate is a very liquid asset, and that gold and silver coins are very illiquid assets - that is OK, you are entitled to your opinion... i'm not sure what to say besides I disagree, respectfully.
if you want some protection for that event, then sure some physical silver/gold etc. can be good. but anything above 5-10% is ludacris imo. especially with risk premiums so large right now across even some long term strong, well positioned, productive companies (and even more especially in the fixed income arena).
It's hard to understand the logic behind ... oh ya silver / gold is a good investment!!!!... Buuuuut only 5-10%, anything more would be CRAZY. buuuuuut... its a good investment.... see if i find a really good idea I am greedy with it. I would have a few very very specific focused investments that I really feel like I know and understand quite well. Some people would rather have 20 or 50 different investments each of which is 2-3% of their net worth. I would rather have 4 or 5 different investments which may be 7-20% of my net worth each. Everyone has a different style, and as long as it works for you, that's great.
i don't plan on responding to your response since i can predict what it will very likely be and this post isn't to convince you or engage you but to protect those who may follow your advice as it seems you intend them to.
best of luck,
Barron
i'm sorry about that I really do feel badly about not responding to you... it's very hard for me to keep track of everything.. this is the one thread i actually will keep coming back to so if you want to repost some of your questions etc here I will try my best to answer them. As you've said, you probably know what my answers are going to be.
your response of " i can't see anything" pretty much demonstrates your lack of understanding of this type of analysis. especially since you're betting SO MUCH on such a tiny portion of the distribution of possible future outcomes.
that just doesn't make sense to me and you should, almost REGARDLESS of your belief, be able to say you may be wrong (no matter what you think, this is not 1+1=2) and be invested (or at least considering such investment) across the distribution of events (based on your conviction of course...it seems you are doing this to a very small degree...i.e. your conviction is 100% on a super tiny portion of the overall distribution).
You're right about this... I feel like I am making money hand over fist and have been taking advantage of some great opportunities and continue to take advantage of them. In fact, I am buying more silver right now as I make this post... but I realize silver could go lower... I realize that seeds, ammo, farmland, food, water, etc could all go down 50% in price or 90% in price... I realize silver could go down to $1 an ounce. All I can say is that I will be buying all the way down... I am biased about these investments because I think they have nearly unlimited upside potential, because I think the dollar is going to be in serious trouble in the next few years. I am also biased because I GET SUCH GREAT SATISFACTION OUT OF OWNING THESE ITEMS
To me there is nothing better than making your own solar power. There is nothing better than eating produce you ahve grown yourself. There is nothing better than owning firearms and being able to hunt game, provide for my family, and protect myself against tyrants. There is nothing better than making your own colloidal silver and other medications. There is nothing better than helping your friend overcome cancer with these medications...
I sleep better at night knowing I have money that has been used as money for 6000 years instead of having money that has rapidly depreciated in value over its 37 year lifespan. There is nothing I enjoy more than reading great books and learning about plants and nature and medicine and helping others and being self sufficient and not relying on shaky government systems.
regardless of the hate you get or how you feel you repeat yourself etc., you fail at the most basic concepts of investment analysis. i'm sorry to have to tell you this and i know it is useless as your response/action/thought of course will remain identical irrespective of this post. i just want to inform those that may be following your advice with the conviction and purpose that you appear to recommend. to be clear, i of course some silver (and / or gold, platinum etc...i.e. precious metals) is an important component of a given portfolio. the illiquidity of physical metals though + premium of it make me recommend "ponzi scheme" versions where you will be exposed to the price movements of the underlying metla but not be able to hold it in your hand (since there are more than 1 claimant per oz of metal).
I'm sorry that I have failed at your criteria for investment analysis, everyone has their own methods of analyzing investments and I think it's unfair to there is only one or only a few different invesment analysis methods that work. We can all be successful using our own investment analysis techniques. It's OKAY that we disagree- it would be boring if we all thought the same thing. I think the metal ETFs are a ponzi scheme, I think if the bank who runs the fund goes bankrupt that the ETF holders will end up holding the bag. I will not even begin to rehash all of the significant risks associated with holding the ETF. I also think there are a lot of risks and responsibilities associated with holding the real money as well. I think the risks are significantly greater with the ETF, especially if yo uare holding for the long term. I see the metals as a hedge in case of hyperinflation, terrorist attacks, natural disasters, concentration camps, etc, so personally speaking I want to be able to have easy access to my metals. Not being able to ever take delivery of them is not attractive to me- what if the premiums between the two grrow even larger? I can see why these ETFs could be very useful for trading, but recommending someone hold them for the long term is criminal imo
Personally I like to invest in simple things, because I am a simple person. I like to invest in things I can understand. I like to invest in things I can hold in my hand. I like to invest in things that I believe will hold their value forever and I can pass on to my children. Another thing we disagree on is liquidity- i believe that physical gold and silver coins are very very liquid assets. You may believe that real estate is a very liquid asset, and that gold and silver coins are very illiquid assets - that is OK, you are entitled to your opinion... i'm not sure what to say besides I disagree, respectfully.
if you want some protection for that event, then sure some physical silver/gold etc. can be good. but anything above 5-10% is ludacris imo. especially with risk premiums so large right now across even some long term strong, well positioned, productive companies (and even more especially in the fixed income arena).
It's hard to understand the logic behind ... oh ya silver / gold is a good investment!!!!... Buuuuut only 5-10%, anything more would be CRAZY. buuuuuut... its a good investment.... see if i find a really good idea I am greedy with it. I would have a few very very specific focused investments that I really feel like I know and understand quite well. Some people would rather have 20 or 50 different investments each of which is 2-3% of their net worth. I would rather have 4 or 5 different investments which may be 7-20% of my net worth each. Everyone has a different style, and as long as it works for you, that's great.
i don't plan on responding to your response since i can predict what it will very likely be and this post isn't to convince you or engage you but to protect those who may follow your advice as it seems you intend them to.
best of luck,
Barron
04-06-2009
, 02:44 PM
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,347
Its obvious that this is an attention getting mechanism and its obvious that he has a natural bias and inclination to it. I suspect he has throughout his life consistenly underperformed in school/work and faced social rejection numerous times and thus he is attracted to the vindication of a systemic collapse. His intent in posting is self serving to feed his own esteem.
04-06-2009
, 03:08 PM
Quote:
The premium doesn't look too bad. APMEX has a $1000 face value junk silver bag, approx 715 troy oz, for $10,875 or about $15.21/oz. Spot at the time of this writing is about $12.22...so you're looking at a $3 premium or so. Not too bad considering Silver Eagles remain in the $17 range. Junk Silver doesn't approach the low overspot premiums of say, 100 oz silver bars (usually only a buck or so over spot) but the divisibility of junk silver (and not having to worry about shaving/cutting bars) can't be touched.
Don't bust on Silver shot. I'm considering getting some silver shot and loading my own shotgun shells...best to be prepared for a worst case werewolf scenerio. I kid.
Don't bust on Silver shot. I'm considering getting some silver shot and loading my own shotgun shells...best to be prepared for a worst case werewolf scenerio. I kid.
Buffalo rounds can be had for $1.29 over spot when in quantity, and you can get Phils, Maple Leaves, and Eagles for about $3. The bars can get pretty cheap--a buck and some change voer spot as well if you get 10oz bars or so. I looked at the junk silver to buy, but I'd rather have some nice new shiny things to admire than a heap of scratched old coins.
I'm a noob though, and not interested in buying any additonal PM's at this time, so what do I know?
04-06-2009
, 04:46 PM
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 5,740
Quote:
I try to imagine how I would act if I shared his beliefs. Posting endlessly of the collapse of fiat money, war, famine on the business subforum of a poker site that has less than 100 regulars would definitely not be on my list of things to do.
Its obvious that this is an attention getting mechanism and its obvious that he has a natural bias and inclination to it. I suspect he has throughout his life consistenly underperformed in school/work and faced social rejection numerous times and thus he is attracted to the vindication of a systemic collapse. His intent in posting is self serving to feed his own esteem.
Its obvious that this is an attention getting mechanism and its obvious that he has a natural bias and inclination to it. I suspect he has throughout his life consistenly underperformed in school/work and faced social rejection numerous times and thus he is attracted to the vindication of a systemic collapse. His intent in posting is self serving to feed his own esteem.
04-07-2009
, 08:43 AM
hits the economist...which typically means fall in price lol
http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ry_id=13415838
http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ry_id=13415838
04-07-2009
, 11:18 AM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 239
lolz wow
I don't really watch TV but the transformation of the content on faux news over the past year has been amazing to say the least- but completely expected at the same time for obvious reasons
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZMdA06xbcU
I don't really watch TV but the transformation of the content on faux news over the past year has been amazing to say the least- but completely expected at the same time for obvious reasons
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZMdA06xbcU
Last edited by inf0wars; 04-07-2009 at 11:31 AM.
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