Something that we can tell from the last ten years is a terrible idea.

Oh, wait.



Idiot.

http://www.pokertableratings.com/abs...arch/pujolsnet

if you can't beat .50/1 6max NL on UB, you shouldn't call others stupid, and you shouldn't be nearly as certain about anything money/logic/probability related as you are about metals in this thread

Easy albert, you didn't smell the sarcasm. The current gold bull market is well founded but almost no one with access to the markets should hold PMs too long. I see $2000/oz next year at this time. The greatest bull market for equities awaits us.

maybe global equities... but probably not US equities. i think gold will continue to do better than stocks for probably at least another 5 years. But stocks pay dividends and you obviously shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket... so owning gold, global equities and various foreign currencies/bonds is the best and safest way to go.

Not being able to beat .5/1nl doesn't mean somebody isn't intelligent -- as implied in this quote. Anyway, bringing it up as though it means something in a completely unrelated thread is pretty lol.

Gold is in a mania state right now. It has nothing to do with fundamentals. Copper/Steel/Aluminum more reflect the dollar. Why isn't Geithner in jail already, theft? From dot-bomb, to nanotech, to gold.

just because it's going up... doesn't mean it's a mania. i still think that gold is very under-owned and very under-valued. we will still have big pullbacks, but gold is going to go much higher as a result of the fundamentals

Actually when silver was a hot item and then crashed along with all the other commodities in the 1980's, people were saying if you had your money in commodities you were an idiot.

I think it depends on each individual investor what he or she wishes to put into metals or commodities or stocks and bonds. Telling people they are idiots because they don't share your view of investing is not very good of you to imply, because each investor has their own strategies for investing. You might buy gold at the top end, then when speculators dump it on a profit taking binge or if the dollar inflates, which it will eventually, then you could lose a fortune if you are invested in it too much. Never buy at a high, always buy low - sell high. Make sure you have percentages in your strategy, like 10 percent in this, 5 percent in that, etc. Never buy in or go all in on one thing no matter how good it seems to be.


Granted its always hard to know when to invest, but people should always feel they are not idiots for their investment decisions, because they will surely leave the markets after suffering from too many losses and feeling like or being told by people such as yourself that they are idiots...

I do understand where you are coming from on the post, I myself feel like an idiot when I could have bought spot gold at 300.00 or when I could have bought WEN at 5.00 or even MAT at 7.00. Problem is we all have to invest the way we feel comfortable, not everyone is the genius that is you.

Just remember, you can't "EAT" gold. Next war is not going to be over metals, it's going to be over food.

When the crap hits the fan in the world, Gold will drop like a rock, along with everything else, but food will be the prime motivation behind life itself on this planet in the coming hard times. Remember, over 1.2 billion people are starving right now on this planet. And that figure is climbing..So food is the next war, not metals.

Gold is speculative, always has been, it's a safe zone for when you need to pull out of other markets, but as soon as other markets rebound, metals always take a dump. And if the next war is over food, well, you can't eat the gold, so all it does is sit there and look pretty.

Selling it? Selling it for what in trade? Paper or fiat currencies? Nope, not going to happen. FOOD, think FOOD, that's where the action will be. Next will be water, and then next to that will be air. Those are the hot commodities of the future. Invest now in that and you just might make a killing down the road a piece..

how would you suggest investing in food and water?

agriculture etf?

Picet Water? (only fund i've found)

many thanks

john

LOL, so if food is the next big war, should I invest in Potash and all the AGS? I do think gold is starting to finally reach bubble territory, with another $100 -$200 to go. Then like with oil will crap its bed and go down to the $700 area and go up and down like everything else.

MOO

Some of these commodities have only now started to appear. I can tell you that in Honduras, the oligarchy or elites are trying to privatize water so they can profit off of it. Everywhere you look when you are traveling, one of the first issues that comes up is the water. Is it safe people will ask? The next question is always where can I buy some, and then how long will it last. Take Dubai, the water is the one thing they are short of, so they desalinize it from the sea and truck it in..As it has been reported they only have enough water there for a weeks worth of consumption.

On water alone, especially in third world countries, which the USA will eventually become, water will be a resource that everyone will buy. Therefore a water commodity will eventually become the norm.

Food. Over 1.2 billion people are starving at this very moment. If you look at those figures now and see that we have aprox 7 billion on the planet today, and that 1.2 billion of those 7 billion are living in starving conditions, then you can see that food is a commodity that is in demand. That figure is also a climbing scale. If you extrapolate that data down the road you can see that over time more people will be starving, and less people will be produced over time. And as this planet can only handle just so many people, therefore even if we start reduction operations on people, or we start viruses that wipe out large swaths of people so we can will endure longer, we will still need more food produced, yet at the same time starving people will still increase.

If you end up in this starving category ever in your lives or actually see people living at trash dumps to gain food, you can easily see how fights often break out over who has the better food from the trash. Human nature will eventually take over when food becomes scarce, that is why eventually the next war will be over food. A food commodity will eventually be the way to invest. Right now we have some of that on the exchanges, one can buy certain foods or invest in them, coffee, sugar, corn, beef, etc, but not all are life sustaining foods or good foods, therefore I believe more foods will be added to that list, and eventually food investments will be the higher producing ones for profits. Because as I said earlier, you can't eat metals, and if you had a metal in front of you and a food product in front of you, and had an either or deal, and were very hungry, which would you take? The metal or the food?

Some would say they would sell the metal to get the food, but at what point would the metal be of less value because the hungrier you are, the less that metal has in value when the person you sell to knows that food is your ultimate goal? So when they offer you less for it, because you have become more hungry, eventually you will take whatever is offered in order to eat.

Food therefore is a problem, and as I said, when hard times come, food will be what everyone thinks about first, not last. You may have it good now, but eventually we will all fight over it.

Air- Air is becoming worse as time goes on. If we solve the air issues then that will be something to behold, but so far no one cares enough about air to solve it, that is until that air becomes un-breathable. Try Beijing, try LA, and know that as air becomes worse we will start finding a way to sell it, and as soon as we do there will be a huge market for clean air. Maybe first it will be in your home, then next your car, then next your office. Air will eventually be a commodity as long as the current air we breath continues to get worse.

Think it through and you will see what I am saying.


If you can't eat, then you will fight for the right to eat.

If you can't drink, then you will fight for the opportunity to drink.

If you can't breath then you will fight for right to breath the air.

These are basic commodities for sure, but they're commodities in which will be the wave of the future. You may see metals now as a hedge, and to some degree it is, but in a way when you look at future trends, you will see that metals are pretty much worthless when it comes to food, water, and air, which are all commodities on a short list that are declining over time, and becoming more valuable as we trend out towards the future.

Ask me when you are starving...However I elucidated on some of that in my previous post. Maybe that will give you some ideas.

As for the bubble on gold, everything eventually collapses, nothing is sustainable over the long term. Plus, everyone needs that bubble now, but when the bubble bursts, everyone will run for cover. It is only a matter of time before it does, as people see metals decrease in real HUMAN value over time, that value will decrease as people cannot afford to get in during the highs. The bubble will eventually come down as speculators realize that everyone is full in and there is nothing left in which to support it. Thus profit taking will occur..How far it goes down is anyone's guess.

ya... agriculture ETF is probably the best way to go. the other way to play it is to buy stocks that are in the agriculture sector. so you can buy stocks in the big farming companies or buy stocks in companies that sell supplies to farms like fertilizer companies

i don't know anything about investing in water... but i would assume that you just buy stock in water utilities or something

Extremely good points...


Good post +2

If I was going to invest in food, I would invest in a family orange grove. I would never invest in an ag ETF.

lol... did you actually just PTR someone in BFI?

If you don't hold it, you don't own it. Do you think an ETF is going to deliver food or water to you if things get bad??? ROFL

If you're going to invest in ponzi schemes, you might as well just set your money on fire.

Let me repeat this, it should be common sense, but apparently it's a very difficult concept to understand:
If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

thanks for the comments about investing in agriculture.

im keen to avoid etfs and would rather go for shares. I'm planning to go for:

http://www.h-l.co.uk/funds/fund-disc...r-accumulation

and:

http://www.h-l.co.uk/funds/fund-disc...p-accumulation

does anyone prefer to do this, choosing a management fund to invest in rather than individual shares?

Is this kind of gimmick account really necessary?

I find the concept absurd as well. It is not practical to base all your investment decisions solely on worst case scenarios. And besides, holding things physically carries its own set of risks.

It's necessary because he was banned afaik.

Hey if you tried really really hard and you can't beat the softest small stakes game online why would you think you're smart enough to have strong unshakable opinions on finance?

I forget how I know this guy I think he made some epic hu deathmatch challenge to a student if mine, but ya I see pujolsnet and say omg that guy wow

I dunno maybe he does have a track record of perfect market timing and outstanding macro predictions and I just didn't get that memo.

But ya saying "if you don't own gold you're an idiot" is just lame.

And now this thread is about water wars and everyone starving. Guys that was in a James bond movie he is just an actor it's not real.

i think it's pretty crazy for people not to own any physical gold... espiecally if they have a lot of money. there are people who have hundreds of thousands of dollars in banks and invested in stocks... yet they refuse to go buy a few ounces of gold to keep in their house or stored in a safe place. i think people like this are pretty stupid... but i guess it's more just economic, political and historical ignorance.

that being said... anyone who cannot beat micro stakes online poker after playing for a long time... can't really be all that bright. eventually, a smart person will figure out how to play and become a winning player after they've played enough hands and put in some effort to improve their game.

but for me... i'm a winning poker player and i have a good investment track record also. i crush HUSNGs and i've been putting the profits that i save into gold and silver... ez $$$ IMO.

I bought some paper gold for the 1st time today. I see gold go up everyday and I think we are in the beginning stages of a bubble mentality. Peter Schiff still says buy. The gold bugs still say buy. More and more people are turning to Schiff and Paul. I will only hold it a month but, I think we are we going up everyday for awhile. Not really that high yet.