Also that article obviously is purposely looking for the worst possible predictions that Gerald Celente has EVER made in his life... and look what they come up with? Anyone who can make these kinds of predictions with reasonable accuracy 75% of the time should be well listened to and respected. Look at the talking heads on mainstream media who are right 10% of the time OR LESS. I don't worship this guy or anyone else but it is interesting to see their predictions.

Personally I LOVE how if the interviewer is asking really really stupid questions Gerald Celente will just ignore them and talk about what he thinks is important. To be honest I would rather have someone who focuses on the big picture and says what he thinks is important to know. It would be easy to waste an entire interview arguing about whether real unemployment #s right now are 2% or 4% or 8% or 15% etc, or whether real inflation #s right now are -5% or 0% or 5% or 10% or 15% or 20% or higher etc... you could easily waste every 10 minute interview u get arguing about whether the gov't has incentive to manipulate these numbers, whether they are accurate, how they used to be calc'd vs how they are calc'd today, etc.



edit : http://********/file/1417453

condensed version of IOUSA, the movie i was talking about w Wbuffet that makes some interesting charts, comments about SS system, medicare, etc. But misses the big picturecause of our problems of course such as poor education+ nutrition, federal reserve, many other factors

Just to be clear:

Your 1 yr taget is $25
Your 2 yr target is $35
Your 5 yr target is $250
Your 10 yr target is $10,000.

And no one ever said you were the only one with wacky predictions.
You just know even less than they do which is really saying something.

Mediate, come clean already. Dont you want credit for your predictions?

My gold predictions, guaranteed at least 50% of them will be correct.

1. Gold will open at $1000 or higher on Feb 18 on COMEX
2. Gold will open lower than $1000 on Feb 18 on COMEX

Rinse wash repeat with 200 other predictions, I Are An Genius Predictor!!!

Those are all somewhat reasonable targets, my 2 year target is not $35, that was just an example. I will reaffirm my 1 year target of $25, but I can't claim to predict 5 or 10 years out with any degree of accuracy. With that said, I think silver is going to A LOT and most fiat currencies are going to be worth HARDLY ANYTHING. I highly doubt that silver will be priced in US dollars in 10 years from now... we will not be using the US dollar in 10 years, that is a guarantee. I think your 2 year target of $35 is a little bit low, i'd be looking for more like $40-45 at the beginning of 2011. I think your 10 year target is extremely low. I think 250 in 5 years is reasonable, but that could end up very low too... it really depends... I can't predict exactly how much they're going to print or when we're really going to start seeing the hyperinflation. 10 years out, one ounce of silver could cost 100,000$ , or 100,000,000 or 10,000,000,000,000,000$ - i'm really not too sure. I am confident it will maintain and even slightly increase its purchasing power over the next 10 years.

Try to predict for me how much one loaf of bread will cost in zimbabwe dollars in 3 years from now- please I want to see your best guess. I have absolutely no idea what my answer to this question would be ( besides I have no ***** idea...) but I would love to hear your opinion about this matter.

The point is, its going to depend how many times and how many zeroes they chop off their currency.

What if the correct answer to my question is 134,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 zimbabwe dollars for a loaf of bread (obv this is an extremely low estimate for sake of example, as was the $35 silver in 2 yrs )

but they chop off 21 zeroes from their currency 2 weeks before we check to see if my prediction is correct... I am going to look like a dumbass because my guess will be way way off... however if I told you I believe a loaf of bread will cost 1/3 of an ounce of silver in 3 years in zimbabwe, while I might be off by 50 one way or the other ( ie it might cost 1/6 oz or 2/3 oz ) ... my prediction in metals is going to be much more accurate than my prediction in fiat.

Say you figure you need 400 gallons of gas to live off of for your retirement, and you expect to live for 10 years afer you retire, you need 4000 gallons of gas.

Do you want to save away 570 ounces of silver right now in hopes of paying for that gas 20 years down the line? Or do you want to save away 8,000$ in USD denominated 10 yr treasury notes yielding 3.5% in hopes of paying for that gas 20 years down the line?


Trying to forecast out how much something will cost in fiat currencies 5 or 10 years out is an exercise in futility- you will have much better results if you price things in real money.

Getting 50% of your very short term predictions correct is not impressive. If you could predict like Gerald Celente, you would be getting interviewed in mainstream news stations like he is. I'm not sure if you were just posting this to further show how stupid you are, or if you were trying to take another jab @ Celente. Either way, he focuses on predicting long term trends-- I would be much more interested in hearing some specific, long term, well thought out predictions that you have.

Obviously if I make a prediction that the stock market will go up 2% on a certain day and make the same prediction that the same stock is going to go down 2% on a certain day, one of my predictions has a good chance of being right. Can you show me predictions by Celente in which he 100% contradicts himself? IE, show me a newsletter where Celente says BUY SILVER and SELL SILVER in the same newsletter. That would be impressive. I realize lots of people do create many dummy accounts and lie and exaggerate about their results, but I have found Celente to be rather humble in this area especially considering what he has successfully predicted. Changing over to real money is the only way to completely void yourself of all of these ponzi schemes we are indoctrinated and almost forced into investing in...

Youre the best Mediate, though I guess its easy when you can just throw out whatever numbers come to mind.

New prop bet - You cant score above 1200 on the SAT. Lets arrange this.

Ok sure pm me your phone number I will be happy to discuss terms of this bet. I would be more than willing to fly to your location and you could even watch while I take the test. I could bet at least 500 oz of silver on this depending on the terms, possibly 1000. We can video tape the test too, etc


Also if you want to do a prop bet that includes SAT tests I have ALREADY TAKEN I would be willing to bet at least 7,000 ounces of silver, probably much higher. Please pm me to work out this bet, I can give you my phone # or u can give me mine. I'm very interested in this bet. If we make a bet, I guarantee you I will give you 1000$ cash no questions asked just for making a bet with me. You get to keep the money whether you win or lose.

Also I am willing to make this bet in US dollars assuming we complete the bet in the next 2-3 weeks. Also I am willing to bet in pretty much anything you want that is valuable( think lightweight portable store of value though, we're not betting like 500 pounds of food- 500 pounds of silver is fine though. Pm me for details.

--
on another much less important subject, if the fed can print however many 000,000,000 #s they want, then I should at least be allowed to throw numbers out there right?

Yows,

You do realize the modern test is out of 2400 with a 600 pt floor.

as I'm watching this:

- retail 2008 figures down X%: those are down from 2007 'record' levels. please use more intelligent comparisons imo. then to presage tons of bankruptcies from that is questionable. that said, the conclusion, despite using the shoddy comparison, is quite viable. i think we'll see some SURPRISING bankruptcies in the next 2 years. i don't think they'll be as pervasive as he does though.
- financial bankruptcies: who will rent the space? this is actually a good point even though is it horribly said (see above). commercial real estate will probably do worse and he gave me a great idea for a trade: long ITB, short IYR.
- advertising already has the greatest collapse in spending priced in. there may be a few bankruptcies butNOTHING compared to banks that will fold. some realistic estimates put that # in the high triple, low quadruple digits for banks.
an example of advertising 'priced in' (simple and maybe not entirely representitive b/c i couldn't find an index...help here would be great :-) ) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LAMR
- tax revolt: taxes rising while people losing jobs. property & school taxes will 'go' first. this is ******ed imo. if anybody wants to bet on this, i'll GLADLY take ALL action. the decrease in federal taxes will likely reduce tons of pressure here and given the vast mobility across states and between / among them, if the public had a choice between "moving" and "revolting" i think it is ingrained in their nature almost to move. further, when a state/county etc. is on the brink of bankruptcy and needs to tax (california), it will be obvious to the residents and i can say with a strong conviction that their reaction will not be to revolt (Though i DO think we'll likely see some county bankruptcies).
- obama: man of change (nice music)...NO CHANGE at all. i'm a fan of this portion...there is NO real change here w/ obama.
- gold: he is saying to outright buy gold and i can't hate the conclusion. we purchased gold early last week (via ETF GLD) with stops at 70 and 115 (avg price $88.079). def want to hold this and those stops will likely move as new information comes to the fore. i do think that there is enough info out there to warrant a significant allocation to the 'shiny metal' though i'm no gold bug (about 5% of our port in risk space is in GLD). between the guy above, rogers, and my former employer dalio, and the possibility of greater risk and flight to safety in addition to the vast increases in the money supply (risk of long term inflation), this is a pretty nice trade and not a great deal of downside risk.
- saving: increase it. already happened a great deal.
- health care/growth industry: we're quite long a few of these like stryker (avg price at $41.72) and am finalizing a 'healthcare sector' index that is better than ETFs.
- current events form future trends. ummm, tax revolt much? lol. obviously he is smart and does good work, but i really hate the name "trend" following or predicting or whatever. he's doing "research" lol...just like many of us. research involves reading economic, political, demographic info and determining what you think will happen vs. the best estimates of what is priced in. i have no idea how he came up w/ tax revolt though...
- how to get out of receission: increase productivity (alternative energies) & anything that will move us into 21st century. here he was so obviously short of ideas or ones he was willing to share :-( ... i really wanted to hear those. alternative energies WILL be great long term but nowhere close to helping us get out of a recession and it will be NOTHING like the productivity increase of the 1990s.

Barron

I want to bet $10,000 worth of food stoage. Preferably Rubbermaid products.

Please let me know after you've made the purchases.

I did not know this, I thought it was out of 1600... When I wrote my post I assumed it was out of 1600... I am willing to take one of the older versions of the test that is x/1600 obviously...

I knew there was a 100% chance you would puss out of the bet, I don't even know why I bother to reply to your posts...
Why not specifically name $10,000 worth of products you want to bet with?
Why would you want to bet with something that is a poor store of value, not portable, illiquid, etc. I'm willing to bet with 10,000$ w orth of US toilet paper here, why would we both spend the effort to go buy a bunch of plastic trash made in china that gives you cancer? **** rubbermaid products, I'm not buying chinese manufactured garbage. That said, if you want to SPECIFICALLY NAME 10,000$ worth of items to bet with, I might still be willing to take you up on this offer because its just such easy money... but you're going to be difficult on purpose because you need to puss out of this bet, like I said.

taken directly from the last post I made... just in case you missed it... i know your reading comprehension is extremely poor.


Also I am willing to make this bet in US dollars assuming we complete the bet in the next 2-3 weeks. Also I am willing to bet in pretty much anything you want that is valuable( think lightweight portable store of value though, we're not betting like 500 pounds of food- 500 pounds of silver is fine though. Pm me for details.

yea you missed the point pretty (embarrassingly) badly :-(

Barron

Ok I like Charmin Ultra - Please let me know when youve purchased the requisite amount.

Where are you gonna find someone to administer and proctor an old version?

Since I have two bathrooms and live alone... sometimes I like to keep Charmin Ultra in one and Cottonelle in another.

to address some of barrons points :


I agree it could be more clear or well done, but there are certain limits that come with being on
any television show, including russian TV, and one of those limits of course the most obvious is
there is only a small amount of time to discuss some very large and complex issues, and things
tend to get oversimplified many times.

I'm glad it made you think a bit and even gave you a potential trade idea.

> I am hearing about a ton of significant tax increases on tobacco, alcohol, ammunition and many
other areas. I don't know how easy it will be to move from one state to another to avoid all of these
taxes. Certainly the new carbon tax seems like it will be hard to avoid. I think a revolt is quite
a real possibility, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was incited over something like taxes- but
its far from a sure thing.

> I am glad there are a few other people who believe that there will be no change at all with Obama.

> I wish he was saying to buy physical silver or platinum instead of gold, but at least he has been
consistent with recommend gold for a long time. I don't think people will get killed in gold unless
they buy into some ETF ponzi scheme. If you're going to buy into the ETF ponzi scheme for some strange
reason, I'm not a huge fan of stops as metals are ridiculous volatile. I am glad that you have came
around to see the importance of gold in the portfolio.

> it's tough to get into all of your great ideas in 10 minutes... I think the only way to get out of
this depression will be through producing many real high quality goods of value. The government is so
anti-small business and anti-free market that I don't really see this happening...

>I think people who are knowledgeable about healthcare will do well. I think people who are capable of
producing vast quantities of food will do well. I think people capable of fabricating high quality
clothing and equipment will do very well, especially hospital or farm equipment. I think commodity
producers will do very well. I think people in the service business without anything tangible to sell could
be in for some real trouble... if you're an accountant, a stock market, a real estate broker, a lawyer, or
anyone whose sustinence is very closely tied to the ponzi schemes, you're going to be looking for a new job.
Farmers will do very well over the next 25 years. I *hope* we will no longer be able to afford to import even
cheap chinese crap, and we will be forced to make what we need here at home. The only way out of this is
to create insane incentives to bring factories and the means of production back home from overseas. However,
for decades government policy has encouraged us to export our real wealth ( means of production ) to other
countries, and the odds of that changing any time soon are slim to none.



> I don't want to speak for Celente here but I think his solution to our problems involves abolishing the fed
and going back to free markets.

If there is enough money on the line, I will find anything I need to. Also it depends on WHAT BET we are making. One bet I proposed involves tests that I may have ALREADY TAKEN, while the other bet of course involves tests I would take in the future.

charmin TP is going for about 0,25 per roll so if you want we could be 40,000 rolls. However, I believe you are going to welsh on the bet so we need to find a third party to HOLD ONTO SOME COLLATERAL (read: not TP) until the bet ends.

so our bet will be for 40k rolls of CHARMIN toilet paper. You are responsible for delivering the TP to any mailing address that USPS delivers to. Also, the TP must still be sealed up in its original wrapping, etc. pm me to finalize terms etc

I want some of this action, my stakes are used condoms. Since my sperm will be more valuable than yours due to obvious gene superiority I will bet two used condoms against your two thousand When you have yours available PM me and we may then find a suitable third party (Thremp you interested?) to hold the wagered items.

I will escrow all sorts of sundered and various goods for you kind folk.

inf0wars,

I would like to prop bet you one cryogenic freezing lab that you can't find someone to administer and proctor an old SAT (You do realize they don't make them anymore... which causes some of the problem. You could take a modern one and punt the writing section but... wait... I have a vague feeling they did something with analogies as well... But its more of a hazy recollection than something I want to be definitive about.)

yea.

i'll take'em wherever i can get'em :-)

would you say that he thinks it was close to a sure thing? he seemed very confident. i'd put the pr(tax revolt) at <1% i think he believes it to be near 50% or more.

it is the american political system...not much "REALLY" changes.

have you checked the correlation between GLD and raw gold prices? it is near 100%. have you also checked the relative magnitudes of moves (something correlation leaves out)? again, they are VERY close.

remember, i'm not holding the ETF to "own" gold, i'm taking an exposure in order to earn returns on the investment and sell higher (much higher i hope) than i bought it at. i think the concern you have is that you won't be able to retrieve your gold...well personally i couldn't give 2 sh*ts so long as the historic correlation and magnitude of returns remains in tact. i don't plan on holding this for more than 1-2 yrs.

could you be more specific? you think services are not valuable? what shoudl canada do?

yea i pretty much completely disagree with this. agrarian/production economies do not equal good and service equals bad. that distinction doesn't make sense. again, look at canada and other production economies with undiversified (or sometimes even diversified) exports. brazil, not so hot. canada, not so hot. australia, doing pretty well (we'll be going long AUD pretty shortly). productivity can increase faster in service economies (see EXACTLY what the gerald said about the computer revolution. look at how that "got us out of the recssion"... an aggrarian/production economy could not have achieved that productivity growth given the current levels of technological innovation in the industry.

seems like that's where he's headed but i've said it a million times, that would likely be best in the long run but just ain't gunna happen now.

Barron

In my "Gold Bubble" thread, there was spirited discussion regarding whether or not gold is (or functions as) money. On this topic I have found dramatic new evidence. Rather than resurrect the Gold Bubble thread, I thought I'd let this be my first contribution to the new megathread.

WATCH THIS VIDEO! http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/vide...tarvation-food

Did Japan Just Buy the IMF's 400 Tonnes of Gold?

If true, what does this mean for the price of gold?

Thoughts?

Why would Japan pay $7500 per ounce when they could open kiosks in shopping malls and pay $900 per ounce?

Seems like you could take your gold and get four times the going rate, travel, profit and party in Zimbabwe! Who besides Mediate wants to join me?

To get on point with your post anything can be used for barter including water, labor, fresh fish or for that matter mud pies? Does that turn water, labor, fresh fish or mud pies into money? Essentially if one accepts that gold is money then everything in existence becomes money and there is an infinite amount of money in the universe.

The last thought brings about a philosophical discussion I had while high with a group of potheads. The question was asked if it was possible to have both an infinite number of hats and an infinite number of donuts. If you can answer this question it should answer the "is gold money?" question. I suggest being quite high prior to tackling either question.

Bottom line is anything can function as a medium of exchange but does that convert it into money unless it is universally accepted anywhere you wish to make a purchase without additional conversion.