i can't even explain to you guys how much of a joke this is...

every morning i wake up and i'm like... wow silver isn't $100/ oz ... HOLY ****.... i gotta find a way to get more silver while its so cheap


if one person set aside say, 3 billion dollars, and wanted to buy silver iwth all of it, the price of silver would be at least 500 / oz overnight in my opinion. if someone had say 20 billion and could use all of it to buy silver... the price would be at least 10,000 an ounce overnight if not significantly higher...

now i realize 20 billion dollars is a lot of money BUT we've already printed up at least 12 trillion in bailout money.... enough to... buy up all of the silver in the world sixty times over at 10,0000 an ounce... they printed up enough money to buy all of the silver in the world sixty times over at ten thousand dollars per ounce.... or six times over at 100,000 an ounce...

of course there will be many people who will not sell @ 100k / oz...

my philosophy is to invest in areas with very very very very high reward potential and very very very very low risk potential. i cant think of many things that'll outperform silver and they sure as hell arent stocks, RE, tbills, bonds, fiat currency, etc...

i have been using this very high reward very low risk strategy for much of my life and it has been working pretty well for me. maybe i am just very lucky though, it's hard to say for sure.

in conclusion please be a patriot and buy silver to ;
-ensure your wealth
-protect your family from diseases such as cancer
-take down the gov't
-be lucky
-be able to transact anonymously

the question is, what do you do if you're wrong?

lolololololololol

I hope I am wrong art. theoretically lets say you pay for car insurance for a year, and then you don't get into a car accident for the whole year. are you wrong for buying the insurance?

i'd never advocate putting all of your eggs in one basket but each investor has to go with whatever they're comfortable with.


my philosophy is that you have to turn lemons into lemonade. i know for 99++% sure that i am correct here, but I HOPE To god I AM WRONG and i never have to eat some of my less delicious food storage items

anyways if i am wrong i will uhhhh
eat the food i bought and continue to rotate it like i always do to ensure little to not waste.
use my water filter when i go hiking, to thirld world countries ( oh wait we'll be one of those soon!!! ), and when i go to NYC cause that water is just ... ooof.

i will use my guns and ammo to protect my freedom and hunt deer,fish,mods,sheep, etc.

i will use my silver to cure disease such as cancer and say a prayer to the gods for silver to go down in price so i can keep buying more and more and more and more and more and more and more until i put the hunt brothers to shame.

i will use my seeds to... grow foods.

and I will be OVERJOYED IF I am somehow wrong. However, unless we pull off a miracle and do something crazy like : nullify the patriot act, enforce the constitution or stop getting looted for 30T+ in 3 months ( just wait till you see how much they loot us for in the next 3 ) by nwo banksters-- I am going to have to stick to my guns.

Historically speaking, when the govt ships 50k worth of debt to every child, man, woman in the country, its a good time to nail down the fort, lay the barbed wire, and hold onto your stores of value with both hands.

what metal will replace silver in its industrial uses? why can't this happen to platinum, or non-radioactive elements with limited availability?

anyways, you're free to do what you like. but take it as an indication that silver and gold fell on a pretty important day. when stocks collapse, your theory of paper assets should make them far more desirable. the govt and IGOs have control of a lot of gold as zygote noted, but silver fell too as the relatively high prices now have resulted in increased production expectations.

while you say paper assets and the USD will collapse, there is no guarantee or even almost certainty that SILVER will be where people go (or gold or whatever). they may again flock to structures they can live in, or other things / assets you are currently not thinking of. the joint probability of BOTH you being right (SHTF) *AND* silver being the asset of choice to hold, is an extremely low number. what happens if TSHTF and US collapses but well capitalized countries take over and people flock to THEIR paper instead of silver? what if transport costs increase the cost and reduce mobility of this silver you hold and the ones you WANT to sell it to or exchange it with don't, can't, or won't accept it?

you've taken a REALLLLLY specific bet on ONE asset and are 99%+ sure you are right. that is almost always a recipe for complete disaster. one thing you havne't outlined properly in the analysis is what happens to the price of silver when you're wrong...

Barron

You don't have a plan B. Whenever I put on a trade, I carefully consider every outcome, every option, every price movement. There's always a point where the analysis you came up with is wrong, the trade is bad, where the idea didn't come to fruition. The best traders know this, plan for it, and accept bad trades, using diversity of ideas to reduce variance. Even Taleb has multiple market bets, waiting for the breakdown. He admits he doesn't know which will occur, but has different ideas using low outlay high return.

Thing is, most doomsday thinkers have more sophisticated ideas, making ebts on financial tools failing and utilising the vast array of spread options to take advantage of huge crashes. You are to dumb or ignorant to construct ideas like this, so you just go long in silver with everything you have and call it an idea. Your downfall is not your belief, but like Rogers, you have no idea how to transfer your belief into a workable trade. There is no way you will listen to this, because all of this is about ego, not making money, but maybe in a few years time you can come back and reflect on what i had just said.

said WAY better than i did! exactly what we're talking about here is precisely what rogers didn't/couldn't do even though he was soooo right on his calls.

Barron

I will admit I do have a lot of silver and a higher % allocated to silver than I recommend others to hold. I agree I do have a high concentration to one allocation-- I believe it will do well.

I believe IF I AM WRONG the price of silver will probably only go up about 20++% a year for the next 5-10 years. If I am RIGHT, the US dollar may be worth 1/20th or less of what it currently buys in the next 2 years. You are right there are no guarantees that people will go to silver. I have studied a lot of history and it seems like I have the past 6,000 years on my side. However, I have diversified sufficiently so that I will not be crippled if silver bcomes worthless. However, I don't think the downside risks on silver are very large at all. Production costs are high, demand for copper and other non-monetary metals is way off. I don't see silver losing much purchasing power here in the next 3 years... in fact as I have explained over and over again, that the perfect storm has been fabricated, and we are about to see the biggest bull run in silver in at least the last 100 years, probably much longer. I think holding silver for the next 5-10 years will give you a significantly better return on a % basis than holding S+P500 from 1982 to 2007. Massive hyperinflation is about to hit the fan here folks-- how can you NOT see this? The writing is on the wall.

You trade- I make long term investments- there is a huge difference between the two. Notice how I won't bet with Yowserrs on a 3 month time horizon? I have no idea where the price is going in the short run. In 6 months from now, I would not be at all surprised to see the spot price of silver being quoted at $7 an ounce or 70$ an ounce-- although neither outcome is likely-- I have seen some CRQAZY SHJT lately-- nothing surprises me any more. Also I would not be surprised to see a gigantic premium over the quoted price if you want the metal in hand... would not be surprised to see COMEX modify delivery rules... would not be surprised to see silver up 30-40% in one day...

I never said this couldn't happen to platinum or any other rare commodity... as the super wealthy start to lose purchasing power they will notice it and pile into real assets... just because it could happen to platinum and it could happen to silver and it could happen to a lot of other things doesn't make my point which you seemed to miss any less relevant, let me spell it out for you: HOW MUCH MONEY DOES IT COST TO BUY UP ALL THE SILVER IN THE WORLD?? ANSWER: Not very much , relatively speaking. Hav eyou looked into CTFC reports w extremely large concentrated short positions in Silver?

I don't see why some people wouldn't accept my silver if i went to sell it, but I would go to someone else who would accept it I believe???

It's my favorite investment in many aspects by far but I will be the first one to tell you to stay diversified, don't put everything in one asset class, don't hold all your assets denominated in one currency, dont hold all assets in the same country / state / etc. dont hold all assets in the bank, dont hold all assets in your house.

hold silver
hold water + food + seeds
hold guns + ammo

this will increase your % chance of living another 2-3 years from probably say 9% to 14%

I can't think of a better return you can get on your investment

Are we talking about the same guy that thinks SLV will hit $250 in 5 years?

Interesting observation, how long have you believed this?

Wouldn't you feel more comfortable having the last six years on your side?

My eyesight is poor, I need an explanation of the precise mechanics of this hyperinflation scenario you speak of.


Wait a minute, the worse case for silver is 20% appreciation per year for the next five to ten years yet you wouldn't be surprised to see it depreciate by 45% in the next six months? Color me confused...........

uhh, you use that word but i do not think it means what you think it means:

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/wrong

Barron

probably should have not compared him to rogers

Barron

I am a relatively noob investor but I am also interested in oil. could someone please point me towards a book or website with info on buying/trading commodities (oil in particular).

In my admittedly inexperienced opinion gold has almost no utility. From a logical standpoint it seems ludicrous to me that gold is so highly valued and touted as an investment.

Buffet - "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

It's funny actually. I can't remember what year the financial report this was in, but I remember reading this EXACT quote, which really helped mold me into a hardcore silver bug. If this quote doesn't SCREAM OH MY JESUS CHRIST I NEED TO GO LONG INFINITE AMOUNTS OF SILVER, then you are probably hopelessly brainwashed.

buffet knows so so so so much about silver, he bought over 100m ounces of silver one time before... yet he devolves into J6P to talk about how bad of an investment gold is- and then right after he says this obviously it triples...

guys dont feel bad if you miss a few tripoles and quadruples... put your money in silver... its going to infinity US dollars.... just a matter of time my "price target" could be extremely low or extremely high. In 5 years silver could be 100 trillion an ounce or $100 an ounce. I am extremely bullish though, obviously. Bullish enough that anyone who thinks silver will be priced in USD is pretty much insane.

I feel bad for you guys who aren't buying silver. I'm glad you're not-- more for me-- but you're missing the opportunity of your lifetime here and it may not be open for much longer... i will be laughing all the way to the bunker.


“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero.” -- Voltaire

I don't really want to rehash my arguments over and over again. Why do I think we will have hyperinflation? We're on track to be printing up 40 trillion in fiat per year AT LEAST... and this will only rapidly accelerate... how do you think we can possibly avoid hyperinflation is the better question...

RE THE GUY who asked about OIL : check out LINDSEY WILLIAMS youtube videos. I have had great success listening to his advice wrt oil price and he has had really accurate predictions imo. I heard him on the radio say oil was going from 147--> 50$, then I shorted it and made a killing... nobody will believe he ever made this prediction but I believe it because I have real money to show for it. Also I cannot recommend his book enough entitled Energy-Non Crisis

Inf0,

Was milling around precious metals trading sites and I see "junk silver" heavily advertised...often with the tag line "popular with survivalists!" Any thoughts beyond "It's silver BUY BUY BUY" and how it compares to traditional stuff like Silver Eagles and other bullion?

I like tripoles - Like stilts right but theres a third for your pecker?

Seriously do you have to run to the public library to post or have you installed a computer in your bunker?

I'll give you 10 oz of silver for your computer. How can you turn that down based on everything you've said?

Re buy infinite silver: sorry can you explain to a noob why silver has so much more utility than gold?

Re inflation: I agree somewhat with this. But surely oil, high quality stocks and high quality properties are all just as good hedges.

I mean this may probably sounds stupidly simplistic but people will always need land to live and grow crops on, oil to fuel their cars etc and good quality companies to sell them toothpaste and soft drinks. What the hell will silver give them?

Re: Linday Williams, thank you will check him out.

bigdaddy - i like it, i'd pick it up if its a reasonable price. Not surprised it wouold be popular among a survivalist, they're very highly recognizable, neaer impossible to fake, smallest denomination of silver you ca get...

mvp- all your questions will be answered if you read through this epic thread but in short- none of those things are going to do anywhere near as well as silver, ammo , food etc as i'e explained man times. 97% of the population owns less than 1/4th of an acre and has aboslutely no idea how to grow crops. People might always "need" houses but that doesn't mean that RE prices don't hae another 80-90% to fall... there is nobody to buy the existing inventory, and more boomers will try to get out of the ponzi scheme as it continues to unravel rapidly. We may start seeing all cash transactions with no mortgage brokers. we may start to see more and more bag your own grocery kiosks in stores to sae money. we may see people goign about transactions without real estate agents to sae money. As people continue to cut back it will create a snowball effect and we will continue to see sharp job losses. yes but if we get 30-40% unemployed there will be less oil demand and some ppl will surely get priced out of oil as well later on. soft drinks could become a bit more of a luxury item. I agree with you 100% that consumer staples companies are going to do better than

siler>gold beccaue the ratio goes down historically during times of crisis, siler is much more useful, much more undervalued.-- i have posted a # of good articles specifically on this topic earlier... look for a post where i bolded a quote by milton friedman.

i'll give you 11. clearly i offer a better deal here and depending on your somputer it may be worth it :-)

Barron

Regardless of the long term outlook for silver am I out of line in thinking that the run up from the beginning of the year is a bit tired for the near term?

I haven't read through this whole thread because I sure its filled with nonsense.

But what are possible reasons why every other commodity has fallen considerably while gold is hitting records high levels? Is this typical in a recession? I understand why other commodities have fallen. Usage in this recession has gone down, so the bubble finally popped. It seems to me gold will eventually drop too, or the other commodities will have to come back.

this thread is filled with nonsense. Also your question has been answered at least 2-3 times in the past 2 gold threads. If you want a long thought out answer i'm sure i have answered this personally at least 2 times if not more.

Basically it comes down to this : gold and silver are money. They have always been money, they will always be money. Sure the government can decree that we MUST accept fiat currency, but the government has been slamming gold and silver prices for over a century now and I believe they are almost out of tricks.

We have posted about the kondratieff winter pyramid and even the picture of it many many times before:



Here is the simple answer to your question :
1- we are entering a crisis of epic proportions that will be magnitudes worse than the great depression. It does not matter at all if you believe this or not, it only matters if people with lots of money who have a much more considerable impact on the market.

2- short interest is obviously at an all time high. More silver has been naked short sold than exists in the entire world. We will see a short squeeze of epic proportions some day and silver could easily double or triple in price in one day.

3-as we continue to go deeper into depression, people will desperately want CASH to buy things. CASH is gold and silver. Paper money is not cash. paper money will eventually return to its intrinsic value. Maybe peoples inflation expectations have something to do with it? We did just print up like 100k of debt for each person in US/Europe to pay off with interest... but uhhh... yeahhhhh obama's not gonna raise taxes guys.

buffet's AR did not sound very optimistic, and he is a market cheerleader telling people to 'buy american' 'buy S+P 500' ROFLROFLROFL-- if buffet writes an article telling you to buy S+P, you etter SHOrt S+P ASAP.

I want to simplify this a little further to make sure you get it i don't mean to talk down or offend you.

We have the biggest crisis in more than a century-->people are very anxious and uncertain about the future-->people hoard cash, liquid assets etc-->cash goes up in price.

I don't know where gold or silver is going-- we could have massive inflation or massive deflation. Luckily these metals are going to do amazingly well whether we have hyperinflation or deflation. If we can artificially strengthen the dollar, we might be able to get gold bakc to 700 or silver back to 10....

to be honest with you i am shocked that gold isn't 3000 an oz already and silver isn't 60 / oz at least...
You definitely need some patience for these, but I cant think of much I'd rather buy once my guns/food/water/seedsetc are in order.

I think poker players can understand better than most that a very very bumpy and volatile return is often the most +EV. The fact is though, silver could break even for the next year, or it could be up to $50 /oz - I truly have no idea. But in the long run, the uS stock market has so so so so so so far to fall in terms of metals that I would not dream of touching most companies.

Can you please define what a "normal recession" is in your opinion? We only have a real big one every 35 or 40 years or so, so I am curious...

It's hard to compare this time to the great depression for a plethora of reasons - first of all we used to have a trade surplus instead of a deficit during that time. Many people grew their own food. We were still on the g old standard until FDR did the confiscation in 1933-- UK british pound also went off the gold standard as you know in 1931-- so many fled to the US dollar for "safety" ecause it was still backed by gold-- which gave us some artificial currency strength.

The fact is, there are so many other factors going on that they would all blow your mind. I can't stress enough to people- start reading newspapers published in other countries. This bull market is going to be so huge.

PLEASE I BEG OF YOU READ THIS ONE THING IF NOTHING ELSE:

When I am right, you do not need to come back here and admit that I am correct, I will not be here to read it. But please, I truly ope you will buy some silver to protect your family's wealth. If you come back and are reading over this post some day while silver is $30 an ounce or $100 an ounce or $3000 an ounce -- I would highly recommend that you buy some , especially if you dont have any.

Break even for the next year? Which of your posts should we believe? This one or the one where you said silver will appreciate 20%++ every year for the next five to ten years?

Next, prove silver is being naked shorted at an all time high, proof not some whacko website links or more of your hyperbole.

infowars

You didn't say why if people are afraid of dollars and buying gold they aren't also buying other commodities.

precious metals are some of the most compact, well recognized stores of value which have been used as money for over six thousand years.

I can come up with some very reasonable explanations for WHY REAL MONEY is in high demand during a crisis.

Take another metal such as copper- well this is used in copper piping, but most people aren't building new constructionrightnow.

notice how a monetary metal that is essentially CASH MONEYis doing very well
whereas a metal thatis much more tied to industrialdemand ( sure they tell you on TVthat silver priceis mostly tied to industrial demand... this is obviously the iggest lie in the book... when industrial demand for silver decreases significantly... the price of silver soars to heightsneverseenbefore.)

Ican't go through every commodity I can possibly think of and attempt to explain its price movement.. there are so many different factors going on here...

why dont you do some homework , pick out 3 commodities you want to talk about,w rite up your opinion on them, and post a graph of each one so we could talk aboutspecifics instead of generalties... I know generalities are much better for you since your #1 goal is to troll,but I strongly prefer specifics



RE: idiot troll dude - I will admit to you I was just throwing numbers out there before. I have absolutely no idea what the price of silver will be in 3 months, 3 years , 3 decades, 3 millenia, etc. I believe it will always hold its value and be able to purchase items. I believe even if it doesn't hold any value it is still one of the most useful items in the entire world to own. I believe we are goinginto the biggest bull market in silver in atleast 100 years. I would not be surprised to see it going up to $100 an ounce or $10,000 an ounce or substantially higher. This is my opinion,I have stated this many times before.

Tobe honest with you I think within a few years our inflation rate will be way too high to price silver in dollars...
zimbabwe hasn't priced any monetarymetals in years really...

ie if 1 oz of silver is worth 90,000 quadrillion zimbabwedollars rightnow... you won't really be able to lock in the price because it
may be up to 130,000 quadrillion tomorrow...

The best thing about precious metals is that they are anonymous, not owed to anyone, free of liability, THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PHYSICAL SILVER ARE UNIMPAIRED.