The point is they have room to play with the numbers to create a perception that warrants panic and/or submission to government requirements, and I'm asking if it is at all relevant that their methodology is skewing the information the way that it is. I know that you and I don't always see eye to eye on things, so I'm asking for someone who may be a little less biased.

Have a good one.

I'm just trying to figure out what you mean by "their methodology is skewing the information". What is the information they're providing that you think is skewed? It sounded like you were talking about % of tests that are coming in positive, which is interesting because I haven't really seen that used much, if at all - probably because it would VERY much be skewed by how testing is being done.

I can't even recall any previous discussion we've had, but I'm not just here to argue with people (not that I won't if I disagree with someone, of course ). I'm here to learn and discuss, and am especially interested in experiences in other provinces.

So what do you guys think the chances of Vegas casinos opening up on May 1st when the Governors shutdown order expires? You think Sisolac extends it? by how much?

Since Trump is talking about opening some areas soon, he will probably not extend the national lock down order on May 1st and leave it up to each Governor. What do you guys think?

No worries.

Let's say at the start of the pandemic you have 100,000 tests. You use up the 100,000 tests as sensibly as you can with a general policy of "we need to see some serious flu-like symptoms."

But then you get the word from Dr. Tam, or whoever, that for the next 100,000 tests, the testing qualification policy needs to tighten, and there needs to be evidence of connections to more definitive high-risk factors and not just the presence of serious flu symptoms.

And then it happens again a third time, another batch of 100,000 tests, a tightening of testing qualifications that is going to rope in a higher percentage of people who are infected.

This will create a graph that looks significantly different than if you used the same testing qualification criteria from the beginning. I'm asking if this is as significant as I think it is.

I think I see what you're getting at, and yes, that would be likely to change results, which is why we can't get *too* hung up on cases alone IMO - those numbers can vary greatly depending on testing regimes, as you've mentioned. That said, I think testing the "right" people is important, so that's a positive change, but ideally when that happens, that information is provided with the results.

As an example of what I mean, here in BC there was a time early on when we had a surprising jump in numbers, but when that happened they explained how and why they had changed some of the way they tested.

Transparency is key, and not all governments excel at it. To some extent, I get it - governments and health officials are sometimes concerned that what they say will be misinterpreted and cause panic or complacency, depending on the message. But I in the end, obviously people appreciate honesty and full transparency, and I think it's the best way to go.

[QUOTE=parisron;55981477]So what do you guys think the chances of Vegas casinos opening up on May 1st when the Governors shutdown order expires? You think Sisolac extends it? by how much?

Since Trump is talking about opening some areas soon, he will probably not extend the national lock down order on May 1st and leave it up to each Governor. What do you guys think?


[/QUO

Go for it. I’ll watch.

This article provides the most recent information I can find as it relates to how they prioritize testing. Before this flowchart I hadn't seen nearly this much transparency as it relates to their methodology. A little bit here, little there, in seven articles from seven media outlets at seven different points along the timeline.

I can tell you that out of the gate, there's no way they were this organized. Every province was doing its own thing and it was a mess and I'm sure that some of the hospital administrators at least were doing at least a small amount of revisionist history with their paperwork until they solidified their policies.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid...ions-1.5520812

Poor choice of words, Stay at home order, or recommendation or whatever it was called.

Good article, thanks!

Yeah, just like the US, with health being a provincial matter (state there, obv), each province does it a little differently - but I understand they share information, so hopefully they learn from each other's best practices.

I think the best numbers to cut through testing changes are the hospitalization and ICU numbers. Not sure if your province is sharing those. Our numbers for today were just released a few minutes ago, and both those numbers are actually down for us, which is awesome. And only 25 new cases, which is a ~2% increase.

Ah, fair enough. Not trying to nitpick; not being in the US, I wasn't sure if I missed something.

Since it's only a recommendation (I believe), I could see it going either way, but it wouldn't shock me if it's not extended. However, I find it hard to imagine casinos being fully opened as soon as May 1st. If things go really great for the US, maybe at some point in May, especially in specific states.

But, things change so quickly with this, I fully expect to be surprised many more times before this is all over.

think he's saying that in a blowout the umps will speed the game up..not nit pick the strike zone so to speak.

I think the pros out weigh the cons with baseball. If the guys come in clean, and are sequestered should be good to go.

it wouldn't be the death of the game it would massively improve it.
if the downside of robot umps is the robot calling it by the book even in blowouts that's fine. who cares the game is over anyway.


when the calls actually matter the robots will get it right way more often than biased often scumbag human umps.i'm not sure why you keep mentioning blowouts. who cares. oh no the occasional 15-2 games takes 2 minutes longer with robot umps the horror! why get calls right in key spots?

even the system with humans they use is idiotic for playoffs and world series.
they don't just take the best umpires. and they don't just use the best home plate umpires for the plate. for example if you want to keep humans there is no reason whatsoever to rotate 7 umpires behind the plate for the world series. take the 2 best and rotate those two paying them extra . the plate is by far the hardest and most important (even more so with replay) and yet they still use this idiotic archaic system despite having the data on who the best plate umps are.

Exactly this. The more important thing by far is getting calls right in close games. I’m sick of seeing good batters getting rung up in key situations when they have the discipline to lay off of a bad pitch. They shouldn’t have to widen their strike zone in fear of a bad call. Same for pitchers who can’t count on any consistency when someone like Angel Hernandez is behind the plate.

I was fine with it when human error was just something we had to live with. Similar to the replay system, the technology we have now means we no longer have to live with it.

Btw, I hate the idea of 7-inning games. Maybe as a fan of the Cubs who have an awful bullpen, I should be for it, but that’s just the point—it fundamentally changes the game.

Matt Berkey with a bold take on his stream tonight that live cash games just won't come back. Basically live cash is dead for good and all games going forward will be private or home games. Not sure what makes him think that, obviously that's pretty extreme.

That's a dumb take. I don't doubt there will be a sizable minority who won't play until there's a vaccine or they're confirmed safe with antibodies but poker rooms will have games as soon as casinos offer them. Some casinos would still be open and offering poker right now if they weren't shut down by local and state governments and there would be idiots playing, too.

Didn't watch his stream, but that is not a bold take, it seems pretty likely a reasonable scenario.

The net return to a casino from live poker, cash or tourney, is relatively low per square foot. There will be competing gaming channels seeking those same resources/capital and labor inputs.

Live poker also requires player liquidity, i.e numbers above a critical level to sustain games. Not sure that the prospect of sitting in close quarters, for chance to play a slow, boring game, will thrive post virus.

The prognosis for live play is not good. OTOH. I could see a more interactive form for online play gaining traction in that market segment. (Think of streaming content, live chat, etc added to online poker. Expect THAT to be a possible future for the game.)

I tried offering first-person shooter sort of 3D approach to online poker 20 years ago, it lost traction after a couple of years for a variety of reasons. We however may come back to emulation of live play online, rather than the hyper-speed, multi-tabling experience that evolved. Things went the other way online by 2003 or so, but there may be niche re-emerging in the future.

This was my initial thought as well...they dont make that much from poker as is, now you incldue the added risk of coronavirus via people touching shared cards and chips.

I think theres a good possibility a lot of casinos significantly reduce their card rooms or remove them completely.

High stakes rooms will live on, and so will a lot of other rooms , but it will be nothing like it used to. All the more reason to legalize online poker, however.

That's ridiculous. I wouldn't be surprised to see Foxwoods my home casino offer live poker as soon as it opens. They are an Indian Casino and they didn't want to close for awhile before being convinced by the governor. I don't think many casinos will have poker running initially but if there is any casino that would it will be Foxwoods.

Seneca my local spot is also an Indian casino and also waited until the very last minute to close. While basically every other casino in the country was shutting down they were still running satellites to their big spring tourny series lol.

Wow really? A lot of casinos will remove them completely? Look that's just absurd. There will be a vaccine within 18-24 months or earlier and in the meantime sure there will most likely be less tables and many more 6 max type games but live poker and live tournament poker isn't going anywhere.

Lol that's crazy but I guess not surprising. Those Indian casinos seem to operate on a much different thought process than most other casinos.

Commerce and the Bike will running lots of cash games as soon as they re-open.

Yea, didn't Commerce refelt all the poker tables in the down time? They will be ready to go!

Is this a joke? I'm serious. If they refelted as part of some sort of COVID-19 cleansing strategy then it's pure optics. Some smelly lardass is just going to breath his non-symptomatic COVID-19 mouth moisture all over it within 20 minutes of the grand re-opening.

Lol Berkey....lets book something on here, for real. I know some of your friends they will vouch. Live poker is never coming back. You heard it here first.. Everyone agreeing with that pm me if u wanna book over 2020 ill lay a lot