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Coronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread) Coronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread)
View Poll Results: Will the Corona Virus will alter their plans to attend WSOP this Summer (if it's not canceled)
Never planned on attending.
177 32.48%
Definitely wont attend.
112 20.55%
Probably wont attend.
93 17.06%
Probably will attend.
71 13.03%
Definitely will attend.
92 16.88%

03-18-2020 , 04:02 PM
03-18-2020 , 04:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
So this might be the only forum where I feel comfortable posting a morbid cost/benefit question like this:

I read an estimate that if we did nothing to stop the pandemic, approximately 2 million people in the US would die, most of them elderly.

Assuming that is true, what is the maximum amount of time that we should be willing to essentially shut down the country (i.e. closing all restaurants, schools, major travel) in order to save those lives?
Many people over 60 and younger deaths will likely die as well.

You seem to infer that elderly lives are not as worthy as let's say 50 or younger. Elderly lives still have value. Would your answer change if it was mainly under 50's dying? Would you allow more time for under 50's than over 60's?

I really think this kind of thinking is dangerous.
03-18-2020 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
People tend to forget prior to CV19 a lot of hospitals were already operating at close to 100% capacity. That's the problem with focusing too closely on just the CFR and thinking it's no big deal. Problems like these tend to be a bit more complex and surprise surprise that's why the entire world is concerned about it.
While I agree with your point, the number quoted is not accurate for most countries. It's well known in Britain, that some specific NHS hospitals had near-100% occupancy in the middle of winter, and this caused (and continues to cause) severe problems and cancellations of appointments. But the "normal" winter peak is over. The latest stats (prior to the Covid outbreak) showed 90% bed occupancy across England and Wales.
That number - which leaves very little scope for coping with epidemics - was probably the worst of any G20 country, but I presume Italy is currently worse. I also believe that London's hospitals are particularly stretched right now.
From what I've read, the US healthcare system currently has considerably more capacity than the UK's. I heard (but haven't confirmed) that bed occupancy even in states like Washington, where Covid and flu are rife, is nearer 70%.

Obviously the pressures on each country's healthcare system will worsen, however, and this will lead to negative outcomes for all kinds of patients.
03-18-2020 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by R*R
Many people over 60 and younger deaths will likely die as well.

You seem to infer that elderly lives are not as worthy as let's say 50 or younger. Elderly lives still have value. Would your answer change if it was mainly under 50's dying? Would you allow more time for under 50's than over 60's?

I really think this kind of thinking is dangerous.
I think we have to value lives over economic damage, but I would point out that if we have more cases than we have ventilators doctors will almost certainly implement a policy that gives priority to younger patients. There is a calculus that weighs age as part of the value of life. It also happens in wrongful death cases. It’s gruesome, but we do this kind of math from time to time.

However, we are almost always gg going to choose economic harm over widespread loss of life.
03-18-2020 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
It's a legitimate question. Shutting down the economy wholesale will itself kill some people and hurt a ton more. I'm not even sure I know the correct moral framework to apply to this issue. Pure utilitarianism has obvious limits. On an only mildly related point, why are NBA players getting tested even though asymptomatic even though ordinary joes must show severe symptoms? i find that absolutely infuriating.
In another viewpoint, the more famous people who test positive make it a lot more real for people who have been saying things like "this is just a flu, whats the big deal."

I know plenty of people who didn't even pay attention till the NBA got shut down and Tom Hanks tested positive.
03-18-2020 , 04:43 PM
Hilarious that people think that despite the postponement of the second biggest sporting event of the year already, which starts after the WSOP, that the WSOP will actually run
03-18-2020 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
So this might be the only forum where I feel comfortable posting a morbid cost/benefit question like this:

I read an estimate that if we did nothing to stop the pandemic, approximately 2 million people in the US would die, most of them elderly.

Assuming that is true, what is the maximum amount of time that we should be willing to essentially shut down the country (i.e. closing all restaurants, schools, major travel) in order to save those lives?
I'm 63, way older than most on here and owing to an accident in January which left me in Intensive Care for a 4 days, broke all my left hand ribs, my left clavicle (collarbone) and damaged my lungs (mainly my left one, which has half its normal capacity) I reckon I have the right to reply...a reply which may surprise.

I think you have a valid point and, assuming it is expressed with due regard to moral philosophy and - hopefully - coming from a decent heart, does not have to be a "dangerous" line of thought.

Clearly last year, if expressed hypothetically, in a "what if" scenario, yeah it would have been massively controversial point of view...but we are not in last year anymore are we? We in a world none of us expected to be in, and none of us know where its going.

Currently the UK governement are putting protection of the vulnerable as the most important priority, and given where we are, and the possiblity we can still reign it in - at least to the extent our NHS can ride it out - I think they right.

But if it gets out of control, then sometime soon NHS doctors will be calling the shots in priorities and then I suspect the younger cases will get the priority. Speaking as a dad and grandad, this is how it should be (hand on heart - which I can do as long as I don't press hard ).

I think "life" should trump "economics" at this stage, but clearly, if we disregard economics completely, then society collapses and potentially many more people die. That's the cold, hard logic here folks, and we should not shoot the messenger.

So I can live with what you are saying, and won't hold it against you. Just be nice how you say it.

You all be careful out there now.

Peace.

Oh..and good luck at the felt.

Last edited by OldManDecaf; 03-18-2020 at 05:03 PM.
03-18-2020 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by R*R
Many people over 60 and younger deaths will likely die as well.

You seem to infer that elderly lives are not as worthy as let's say 50 or younger. Elderly lives still have value. Would your answer change if it was mainly under 50's dying? Would you allow more time for under 50's than over 60's?

I really think this kind of thinking is dangerous.
Certainly I think all lives have value. But cost/benefit health and morbidity questions are often framed not just in terms of lives, but also in terms of “years of life lost”. I -don’t- think they should be framed in term of raw economic benefit. But I do think as a default you should be willing to spend much more money to save the life for a 20-year old than you would to save a 90-year old.
03-18-2020 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by R*R
Many people over 60 and younger deaths will likely die as well.

You seem to infer that elderly lives are not as worthy as let's say 50 or younger. Elderly lives still have value. Would your answer change if it was mainly under 50's dying? Would you allow more time for under 50's than over 60's?

I really think this kind of thinking is dangerous.

Please tell us a better alternative.
03-18-2020 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe
The only people not affected by this are these seminal island people imo
Confirmed cannot be transmitted sexually.
03-18-2020 , 05:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by R*R
Many people over 60 and younger deaths will likely die as well.

You seem to infer that elderly lives are not as worthy as let's say 50 or younger. Elderly lives still have value. Would your answer change if it was mainly under 50's dying? Would you allow more time for under 50's than over 60's?

I really think this kind of thinking is dangerous.
Not sure what the danger is. This sort of calculation is made every day and only more so when resources are stressed. Its unfortunate, but a fact of life in a world without unlimited resources.
03-18-2020 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
Certainly I think all lives have value. But cost/benefit health and morbidity questions are often framed not just in terms of lives, but also in terms of “years of life lost”. I -don’t- think they should be framed in term of raw economic benefit. But I do think as a default you should be willing to spend much more money to save the life for a 20-year old than you would to save a 90-year old.
it goes beyond pure financial interests to other "economic" issues as well, such as things like organ donor lists or rationing of any medical resource which is in demand.
03-18-2020 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
Not sure what the danger is. This sort of calculation is made every day and only more so when resources are stressed. Its unfortunate, but a fact of life in a world without unlimited resources.
So if something happens everyday then it isn't dangerous? This makes no sense @all. So many ways to validate your point without saying well it happens everyday,so it's cool
03-18-2020 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bakes
hmm i see, doesn't really line up with you personally calling it 'good' earlier but ok, go ahead and defer to authority. i'm sure these construction workers feel great about risking infection for something as meaningless as a football stadium
Would guess they feel a whole lot better about being in a position to pay their bills...no work, no pay. And it would not surprise me if a substantial number of them are in a demographic that is not going to qualify for any manner of fiscal aid...
03-18-2020 , 05:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus
So if something happens everyday then it isn't dangerous? This makes no sense @all. So many ways to validate your point without saying well it happens everyday,so it's cool
He’s not saying the thing itself isn’t physically dangerous. He saying that doing a cost/benefit analysis to assess its risk isn’t morally dangerous.
03-18-2020 , 05:57 PM
Allegiant Stadium construction continues amid 30-day state shutdown

"Some residents have voiced concern about the project employing in excess of 2,000 people and how such a large workforce could be prime for possibly spreading the new coronavirus.

Hill said that with a project site as large as the stadium, social distancing recommendations of maintaining at least 6 feet between each person can be easily carried out."

“Being outside helps a lot,” Hill said. “These construction sites are huge. On a huge construction site like this … that (social distancing) should not be an impact felt on a construction site.”

https://www.reviewjournal.com/busine...ate%20shutdown
03-18-2020 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
He’s not saying the thing itself isn’t physically dangerous. He saying that doing a cost/benefit analysis to assess its risk isn’t morally dangerous.
I get what he's saying. My point is you literally cannot defend anything by saying welp it happens everyday so xyz
03-18-2020 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus
I get what he's saying. My point is you literally cannot defend anything by saying welp it happens everyday so xyz
don't think you are using the word "literally" correctly.
03-18-2020 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
I didn’t just make up the 2 million estimate on the back of an envelope. I’m drawing the 2 million number from the academic study by the Imperial College of London that has been widely cited in the news the last couple days. It was my impression that they derive this estimate factoring in all of the collateral effects you mention, specifically under the scenario in which we do nothing to stop the spread of the virus.

Also, I’m not sure where you are getting the idea that a lot of younger people are dying, including babies. As far as I had heard, zero people under age 14 have died worldwide of the virus. Even in Italy, where thousands have died, I don’t think they have had a victim under 30.
Your "impression" (read: assumption) is wrong. The study did no such thing:

"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

You should go to the source, rather than your impression from reading news articles (download Report #9):
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-globa...n-coronavirus/

As regards babies, the article I linked (did you read it?) reported on a study showing 40 children under the age of 1 became seriously or critically ill out of sample size of 2,143 children under 18 that became infected in China. It doesn't report any deaths, but when you magnify the numbers, as in your theoretical case of "what if we did nothing", you will most certainly end up with a baby mortality rate (which is also posited in the report from the Imperial College of London).
03-18-2020 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
On an only mildly related point, why are NBA players getting tested even though asymptomatic even though ordinary joes must show severe symptoms? i find that absolutely infuriating.
03-18-2020 , 06:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
don't think you are using the word "literally" correctly.
I literally am. As before a usage problem replacing really or actually. Why don't we just pull our d***s out now, and measure and bypass the semantics.
03-18-2020 , 07:03 PM
03-18-2020 , 07:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by michelle227
Would guess they feel a whole lot better about being in a position to pay their bills...no work, no pay. And it would not surprise me if a substantial number of them are in a demographic that is not going to qualify for any manner of fiscal aid...
A friend is working that Stadium construction job. The rest of his immediate family has been laid off from hotel or retail jobs ....

I suspect they all feel a whole lot better that he is working.
03-18-2020 , 07:21 PM
I know it's a tough time for a lot of people but can someone please confirm if WSOP is still a go? Thx.
03-18-2020 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutella virus
I literally am. As before a usage problem replacing really or actually. Why don't we just pull our d***s out now, and measure and bypass the semantics.
I'll have a fiver on Nutella.

God, I miss live poker.

      
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