Just played my first 750 hours of live poker and had quite the crazy ride, stakes are 1/2, 2/2, 1/3 & 2/5, some 0,4/8 deepstacked as well. I usually buy in short, but sometimes deeper depending on game dynamics. Had to group some of the earlier sessions due to losing the info on those.

How normal is this kind of variance? Should i be prepared for even sicker runs in the future? I ]

play more 2/3/5/T - 2/3/5 is obviously a waste of your time mang...200/hr is 4 peasants

$140.71 / hour after one session in 2022 (woulda been $730 / hour had I left after the first hour)... so expert play is to pack it in for the year in order to be able to maintain the barg?

GcluelesssustainablenoobG

Yeah unfortunately I had time constraints and the game didn't start until around noon the times I was there and I had to leave by 3:30.

Hopefully this year I can just play a few hrs at 3/5/T/20 and make $2k/hr if I can ever make it on a Friday evening. More efficient that way.

Happy New Year to all. Thought I would share my 2021 results here. First some backstory. I finished up a degree this year in the spring and decided to give poker some more serious effort and try playing more volume and as a principal source of income. The results were mixed. I started off the year on an insane heater, and then ran into some well-deserved run bad that messed with my head a bit, so I ended up taking a couple months off. Coming back to the game in the fall I had some success again, but then just finished the year on a multi-month dowswing/breakeven stretch that has been pretty hard to handle mentally at times. Nothing new to you grinders I'm sure, but it still sucks. Overall though I am super grateful and pleased to have booked my best year yet, and am excited to put in more hours in the coming year.

Here are the results by game type: The tournaments are mostly promotional events (freerolls, guarantees, etc..). Mostly small stakes and a few mixed game sessions.

1/2 NL ($50-300): $5232 over 111hrs = $47.13/hr
1/3 NL ($100 - 1000): -$3,155 over 195hrs = -$16.18/hr
2/5 NL ($200 - 1000): $72,453 over 688hrs = $105.38/hr
5/T NL ($500+): $6200 over 24hrs = $258.33/hr
Tourneys and Mixed Games: $4965 over 42hrs = $118.21

Total: +$85,695 over 1060hrs for $80.85/hr average.

I'll see if can't figure out a way to post a graph as well.

That seems pretty normal to me, and like nice results.

Agree. "Normal" is probably uglier tbh. This is crushing. Well done.

Ah, that´s good to hear, this is evrything i played past 10 years so hard to have a reference point I've been moving to a bit more lag postflop so that could explain +variance and +winrate.

Sick!

Anything you noticed that you struggled with after a long hiatus?


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2021 results

Casino 2/5-10 (1000) +2216 from 40.5 hours = $54.17ph

Home Game 2/5-10 (1000) -4410 from 70 hours = -$63.15ph

App $1/2 6 max +1608 from approx 4k hands

Overall -$705.

My first ever losing cash year and also my lowest volume year ever.

Meh year all round - there was no casino poker for much of the year and we were locked down for 3 months straight.

Played a $2 per hand + tips home game where I really thought I had an edge, that I just couldn't win a hand in. Only 70 hours so w/e but I ran a little too bad and saw a few too many set up type hands in favour of one particular guy who was a GIANT tipper (he'd tip $100 if he won $1k and regularly tip $25 for getting a three bet through pre flop) that I quit the game.

Being honest though, I definitely have lost an edge play wise too - not playing enough and tbh I've had such a bleak year personally that I've been going to play at least as much for the company and a break from home that I'm not concentrating at the table and playing somewhere between a b and c game most of the time. And I'm not good enough at poker for even my B game to beat the good players at the stakes I play.

I need to be honest with myself about what I want out of poker and decide if I have the desire to re-commit to improving and getting better.

Nice results. This variance is normal and not even 'bad' yet. Keep it up.

thanks mang.

I had several areas that required a lot of work and I knew this going in so I defaulted to playing a very straight foreword tag approach till I started getting everything sorted out and have really transitioned to a LAG game

Simple attention span was abysmal. In any given hand I can tell you the exact action and pot size. Coming back I would suddenly be looking at a flop that I was not involved in and did not know how the action went. This was number one that I needed to work out. This took a while to get back where I like it.

I read strat threads to understand various player type thought processes. Generally speaking I am pretty dialed into where I stand in hands and have a gameplan for what I am attempting to accomplish. The reason why I started playing a very straight foreword TAG initially was b/c I knew I would be rusty. I was shocked at the number of large mistakes I made. I spent a ton of hours discussing lines and alternative lines getting my brain back in poker shape.

Pulling the trigger/going with it. Getting my confidence back for this took time

Live reads. Things as simple as glancing to my left to notice that 2 players had their hands cocked ready to fold preflop. I was expending so much mental energy that I was slacking in other areas like this.


As a long term pro I have logged an absolute ton of hours playing casino poker with a high w/r. I have never been particularly game selective and I dont seat jump. My w/r in this game which I believe is sustainable just shows how important selection actually is. I am doing a few things but mostly it is a massive skill differential and any one who is a solid winner in a live 2/5 game would obliterate this game too.

Can't recall if I've told you this, but one of my fave quotes on this forum is from you. IIRC, you were getting ready to fly back home after a stint in Vegas and were reflecting on things. You said something along the lines of "I now have a better idea of where I fit in poker, and where poker fits in my life".

Gnothingwrongwithplayingpokeronyourownterms,imo;go odluck!G

appreciate this and I will be referring back time and time again.. genuinely curious because it always FEELS like there is no difference after a long hiatus on the surface until you really peel back the layers.

TY and hope you continue crushing!!


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I'm just a once-a-week rec player (who tried to stay poker sharp responding to HHs here), but after my 20 month Covid layoff, I found that after almost every session I was regretting a choice I made facing a big decision in a big pot. Those kind of mistakes are difficult to overcome for a modest winner like myself.

GcluelessrustynoobG

gg - I made so many blunders that I wanted to punch myself in the face for when coming back I literally lost sleep on some of them. The good news is many of them I only needed to make once as I am sure is the case for you as well.

Yeah that is an interesting perspective. I think that even as much as we try to stay sharp, there is no substitute for being there physically and actually playing.


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Of everyone who plays poker, what percentage do you think make money? I figured it was around 15%. Limon and Trooper talk about it being 1% to 5%. Reading this thread, one might think it's 80%. Is it a case of only the winners post and the losers stay silent or are people fudging their results like filtering out losing stakes, months, etc?

That's hard to say. There's a large percentage of players that play very little poker and nearly all of those players are going to be -EV.

Depends on the stakes i’d say lower the stakes , lower the pct of winning players

1/2-1/3, 95% losers, 5% winners

Other end of the spectrum; There are high stakes games where everyone’s a winner except one ultra rich billionaire who doesnt give a f

There's a huge selection bias in winrate posters ITT. First, they have to care enough about their games to study and find the forum. Second, they have to have real records. And third, they have to have a sample size and/or winrate that they feel willing to post ITT. That is a very small percentage of players, especially among low-stakes.

False, s/he’s the real winner

A bit of everything, but mostly selection bias. If you had to pick a more unrepresentative group of the poker world you'd have trouble finding one compared to the group in here.

Out of all the people who play poker let's say X, who knows about 2+2?

Who knows about this LNLHC sub forum?

Who knows about this thread?

Who has an account?

Who is actually a winning player? (We can assume the vast majority of losers will not care to post their results)

Who cares enough to post in this thread?

As you can see the number likely gets filtered down quite a bit pretty quickly.

So it's not surprising to me that you would see basically all winners by the time you see the posts in this thread. Plus most of the stakes being played are live low stakes which is the easiest to beat.

^this

Two different metrics (upthread alluded to this)

1 is - what % of table time is occupied by a winning player. Might be 20% (?) at 1/3. (Gets higher in % as the stakes go up)

2 is - what % of people that say “I play poker” and have winning lifetime records of over 100 hours of play. This % is smaller. So many very casual players that show up to the casino once every year.

I think 1 is the more appropriate measure.