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Old 09-07-2021, 11:07 PM   #25601
clide9
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
They are intervals. A parenthesis means the range doesn't include that endpoint and a bracket means it does. I think this meaning is universal in math but I'm not sure. It's not important at all but it would bother me if that information weren't included.

If you missed it the units are in 100BB "buyins."
Thanks for making that clear.
Do you know what your win/loss percentage was for this stretch?
It makes me wonder how impactful those very large anomalous wins are on a win rate. Though they are so few, they are really big. Im talking about the 7-12 range.
Would you say that you rely on these kind of sessions from time to time to maintain a ~10bb/hour win rate?
Iím trying to figure out if these kind of sessions are just anomalies or if they should be a feature of a winning styleís session history. Maybe they seem like a lucky night but are actually a necessary ďside effectĒ of a winning strategy. Its hard to get a feel for how impactful they even are without doing the math. I donít feel people find these distributions important or interesting but I really do think they offer some insight. Iím curious where you would say your playing lies between conservative and aggressive/volatile?
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Old 09-08-2021, 12:07 PM   #25602
gobbledygeek
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
2500 hours in 1/2 playing in FloridaÖare you allergic to money or something?
Meh, that's nothing. I've got 365 sessions / 1354 hours of Live 2/4 *Limit* under my belt.

Glol@me,ldo;48%sessionswon@$1.96/hour,winningatlife!G
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Old 09-08-2021, 12:10 PM   #25603
gobbledygeek
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also, for those guys who posted those nice win/loss distribution giraffes: is there a simple way I can do something similar based on a single results column in Excel?

ETA: Currently looking into some Histogram Chart tutorials. Hopefully my pea sized brain can figure this out...

GcluelessExcelnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 09-08-2021 at 12:22 PM.
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Old 09-08-2021, 01:17 PM   #25604
Angrist
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Also, for those guys who posted those nice win/loss distribution giraffes: is there a simple way I can do something similar based on a single results column in Excel?

ETA: Currently looking into some Histogram Chart tutorials. Hopefully my pea sized brain can figure this out...

GcluelessExcelnoobG
It's pretty straightforward: https://www.excel-easy.com/examples/histogram.html I do mine in Matlab because that's what I deal with every day for work.

Mine was raw win/loss in dollars, so it'd be interesting to see the difference between absolute $ and $/hr. I've got a pretty wide distribution of session lengths but I didn't see any pattern with WR vs. session length.
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Old 09-08-2021, 02:10 PM   #25605
gobbledygeek
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My version of Excel doesn't have the easy peasy Histogram chart option so I had to fart around with it for a bit, but I think I got this...



So that's over 627 sessions at 1/3 NL limit (6.87 bb/hr winrate over 4959.5 hours and, sigh, holding).

I broke it down into 66bb = $200 BIs even though I've only been doing that for the last ~1/3rd of my hours (first ~2/3rds I did 100bb = $300 BIs).

ETA: Didn't do the correct fancy smancy brackets, but [0,1] means $0 to $199 (inclusive) in my giraffe.

GIwasted*way*toomuchworktimeonthis,lol@meG
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Old 09-08-2021, 02:33 PM   #25606
gobbledygeek
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Interesting quick takeaways from my giraffe:

42% of the time I fall within a $200 (1 BI) win/loss. Sounds nitty (especially considering my average session time is 7.9 hours)?

67% of the time I fall within a $400 (2 BI) win/loss. Gotta be nitty?

My winning percentages at various BI (66bb) wins versus losses:

-1 (263): 61%
1-2 (154): 65%
2-3 (94): 61%
3-4 (52): 77%
4-5 (11): 55%
5+ (27): 93%

GcluelessnumbersnoobG
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Old 09-08-2021, 05:18 PM   #25607
Angrist
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG, that's more than clear enough to make the point. Binning at a full BI increment makes for a nice trend without the artifacts I have in mine.

It's hard to tell visually, but I don't think your distribution is much tighter than mine or Browni's. Although maybe we're all three nits.

What's the story on the +11 session?
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Old 09-08-2021, 06:08 PM   #25608
gobbledygeek
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
GG, that's more than clear enough to make the point. Binning at a full BI increment makes for a nice trend without the artifacts I have in mine.

It's hard to tell visually, but I don't think your distribution is much tighter than mine or Browni's. Although maybe we're all three nits.

What's the story on the +11 session?
I'm guessing if you binned then you'd have the same shaped giraffe?

I have no clue if binning at a bigger BI makes a difference or not? And then on top of that could there be a difference in topping up to the BI after every hand (which I do) versus not? It's also possible I should have broken my stats into 2 batches (the first 2/3rds results using the $300 BI versus the latter 1/3rds results using the $200 BI)? But I'm too lazy to do that.

It's funny, looks like both me and Browni have a single way outlier largest win. I suppose somewhat to be expected since I'm guessing most of us have a built-in stop-loss due to limited money-in-pocket (my largest loss being $1200 which was my maximum money-in-pocket at the time), whereas obviously we don't have that for wins. And yet I literally have zero recollection of it at all; just know for sure it happened and logged it in multiple sources afterwards. I do recall one session where I busted like a couple guys in a row and broke the only table running at the time, and then lol moved all my chips into play at the 2/4 Limit table while waiting for the 1/3 NL table to re-open, although I have no clue if it was that particular session or not. Although if you ask me about my largest losing session, I can tell you exactly how the last 2 BIs went into the pot (and in the last hand even give you the name of the villain, in spite of that hand happening like a ~decade ago).

Gpain>>>>happinesswithregardstomemory?G
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Old 09-09-2021, 04:01 AM   #25609
browni3141
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
GG, that's more than clear enough to make the point. Binning at a full BI increment makes for a nice trend without the artifacts I have in mine.

It's hard to tell visually, but I don't think your distribution is much tighter than mine or Browni's. Although maybe we're all three nits.

What's the story on the +11 session?
GGs graph looks a bit tighter. It would be a lot of tighter if he had bucketed by 100BB. Standard deviation is higher in buyin units for smaller buyins, but lower in BB units.

I donít think there is anything to interpret from my graph. Itís always been my opinion that these statistics are not useful. It looks really close to a normal distribution to me. Might look nice to overlay the bell curve onto my graph.

My biggest outlier is from a short 4.5h session playing with a couple whales at the table where my winrate was likely $100+/h and I ran good.

I believe I play looser and more aggressive than most forum users advocate for 1/2. Less aggressive than optimal because I still (intentionally) underbluff a lot of spots but the idea that you canít bluff in at 1/2 is a pretty bad one. There are tons of weak/tight and scared money players and tons of players who split their ranges everywhere so theyíre really weak in certain spots.
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Old 09-09-2021, 11:50 AM   #25610
Angrist
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd agree 100% that there's not much to take from analyses like this. The sample sizes aren't large enough, there's too much variation in conditions (I'd beat the piss out of 2012 me if we met on the felt), and there's no way to aggregate between players in a meaningful way. But I still like looking at them.

Same with the "day of the week" analysis. By gut and my eyes tell me there's a difference, but it doesn't shake out in the limited data.


Not to detour into strategy too far, but that's a great point about bluffing at $1/2. There are plenty of good spots for it, especially if you have the right image and use it sparingly.
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Old Yesterday, 05:39 AM   #25611
PZ2
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I want to start taking this hobby more seriously and do it right. It’s not going to be my job or anything, but I hope to get a consistent ~5 hours a week of play. Can I please get your opinions on the following?

1. I initially planned to start at the lowest stakes in LA, but apparently the buyin structure is less than 100BB at everywhere except The Bicycle’s 2/3 game. I don¬’t know if I’m a winning player yet, which is why I wanted to start at the bottom. However, I’m closer to other casinos and could start at 2/5 or 5/5 too. Are ~$500 buyin games much tougher than the 1/2 to 2/3 games in LA? https://www.pokeratlas.com/poker-rooms/los-angeles

2. Is 20 buyins enough? This would be $6k or $10k, depending which blind level I decide to start at. This is the only money I plan to invest, and if it turns out I’m a losing player, then I won’t be topping up/trying again.

3. I think it’s strongly recommended that I subscribe to a training site. I’ve searched around and found a bunch: upswing, raise your edge, run it once, solve for why, red chip poker, and crush live poker. What differentiates them? Which one do you suggest?

4. I’m guessing it’s generally true that it’s easier to play on Friday night and Saturday. True? Are games that much worse at other times or day?

5. Besides a training site, I’ve read a bunch of poker books including Modern Poker Theory, The Grinder’s Manual, Applications of NLHE, and others. I think the last studying to add would be a solver. Does one come with the training sites? Is there anything else?

6. Which casinos are recommended in LA, and why? I’ve been watching the Hustler’s live stream and it seems pretty cool.

7. Any other suggestions/advice?
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Old Yesterday, 08:37 AM   #25612
johnny_on_the_spot
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by PZ2 View Post
I want to start taking this hobby more seriously and do it right. Itís not going to be my job or anything, but I hope to get a consistent ~5 hours a week of play. Can I please get your opinions on the following?

1. I initially planned to start at the lowest stakes in LA, but apparently the buyin structure is less than 100BB at everywhere except The Bicycleís 2/3 game. I don¬ít know if Iím a winning player yet, which is why I wanted to start at the bottom. However, Iím closer to other casinos and could start at 2/5 or 5/5 too. Are ~$500 buyin games much tougher than the 1/2 to 2/3 games in LA? https://www.pokeratlas.com/poker-rooms/los-angeles

2. Is 20 buyins enough? This would be $6k or $10k, depending which blind level I decide to start at. This is the only money I plan to invest, and if it turns out Iím a losing player, then I wonít be topping up/trying again.

3. I think itís strongly recommended that I subscribe to a training site. Iíve searched around and found a bunch: upswing, raise your edge, run it once, solve for why, red chip poker, and crush live poker. What differentiates them? Which one do you suggest?

4. Iím guessing itís generally true that itís easier to play on Friday night and Saturday. True? Are games that much worse at other times or day?

5. Besides a training site, Iíve read a bunch of poker books including Modern Poker Theory, The Grinderís Manual, Applications of NLHE, and others. I think the last studying to add would be a solver. Does one come with the training sites? Is there anything else?

6. Which casinos are recommended in LA, and why? Iíve been watching the Hustlerís live stream and it seems pretty cool.

7. Any other suggestions/advice?

1. From lives streams and hand histories Iíve seen, Iím not sure tough games exist in LA in any capacity.

2. If itís a hobby and you can replenish the money, 1 BI is enough. 20 is plenty.

3. red chip and CLP are geared towards live poker while the others, I believe, are geared more towards online. I was a CLP sub pre-pandemic and liked their content.

4. Personally I find weekday games ďeasierĒ. They are reg filled and typically many of the players play a very straight forward style. I tend to have a fairly good idea where Iím at. Weekend games are typically more actiony. People are drinking more so the gamble gamble comes out. All this is to say the games are generally ďeasierĒ in different ways.

5. You can use a solver when studying live poker but at lower stakes itís not going to be super important. Itís good to know the information but relying on its results to try to play more GTO in LLSNL is just pointless IMO. Many pots go multi-way for many streets, so pots get bloated quickly. IMO, understanding combo metrics and pot odds is of much more value at these steaks

6. Never been to the area.

7. Good luck. Stick with the studying, LLSNL isnít too difficult to beat with a little bit of studying and some stubbornness to not quit if you lose in the beginning
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Old Yesterday, 09:05 AM   #25613
PZ2
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
1. From lives streams and hand histories Iíve seen, Iím not sure tough games exist in LA in any capacity.

2. If itís a hobby and you can replenish the money, 1 BI is enough. 20 is plenty.

3. red chip and CLP are geared towards live poker while the others, I believe, are geared more towards online. I was a CLP sub pre-pandemic and liked their content.

4. Personally I find weekday games ďeasierĒ. They are reg filled and typically many of the players play a very straight forward style. I tend to have a fairly good idea where Iím at. Weekend games are typically more actiony. People are drinking more so the gamble gamble comes out. All this is to say the games are generally ďeasierĒ in different ways.

5. You can use a solver when studying live poker but at lower stakes itís not going to be super important. Itís good to know the information but relying on its results to try to play more GTO in LLSNL is just pointless IMO. Many pots go multi-way for many streets, so pots get bloated quickly. IMO, understanding combo metrics and pot odds is of much more value at these steaks

6. Never been to the area.

7. Good luck. Stick with the studying, LLSNL isnít too difficult to beat with a little bit of studying and some stubbornness to not quit if you lose in the beginning
Thanks for your reply!

2. I could reload, but wouldnít want to. I plan to set aside X for poker and thatís it.

5. I agree with that, actually. Exploitative poker should be much better at live low stakes.

7. Thank you!
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Old Today, 05:46 AM   #25614
Pork Fri Rize
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hooray just completed hour 305 post covid 2/5 and still down 5 buyins. Biggest losing session was 1k (once) have doubled up only twice. Avg session has been <5 hrs due to lousy game conditions in a local that used to be a gold mine. Plenty of games, just tighter fish.
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Old Today, 12:31 PM   #25615
411Heelhook
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by PZ2 View Post
I want to start taking this hobby more seriously and do it right. Itís not going to be my job or anything, but I hope to get a consistent ~5 hours a week of play. Can I please get your opinions on the following?

1. I initially planned to start at the lowest stakes in LA, but apparently the buyin structure is less than 100BB at everywhere except The Bicycleís 2/3 game. I don¬ít know if Iím a winning player yet, which is why I wanted to start at the bottom. However, Iím closer to other casinos and could start at 2/5 or 5/5 too. Are ~$500 buyin games much tougher than the 1/2 to 2/3 games in LA? https://www.pokeratlas.com/poker-rooms/los-angeles

2. Is 20 buyins enough? This would be $6k or $10k, depending which blind level I decide to start at. This is the only money I plan to invest, and if it turns out Iím a losing player, then I wonít be topping up/trying again.

3. I think itís strongly recommended that I subscribe to a training site. Iíve searched around and found a bunch: upswing, raise your edge, run it once, solve for why, red chip poker, and crush live poker. What differentiates them? Which one do you suggest?

4. Iím guessing itís generally true that itís easier to play on Friday night and Saturday. True? Are games that much worse at other times or day?

5. Besides a training site, Iíve read a bunch of poker books including Modern Poker Theory, The Grinderís Manual, Applications of NLHE, and others. I think the last studying to add would be a solver. Does one come with the training sites? Is there anything else?

6. Which casinos are recommended in LA, and why? Iíve been watching the Hustlerís live stream and it seems pretty cool.

7. Any other suggestions/advice?

1. Difficult 2/5 games don't really exist as a standard, especially in areas that regularly spread games higher than 2/5.

2. For your goals, it's probably fine. 20 bi's isn't safe if you're not willing to finance your bankroll but it's probably enough to determine if you're a winner or not, even if you run bad. Just have to have self-awareness.

3. I like pokercoaching.net but from what I've seen and heard they're all pretty solid.

4. Games are different and generally more profitable during those times. Variance also tends to be higher as well.

5. If you want to be good at this game, you need to commit yourself to understanding the theory of the game, and right now poker theory is dominated by gto framework. It's important at all levels, even the fishiest of 1/2 games, and avoiding it will put a very low ceiling on what you're able to achieve in your poker career. Committing to ignoring gto concepts is a commitment to mediocrity.

7. Study more than you play right now, especially preflop charts. Good poker often looks like a flow chart with preflop being the first branch in your decision tree. Therefore the decisions you make preflop will dictate what you're able to do postflop. Be mindful when you play, you should detect your own leaks far quicker than any of your opponents. Study with a purpose, when you detect these leaks focus your study time on how to specifically fix those leaks.
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Old Today, 01:04 PM   #25616
AlanBostick
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pork Fri Rize View Post
Hooray just completed hour 305 post covid 2/5 and still down 5 buyins. Biggest losing session was 1k (once) have doubled up only twice. Avg session has been <5 hrs due to lousy game conditions in a local that used to be a gold mine. Plenty of games, just tighter fish.
That is the opposite of my experience. When my local cardroom reopened in April, games were off the hook. This has eased off somewhat, to the point where the games are merely very good.
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Old Today, 07:55 PM   #25617
PZ2
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 411Heelhook View Post
1. Difficult 2/5 games don't really exist as a standard, especially in areas that regularly spread games higher than 2/5.

2. For your goals, it's probably fine. 20 bi's isn't safe if you're not willing to finance your bankroll but it's probably enough to determine if you're a winner or not, even if you run bad. Just have to have self-awareness.

3. I like pokercoaching.net but from what I've seen and heard they're all pretty solid.

4. Games are different and generally more profitable during those times. Variance also tends to be higher as well.

5. If you want to be good at this game, you need to commit yourself to understanding the theory of the game, and right now poker theory is dominated by gto framework. It's important at all levels, even the fishiest of 1/2 games, and avoiding it will put a very low ceiling on what you're able to achieve in your poker career. Committing to ignoring gto concepts is a commitment to mediocrity.

7. Study more than you play right now, especially preflop charts. Good poker often looks like a flow chart with preflop being the first branch in your decision tree. Therefore the decisions you make preflop will dictate what you're able to do postflop. Be mindful when you play, you should detect your own leaks far quicker than any of your opponents. Study with a purpose, when you detect these leaks focus your study time on how to specifically fix those leaks.
Thank you!

I like the way you worded it - 20BI should be enough to discern whether Iím profitable or not. Iíve decided to use that as a stop loss/bankroll - whatever you want to call it.

Iím familiar with GTO in that Iíve read and understood it as presented in the books Iíve mentioned. However, I havenít done any solver work yet. Definitely agree - GTO is the base in which one can build an exploitative strategy if desired.

I also think I will start at the 2/3 game to get my feet wet, despite the higher rake as a percentage of max BI. If the game feels natural/easy, perhaps Iíll do a one time increase to my stop loss/bank roll and switch to 2/5.
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Old Today, 10:48 PM   #25618
Tanqueray
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ya poker is super easy. Study hard, play 5 hours a week, and you will be on your way to making this an awesome side income.
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