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Old 11-02-2019, 07:02 PM   #24476
browni3141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Yes this is funny, as is people who don't track when they are running really bad. Also people who include promos in their winrate. I know some whose winrate is almost all promos since they only play during promo hours. Not much of a reflection of skill, except perhaps game selection.

I keep track of promo $$, but only for tax purposes.
I don’t use winrate as a reflection of skill. I only care about the money, not comparing myself to others who aren’t even playing in the same player pool anyway.

I include everything in my winrate that’s part of my realizable expectation (BBJ is not realizable, stuff like comps and high hands are)
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Old 11-02-2019, 08:16 PM   #24477
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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
I don’t use winrate as a reflection of skill. I only care about the money, not comparing myself to others who aren’t even playing in the same player pool anyway.

I include everything in my winrate that’s part of my realizable expectation (BBJ is not realizable, stuff like comps and high hands are)
I like the winrate primarily to compete against myself, but I agree the money is paramount, which is why I focus on monthly profit. It's always satisfying to set a new monthly record.

Also, you include comps? I never even thought about that. I suppose I knew I was saving a lot of money on food costs (probably hundreds of dollars a month), but never thought about including this in my winrate.
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Old 11-02-2019, 08:51 PM   #24478
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
I don’t use winrate as a reflection of skill. I only care about the money, not comparing myself to others who aren’t even playing in the same player pool anyway.



I include everything in my winrate that’s part of my realizable expectation (BBJ is not realizable, stuff like comps and high hands are)
Extra expenses?
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Old 11-02-2019, 09:37 PM   #24479
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Win rate is not a reflection of skill? I guess ERA is not a reflection of pitching skill either?

The best players win the most money long term. End of story. Anyone who disagrees with that has an obvious reason to disagree. It makes them feel better about themselves.
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Old 11-02-2019, 10:26 PM   #24480
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Extra expenses?
What do you mean? Are you asking if I deduct expenses from my win-rate? Depends on the context. For purposes of evaluating expected bankroll growth and RoR, yes. For comparing different travel destinations, yes. For bragging about how much bigger mine is than yours, no.

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Win rate is not a reflection of skill?
I didn’t say that anywhere.

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The best players win the most money long term. End of story. Anyone who disagrees with that has an obvious reason to disagree. It makes them feel better about themselves.
Win rates can’t be compared like that. The same player will have different win rates in different venues. You could argue that identifying and getting yourself into the best games is a skill, but where you live isn’t.
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Old 11-03-2019, 08:21 AM   #24481
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I don’t use winrate as a reflection of skill.
You didnt say that anywhere?
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Old 11-03-2019, 12:02 PM   #24482
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Win rate is not a reflection of skill? I guess ERA is not a reflection of pitching skill either?

The best players win the most money long term. End of story. Anyone who disagrees with that has an obvious reason to disagree. It makes them feel better about themselves.
mmm no it is not. It is a reflection of skill + how you run.

I have a $62/hour winrate over 1400 hours. I also have 5 sessions that account for a quarter of that winrate.... about 40 hours out of 1400 that account for a quarter of my winrate. I don't show up those days, I get sucked out on instead of scooping that $5000 pot, whatever, my winrate drops from crushing it to real solid.

If you take away my 5 biggest loses to make it 'even' or whatever, I still lose about 15% of my winrate.

A lot of poker is being there when someone decides to dust off $5000, not being the best player in the room.
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Old 11-03-2019, 12:13 PM   #24483
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I dont buy the "how you run" argument. Not when we are talking about long term. But then I dont play in games where people dust off $5K. And people say I play in soft games in S. Florida? LOL

In 6000 hours Ive never played a 2/5 hand with a pot over $2500. Ive probably only played 3 pots over about $1800.

I find it pretty hilarious that people think my games are soft and then I hear talk of $5000 pots and 5 sessions that account for 1/4 of a win rate.

A few days ago a guy opened 66 and ended up folding the turn to me on a J962 board when I made a huge turn check raise. We started the hand $1800 deep. Guys in my games aren't playing massive pots unless they have the nuts. Again, I dont know where you guys find guys dumping that kind of money but I guess if that's the case, then what I said isn't true. I sure dont see that kind of insanity here in S. Florida (or anywhere else Ive ever played) though and if you see that kind of craziness often enough, your win rate should be sky high and be able to absorb 1 or 2 suck outs in huge pots because you're making much more in the pots you win.

Last edited by MikeStarr; 11-03-2019 at 12:29 PM.
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Old 11-03-2019, 12:29 PM   #24484
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

mike, i've never played in florida but I would be surprised if the reputation it has of snowbird games being soft and wild was incorrect

it seems pretty unbelievable you've only played 3 hands of 300+bb pots

are you seeing others play in pots this big?

do you by any chance wear a hoodie and have headphones on and don't really engage with the rest of the snowbirds socially?
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Old 11-03-2019, 12:30 PM   #24485
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
I don’t use winrate as a reflection of skill. I only care about the money, not comparing myself to others who aren’t even playing in the same player pool anyway.

I include everything in my winrate that’s part of my realizable expectation (BBJ is not realizable, stuff like comps and high hands are)
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Win rate is not a reflection of skill? I guess ERA is not a reflection of pitching skill either?

The best players win the most money long term. End of story. Anyone who disagrees with that has an obvious reason to disagree. It makes them feel better about themselves.
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I didn’t say that anywhere.
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You didnt say that anywhere?
"I don't use X as Y" does not equal "X cannot be used as Y." browni talked about what he personally finds important IRT winrate, and it's not dick measuring.

Mike, you have trod the edges of the "no drama in this thread" rules for a long time. This is your formal warning that any more questionable posts ITT will result in your banishment from it. I don't care if it's "not as bad as some others have posted." This is a lifetime achievement warning and if you do get banned from the thread it it will be for general tone issues, not that straw that breaks the camel's back.
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Old 11-03-2019, 12:30 PM   #24486
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I dont buy the "how you run" argument. Not when we are talking about long term. But then I dont play in games where people dust off $5K. And people say I play in soft games in S. Florida? LOL

In 6000 hours Ive never played a 2/5 hand with a pot over $2500. Ive probably only played 3 pots over about $1800.

I find it pretty hilarious that people think my games are soft and then I hear talk of $5000 pots and 5 sessions that account for 1/4 of a win rate.
I mostly agree. The "how you run" argument is mostly put forward by people who arent good enough to beat the current games for a solid amount, people who went busto or people who refuse to realize that it is a matter of skill when we talk longterm/several thousand hours. Yes variance is a factor mostly shortterm, but longterm winrate is one of the few factors we can objectively track.

Now, i am not saying that Ranma is one of those bad players mentioned above just to be clear.

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Old 11-03-2019, 12:40 PM   #24487
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I dont buy the "how you run" argument. Not when we are talking about long term.
Agree completely. "how you run" argument opens up a giant can of worms. If you take that line of logic into winrate, you also have to take into account how all 8 villains at a table run ("how they run").

You can't argue winrate isn't accurate because "how they run"......(long term)

Also you can't isolate the top ~5ish winning sessions and say they aren't part of your true winrate anymore then isolating the bottom ~5ish losing sessions. You can't argue that over ~2000 hrs dropping 15 top sessions and dropping 15 bottom sessions gives a more accurate winrate.

Hourly winrate isn't a perfect measure of ability, but it's pretty much the best we have (long term)
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Old 11-03-2019, 01:22 PM   #24488
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mike, i've never played in florida but I would be surprised if the reputation it has of snowbird games being soft and wild was incorrect

When snowbird season starts (right about now) the games get softer. No doubt about that. Its a drastic affect. They aren't really wild games though. Snowbird are all old guys. They aren't good at poker but they are mostly the type to call down 3 streets with TP weak kicker or pay off when an obvious FD hits. They dont jam chips in and play huge pots or raise blind or anything like that.

If you've played in S. Florida in the the winter and think the games are always like you saw, you're wrong. Its night and day between summer and winter. I doubt there's any place else with such a drastic change.


it seems pretty unbelievable you've only played 3 hands of 300+bb pots

are you seeing others play in pots this big?

Very very rarely. Ive seen 1 $5k pot between 2 maniacs who happened to both have flopped straights. I cant remember ever seeing another pot over $3k in 6000 hours

do you by any chance wear a hoodie and have headphones on and don't really engage with the rest of the snowbirds socially?

Almost everyone wears a jacket where I play because they keep the room very cold. Mine does happen to be a hoodie, but I dont put the hood up or anything like that. I dont have a back pack. I almost never wear headphones and contrary to what people here probably think I'm very engaging at the table and cut up with the other players.

I'm as loved in my room as I am hated here. Its a really weird thing.

.
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Old 11-03-2019, 01:23 PM   #24489
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I dont buy the "how you run" argument. Not when we are talking about long term. But then I dont play in games where people dust off $5K. And people say I play in soft games in S. Florida? LOL

In 6000 hours Ive never played a 2/5 hand with a pot over $2500. Ive probably only played 3 pots over about $1800.
I assume you're playing 100bb max? And pretty nitty? Cause an $1800 pot is just KK vs AA happening pre with 200bb stacks and happens not infrequently.

Quote:
I find it pretty hilarious that people think my games are soft and then I hear talk of $5000 pots and 5 sessions that account for 1/4 of a win rate.

A few days ago a guy opened 66 and ended up folding the turn to me on a J962 board when I made a huge turn check raise. We started the hand $1800 deep. Guys in my games aren't playing massive pots unless they have the nuts. Again, I dont know where you guys find guys dumping that kind of money but I guess if that's the case, then what I said isn't true. I sure dont see that kind of insanity here in S. Florida (or anywhere else Ive ever played) though and if you see that kind of craziness often enough, your win rate should be sky high and be able to absorb 1 or 2 suck outs in huge pots because you're making much more in the pots you win.
This sounds absurdly, incredibly soft. Someone is folding a set on a board with that many draws versus you, you clearly don't bluff enough (or you're crushing the game by bluffing a lot and people just never adjust). Soft doesn't just mean never folds; over folding is hugely exploitable.

On average, the game I play in is 7 nits, one loose player, and myself, and the average pot is $40. But some days it is 4 loose players, 3 nits, and myself and I get to blow up pots again and again and steal some and win some and the nits just fold and get out of the way, and the average pot size is $150, and sometimes much larger.

It may be me; I both play very loose and aggressive, and I'm a woman, and I show my bluffs, and men don't like getting bluffed. I've played 2k pots where I had a 6 high gutshot versus the nut straight, and I've played 2k pots where I called an all in with AQ versus someone's TT who got sick of my threebetting and four betting. If you aren't playing many 2k pots, and you're at a table where most people have $1000 stacks, you aren't bluffing enough.


To go directly to winrate chat: most people don't see how much variance there is in this game cause there aren't enough hours and the game moves too slow, and winrate is highly dependent on who is in the game when you sit down. I played with a guy who was raising to $100-$200 blind every hand for two hours; I won $3000, and my friend who is at least as good as me lost $7000 in those two hours. If we could sit with that guy for years we would be millionaires, but instead we only got those couple hours, and only cause we happened to be at the casino on Saturday at 9am the one time a year he shows up. I got a nice boost to my yearly winnings and my buddy got a big drop in his yearly, and it's about as random as hitting a minor BBJ.


EDIT: I want to be clear - I don't hate you at all MikeStarr. I find your posts entertaining and informative at times. I would also guess if you asked traveling pros where had the easier games - South Florida, or the Philly/AC area, they would say South Florida. I have no idea, cause I just play here, and the games seem plenty soft to me
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Old 11-03-2019, 01:25 PM   #24490
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You've gone and made your reply unquotable. Good move, Mike.
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Old 11-03-2019, 01:26 PM   #24491
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"I don't use X as Y" does not equal "X cannot be used as Y." browni talked about what he personally finds important IRT winrate, and it's not dick measuring.

Mike, you have trod the edges of the "no drama in this thread" rules for a long time. This is your formal warning that any more questionable posts ITT will result in your banishment from it. I don't care if it's "not as bad as some others have posted." This is a lifetime achievement warning and if you do get banned from the thread it it will be for general tone issues, not that straw that breaks the camel's back.
If you want to ban me, then ban me. I didnt say anything about Browni's skill level. I happened to have played with him before. He doesn't know who I am but I know who he is. He's a good player for sure.

I just said that win rate absolutely is a measure of skill level and if you dont think so, you are lying to yourself. If that's ban worthy than ban away.
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Old 11-03-2019, 01:32 PM   #24492
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Hourly winrate isn't a perfect measure of ability, but it's pretty much the best we have (long term)
With the understanding that in live cash games, the long run is actually quite long, that it takes about 2000 hours before you have played enough hands for an online grinder to actually listen to you before saying, "Yeah, I'm crushing at 7bb/100 over my lifetime, and I have had downswings that lasted longer than that."
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Old 11-03-2019, 01:37 PM   #24493
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I assume you're playing 100bb max? And pretty nitty? Cause an $1800 pot is just KK vs AA happening pre with 200bb stacks and happens not infrequently.



This sounds absurdly, incredibly soft. Someone is folding a set on a board with that many draws versus you, you clearly don't bluff enough (or you're crushing the game by bluffing a lot and people just never adjust). Soft doesn't just mean never folds; over folding is hugely exploitable.

On average, the game I play in is 7 nits, one loose player, and myself, and the average pot is $40. But some days it is 4 loose players, 3 nits, and myself and I get to blow up pots again and again and steal some and win some and the nits just fold and get out of the way, and the average pot size is $150, and sometimes much larger.

It may be me; I both play very loose and aggressive, and I'm a woman, and I show my bluffs, and men don't like getting bluffed. I've played 2k pots where I had a 6 high gutshot versus the nut straight, and I've played 2k pots where I called an all in with AQ versus someone's TT who got sick of my threebetting and four betting. If you aren't playing many 2k pots, and you're at a table where most people have $1000 stacks, you aren't bluffing enough.


To go directly to winrate chat: most people don't see how much variance there is in this game cause there aren't enough hours and the game moves too slow, and winrate is highly dependent on who is in the game when you sit down. I played with a guy who was raising to $100-$200 blind every hand for two hours; I won $3000, and my friend who is at least as good as me lost $7000 in those two hours. If we could sit with that guy for years we would be millionaires, but instead we only got those couple hours, and only cause we happened to be at the casino on Saturday at 9am the one time a year he shows up. I got a nice boost to my yearly winnings and my buddy got a big drop in his yearly, and it's about as random as hitting a minor BBJ.


EDIT: I want to be clear - I don't hate you at all MikeStarr. I find your posts entertaining and informative at times. I would also guess if you asked traveling pros where had the easier games - South Florida, or the Philly/AC area, they would say South Florida. I have no idea, cause I just play here, and the games seem plenty soft to me
Traveling pros would most likely be traveling to S. Florida in the winter. It would make no sense to come here during the summer. The weather sucks.

Im pretty sure that is why people think the games here are soft. As Ive said before, they are much much softer during the winter.

Ive never seen a guy come in raising $100-$200 blind and playing huge pots like you describe so I guess I have no frame of reference for what that does to your win rate.

My games are 200BBs max but Id guess maybe only 10% of people buy in that deep and there are hardly any deepish stacks playing big pots against each other without nutted hands. Set over set or whatever.

People say that deeper games (for good players) are much more profitable.

Assuming that's true, your win rate will be higher if people are deeper and are willing to play bigger pots. You could have more variance but that just means "long term" may be longer for you than someone else....but "long term", win rate is still best the barometer of skill level.
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Old 11-03-2019, 01:47 PM   #24494
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Ramma,

Maybe if you play in mostly nitty games but every once in a blue moon some wild guy comes in raising blind, you should separate that session out and put it in a "gambling" category. Because if you win $5K or lose $5K, that's not really a reflection of your poker skill. Its more luck, while having an obvious edge. If it skews your results that much thats what I would do.
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Old 11-03-2019, 01:48 PM   #24495
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Talking about long term on this forum is dangerous.

It’s true that WR reflects skill on the long term, but the problem is that most live players never reach the real long term on poker.

And by that I’m talking about many and many hands... I would say that long term on Poker couldn’t be less than 200.000 hands.
Some consider that 100.000 hands are good enough of a sample for the long term, wich I disagree, but let’s make an exercise with 150.000 hands.

It would mean ~5.000h playing live (30 hands/h, that we know it could be something less).

5.000h would be 3 years of full time grind playing 138h/month, all 12 months of the year.

That’s alot and I guess we can count in one hand the number of players ITT that have such a sample.

And remember... I, personally, don’t even believe it could be called long term for Poker.

So yes.... I agree that WR is a sum of skill+how you run on our discussion.
More than many could even imagine.
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Old 11-03-2019, 02:07 PM   #24496
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I don't see how it's controversial to say that winrate is a measure of:

WR = Skill + Game Conditions + (rungood/samplesize)

The same player with the same skill level will win different amounts in different games (or w/ and w/o snowbirds for example). While the short term rungood or runbad goes away as we collect a larger sample.
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Old 11-03-2019, 02:21 PM   #24497
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Here's a graph since I feel like I contributed to a bit of a derail. Each point is a different session, 80% 2/5, 5% 5/10, 15% 5/10 PLO
$89,343 won, 1417 hours, 63.04 hourly. Pretty sure I'm running above expectation by a decent amount
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Old 11-03-2019, 04:20 PM   #24498
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
Here's a graph since I feel like I contributed to a bit of a derail. Each point is a different session, 80% 2/5, 5% 5/10, 15% 5/10 PLO
$89,343 won, 1417 hours, 63.04 hourly. Pretty sure I'm running above expectation by a decent amount
That's solid. Well done, Ranma.
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Old 11-03-2019, 04:26 PM   #24499
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Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
Here's a graph since I feel like I contributed to a bit of a derail. Each point is a different session, 80% 2/5, 5% 5/10, 15% 5/10 PLO
$89,343 won, 1417 hours, 63.04 hourly. Pretty sure I'm running above expectation by a decent amount
How did you handle your break-even stretches/"downswings" in between the rungood?
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Old 11-03-2019, 06:11 PM   #24500
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Looks like maybe (1) 200 hour and (1) 250 hours breakeven stretch? That's nothing to worry about. Also, hardly any downswings of note. Great graph, Ranma!

Personally I dont like graphs with different stakes grouped together though. Especially when things as different as 2/5 HE and 5/10 PLO are in there. That could drastically change a graph if you run really hot or cold in the bigger game.
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