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Old 06-27-2021, 10:22 AM   #25476
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hell, I've lost over 700BBs in a single session in a game in which I'm beating it for about 18 BBs an hour, rather than per 100 hands.

That said, I think your SDev is unrealistically low in that sim. My SDev is about 70BBs an hour, not per hundred.

Last edited by Garick; 06-27-2021 at 10:39 AM.
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Old 06-27-2021, 10:38 AM   #25477
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Originally Posted by amirsal View Post
Then I can go play this level with a Bankroll of 4 buy ins and expect to make the said expected winnings (with the deviation of course) without going broke 95% of the times?

What's the point of the 20 buy in rule then?
I suspect it's because in larger sample sizes, you get chance of deeper downswings.

See what the calculator tells you about a sample of 30,000 or 60,000 hands which is a 1000 and 2000 hours.
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Old 06-27-2021, 10:39 AM   #25478
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Hell, I've lost over 700BBs in a single session in a game in which I'm beating it for that number of BBs an hour, rather than per 100 hands.

That said, I think your SDev is unrealistically low in that sim. My SDev is about 70BBs an hour, not per hundred.
Converting SDV per hour to per hour and the opposite is the bane of my existence. I know it's been explained before, but is there a simple formula for doing so?
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Old 06-27-2021, 10:48 AM   #25479
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It's in this thread somewhere. bip! wrote it, which should make it easier to search for. I don't remember for sure which abbreviation he used for standard deviation, though.
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Old 06-27-2021, 10:58 AM   #25480
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I think that's his point. It is way too small a BR. The variance calculator seems not to be playing NL. In particular, when looking at the screenshot, it seems to be convinced that you could never have a 1K hand stretch in which you lose more than about 550BBs, which is patently ridiculous.

I'd try a different variance calculator.
Oh I get it now. Is there a variance calculator you'd recommend?
Im considering a poker trip this summer (1 month is the duration I have in mind), and given that I have a limited amount of money I'd like to calculate the pros/cons from a financial point of view.
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Old 06-27-2021, 11:38 AM   #25481
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There are dozens of them. If you get three that give the same answers, you can likely trust that their underlying calcs are correct.

That said, where are you getting your WR and SDev numbers? That SDev seems really small for live.
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Old 06-27-2021, 12:19 PM   #25482
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Try pokerdope.
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Old 06-27-2021, 12:20 PM   #25483
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There are dozens of them. If you get three that give the same answers, you can likely trust that their underlying calcs are correct.

That said, where are you getting your WR and SDev numbers? That SDev seems really small for live.
Winrate is from a sample I have from playing daily for a month and a half in the same casino I'm planning to play at this summer. 286 hours, 25 hands an hour on average, so I calculated the bb/100 from that.

I'd use my overall winrate but that would be unrealistic (I live in Israel, where there are no casinos, so I play home games which are ridiculously soft, so my average winrate is higher than the one I have playing in a casino).

the SDev is just the average sdev this calculator suggested, no clue what my actual sdev is.
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Old 06-27-2021, 12:40 PM   #25484
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Therein lies your problem, imo. Variance calculators are generally set up for online, where the SDev is generally much tighter than live. If you search this thread, you'll see that the average SDev for winning live regs reported ITT is about 80-100BBs/hr. That is WAY higher than 70BB/100, though I don't have the time to hunt up the formula and do the math right now.
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Old 06-27-2021, 12:47 PM   #25485
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The effect that 5~9 way flops has on stdev can't be exaggerated. Live will always be much (much) higher stdev than online.

Winrate thread makes this common mistake often:
Online stdev is in /100 hands
Live is in /hr
So they go with 25 hands per hour and...
multiply their stdev by 4x (which is wrong).

The correct equivalency is sqrt(4) = 2. So their 150bb/100 is 75bb/hr live.

Then the other differences come from straddles, stack depths, loose preflop play multiway, etc.

(Sorry if you are doing stdev right already... it just is a common mistake)

----
In terms of live WR discussions - don't base decisions on what other players do or claim, base game selection on how much is lost at the table. Structures (like "2/5 NL $500 cap") do not come with a WR. Donators determine your winrate.
OK, had enough time to do this search. If you are on the low side of average SDev for live (75BB/hr), you should enter 150BB/100 in the variance calculator.
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Old 06-27-2021, 02:11 PM   #25486
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FWIW: I've found that the low side of STD DEV also coincides with the low side of WR. For those without data of their own, I would not expect that you can win 8-10bb/hr with a STD DEV of 75bb/hr.

My STD DEV over 1500hrs is closer to 120bb/hr, but my win rates are also over the 10bb/hr mark. Interestingly, if you dbl you win rate and standard deviation you also need to roughly dbl your bankroll.

So despite having a significantly higher than usual win rate, my high std dev also requires that I maintain a higher than average bankroll. I would consider 40BI - i.e. 4000bb's to be a minimum level to maintain for myself. If you nit it up with a std dev of 75bb/hr you can get a Risk of Ruin of 5% with about 20BI - that is where the 20BI rule comes from .

Remember though that RoR calculators assume you are NOT withdrawing any $$'s and all winnings are infinitely added to the BR.
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Old 06-27-2021, 02:53 PM   #25487
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This was very helpful. Pokerdope variance calculator does show more realistic results.
Thank you very much!
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Old 06-27-2021, 05:31 PM   #25488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueSpade84 View Post
FWIW: I've found that the low side of STD DEV also coincides with the low side of WR. For those without data of their own, I would not expect that you can win 8-10bb/hr with a STD DEV of 75bb/hr.

My STD DEV over 1500hrs is closer to 120bb/hr, but my win rates are also over the 10bb/hr mark. Interestingly, if you dbl you win rate and standard deviation you also need to roughly dbl your bankroll.

So despite having a significantly higher than usual win rate, my high std dev also requires that I maintain a higher than average bankroll. I would consider 40BI - i.e. 4000bb's to be a minimum level to maintain for myself. If you nit it up with a std dev of 75bb/hr you can get a Risk of Ruin of 5% with about 20BI - that is where the 20BI rule comes from .

Remember though that RoR calculators assume you are NOT withdrawing any $$'s and all winnings are infinitely added to the BR.
25 hands/h which some people are apparently getting is really slow. They must not be playing with auto-shufflers. How many hands/h do you get and what happens if you convert your statistics to 25 hands/h? If I convert my win-rate/SD in a 25-100BB 1|2 game from 40 hands/h to 25 hands/h I have 9BB/70BB per hour respectively (from 14/90)
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Old 06-28-2021, 09:54 AM   #25489
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've just lost 600bb (3 BI's) in a single session, first time I lose in that game too.
How often does this happen when you're a solid winner in your games?

Still getting used to the ups and downs of live poker.
Would be nice to know what to expect, or at least some guidelines.

I'm a very solid TAG player. Very patient, but not afraid to get all the money in when those good spots come by.
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Old 06-28-2021, 10:50 AM   #25490
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
I've just lost 600bb (3 BI's) in a single session, first time I lose in that game too.

How often does this happen when you're a solid winner in your games?



Still getting used to the ups and downs of live poker.

Would be nice to know what to expect, or at least some guidelines.



I'm a very solid TAG player. Very patient, but not afraid to get all the money in when those good spots come by.


i have 1700+ hours and 467 sessions (i constitute a session as anytime i continually play a stake, so if i play 1/3 then switch to 2/5, that would be 2 sessions in the same day)



i've lost 400bb 7 times. here is a scatter plot. x axis is hours, y axis is BBs



i can also note i've rebought into games for 600bbs only 2x (my normal 2/5 game is 1k cap, so it's really 3 BIs). usually, if i lose 2 BI (400BB) i call it a day though

Last edited by johnny_on_the_spot; 06-28-2021 at 10:56 AM.
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Old 06-28-2021, 10:52 AM   #25491
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Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
I've just lost 600bb (3 BI's) in a single session, first time I lose in that game too.
How often does this happen when you're a solid winner in your games?

Still getting used to the ups and downs of live poker.
Would be nice to know what to expect, or at least some guidelines.

I'm a very solid TAG player. Very patient, but not afraid to get all the money in when those good spots come by.
3 buyin losses happens all the time. Nothing out of the ordinary.

If the games is good and you book big wins, youre gonna see some solid losses too when variance works against you.

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Old 06-28-2021, 11:03 AM   #25492
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

johnny seems to be saying that 3 BI losses don't really happen all that often, but then again they can't happen if you quit after 2 BI's

I'm not worried at all about losing the 3 BI's, just wondering how often this happens.

I won 1400bb on Thursday, lost 350bb on Friday and then lost another 600bb on Sunday.
Just a bit crazy for me, especially since I'm not used to handling amounts of money this large.
They're the lowest live games available and I have a decent bankroll so, just gotta get used to it.

Both games where I lost were extremely soft, several players calling literally anything pre with almost any hand.
Just didn't hit much and didn't get many big pairs, my smaller pairs lost a lot of flips.
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Old 06-28-2021, 11:21 AM   #25493
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
I've just lost 600bb (3 BI's) in a single session, first time I lose in that game too.
How often does this happen when you're a solid winner in your games?

Still getting used to the ups and downs of live poker.
Would be nice to know what to expect, or at least some guidelines.

I'm a very solid TAG player. Very patient, but not afraid to get all the money in when those good spots come by.
I stand if I lose 2.5 buy ins (500bb). I've had 2 sessions where I've lost $2000+ at 2/5, and 2 sessions where I've lost 2k+ at 5/0 PLO. Over 347 sessions
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Old 06-28-2021, 11:23 AM   #25494
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It is a common occurrence. And I beat the games at a pretty good clip.

ETA: not common, but not out of the ordinary.
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Old 06-28-2021, 11:25 AM   #25495
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4-5 buyins in a session is normal. So is losing 2-4 sessions in a row. So you should always be ready to lose 20 buyins and then you need to make sure you have enough left over to grind if you do lose 20buyins.

This is why you need a 50 buyin roll
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Old 06-28-2021, 11:33 AM   #25496
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I once heard someone make the point that "big wins are insurance against big losses", and that really stuck with me. Your 1400 BB winning session allows you to lose 350 BB and 600 BB the next two sessions and still profit an average of 150 BB/session.
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Old 06-28-2021, 11:40 AM   #25497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
I've just lost 600bb (3 BI's) in a single session, first time I lose in that game too.
How often does this happen when you're a solid winner in your games?

Still getting used to the ups and downs of live poker.
Would be nice to know what to expect, or at least some guidelines.

I'm a very solid TAG player. Very patient, but not afraid to get all the money in when those good spots come by.
Really depends on both your style of play and the type of game you play in, imo.

I'm pretty sure I've only had a 600bb+ / $1800+ *downswing* just 3 times in my ~5000 hours of 1/3 NL. In 627 sessions, I've recorded just 2 losing sessions over $1000 (worst being $1200 / 400bb which was mostly terrible play on my part).

But I have a very nitty style in a game that mostly plays relatively smallish.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 06-28-2021, 12:01 PM   #25498
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I once heard someone make the point that "big wins are insurance against big losses", and that really stuck with me. Your 1400 BB winning session allows you to lose 350 BB and 600 BB the next two sessions and still profit an average of 150 BB/session.
Losing sessions are the price you pay so that people come back and give you monster wins.

Once you’re a winning player your losses are irrelevant(assuming brm) as you’ll always win it back
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Old 06-28-2021, 12:45 PM   #25499
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Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
johnny seems to be saying that 3 BI losses don't really happen all that often, but then again they can't happen if you quit after 2 BI's

I'm not worried at all about losing the 3 BI's, just wondering how often this happens.

I won 1400bb on Thursday, lost 350bb on Friday and then lost another 600bb on Sunday.
Just a bit crazy for me, especially since I'm not used to handling amounts of money this large.
They're the lowest live games available and I have a decent bankroll so, just gotta get used to it.

Both games where I lost were extremely soft, several players calling literally anything pre with almost any hand.
Just didn't hit much and didn't get many big pairs, my smaller pairs lost a lot of flips.


Seems perfectly normal to me in what can happen in a soft/wild livegame, even to a player beating the game at a good clip.

It may be the case that you made som mistakes or -EV plays along the way too as i dont know your game well enough- but it for sure doesent need to be the case. You could have played perfectly fine, and this kind of swings will still happen.
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Old 06-28-2021, 12:48 PM   #25500
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Really depends on both your style of play and the type of game you play in, imo.

I'm pretty sure I've only had a 600bb+ / $1800+ *downswing* just 3 times in my ~5000 hours of 1/3 NL. In 627 sessions, I've recorded just 2 losing sessions over $1000 (worst being $1200 / 400bb which was mostly terrible play on my part).

But I have a very nitty style in a game that mostly plays relatively smallish.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Yeah, and because of that supernitty scared of variance playing style i find it not that useful because you arent booking many big wins either with that super nitty style. You are likely passing on lots of spots wich are contributing to that lower variance wich will establish itself in both small amount of big losses, as well as small amounts of big wins. Most players on this board wants to maxmize their winrate, and with that added variance comes with it. Its inevitable.

Like sure, if all i wanted to do is to make sure i didnt went into a losing streak i could play only AA/KK/QQ and setmine with small PP. Its like manipulating variance,and i would very likely had a bunch of breakevenish sessions with very very few large swings.
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