Quote:
Originally Posted by baumer
You're winning by 3 skins on the third last hole. The previous hole was tied and 2nd place ****ed up so he can't win/draw this hole. Both you and last place are 3 feet from the hole.
If you both make the putt it gives 2nd place an opportunity to catch you by winning all the skins on the next hole. If you miss the gimme and last place makes it, you are a lock to win the game since 2nd place can only get 2 skins, not the 4 possible if it was a push.
Assuming player 3 can't come back and break even (he has 2 or less skins since 15 are up for grabs). For the following info I assumed the skin break down is 20-17-2 right now. I also made the assumption that the 3 players actual average advantage is = to their current skin distribution. Also I assumed we make our 3' put 90% of the time and player 3 makes their 3' put 85% of the time.
Our EV for trying to win the 15th hole is our current 20 skins + 7.82 skins.
Our EV for trying to tie the hole is our current 20 skins + 7.69 skins.
Our EV for trying to lose the hole is our current 20 skins + 4.62 skins.
Anyone know how to copy and past an excel spreadsheet so I can show work?