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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

12-13-2010 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdiggz
MyHandle - I still think your biggest leak is in blinds play. you call way too much. playing OOP with no initiative really sucks. cold call less and 3bet/squeeze (esp vs. CO/BU opens) or fold a lot more. i would guess that you get little value when you flop best and probably get value owned a ton when you have a 2nd best hand. if you dont want to 3bet a lot of these hands, just fold rather than call - you will do better.

is this rush? how many tables are you playing

you may want to drop a few tables to better focus and that help improve your game.
hey bro any comments on my stats from last page?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-13-2010 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zampono
hey bro any comments on my stats from last page?
ok, a couple quick things.

1) your results seem pretty good. its a bit swingy but my guess is that has a lot to do with your level of aggression

2) you fold too much! especially on the flop. you should def float some more than you do. float flop/steal turn vs players that have high flop c-bet but give up turns.

3) EP/MP you seem to not be postionally aware preflop. so you can play more hands the closer you get to the button. for ex., if you play ~10% EP, then MP you should play like 13%. you are pretty flat EP-MP. loosen up as you move closer to BU.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-13-2010 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdiggz
MyHandle - I still think your biggest leak is in blinds play. you call way too much. playing OOP with no initiative really sucks. cold call less and 3bet/squeeze (esp vs. CO/BU opens) or fold a lot more. i would guess that you get little value when you flop best and probably get value owned a ton when you have a 2nd best hand. if you dont want to 3bet a lot of these hands, just fold rather than call - you will do better.

is this rush? how many tables are you playing

you may want to drop a few tables to better focus and that help improve your game.
It's not rush. I used to play 12 tables, but have dropped it to 8 or 9 now.

I am still working on blind play.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-13-2010 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdiggz
ok, a couple quick things.
Hi... Any quick pointers you can give me regarding my stats on post #3545? I greatly appreciate it.

Kind of ashamed of my meager results, sorry for hiding them.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-13-2010 , 05:44 PM
Fatback -

-16% VPIP is a little loose. you may be better off 16/13 or 14/12. obviously if you are comfortable playing loose, you should continue to do that. its kind of a minor point.

--one way to do that might be to 3bet more. rather than cc from BU/CO, 3bet. in fact, you probably should 3bet more from MP, too. dont let the BU/CO in cheaply, with position on you in a multiway pot. get it heads up with position.

--with regard to 2barrelling. look for spots that you pick up equity, even if you dont have a made hand, yet. I think DDAWD gave some similar advice.

--more general your WTSD is on the low side but that might be due to your aggression and your preflop VPIP. you might take a look at this a little more in depth. for example, look at hands that you see a river but don't show down - are there some hands that could be shown down?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-13-2010 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdiggz
Fatback -
Thank you pdiggz.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-13-2010 , 07:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyHandle
It's not rush. I used to play 12 tables, but have dropped it to 8 or 9 now.

I am still working on blind play.
To add to the above. I have lost 12 buy-ins since yesterday. I think my biggest problem is hand reading. Without it, you will get crushed at any level and I just don't think it is something that can be taught. Some people have like a sixth sense (ESP) type of thing going on that I just don't have (Durrr, Negraneu, Antonius and all those guys just "have it." In fact, I heard Antonius say one day on HSP that he has never read a single poker book nor had a single coaching lesson -- not one. I find that incredible). I guess it's sort of like athetic ability; some people have it, most don't. Much like chess -- some kids are prodigies. No matter how hard the rest of us study GM chess games, we will never get rated above 2000.

I have read several books, with NLHTAP being the only one applicable to NLHE. The book is good in theory but to put it to practice is impossible unless you are John Nash or some Nobel prize winning mathematician. But even if you could do EV caluclations in your head, those calculations all depend upon hand reading. So basically, I could write a book with one sentence "If you want to win at Poker, you have to know what your opponent is holding, or at least narrow it down drastically. If you can't, you lose." And that really is the bottom line. The Fundamental Theorem of Poker is all anyone needs to know to be a winning player. The problem is most of us aren't good enough (or naturally talented enough) to apply it.

All the math in the world only works if you know what your opponent holds or how likely he is to call or fold in a situation (mind reading). If you can't do that, then all the superfluous math contained in NLHTAP is worse than worthless. I don't know about you, but I find it hard to sit there and think "OK, my opponent has a 70% chance of calling a bet of $2, a 20% chance of calling $3 and a 10% chance of calling an all-in." Sure, if I knew those percentages were accurate, I could make +EV plays all day. But who can really predict the actions of opponents with such accuracy? Anyone, anyone? Moreover, who has the time to do equations in one's head while multi-tabling? Does anyone here really do that? No. I suspect the best players (even online players) go by feel. They just "know" the right play.

Since there are so many loose players at the micros (30-90 VPIP) I find it impossible to read their hands since they will be holding any two cards. I had a guy who moved in on me with 7-2 the other day (he had two pair on the board, but luckily I had the flush). And, as I have said before, these loose players are always the ones who crush the tables (some of them are just lucky, and some sort of know what they're doing). I have watched the regs at my tables pretty closely and the ones who win the most (there's 3 I have in mind) each have a VPIP of exactly 18%. They are something like 18/14/3. All three of them. So there must be something to this 18% VPIP thing.

I think I need to start from scratch -- at ground zero -- if I ever want to improve. My game just isn't working. Losing $60 in one day at $5NL is pretty tough to handle. No matter how hard I grind for the day, I will get up maybe one buy-in by careful methodical play only to lose 2 buy-ins in a few minutes to set over set or a fish hitting a miracle straight without odds. I just see no way to overcome the coolers and beats. I don't ever run hot enough to win more than I lose.
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12-13-2010 , 08:27 PM
MyHandle - we all go through tough times + stretches of bad play, and its frustrating - you arent alone there.

However, after 100k+ hands at 5NL you should have some idea of player ranges (maybe not specific players but general player types). in addition you shouldnt be making some of the same mistakes you were making at the start (ie, you make mistakes, learn, get better and dont make those mistake as often or at all). make sure you arent still making "rookie" mistakes.

go back to the basics - play hands for value. no bluffs (except for position steals preflop and flop cbets). bet hands for value and continue betting until you get raised.

sometimes during bad stretches we start to overthink and try to play with 35th level thinking when we should play with first-level (because everyone is playing so basic). so dont overthink and out think yourself.

also do your homework away from the table. play with programs like pokerstove to figure out your equity in certain common situations. what is your equity on the flop with the nutflush draw vs. top pair? vs a set? knowing exact %'s isnt as important as being able to "ballpark" them at the table. (if you have 42% equity, its usually good enough to know its 40-45%.) no one does calculations in game.
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12-13-2010 , 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdiggz
BWillie - a few things.

---you probably can play a few more hands from BU/CO

---your WTSD seems low. although your W$SD is around where it should be. you want to explore this a bit. are you folding hands that have SD value? are calling down in some bad spots?

---it sounds like you are working on improving blinds play which always helps. 1 thing i noticed about you play in SB is how few hands you play. do you quick fold SB a lot? the reason i ask is that a suprisingly large number of hands get folded to SB. if you dont quick fold, you should get some more steal chances.
Hey thanks alot for answering. Maybe my WTSD is low because I don't double barrell much. I almost never double barrel w/ air or even midpair good kicker. Which leads to alot of people betting at me on the turn or making a big bet on the river that I fold to. Maybe I should do more double barreling even at 5NL? I guess I just get the feeling at these levels that people don't know how to fold and it's just not worth it.

And yes, I quick fold SB alot. Or at least I used to. It just feels like a grind when I wait around to dick w/ the big blind but hey, I bet I can get away w/ stealing the big blind successfully 1-2 times a 100 hands so that is definitely something I will work at.
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12-13-2010 , 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdiggz
ok, a couple quick things.

1) your results seem pretty good. its a bit swingy but my guess is that has a lot to do with your level of aggression

2) you fold too much! especially on the flop. you should def float some more than you do. float flop/steal turn vs players that have high flop c-bet but give up turns.

3) EP/MP you seem to not be postionally aware preflop. so you can play more hands the closer you get to the button. for ex., if you play ~10% EP, then MP you should play like 13%. you are pretty flat EP-MP. loosen up as you move closer to BU.
Thanks I noticed I fold almost all the time to C-bets on the flop. Im letting people run over me and losing alot of possible $. Im still learning how to use PT stats and was only paying attention to VPIP PFR CCPF before but now im lookign at the other pages in the hud. I <3 the fold to three bet stat thats been making me alot of money lately
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12-13-2010 , 10:07 PM
Hi! This is my first post on the site and it happens to be a graphs/stats post =O

I have been playing online off and on over a few years. I would casually play while browsing forums, reading several poker books, watching videos, etc. to better my game. I spent the majority of my time at STTs, although I messed around with MTTs and micro ring. I have just recently, within the past month and a half or so, started putting in volume at FR and am having trouble winning at 2NL.

I have attached stats and graph below and I was just wondering if anyone had any general advice for me. I know I have to adjust how I play in the SB, and possibly open up OTB. I need to also try to find spots to 3bet more, whether that be 3betting in the blinds vs LP steals, 3betting lighter in LP, etc. I am not sure and would like some opinions.

Does anyone have any suggestion towards my falling red line? I am not sure how to fix this, and where I should be looking to reach a solution.

Thanks in advance to any/all replies!




Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-14-2010 , 12:32 AM
JSlice, don't worry about 3betting at 2NL. Most of those people don't even know what a 3bet is and they certainly wont fold to one (I had a guy call a raise from an UTG raiser and then I put in a 3bet from button and he called it too with a 10-7. This was 5NL.). You should only 3bet 2 hands -- AA and KK if you plan to 3bet at all. No one is paying attention and no one is going to "put you on a range" so you don't have to worry about them knowing your 3bet range.

OTB, I would raise it almost every time it is folded to you. Sometimes people will play back at you, so if you have trash just fold. It will work often enough to be profitable in the long run.

Your falling red line is inevitable at these stakes. No one folds, hence you don't win much without seeing showdown. In other words, there is rarely any fold equity at 2NL. People will call you to the river with bottom pair and gutshots (since they're idiots and don't have a clue about odds). Get used to it, it is what it is. Your big hands, however, will be very profitable as a result. But you should rarely if ever bluff (never bluff is probably the best advice).
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12-14-2010 , 01:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyHandle
JSlice, don't worry about 3betting at 2NL. Most of those people don't even know what a 3bet is and they certainly wont fold to one (I had a guy call a raise from an UTG raiser and then I put in a 3bet from button and he called it too with a 10-7. This was 5NL.). You should only 3bet 2 hands -- AA and KK if you plan to 3bet at all. No one is paying attention and no one is going to "put you on a range" so you don't have to worry about them knowing your 3bet range.

OTB, I would raise it almost every time it is folded to you. Sometimes people will play back at you, so if you have trash just fold. It will work often enough to be profitable in the long run.

Your falling red line is inevitable at these stakes. No one folds, hence you don't win much without seeing showdown. In other words, there is rarely any fold equity at 2NL. People will call you to the river with bottom pair and gutshots (since they're idiots and don't have a clue about odds). Get used to it, it is what it is. Your big hands, however, will be very profitable as a result. But you should rarely if ever bluff (never bluff is probably the best advice).
Thank you for the reply. Although, I am not sure I entirely agree with only 3betting AA and KK, it just seems way too tight. Saying "no one" is paying attention, imo, isn't entirely true. I often find myself playing vs villains I have history with. I color code them to help me table select better.

The falling redline explanation helps, thank you. I admit I probably try to bluff a little too often, at least when OOP, something I am trying to fix.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-14-2010 , 01:23 PM
I add QQ to the 3 bet range at 2NL. And I call short stacks pf all in with very little (aq/aj/jj/tt/sometimes 99/88)
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-14-2010 , 02:00 PM
Great post! A perfect example of what ones PT stats should look like.
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12-15-2010 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyHandle
To add to the above. I have lost 12 buy-ins since yesterday. I think my biggest problem is hand reading. Without it, you will get crushed at any level and I just don't think it is something that can be taught. Some people have like a sixth sense (ESP) type of thing going on that I just don't have (Durrr, Negraneu, Antonius and all those guys just "have it." In fact, I heard Antonius say one day on HSP that he has never read a single poker book nor had a single coaching lesson -- not one. I find that incredible). I guess it's sort of like athetic ability; some people have it, most don't. Much like chess -- some kids are prodigies. No matter how hard the rest of us study GM chess games, we will never get rated above 2000.

I have read several books, with NLHTAP being the only one applicable to NLHE. The book is good in theory but to put it to practice is impossible unless you are John Nash or some Nobel prize winning mathematician. But even if you could do EV caluclations in your head, those calculations all depend upon hand reading. So basically, I could write a book with one sentence "If you want to win at Poker, you have to know what your opponent is holding, or at least narrow it down drastically. If you can't, you lose." And that really is the bottom line. The Fundamental Theorem of Poker is all anyone needs to know to be a winning player. The problem is most of us aren't good enough (or naturally talented enough) to apply it.

All the math in the world only works if you know what your opponent holds or how likely he is to call or fold in a situation (mind reading). If you can't do that, then all the superfluous math contained in NLHTAP is worse than worthless. I don't know about you, but I find it hard to sit there and think "OK, my opponent has a 70% chance of calling a bet of $2, a 20% chance of calling $3 and a 10% chance of calling an all-in." Sure, if I knew those percentages were accurate, I could make +EV plays all day. But who can really predict the actions of opponents with such accuracy? Anyone, anyone? Moreover, who has the time to do equations in one's head while multi-tabling? Does anyone here really do that? No. I suspect the best players (even online players) go by feel. They just "know" the right play.

Since there are so many loose players at the micros (30-90 VPIP) I find it impossible to read their hands since they will be holding any two cards. I had a guy who moved in on me with 7-2 the other day (he had two pair on the board, but luckily I had the flush). And, as I have said before, these loose players are always the ones who crush the tables (some of them are just lucky, and some sort of know what they're doing). I have watched the regs at my tables pretty closely and the ones who win the most (there's 3 I have in mind) each have a VPIP of exactly 18%. They are something like 18/14/3. All three of them. So there must be something to this 18% VPIP thing.

I think I need to start from scratch -- at ground zero -- if I ever want to improve. My game just isn't working. Losing $60 in one day at $5NL is pretty tough to handle. No matter how hard I grind for the day, I will get up maybe one buy-in by careful methodical play only to lose 2 buy-ins in a few minutes to set over set or a fish hitting a miracle straight without odds. I just see no way to overcome the coolers and beats. I don't ever run hot enough to win more than I lose.
It looks like you make things more complicated than they are. Most opponents at NL5 are rather straightforward. They may make lose calls, but when they start betting postflop they mostly have it. Where the exact meaning of "it" depends a bit on the villain, but it's usually at least top pair. Moreover their betsizing is often indicative of their hand strength. So if you face a big river bet IP you can usually safely fold. Don't tell yourself "he can't have T7, he has at least 20% bluffs in his range...." If he bets pot all of the sudden, he's usually showing you the nuts. If he isn't, make a note.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-15-2010 , 05:15 PM
@MyHandle

I felt exactly the same way as this when I started playing, and losing. I felt like i needed to know the exact hand someone held otherwise they were getting value out of me. Putting people on ranges is the next step, instead of figuring out exactly what they have try and figure out a good range of hands to put people on.

But even that is hard some times, and at NL5 its not totally necessary, what Cangurino said above is very applicable but i would also read the COTW's on Flop/Board Texture. If you can't put your opponent on an exact hand you can at least learn what flops are good to c-bet on and when you should just wave the white flag and give up a hand.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-15-2010 , 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scooter1982
@MyHandle

I felt exactly the same way as this when I started playing, and losing. I felt like i needed to know the exact hand someone held otherwise they were getting value out of me. Putting people on ranges is the next step, instead of figuring out exactly what they have try and figure out a good range of hands to put people on.

But even that is hard some times, and at NL5 its not totally necessary, what Cangurino said above is very applicable but i would also read the COTW's on Flop/Board Texture. If you can't put your opponent on an exact hand you can at least learn what flops are good to c-bet on and when you should just wave the white flag and give up a hand.
Thank you (and Cangurino) for your comments. I cbet a lot (around 80%). I probably need to lower that a bit, but overall it has been decently successful I think (especially against fit or fold nits). Sometimes against maniacs or loose players, I just c/f a flop with AK/AQ if I hit nothing (even though I am probably getting bluffed out some percentage of the time by hands like A-10 or KJ).

I didn't mean to bash NLHTAP, it is actually a great book. There are some gems in the "Concepts" section at the back (which is where they get away from theory and EV equations and delve into practical examples and advice). They say more than once that if you are OOP and you fire two streets with TPTK and you get a call both times, it is probably time to c/f river.

Another good point was they say in a multi-way pot if the first to act bets and the second guy cold calls, even if you have TPTK, it is usually a fold on the spot. I have had a bad habit of not doing either of these things, so it's probably a leak.
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12-17-2010 , 05:02 PM
Hey all

A few months ago I decided to start taking poker a little more seriously. My goal was to do 50k hands at each level before moving up...after 42k hands at 2nl I have become impatient....I am going to move up to 5nl. However, I wanted to get your all opinions on my graph/stats before I begin.

much thx!

Game Type Description $0.01/0.02 NL Game Hands 42352
VPIP% 22.2
PFR% 8.6
PFR/VPIP Ratio 38.6
3Bet% 2.5
Flop CBet% 66.6
River Agg% 18.4
Flop CBet% Success 51.9
Turn CBet% 33.3
Flop Fold vs Cbet 73.8
Flop vs Raise Fold% 50%
Steal Pct 26.5
Early UO PFR 6.3
Middle UO PFR 15.1
Cutoff UO PFR 23.1
Button UO PFR 26.1
SB UO PFR 34.6
Preflop Positional Awareness 4.15
River Call Efficiency 1.98
SB Reraise Steal 4.4
BB Reraise Steal 3.4
SB Fold to Steal 82.9
BB Fold to Steal 60.4
W$woSD ($150.75)
W$atSD $223.55
vs 3Bet Fold% 48.4
vs 3Bet Call% 37.8
vs 3Bet Raise% 13.7
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-18-2010 , 12:43 AM
thats a pretty high vp for full ring... and subsequently very low pfr compared. i would assume you are probably calling too many hands preflop and should consider folding more.

also probably fold bb to steal a lot more often and call 3bets way less. idk, just tighten up your game if you plan on moving up.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-18-2010 , 04:23 PM
Hey everyone!

This is my first post @ 2+2. I have been playing poker non-seriously for many years. When I did play online I was about a break even player, but I would always go above & beyond what my bankroll could handle.

I have just graduated from college with a 2 year Digital Media & Animation Degree. I've been reading a lot of threads on FR uNL, and have been starting to take poker much more seriously. I'm currently reading The Poker Mindset, which is an extremely important book in regards to self control and understanding poker in a logical manner.

My friend recently transferred me $10 on Full Tilt a month ago, and I have been playing mainly Rush Poker since. I really want to step up my game and become an enlightened player. I knew I had to become part of the 2+2 community to do that.

Here are my stats and graph over 40k hands for 5NL Rush. I know it's a fairly small sample, but I have to start somewhere! Any general advice about my stats or graph is much appreciated!

Graph:



Stats:


-----

-----

-----

-----


Other Questions:

How do I interpret the all-in EV line?
What are some great poker books that have to do with theory, esp. for Full Ring NLHE?

I look forward to your advice and suggestions. Thanks all!
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-18-2010 , 05:58 PM
I'm playing NL10 since the end of September and I need to improve my game cuz I want to reach $500 in my bankroll before the new year in order to move up to NL25. I usually play a LAG style, I isolate and steal the blinds a lot, normally I play 20/17. I dont know what to improve and as you can see at my graph below it's is full of spikes which drives me crazy ... I think I'm a bad player when facing a 3bet, I usually fold to 3bets with frustration.

Graph Overall
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/1...aphoverall.png
Details Overall
http://img709.imageshack.us/img709/5...ilsoverall.png
Position Stats Overall
http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/9...atsoverall.png

Graph Last 12k Hands
http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/7...st12khands.png
Details Last 12k Hands
http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/2...st12khands.png
Position Stats Last 12k Hands
http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/731...last12khan.png

Last Sessions
http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/2...stsessions.jpg

Thanks for any help.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-20-2010 , 02:29 AM
So I was beating Rush 5 NLHE at 2.93 BB/100 over almost 78,000 hands. But now that I'm at Rush 10 NLHE, I'm losing at -0.41 BB/100 over 41,000 hands. Below are my stats for Rush 10 NLHE. Any advice about my major leaks is appreciated.



Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-20-2010 , 10:41 AM
I know lolsamplesize but I just wanted a quick checkup.



Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
12-21-2010 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deacon Blues
Hey everyone!

...

Here are my stats and graph over 40k hands for 5NL Rush. I know it's a fairly small sample, but I have to start somewhere! Any general advice about my stats or graph is much appreciated!
Welcome Deacon!

Your stats show good positional awareness (playing more hands in late position), and your preflop raise percentage is healthfully high relative to your VPIP.

Here are the only suggestions I have:
  1. VPIP of 9% is super low. Open up your starting hands in middle to late position. (Your pre-flop raise percentage should go up proportionally, of course.)
  2. Attempt to steal at 19% is low. Shoot for something closer to 25-30%.
  3. Your W$SD is maybe slightly high (you have 58% and shouldn't really be over 55% for a TAG). This suggests you might be folding the winning hand on the river a little too often.

You also asked about the all-in EV line and book recommendations. I think the all-in line doesn't show much of anything. Theoretically, it shows whether you are running bad or running lucky. But it only measures all-in situations, which are just one small part of your game.

I think the best book for you at this stage is Harrington's full ring cash game book (in two volumes). Don't confuse it with his tournament books (in three volumes) or his short-handed book (in one volume). All of them are good, but you want the one specific to the kind of game you are playing.
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