anyone want to give me 3:1 odds that he's innocent?

Innocent until suspected guilty ITT. Imo this clearly now fully rests in stars hands, either they find him guilty and ban him or whatever and bettors win, or he is innocent and he wins.

Well you are condemning Gary because someone else (i.e. not him) forgot to mention some fact/association (i.e. being a friend of a friend, or a student i forget, to lazy to go back).

Perhaps you were just skewing your evidence to make you look smart in finding the conspiracy that was never there?

To suggest that just because this guy should be unbiased doesn't mean he isn't going to look for evidence to support "cheating". It is a very easy mind set to get in.. I'm pretty sure we should view this guys evidence from a "prosecutor" point of view as he's trying to convince us of his case. Why else would we see so much circumstantial statistical nonsense as more than just that.

now i can agree with you.

on a side note, i didnt even think about the possibility of stars support helping out and didnt even consider the possibility that they might ban garys account if they find him guilty here. wow, i can not wait for this stars update to come.

one more note for the night.

put ur self in garys shoes for the moment in both of these situations . . .

he is innoncent and can now breathe a sigh of relief as he knows stars will find nothing wrong and does not have to deal with us witch hunters trying to get his head while hils money is being held by a different indivudual. (im a witch hunter btw)

or

he is guilty and now he sees stars support has agreed to do an investigation. now he is in big trouble, he knows that eventually they will find chip dumping and then will close his account down and confiscate all the money in his account. now not only will he lose the 2500 prop bet but he will not even have the money to ship back to his dumpers.

i cant imagine what the latter must feel like if it is the case. my stomach would be turning.

The thing is Stars support and Jalex see the exact same thing unless Gary was dumb enough to transfer money to those guys. I think the odds of Stars finding anything more is close to 0%.

If he's guilty I have no sympathy for him at all.

FWIW I agree with Zachvac re: stars finding much of anything. Still really cool of them to take the time to help out.

I'd like to suggest that while Stars is initiating their investigation, that Gary is forced to escrow additional money to claim his innocence.

I think we all know that Stars errs on the side of caution before condemning a cheater, so while they will catch him some % of the time, there are times where he gets away with it because there is not enough evidence. They will basically never wrongfully accuse him.

If Gary is 100% sure he did not cheat, escrowing additional money should not be a big deal to him. It might hassle him for a few days if his bankroll is low, but if he is not too near busto it shouldn't affect him at all. This was not part of the original bet, but I think it will settle the masses that he is willing to put up money that he did not cheat now that Stars support is brought into light as they have access to much more information than the judges do. It also allows the bettors to not get freerolled for when Stars does reach a decision that Gary is innocent due to lack of evidence, as I said before they will never condemn him wrongfully, but may let him go even if he did cheat because of lack of evidence.

this is a terrible idea lol

god help me if i'm ever in a position where bbv is my judge/jury/executioner

Is this the post you're asking about? Obviously you are objecting, but I didn't see a question.

I don't hold your money so you don't have to worry about what I think. Personally, I think there's cheating going on, for all the reasons I posted, so I personally wouldn't have felt comfortable returning your money or calling you the winner. That's why prop bets are stupid, because in the event you ARE innocent, right now you're in a very very ****ty spot.

And if you ARE innocent, frankly coming from a successful player....the entire bet from your side is completely ******ED unless you are angle shooting. Again, simplest explanation ftw, and with the evidence I've seen, that explanation is angle shooting.

Hey, Gary, we think you cheated but why don't you go ahead and send us some extra money to hold until we know for sure.

So Gary loses the monies he escrowed.

Loses the 3:1 bet (thousands and thousands).

Loses the money he dumped during the prop bet.

Loses the remaining amount in his poker account (money distributed to the cheated players who were sitting at Gary's tables; plus, no withdrawals or transfers pending an investigation like this).

Loses his ability to post on 2+2 (banned for scamming).

And his friends don't get their money refunded (the ones who dumped to him).

And those friends get banned from 2+2 for being party to a scamming as well.

Wow.

I think pokerstars isnt going to come out and say either extreme "absolute proof of collusion" or "zero proof of collusion." It's going to be along the lines of what jalex pointed out. And that's damning enough.

In before Gary is banned. And nostalgica. And nostalgica's other screen name.

All,

I don't care about this bet personally as I have no interest and no real opinion as I think the evidence isn't enough to say guilty but there is quite a case made here. The thing that scares me is future prop bets, its almost easy to find a ****** in 10k hand so think of prop bets w 400k etc etc there would/will be so many "chip dumps" that are legit and the 2p2 mob could easily create a problem.

I said earlier but the results of this prop bet make me skeptical if I'll ever take part in ones again as it seems more than likely "evidence" could be put against the person grinding. This is an unfortunate situation as 2p2 prop bets are easily the best waste of time during the grind. Hopefully someone says something to show me why i'm wrong becuase I'm kinda sad about this lol.

cliffs:

this worrys me for future props as it is easy to find bajunky in a 10k samples so imagine 400k

why is this a terrible idea? the investigation will not take longer than two weeks, and likely to be much sooner. he is tying up some funds to prove his innocence, which if he did not cheat, he will get back 100% of the time

yeah running it again would be worst option imo.

im objective btw (no interest in either side) and i really have no idea what to make of it. keep going back and forth.

yeah i doubt a sigh of relief is ever going through his mind if he is innocent here.

not necessarly, when you run a poker client it keeps track of EVERYTHING you are doing on your computer. what internet browsers u have open and what web pages u are looking at. i dont know to what extent they can see but they can see a lot of information.

now i guess this does not apply if people are saying gary was chatting on his lap top but was playing on his desktop.

also stars can see all hole cards, but once again u cant find damning evidence in a "misclick"

so basically gary would have to have been dumb enough to transfer the money one way or the other.

so now that stars is involved and if gary didnt transfer money he should be pretty happy for now

You seem like a.. uhm... committed fellow... But seriously, I think there's some confirmation bias going on in here. You don't seem to like these prop bets and you dont seem to like Gary in general, so you think everything suspicious is actually something nefarious instead of a coincidence?

um

HEY BBV DUDES THAT SOUNDS AWESOME!!!

i have no money on this bet btw, but it's obviously a really interesting thread to follow.

if he is cheating, he deserves to lose more money than he bet because he gets away with cheating a % of the time but almost never gets accused of cheating wrongfully once stars support is brought into the picture.

considering there is some pretty damning evidence against him for now, i dont see why putting him under strict scrutiny is a lol idea. you have to pay bail before your court hearing

And if he did cheat, everyone will get their money. This happened in atleast one previous prop bet on stars where the prop bettor cheated (with chip dumping) and Stars banned/closed his account.

The money that is in the escrows hands at this moment is presumably clean. It was sent before this prop bet started, and if Gary is a losing/BE player as everyone is stating, I doubt he's some habitual cheater.

I originally wanted to rule him the winner. I have nothing to gain here, and something to lose/tarnish that I value very highly - my reputation.

I think the odds stars confirms a relationship between Nostalgica and the suspected chipdumpers is significantly higher than 0%. Guilt doesn't require Gary being the party that had transfers with those guys imo. If one of Gary's friends was organizing chipdumping to him, he loses. I'd love to see someone come up with an argument against that.

Not really cool, it's good business. I've posted potential evidence of chipdumping, collusion, and attempted defrauding of other Stars players. Pretty serious stuff.

+1.

do you have any actual reasons for it being a terrible idea besides random one liners?

You're missing an opportunity here... They added judges post bet, you should apply to be a new escrow, and get this 'hey you cheated' money sent to you.

1) $$$ profit.

Why are you posting. Nobody cares.