I was saying the same thing for Alabama when they were coming off back-to-back huge games against Arkansas and Florida going into South Carolina which was actually less of a letdown situation since the Gamecocks were at least ranked, saying that the line should be PK when it was actually -7 and we all saw what happened there. And then I said the same thing again when South Carolina went to Kentucky the week after they'd just played Auburn and Alabama and big shocker, they went down too. Trust me, this letdown/lookahead stuff is huge in college football. Even a one week letdown or lookahead is usually worth at least 3 points, and it's almost impossible for a team to play well on the road after two premiere wins the weeks before like that. Like I said, I'm not saying Auburn can't win, just that Auburn's a lot more likely to get upset this week than Iowa or Nebraska.

BTW, was looking over the Cavalcade of Whimsy on CFN and Fiutak actually compared Bob Stoops to Les Miles for going for 2 down 9 with 6:00 left. It made me so angry that I had to scroll down before I finished reading the paragraph out of being legitimately scared that I might smash my laptop in anger. Seriously, it's like someone analyzing a chess match and criticizing a play so obviously right that all the top 7 year olds would get it right 100% of the time.

So glad Scootin' Newton is playing for Gus Mahlzahn instead of Adazzio.

who do you have iowa losing another game to if you have them beating osu and msu? They only have 1 confrence loss at this point. You think they are going to beat osu and msu and lose to nw, minny, or indiana?

Oops, brain cramp. I actually had the Hawkeyes in there at first, and then thought I screwed up and went through the tiebreaking procedure and then edited it. Please consider the Buckeyes removed and the Hawkeyes my Rose Bowl projection at 10-2.

Gotcha. I think its going to be a tough go for iowa, but if they could just stop the ******** high school mistakes, they could be a really really good team. Its going to be interesting either way. Stanzi and the offense is so much better this year

If that happens, there is a zero percent chance that any BCS bowl takes TCU over Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Michigan State. The odds that all of these teams are below #12 with only 2 losses is pretty extreme. Sorry TCU, you only go if no one anyone wants is eligible.

If Boise lost to Nevada, would TCU get an auto-bid?

Most likely yes, but of course not guaranteed.

So they would have to finish outside of the top 12 or another non-BCS team would have to finish ahead of them. Or they could finish 13-16 and be ahead of another champ. Pretty much if they go undefeated and Boise loses, they will be in the top 12 and the highest AQ school.

also they will be ranked higher than a BCS AQ conference champ because LOL Big East

Various situational factors are included in the lines in Vegas, but if you look at huge sample sizes, there are often letdowns in places you wouldn't expect, and teams play well in certain spots that you might think that they would letdown.

But, I can tell you right now, attributing 7 points to a situational factor, isn't even remotely within the realm of feasibility.

I dunno if they really have been that lucky knowing they are #4 in my YPP rankings. Auburn is legit.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I usually figure 3 points for a letdown/lookahead situation, but going on the road to play a team that lost to an FCS team early in the season the week after getting a 2nd straight win over a Top 12 team is about as extreme of a situational factor as you're going to find.

Auburn is way underrated by the Sagarin predictor at 17th. And it's insane to think Auburn is going to be letdown so much it's worth 7 points. It's an SEC road game and they have Chattanooga next week. Not to mention the fact that A. Ole Miss is coming off a semi-rivalry game where had to go on the road to play Houston Nutt's old team Arkansas and those teams hate each other and B. Gus Malzahn despises Houston Nutt and is going to be dead set on having his team ready. I think there's just as much of a chance of Ole Miss coming out flat as Auburn.

You are drastically overestimating how many points these situations are worth. Trust me, I have seen the data sets on this which comprise every angle and factor of every football game played in the last 15 or so years.

-7 for "huge" letdown situation is way too much. Also, I think that you are overrating the "luck" in close games factor. Auburn has not been significantly beaten from the line of scrimmage in any game this year. Of the "close" games this year, only one was close from the line of scrimmage on a YPP basis (USC was .3 better than AU). The other "close" games -- Kentucky, Clemson, LSU, and MSU -- were pretty lopsided on a YPP basis. I could easily make the case that Auburn has been unlucky to have played as many close games as it has this year.

Also, I've never researched this issue, but I assume that vertical passing teams are more high variance on a YPP basis than power running teams like Auburn. And that variance kills some percentage of drives. This is another way of suggesting that 6.6 YPP from a power running team may be better than 6.9 YPP from a vertical passing team.

+1 to Auburn being unlucky to have so many close games, but being lucky to have won them all.

Hard to argue with that sentiment. Statistical profiles of the Auburn/USC game and the Auburn/Arkansas probably would have yielded, on average, an aggregate total of 1.0 losses. The remaining games, probably something like 0.5 losses. I would estimate that Auburn's "true loss" total is just shy of 1.5 games.

Malzahn hates Houston Nutt more than any person on this planet. Ole Miss has injuries on their O-line and their defense can't stop the run. Not a good combination with Cam Newton coming to town. I expect Auburn to win this by 3 TD's.

what is this new trend of all the talking heads who keep saying "Boise State can play with those teams." or "Boise State could definitely give them a game." "One time? If they played them one time they could definitely hang with them"

Uh, Boise State (and TCU, for that matter) is BETTER than most of those teams, it's insulting the way people talk about them.

When do we get Boise vs Auburn on a Tuesday?

I dunno about a Tuesday, but they might play on a Monday.

That better be a ****ing touchback. Rig it a little more for Boise plz.

It would be nice if La Tech could at least to pretend to be a good team for a little bit.

Why the hell did Boise call that timeout with 1:00 left?