Starting the thread once again with my tier system which examines what position the top teams are in by examining their chances of making the national championship if they should win out. Everyone not on the list is considered officially eliminated as they have no chance of making the championship barring an absolute armageddon where the top teams all lose 2-3 times in the remaining 5 weeks.

Tier I: Control their own destiny
Auburn, Oregon
At this point the top two teams in the BCS standings have a pretty clear path, as none of the teams behind them have the current resume or the future schedules to beat them. At this point, Auburn and Oregon can put all thoughts of BCS machinations behind them, at least until they lose a game.

Tier II: Should be in if they win out
Missouri
This level which was once teeming with undefeated contenders from BCS conferences has now thinned out considerably, leaving just Missouri. While it doesn't seem readily apparent why they're ahead of some of the Tier III teams, their schedule should give them the boost necessary if they win out as the showdown this week with Nebraska should give them a lot of credit, likely jumping them ahead of Alabama and Utah in the polls if they win, and they'll get another boost in December if they win the Big XII championship. They might remain #3 in the polls behind Boise or Michigan State or even #4 behind both, but the gap in the polls will be extremely slim and a solid margin in the computers (currently ranked #2 with a tough remaining schedule) should give them the boost necessary into the title game at 13-0.

Tier III: Solid contenders
Boise State, TCU, Utah, Michigan State, Alabama, LSU
While I still feel reasonably certain that Missouri's comfortably ahead of the mid-major undefeateds and Alabama, I have no such confidence in Michigan State. Even with a better position in the polls and the BCS standings, I feel like MSU's weaker remaining schedule is going to make it difficult for them if they finish 12-0. A win at Iowa is going to be strong enough to get them to #4 in the polls at best and with no other wins of note remaining and no conference championship, it's going to be very difficult for the pollsters to find an excuse to jump them ahead of Boise at the end of the season. They're not even safe against TCU as while they're likely to pass them this week with a win over Iowa, the Horned Frogs have a good chance to pass them again if they win their big showdown at Utah. Basically, it's really hard to sort out any of the Top 4 teams in this group with LSU and Utah being back a little bit but still having a pretty good shot if they win their showdown with the other Tier III team left on their schedule.

Tier IV: Still alive
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Stanford, Arizona
While none of these teams have the legs on their resume to go over any undefeated teams or a one-loss SEC squad, it's still far too early to count any of them out in the race for the national title game. Even Boise who seems like the toughest to remove of the undefeateds still has two Top 30 teams left on their schedule including an extremely tough road date @ Nevada. Back in 2007, Ohio State picked up their first loss 3 weeks later than this, falling to #7 in the BCS the following week before rebounding to finish the regular season ranked #1.

Tier V: Hanging on by a thread
South Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Florida State
None of these teams are at the forefront of the national championship race right now as Florida State has an extremely damaging blowout loss to Oklahoma while Mississippi State and Arkansas are going to need a lot of help to even make the title game in their own conference, but the SEC still carries enough swagger off their 4 straight BCS championships that a 2-loss team from that conference would definitely make it in over a 2-loss team from any other conference or a 1-loss Boise State if those were the options presented for the final berth in the title game.

Eliminated last week
Kansas State, Iowa, Northwestern, West Virginia
Kansas State's road loss to Baylor ended any realistic hopes of a conference crown, let alone a national one while Iowa lost a loser-out game with Wisconsin by one point at home. Northwestern put up an extremely valiant fight against Michigan State before bowing out and West Virginia got shocked at home by Syracuse ending the chances of the Big East fielding a champion that's met with something other than nationwide ridicule.

And then there were 20. With the above-mentioned losses, 20 of the 120 teams that started the season are still at least technically alive in the national title race, and 16 of those teams still have a legitimate shot. The only "playoff" game this week in which either team could be eliminated from the national title race this week depending on which tier turns out to be necessary to make the title game is:

Missouri (Tier II) at Nebraska (Tier III)

Other important games in which one of the national title contenders is favored by 7 or less:

Oregon (Tier I) at USC
Auburn (Tier I) at Mississippi
Michigan State (Tier III) at Iowa
Utah (Tier III) at Air Force
Oklahoma State (Tier IV) at Kansas State
Kentucky at Mississippi State (Tier V)
Florida State (Tier V) at NC State

Gameday

Time for Michigan to stomp PSU and Oregon to take care of biznass against USC to help me win $$$

Tuesday, October 26

8:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech at No. 3 Boise State

Thursday, October 28

7:30 PM ET No. 16 Florida State at North Carolina State

Friday, October 29

8:00 PM ET West Virginia at Connecticut

Saturday, October 30

12:00 PM ET No. 17 Oklahoma State at Kansas State
12:00 PM ET No. 22 Miami (FL) at Virginia
12:00 PM ET Northwestern at Indiana
12:00 PM ET Clemson at Boston College
12:00 PM ET Louisville at Pittsburgh
12:00 PM ET Virginia Military Institute at Army
12:00 PM ET Purdue at Illinois
12:00 PM ET Syracuse at Cincinnati
12:00 PM ET UAB at Southern Miss
12:00 PM ET Northern Illinois at Western Michigan
12:21 PM ET Tennessee at No. 20 South Carolina
1:00 PM ET Akron at Temple
2:00 PM ET Kansas at Iowa State
2:00 PM ET Louisiana-Lafayette at Ohio
2:00 PM ET San Diego State at Wyoming
2:30 PM ET Tulsa at Notre Dame
3:00 PM ET North Texas at Western Kentucky
3:00 PM ET UTEP at Marshall
3:30 PM ET No. 5 Michigan State at No. 18 Iowa
3:30 PM ET No. 6 Missouri at No. 14 Nebraska
3:30 PM ET No. 15 Arizona at UCLA
3:30 PM ET Florida vs. Georgia*
3:30 PM ET Wake Forest at Maryland
3:30 PM ET William & Mary at North Carolina
3:30 PM ET California at Oregon State
3:30 PM ET Texas Tech at Texas A&M
3:30 PM ET Miami (OH) at Buffalo
3:30 PM ET East Carolina at UCF
3:30 PM ET Bowling Green at Central Michigan
3:30 PM ET Ball State at Kent State
3:30 PM ET Duke at Navy
3:30 PM ET Troy at Louisiana-Monroe
3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist at Tulane
4:00 PM ET San Jose State at New Mexico State
4:00 PM ET Toledo at Eastern Michigan
4:00 PM ET Florida International at Florida Atlantic
6:00 PM ET No. 1 Auburn at Mississippi
6:00 PM ET New Mexico at Colorado State
7:00 PM ET No. 13 Stanford at Washington
7:00 PM ET Vanderbilt at No. 19 Arkansas
7:00 PM ET Kentucky at No. 21 Mississippi State
7:00 PM ET No. 25 Baylor at Texas
7:00 PM ET Washington State at Arizona State
7:00 PM ET Houston at Memphis
7:30 PM ET No. 8 Utah at Air Force
8:00 PM ET No. 2 Oregon at USC
8:00 PM ET No. 11 Ohio State at Minnesota
8:00 PM ET Michigan at Penn State
9:15 PM ET Colorado at No. 9 Oklahoma
10:30 PM ET Utah State at No. 24 Nevada
11:00 PM ET No. 4 TCU at UNLV
11:30 PM ET Idaho at Hawaii

I see maybe 4 games that look remotely interesting

Mizzou at Neb should be good

Sparty @ Iowa too

I think both home teams are gonna win tho

How can it be a boring week? In the Top 6 of the BCS standings, we've got a 7 point favorite, a 6.5 point favorite, a 6.5 point dog, and a 7 point dog. And to be honest, I was completely SHOCKED to see Oregon be favored by more than a field goal this week. USC coming off a bye is about as dangerous of a road game as you'll ever see. Auburn's pretty overrated as a 7 point favorite at Mississippi in a letdown situation too. Those are two of the juicier lines I've seen in quite a while.

I was expecting Oregon -6, and felt that anything from 4.5 to 7 was probably in the no-bet category unless you can bet it with no juice. Oregon -4 I would want a piece of, and while of course I wouldn't bet it for personal reasons, USC +7.5 would definitely be juicy.

I am really really scared about this game, as an Oregon fan. The good news is that their defense is even worse than ours, and has shown at least some specific vulnerability to schemes similar to what we run. The bad news is their offense might be even better than ours too, and we have shown some specific vulnerability to schemes similar to what they run as well. Throw in revenge factor for last year, home field advantage, and being off a bye (plus if you actually care about such things, the #1 team at the gameday site curse) and it's hard not to be nervous.

Oregon is gonna rape USC

edit: ill bet on the no juice line if someone wants to bet 100-300$

The real reason why BBJ is scared:

http://www.smartfootballrankings.com...29&season=2010

42-38 USC. Adjusted for my HFA bug, 41-40 USC.

I figured the Oregon/USC line would be between 5 and 7 points in favor of Oregon.

USC resume - Got scored on a heap by Hawaii and lost to UW
Oregon resume - Pantsed every opponent repeatedly

Still, it's USC at home and I'm sure they're not pleased about last year.

FWIW I don't think the bye week is actually much of an advantage at all... Oregon played Thursday so they've had extra time to rest, practice and prepare as well.

Dude, Oregon is #2 in the BCS.

And Alabama wasn't even ranked in the BCS at all!

boise/tcu 1/2 next week

I prefer sched in the OP instead of Iggy's thing in the future. It's fine as a 2nd post but I frequently glance back the OP when I am looking in the thread to see when games are, who is playing where, etc.

Just my $0.02

Oh yeah, and I can't really comment on any of the games that happened on Sat since I blacked out by 11am and have no idea what happened for the next 5 or 6 hours or so then woke up in Berkeley at 9pm and it was pitch black and raining outside then tried to rally for the massive SF giants parties in the city but was like completely incapacitated and had to go home and sleep it off.

My tolerance is ridic, I feel like I am at ~30% of where I was in college. That, combined with these early ass gamedays where you are drinking from like butt ****ing 8 in the morning and then trying to carry it into the evening is just impossible. Can we get a 5pm or 7pm game ONE TIME plz? Nobody is watching us on TV anyway jfc

Agree, I like your OP's better tbh...

The OP is a fine post but it should go in the weekly ranking thread imo.

MSU needs Auburn, Oregon, and probably Missouri to lose to go to the NC game, if they can win out. Hooray for the terrible BCS system!

2 of those 3 is probably sufficient.

Thread is a little heavy on USC pictures at the moment.









That's better.

So my friend's brother tutors lamichael james and he says that he hates football, only plays so that he can stay on scholarship, and that the entire team hates chip kelly and thinks he's a dick and that lmj got into it with chip the other day for being fake in front of the espn cameras and got kicked out of practice.

I basically responded "yeah, I think that's how a lot of college football programs work, you just don't hear about it" and he kept going on about how THIS WAS DIFFERENT and THEY ACTUALLY HATE HIM, and I was like "well whatever he's doing it's working" then they pozzed on ucla the next day.

So, take that for what you will.

ok?

wat

coolstorybro.jpg

Encore performance:

'cause I really hate USC.

b