First plays...

Lombard/Palhares ITD -230
Lombard/Palhares draw +8000 tiny play obv. Hey Palhares is prone to odd fouls and "moments" in the cage so meh.

Mike Pierce opens -200, already slammed to -250 sigh.

So thats basically Palhares or Lombard wins 29-28 and is deducted a point at +8k? Hmm... interesting. Wonder what the odds on Lombard by DQ will end up at in case Palhares randomly decides to climb out of the cage?

Also, how the hell are ZERO lines out for the TUF 16 Nelson/Mitrione card out one day before? Not even the main event.

Might get on Fletcher if he's -120ish when the pinnacle lines drop, will probably take GSot last minute since the odds have got steadily better, and still want to get on GSot/Pearson doesn't go the distance at + if it ends up being available anywhere I have funds

Think most of the value will be on the Nelson/Mitrione card though. Apparently Mitrione refused vada testing or whatever, so lol roids probably, but it won't help him against Nelson he just isn't skilled enough imo.

Is this TUF finale card the best one in years on paper? Lack of huge names aside, there isn't a single fight on the main card that i'd say would be out of place on the main card of a PPV and they all feature exciting fighters and the undercard has some fights that should be fun too (although starring non name guys obv). Pretty ridiculous how weak the smashes card is by comparison, i'm more psyched for all 5 TUF 16 main card fights than any of the fights on the entire australia card (except maybe GSot/Pearson since it has an aussie in it)

On a slightly unrelated note I just saw Guida is fighting Hioki on an upcoming card, Guida -200 or better one time please?

Didn't know you could refuse the testing?

I don't get why they would allow this?

It's not the commission testing it's the special extra testing that some fighters do to prove they're clean or if they think their opponent is dirty they suggest it etc eg BJ Rory fight agreed to it and both passed - Nelson suggested it, Mitrione refused apparently obviously that in itself doesn't prove guilt but it makes it more likely - a lot of fighters who juice manage to cycle off and pass UFC testing (eg. reem in every fight he's passed the test since it's abundantly clear he takes steroids and has done so for a long time and only got caught for it after his last fight), apparently the VADA testing is more thorough

Hmmm interesting, thanks

Poirier -178 vs Brookins is the best bet as a few lines just dropped. May take guillard if odds improve slightly, staying away from SDR/Barry, Nelson is still a bet over Mitrione imo narrowly and Ricci/Smith line is probably fair

Poirier is a -300 type fav over brookins imo, Brookins has ONE way to win which is push Poirier against the cage to wall and stall, Poirier is better at everything else

If Roy drops below -200 ill make a decent play but at -210 its a small play imo

Top play IMO is Del Rosario. Striking should be close but Barry's chin is meh and if it ever goes to the ground it's over quickly.

Next best is prolly Poirier. Love both these lines.

Poirier is way better than SDR line imo. I just don't see Brookins winning. Barry has a chance in a primarily striker vs striker battle.

Sigh, Poirier -230 on Pinn and -200 elsewhere now. Nelson -205. Guillard +110 is tempting even though Varner 'should' win with gameplanning, I don't know whether he will and Guillard is a more talented guy overall (granted with even lower fight IQ than Varner)

So far I added a unit on G-Sot at -116 and thats all but i'll definitely be making a lot more plays - huge chunk of what I have on Pinn atm since im not keeping much online is tied up in 3 SC2 bets I have tonight for a combo of 12 units, first one just won so hopefully at least one of the others does so I can cover all of the bets i'll want to make once the undercard lines drop and a bunch of the lines stabilise etc.

Would love some ChrisV database analysis when it's time

Shame I missed the ****** -178 line on poirier due to waiting for pinn line to drop. I still think he's +EV at -230 but ill wait for now since better prices on the other books, see if they level out and I can get Poirier at -200ish, otherwise I won't bother and will just use him in some parlays.

Also, Mendes opening at -1100 and being bet to -1400 is lol, but is also +EV still probably since he's fighting a can coming off a loss to another can in a bush league promotion

Just saw UFC 40 - Shamrock v Ortiz. Blast from the past. Man, Shamrock had some heart. Not so good at MMA though.

This is a ****ing joke, I've never seen 5d take this long to drop the lines. The fights are in like 36 hours FFS. Everyone I wanted to bet is getting smashed by the public and the prices are in the rafters now.

Guess I may not end up with as many bets as I thought, lets wait on the undercard I guess.

I may bet against the steam on Barry if he gets to +170 or something

Will get on Poirier or Nelson decently if either get below -200 but not that much value anymore really

Just noticed one book has JDS -160 to win inside distance vs Cain and the same book has him -157 to win the fight. Sportbet fails.

Also, added a unit on Fletcher at -110

1u on G-Sot -116 and 1u Fletcher at -110 so far

Edit: Added 1u on Poirier and 1u on Nelson too. Will add more if the odds improve. Half unit on Barry and half unit on Guillard as well, although both are 'feel' bets rather than logical analysis bets kinda.

This late line releasing is indeed ****ing annoying.

What's annoying is I missed the Poirier opening line at -178 and got in slightly late

Also where the hell is a GSot/Pearson doesnt go the distance prop with a decent limit

Also my bet of $120-odd on Colin Fletcher moved the line from -110 to -112, showing the ridiculous lack of interest everyone has in that card. Just thought i'd mention that due to the lol factor of a $120ish bet moving a main card line TWO cents less than 2 days before a fight

looking forward to these next two fight cards this week, probably gonnna bet tha house on tj waldburger

Man this is brutal. Mike Pierce is -325 now that the lines are finally out on 5d. Probably still throw him in a parlay but man -_-

Poirier -235 and Del Rosario -175. Still think there's a bit of value on both of those but I'll probably just parlay them now.

I've got my eye squarely on one dog on the Saturday prelims: John Cofer. He's that big a dog to Mike Rio? Don't see it. James Head and Pichel look intriguing too.

Added Sot wins inside distance +261 and fight ends ITD -110

I like Sot ITD line there def

Love Cofer +160 too I had him as a small fav in my analysis

Small odds play on Head seems decent

Viana is a good bet at -110 now that hes fighting guys the same size too - if the lines are all still there when they open on Pinn i'll take them

Also looks like I jumped the gun on G-Sot since he's at evens now, I guess i'll add another couple units if he gets to +115 or whatever

Just thought I'd give you guys a heads up that I have a 3-star play, Shane Del Rosario. Barring a miracle that will be my best bet of the weekend, I haven't looked through the TUF Finale undercard yet but I have no other 2+ star plays on either UFC card other than that (though there's a couple at Bellator). I'll do a proper writeup later but thought people might want to hit this one.

I got my money on like so (though I may have shifted these lines as I hit them with max bets):

Bet365: 1.58
******: 1.56
Sportsbet.com.au: 1.54 (though they gave me a pitiful amount)
and the rest (not very much) had to go on Pinny at 1.498.

Also GSot/Pearson ITD is back up on 5D, 1.91 now :/

Hmm, gl. Logically SDR should beat Barry and there was probably value early but I can't help but feel like Barry might pull off an upset. At the opening line it was def value. I have a small half unit odds play on Barry now that the odds got better but will def avoid putting more.

@chrisV any chance you could still do say 200 for me on G-Sot/Pearson ITD? I still think there's marginal value in that price in a 5 rounder. Can fix you up on stars/mb/bankwire/pinn if it loses. If you do get a chance to book it just PM me or post in thread that I have action, otherwise i'll assume I don't.

Also, added 0.8u on GSot now that he at evens, and 0.3u on Donovan as a small dog (heard he has decent takedowns and Penner got ground and pounded by Perosh whose ground game is good but ability to get it there is weak)

Best value is in Cofer and Viana on tomorrow's card now imo although there's still probably value on Poirier and to a lesser degree Nelson

It limited me to 110 to win 100, so I put you on for that, gl.

Anyone heading to the Vegas event?

Just picked up a couple of tickets