If anyone has any historical strikeforce lines/winners scraped(all my strikeforce and UFC is clumped together, sadly) and would be willing to check 1 quick thing for me please shoot me a PM

lol that wasnt even a sweat

3-0, +2.924u (5.5u).

YTD: 12-4, +7.316u (30.5u), 24.0% ROI

Best Bets: 3-0
3-star plays: 2-0
2-star plays: 5-2
1-star plays: 5-2

Forgot to label Best Bet on post above, but as I'd indicated in an earlier post it was Saffiedine.

Tate bet was no good, was lucky to pull out the submission at the end. It was again one of those fights where Kedzie threw everything at Tate and Tate just took it on the chin and came back for the win, but it was still fortunate and at 1.22 clearly pretty awful. When you're hot you're hot I guess.

Didn't see the Saffiedine or Smith fights but from what I heard Saffiedine won pretty clearly and the Smith bet was obviously awesome. Shame I decided not to take the De Randamie bet as her opponent looked utterly hopeless. Will trust my analysis over odds movement in the future I guess.

Rousey wow, what a machine. Submission at 1.48 clearly a gift.

If anyone is starting to think of tailing me, obviously it's early days and I am running superhot. I'm hoping for 10% ROI in the long haul so will get some regression to the mean at some point. In a fair world would have lost either the Benson or Miesha bets and had like 3-4 units less profit.

nice card chris, hope your streak continues!

ChrisV, i really like your posts. Keep them going for every card.

just to be clear (ive had a few beers), the units in ()'s are actual units bet and units not in ()'s are based on 1 unit per play? FTR I havent searched any of your prev posts.

Units not in brackets are profit, units in brackets are total units wagered. Mostly I'm doing that to help myself keep track, as I have to have both those cumulative numbers to calculate the ROI every time.

My betting isn't exactly matching what I'm putting here, for instance I had $150 on Smith, $500 on Tate and $1,000 on Saffiedine but the amounts I had in the post were 0.5u, 2u and 3u. Plus there are some bets I take on tips or whatever rather than database work. So my personal ROI will differ from the one I calculate here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apnmj...eature=related

I think there will be tons of value in the next rousey fight against cyborg.If the line comes out anything below rousey-300 your stealing.I dont see how cyborg has any shot to win .The fight will be the same as kaufman.Rousey will not sit there and trade punches and go straight for the takedown and it will be over .

Gina carano actually had cyborg in the mount twice early in the first round.Cyborg is over rated and a joke.Gina is tough but she is not a world class olympian .If gina had any bjj training she would have beaten cyborg herself when she had her in full mount and just stood up.Im really hoping to see a -150 line so I can bet the house on rousey!!

Good posts, like your analysis and your results so far have been good.

I skipped this card since other than Adlan Amagov or w/e his name is and Rousey being locks there didnt look like much value to me and both were basically unbackable favourites and I try to stay away from the huge favourites for the most part.

Rousey/Cyborg would be interesting, if Cyborg is juice free and at 135 i'd favour Rousey, if it's at 145 and she manages to cycle back onto the roids then i'd probably take Cyborg.

Cyborg wouldn't be at 135 though surely. Don't underestimate the power of testosterone. Cyborg is basically a guy with the brain of a woman.

By the way, I read the night before the fights (I think, maybe the commentators said it?) that Yamanaka's day job is a dominatrix and MMA is a sideline for her. That should probably have been a hint to bet the house against her.

For anyone who didn't see that fight, her standup was atrocious, she was bouncing back and forth on her feet burning energy but without any actual technique or purpose. De Randamie was just darting in and out with nice footwork and landing big hits on her and copping nothing in return. Then shed rush De Randamie and get in a clinch against the cage and didn't have anything like the strength required to take her down, so they would just chillax against the cage for a while until the ref separated them. Repeat. I would take any remotely competent fighter against Yamanaka, unfortunately I doubt she will fight in a major competition again.

Yeah, Rousey would break both my arms no doubt this time around. What a savage. Watched the Tate Kedzie fight, felt really bad for Kedzie, she was owning Tate. Too bad she didn't gameplan good enough. IDK if the woman defend really bad vs submission attempts or what, everytime they go to the ground, they end up in mount, arm triangles or some sort of choke hold. Though I have to say, it's a lot more entertaining than men grinding the guard positions 4ever.
Hard for others to compete with her when she's been training armbars, judo and grappling since 6 years old while the other female fighters don't have nearly the same time put into grappling as her combined.

I'm with Schweden, I think Cyborg would have a great shot against Rousey, whose striking is not particularly good (defense especially).

@Swoop, clearly Rousey wasn't unbackable since she clearly should have been worse than -600 or whatever she closed at lol. But as Chris said I feel quite good about getting Rousey ITD at such a reasonable price as -300.

I think the favorites are way more backable in womans mma than men mma bc u can take away that punchers chance in a lot of matches cause quite frankly, we rarely see a KO in the womans divison.

I did take Cyborg TKO R1 vs the last japanese girl she blitzed simply because we were all 100% sure it would happen just a matter of when

I think it's more that there may be bigger locks/mismatches than in mens MMA since in mens MMA there's more of a punchers chance as swift said

interesting point, this could just be recency bias though

Erick Silva/Fitch just opened at evens.

I have no idea what I think. Fitch is a good proven LnPer and Silva did get taken down by Brenneman, but he also hurt him and finished him and Fitch can be finished as we saw in the Hendricks fight.

This is going to be a totally one sided fight (Fitch via 30-27 or Silva by TKO) but I haven't decided which I like more yet.

I hope Silva wins and gets a title shot after Condit and the Kampmann/Hendricks winner, he's one of my fav WWs and the most interesting prospect at WW imo in that he could fade into nothing or become a superstar.

I still like BJ at +252 vs Rory Mac (think he wins 40% or so)

Nelson opens +155 vs Carwin -200

Shogun is +185 at Betonline vs Gustaffson, but it's Betonline, so lol

I rly like nelson at plus 155

Carwin looks good to me at -200. He has tighter boxing than Nelson but if one of them gases really early, who knows.

Thinking Fitch over Silva, hoping for Silva though obv.

Some more main card lines out.

One that jumps out to me right now is Dennis Hallman +175 against Tavares. He's a big, talented grappler and there's a decent chance he can get a gassing Tavares on his back and win the fight.

Honestly I think Carwin is going to annihilate him. Nelson's only path to victory is to get used as a punching bag then sub Carwin when he gasses in r2/3

I honestly think Carwin is going to put Nelson to sleep in this fight despite Nelson's chin. Nelson always loses to top level competition and despite Carwin's 2 loss streak, it was to Lesnar (in a fight he was winning but punched himself out) and JDS and he mowed down everyone else (the Gonzaga fight was competitive but he still finished Gonzaga)

I'll wait and see where the line moves but if Carwin ends up at -170 or something i'll go hard.

Will also be keen to see the Carwin by TKO line, Nelson has a chin but not the best striking defense and Carwin hits very, very hard. If I can get Carwin by TKO at +150 or something i'll take it.

Siver will use Yagin as a punching bag enroute to a TKO or 30-27, but not too much value.

@Just_mo Hallman is out to +185 now fwiw i'm not sure on that betting against Tavares has burned me twice, granted once was a robbery.

hard to judge how Carwin will perform after such a long layoff, surgeries and his advanced age. i used to think Nelson would end up in a bodybag in that fight, but that was like 2 years ago.

Now i just dont know.

Carwin ain't all that if you ask me. He has only 2 decent over Gonzaga, who has a suspect chin and Frank Mir, who also has a suspect chin and who's worst type of fighters are wrestlers who are stronger and can control him.
Now there are a lot of factors weighin into that match that I'd definately wait for more info.

All depends on Carwin's injuries but if he is looking like he did prior to the surgeries then he's a great bet up to -200.