I'm not a fan of Glover at all - I don't think he'd have a hope in hell against any of the top guys in the division (Cormier, Johnson, Gus, etc).

That said... I just don't see how OSP beats him. He doesn't have the wrestling chops to take Glover down and beat him like Phil Davis did, and he's clearly not Jon Jones either. I don't think he's active enough on the feet to take a decision there much of the time. His takedown defense isn't great, and his striking defense isn't great either.

Am I missing something? Why isn't Glover a much bigger favourite here?

I agree. Glover is getting older and isn't going to touch the top tier fighters. However, Glover is a very skilled boxer. OSP's style of loading up on punches should be easily avoided by Glover IMO.

OSP doesn't throw combos so I also don't seem him getting a decision. OSP must KO him or Glover wins a decision.

Just my 2c.

EDIT: I think the best bet for this fight is o1.5 rounds at something like -165 on 5d

Yeah I'm very high on Dariush and have been since his first UFC fight. Think Dariush just got caught against Nijem. His grappling is world class and his in range striking has proven to be pretty dangerous.

Anik just tweeted:

Haven't gotten word yet. Assuming it'll be big b/c of the size of the arena we're in.

https://twitter.com/Jon_Anik/status/628984693082468352

Gastelum will fight Matt Brown at welterweight at the next TUF Latin America finale.

Diego Sanchez is moving down to 145 and will fight Ricardo Lamas.

Also Myles Jury is moving down to 145.

Can't wait to see how anorexic Diego will look at 145lbs!

It's funny that Sanchez and Florian fought each other at middleweight and both eventually moved down three weight classes.

I would like to back Glover but he gets tagged in a lot of fights and Davis made him look old, also we haven't seen him fight under the more stringent drug testing yet so that might be a factor.

Might wait till weigh ins and see how Glover looks.

Oh dear a train wreck. Dana must still be pissed he didn't make weight.

An absolute beating will be in the works. This is a horrendous match up for Gastellum and he will not survive the 3 rounds. If you don't have awesome wrestling or awesome footwork/standup Brown will destroy anyone. Gastellum has neither and will be just wrecked. If it's 5 rounds he has even less chance but there's no way he can take the beating for more then 3 rds imo.

u confusing Gastelum w some1 else?

he has outstanding wrestling and his footwork/standup is pretty good too

i think it will be a very competitive fight

Hendriks and perhaps Woodley are the only outstanding ones imo.

Never mind Gastelum will probably outweigh Brown by about 30 lbs.

@Sect7G what kind of odds would i get for a fighter who's gonna get wrecked?

interested in a wager?
(anything up to $300 on Gastelum side is fine w me)

Alex Chambers is +1132 against PVZ... I mean, yeah Alex got wrecked and was super lucky to win her last fight and this is supposed to be a gimme fight for their pin up girl PVZ but... +1132? Chambers has heart and will hang in there for a while even if she's losing. That's a Correia vs Rousey level line. At least Chambers has decent BJJ and could get an armbar or triangle from the bottom or something. Sure, PVZ is a HUGE fav and i'd play her to -400ish but i'm kinda tempted to throw something small on Chambers here, especially if Chambers ITD or Sub is +2000 or better (which the line suggests it might be) given Chambers shouldn't win a decision here so if she wins it'll usually be a sub

Brown vs Gastelum should be fun, I like both guys but I think i'll be cheering for Brown, Sect7G has converted me. I'm guessing Gastelum opens as a small to moderate fav, maybe -160 to Brown +130 or thereabouts although I wouldn't be shocked to see it open at evens or with Gastelum at -200

Anyone else think Gustafsson is great value? +300 and climbing, so glad 5d cancelled my bet at +220, guess i'll wait until the steam ends before firing him. I was on Cormier against Rumble, but I think Gustafsson matches up a lot better, he has a lot more heart, less power but better precision striking, he's taller I think with a bigger reach advantage and has shown good TDD in the Jones fight and I assume will be drilling TDD all camp the way he did for Jones since he should get the best of Cormier on the feet most of the time in a standup affair

I actually have this as close to a pick'em fight if Gustafsson turns up at his best. We have to lean Cormier slightly, but i'd play Gustafsson at +200 let alone the +300 he's currently at. Wait and see how high it goes I guess

I'm a big cormier homer but that's a ridiculous line. Agree completely with everything you said.

Yeah Gustaffson looks great value just a case of him coming back from a knockout and mma math that has his line so far out but he matches up better then AJ.

I cant see Darius stopping MJ, MJ will be the more dangerous and powerful striker on the feet, and it will be very hard for Darius to take MJ down. Im thinking TKO or Decision win for MJ.


Not sure why Glover should be a big favorite against almost anyone with the athletic power and speed of OSP. Glover is quite old and slowing down early. He hasn't looked that impressive at all to me, this is a 5 round fight, I see OSP grinding down Glover to win a decision or even stopping him.

I made an early bet on OSP, but have to agree that over 1.5 rounds here is IMO the best bet to make.

I think +300 on Gus is thin value.

I like the Gus by decision line of +700. When Gus does win he almost always will do so by dec.

I favour DC at about 60/40

EDIT: I am on Glover and Dariush so we will see...
Dariush by sub is +3--

Do u mean that Gastellum doesn't get finished or do u mean Gastellum winning the fight?

Gastelum winning

over 1.5 in Max Holloway v Charles Oliveira should be a good play?

It is a bit expensive at -200 but I still like it.
Especially safe as this is a 5 rounder.

I put 3 units on it, good call.

I think the true line is a lot better on Brown than what the odds will indicate as Kelvin has a Mexican background and the fight is in Mexico so I think casual money will keep the line close.

Realistically I think Brown's a -260 but I think it will open at Brown -150