Entertaining card. I doubled down on the wrong underdogs.

Invicta FC 16 Results

Amber Brown (+130) vs Ayaka Hamasaki $100.00 for $130.00= -$100.00
Amber Brown (+140) vs Ayaka Hamasaki $100.00 for $140.00= -$100.00
Jennifer Maia (+150) vs Vanessa Porto $50.00 for $75.00= $75.00
Stephanie Eggink (-115) vs Angela Hill $115.00 for $100.00= -$115.00
Stephanie Eggink (+105) vs Angela Hill $100.00 for $105.00= -$100.00
Jessamyn Duke (+190) vs Irene Aldana $50.00 for $95.00= -$50.00
DeAnna Bennett (-175) vs Roxanne Modafferi $87.50 for $50.00= -$87.50
Jinh Yu Frey (+140) vs Herica Tiburcio $50.00 for $70.00= $70.00

Parlay:
Andrea Lee (-245) vs Sarah D'Alelio + Irene Aldana (-230) vs Jessamyn Duke $75.00 for $76.53= -$75.00
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Total Loss= -$482.50

Anyone got any picks for tonights WSOF card? I usually don't bet/follow WSOF but feel like taking a few small punts and a few large beers.

Gaethje is so reckless with brawling and Foster dangerous enough that I have to bet Foster at these odds. Mike Hayes in the co-main against Josh Copeland has only been stopped once in 33 amateur & pro fights so I bet him with the points in what could be a sloppy heavyweight fight. And I like my chances on the round robin parlay for three fights to go over 1½ and one under.

WSOF 29 Risk $290.00

Brian Foster (+270) vs Justin Gaethje $50.00 for $135.00
Brian Foster (+285) vs Justin Gaethje $50.00 for $142.50
Mike Hayes +3½ points (+150) vs Josh Copeland $40.00 for $60.00

Parlay:
Round Robin six parlays by twos of Cavan/Hocum Over 1½ + Taylor/Devela Under 1½ + Copeland/Hayes Over 1½ + Gaethje/Foster Over 1½ $150.00 for $370.64

glgl

I wonder why Magny is steaming so hard; maybe Lombard looks soft post USADA or has an undisclosed injury? We'll see I guess steam to -140 I understand but if it gets to -200 it has to be something major even if he's coming off PEDs Lombard still doesn't have any losses other than close SDs at MW in years and while Magny is improving every fight and is certainly a top 10-15 guy he isn't top 5.

Shame Trijillo cant get a visa was looking forward to him losing.

Losing Nguyen/Scoggins sucks too makes the card a lot weaker. Hope they can find a replacement for Nguyen on short notice.

Added: Louis Taylor/Cory Devela won’t go 3 round distance (-180) $90.00 for $50.00

Shame Scoggins won't be able to fight, really stoked to see Laprise step in to fight Ross.

My parlay saved me. Small profit better than losing at least.

WSOF 29 Results

Brian Foster (+270) vs Justin Gaethje $50.00 for $135.00= -$50.00
Brian Foster (+285) vs Justin Gaethje $50.00 for $142.50= -$50.00
Mike Hayes +3½ points (+150) vs Josh Copeland $40.00 for $60.00= -$40.00
Louis Taylor/Cory Devela won’t go 3 round distance (-180) $90.00 for $50.00= $50.00

Parlay:
Round Robin six parlays by twos of Cavan/Hocum Over 1½ + Taylor/Devela Under 1½ + Copeland/Hayes Over 1½ + Gaethje/Foster Over 1½ $150.00 for $370.64= $119.69
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Total Profit= $29.69

Added a 0.1u parlay

Lombard+Matthews+Andrade+Hooker+Jouban +1293

Goes with my Lombard KO prop; Lombard decision no bet prop and Matthews bet

I can't believe Lombard KO is +410 now, I loved it at +345 and if steam doesn't continue on Magny i'll add more on fight day if he looks not terrible at weigh ins (obviously he'll look worse off roids, but depends how much worse, remember he ragdolled Jake Shields who himself has failed drug tests in a fight I was convinced Shields matched up well in)

So far in the other fights i'm torn on the main event (would snap Hunt or Hunt TKO at evens or Mir at +200 or Mir SUB at +300 which is close atm at +280)

Leaning Andrade over Walsh even in Australia. Walsh has improved but he's still Grujic-Indich level non prospect in my mind rather than a Whittaker-Matthews level actual Australian prospect.

Might add more on Matthews he's a super powerful guy and was beating up James Vick before he got caught and has looked better in every fight. I read in an interview he plans to grapple with Case and 'fight him where he's weak rather than get caught in the standup' which is obviously an optimal gameplan. I think Matthews can bullrush Case and most mid level guys to the ground and while he's still very young he's improving in every fight and has the home crowd in the event it goes to a close decision eg. wins one round via topcontrol, loses one round on feet, and one close round where he loses standup but gets a takedown or two he probably gets the win

Just talked myself into a to win 0.5u Dan Hooker bet at -193 which I added as well. Was confusing Eddiva with Royston Wee for a sec there, and while i'd still like Hooker in that slightly less so. I just don't think Eddiva is very good, and while Hooker is lower-mid tier for the division despite his Hioki win, I don't think Eddiva is capable of beating a UFC caliber fighter and I think Hooker narrowly makes that cut as a guy who can go 0.50 fighting the lower-mid of the division

Tempted by Nakai as a dog but i'll wait until weigh ins to see the size disadvantage because she's so small. Andrade is tempting too but won't fire without watching more tape on both guys. I'd def take him at evens on neutral soil but Walsh is Australian so might pass.

Rawlings is my least favourite female MMA fighter so def not betting on her but even though she sucks and has no TDD she might match up ok vs Ham; i'll be cheering for the Korean though so not going to bet it. She reminds me of the absolute worst women I have met in Australia from her personality on TUF and in general.

Do they fight today?

**** me they booked porier vs green i said i would bet green all the way tii he won the belt but the layoff and being booked against the kind of guy that easily murders the unmotivated bobby green we sometimes get scares me

The card is on the 19th US time/20th Australian time

Hmm, Damien Brown added to Brisbane card fighting Alan Patrick. Patrick still has that Makdessi win and Brown appears to be a journeyman but I did watch two of Brown's opponents fight on a local Australian card (Games and Turkyilmaz) and I remember thinking Games was very impressive for a 0-0 fighter (he was 3-0 when Brown gave him his first loss). Turkyilmaz is a typical solid Muay Thai guy who won the main event of that card vs a Canadian journeyman via r1 ko (Kevin Manderson) but who seems to have no ground game from his record

I don't know enough about Brown but his camp is very close to where I live and seems to specialise in BJJ and most of his wins are by submission so i'm guessing he's primarily a BJJ guy.

Probably won't make a play on the fight but interesting addition to the card.

Tempted to play Pearson at +105 vs Laprise but will wait until weigh ins I think.

Added another half unit each on Matthews -106 and Pearson +102

0.5u Mir/Hunt u1.5 rounds -108

Could go a lot of ways but I think it ends in r1 close to half the time so adding in the first few mins of r2 i'll take it at close to evens, slightly prefer it over a Mir or Hunt play at the moment

Is anyone on Mir? He's looked so sloppy slow and out of shape lately and Hunto looks like he's actually training hard and motivated. I have a hard time seeing him get a takedown and expect Hunt to counter him or hit him with one leaping hook and Mir covers up and gets beaten to death..

Probably a good bet. It is hard to anticipate how a HW fight will unfold. I have a few units on Hunt but can see Mir getting a KO or maybe even a sub if he finds a way to get it to the mat.

I like Magny SU simply because I think he can stick and move for 3 rounds and win a decision.

My brain tells me that your analysis is correct but I've been so wrong about the course of recent HW fights that it's time to sprinkle some wagers on round 4/5 finishes and some decision props. Hunt in the 5th at +2600? Sure! Frank by split decision at +2900? Alrighty then!

I should have started doing this five fights ago. The only way to bet Mir is to make as much gambool as possible.

If you want the late props i'd personally take Hunt UD +1300; if it goes the distance it seems super unlikely that the bulk of the fight takes place on the ground so Hunt UD seems likely. If I end up making a bigger u1.5 rounds play I may hedge with Hunt UD. That said, if it goes 5 rounds standing Mir will need Hunt to gas to not get knocked out probably. No way on earth that Mir SD is anywhere near half as likely as Hunt UD imo

Hunt's ground game has improved and he did survive a while with Struve on the ground but Mir is probably #2 to Werdum on the ground at HW there is no way Hunt has improved enough to not get submitted across multiple rounds on the ground if Mir can take him down

Frank Mir looked skinny in his recent training photos, at least with his shirt on. I wonder if he's doing the opposite of what he did last time when he came in noticeably heavy and got a KO?

He's gotta figure trying to strike with / KO Hunt would be a terrible plan, right?

Every Mir fight for the last 7 fights has seen him so shy to pull any trigger standing and not even try for takedowns save vs Nelson..

I don't like Hunt to win in 5th. I think if the longer it goes the better it is for Mir, because it means Hunt hasn't landed a bomb yet, and one is all it will take before Mir goes into his shell to get finished. I don't think Mir has the defense, movement, or chin avoid/take a Hunt hook/uppercut.

I think your U1.5 at -108 is a pretty solid bet.

I think if Frank manages to make it through 2 rounds, somehow, the Split decision at +2900 is a pretty decent looking wager as well.

Mir's striking is better than it was, but not good enough to hang with Hunt, likewise Hunt's grappling is better than it was, but not good enough to hang with Mir

I feel like someone gets finished in a dominant fashion just don't know who. I lean Hunt wins as do the odds, but who knows really

Mir has terrible takedowns, shouldn't be able to pressure Hunt into the fence, and shouldn't be able to control distance well enough to get a good shot in IMO. I don't think Mir has landed a takedown in literally 5 years.

This is kinda what I think. I just don't see Mir being able to safely close the distance without Hunt putting the hurt on him. It is not easy to clinch with someone or get a TD when someone has power like Hunt.