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03-06-2016 , 09:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimGunn
The most frustrating thing about this event is that I was killing the undercard and up over $1200 before the co-main event and looking at a huge night. I bet Miesha post round 2 at decent odds just after she almost choked Holly out the first time and then bet Holly even bigger after round 3 when Holly looked like she was going to cruise to a decision win. I totally bought into the McGregor hype and only the under 2½ prop and the no glove touch and significant strikes props saved me some money there in the main event. So ended up with a moderate loss after all, which isn't so bad on its own. But I still have this huge future bet from months ago on Conor McGregor against Frankie Edgar for 8.75u to win 5u and I have no idea if the bet will stand or if I'm now locked into a sucker bet on a fighter with no ground game!


UFC 196 Results

Conor McGregor (-320) vs Nate Diaz $640.00 for $200.00= -$640.00
Conor McGregor -5½ points (-289.00) $289.00 for $100.00= -$289.00
Conor McGregor/Nate Diaz Under 2½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Conor McGregor/Nate Diaz Under 2½ (-192) $192.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Conor McGregor wins by submission (+2400) $20.00 for $480.00= -$20.00
Conor McGregor wins by 5 round decision (+905) $50.00 for $452.50= -$50.00
Conor McGregor/Nate Diaz No glove touch before fight starts (-280) $140.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Conor McGregor/Nate Diaz significant strikes over 85½ (+170) $100.00 for $170.00= $170.00

Holly Holm (-245) vs Miesha Tate $245.00 for $100.00= -$245.00
Holly Holm (-330) vs Miesha Tate $330.00 for $100.00= -$330.00
Holly Holm/Miesha Tate Over 2½ (-207) $207.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Holly Holm/Miesha Tate starts round 3 (-249) $249.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Holly Holm/Miesha Tate starts round 4 (-155) $77.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Holly Holm wins in round 4 (+1375) $15.00 for $206.25= -$15.00
Holly Holm wins in round 5 (+1975) $15.00 for $296.25= -$15.00
Holly Holm wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+215) $125.00 for $268.75= -$125.00
Miesha Tate wins by 5 round decision (+670) $50.00 for $335.00= -$50.00
Miesha Tate Live In-Play (-116) $200.00 for $172.41= $172.41
Holy Holm Live In-Play (-450) $450.00 for $100.00= -$450.00

Ilir Latifi (-180) vs Gian Villante $360.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Ilir Latifi wins in round 1 (+225) $25.00 for $56.25= -$25.00
Ilir Latifi wins by TKO/KO (+120) $50.00 for $60.00= -$50.00
Ilir Latifi/Gian Villante Under 1½ (+130) $75.00 for $97.50= -$75.00

Corey Anderson -3½ points (+130) vs Tom Lawlor $50.00 for $65.00= $65.00
Corey Anderson wins by submission (+1245) $20.00 for $249.00= -$20.00
Corey Anderson wins by 3 round decision (-135) $54.00 for $40.00= $40.00

Amanda Nunes (-130) vs Valentina Shevchenko $130.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Amanda Nunes (-145) vs Valentina Shevchenko $290.00 for $200.0= $200.00
Amanda Nunes scorecards = no action (-153) $153.00 for $100.00= Cancelled
Amanda Nunes wins in round 1 (+350) $35.00 for $122.50= -$35.00
Amanda Nunes wins by 3 round decision (+291) $40.00 for $116.40= $116.40
Valentina Shevchenko +3½ points (-165) vs Amanda Nunes $165.00 for $100.00= -$165.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+1325) $10.00 for $132.50= -$10.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by 3 round decision (+305) $35.00 for $106.75= -$35.00

Siyar Bahadurzada (+260) vs Brandon Thatch $75.00 for $195.00= $195.00
Siyar Bahadurzada wins by TKO/KO (+470) $25.00 for $117.50= -$25.00
Erick Silva/Nordine Taleb Over 1½ (-145) $72.50 for $50.00= -$72.50
Erick Silva/Nordine Taleb Over 1½ (-150) $75.00 for $50.00= -$75.00
Nordine Taleb Live In-Play (+240) vs Erick Silva $45.00 for $108.00= $108.00
Erick Silva/Nordine Taleb goes 3 round distance (+145) $50.00 for $72.50= -$50.00
Erick Silva wins by 3 round decision (+360) $75.00 for $270.00= -$75.00
Vitor Miranda/Marcelo Guimaraes Under 2½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00= $105.00
Vitor Miranda wins in round 1 (+275) $25.00 for $68.75= -$25.00
Vitor Miranda wins inside distance (+120) $40.00 for $48.00= $48.00
Vitor Miranda wins inside distance (-105) $52.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Darren Elkins +3½ points (-175) vs Chas Skelly $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Diego Sanchez (+135) vs Jim Miller $100.00 for $135.00= $135.00
Diego Sanchez +3½ points (-240) vs Jim Miller $240.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Diego Sanchez wins by 3 round decision (+192) $100.00 for $192.00= $192.00
Jason Saggo (-200) vs Justin Salas $80.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Jason Saggo wins by submission (+170) $20.00 for $34.00= -$20.00
Teruto Ishihara (+155) vs Julian Erosa $40.00 for $62.00= $62.00
Teruto Ishihara +3½ points (-180) vs Julian Erosa $72.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Teruto Ishihara scorecards = no action (+145) vs Julian Erosa $50.00 for $72.50= $72.50

Fights to go distance under 5½ (-122) $40.00 for $32.79= $32.79
Fights to go distance under 4½ (+220) $25.00 for $55.00= -$25.00
Fights to go distance under 3½ (+582) $15.00 for $87.30= -$15.00
Fights to go distance under 2½ (+1870) $10.00 for $187.00= -$10.00
Fights to go distance under 1½ (+8900) $5.00 for $445.00= -$5.00

Vitor Miranda wins Fastest KO (+1100) $10.00 for $110.00= -$10.00
Jason Saggo wins Fastest SUB (+400) $10.0 for $40.00= -$10.00
Holly Holm/Miesha Tate FOTN award winner (+350) $10.00 for $35.00= -$10.00

Parlay:
Diego Sanchez/Jim Miller Over 2½ (-240) + Holly Holm (-350) + Conor McGregor (-440) $200.00 for $247.08= -$200.00
-----
Total Loss= -$427.40
Such a crap night.

I ended up losing 1500.00. I'm sure as hell glad that bookmaker limited my deposit to 1499.00 for security reasons, because I was planning on laying down more.
MMA Thread Quote
03-06-2016 , 10:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag
Aldo called Conor a pussy and wants a rematch at UFC 200.

Who do you take in the rematch?
Aldo by sub
MMA Thread Quote
03-06-2016 , 10:27 PM
It'll either be Conor KO again or Aldo sub. I think he matches up well with Aldo and less well with Edgar who doesn't have Aldo's power, but is faster with better movement and has better takedown offense

Will definitely be looking at the Edgar sub line when he fights Conor, and maybe the Conor r1 KO hedge as well (if anyone can KO Edgar it's Conor)

If Edgar sub is +400 or so i'll definitely be making a play there. The longer the fight goes the more it favours Edgar though plus if he can get on top of Conor I doubt he will make the same mistakes Chad did

The Aldo fight made me a believer on Conor but his Nate performance showed such little heart and fight IQ that i'm starting to think Frankie beats him again. I do think Conor can beat Aldo a second time though. Matchups make fights the same way that Holm is a bad matchup for Rousey and Tate is a bad matchup for Holm yet everyone excepts Rousey to crush Tate again easily in a third fight.
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03-06-2016 , 10:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sect7G
Connor was and still is great for the sport. My point is he would have done the exact same thing for 50% of the money he has earned.

I'm really hoping Connor goes back to 145 and fights Edgar. Aldo rematch would be good to and Connor will fair better against Aldo's style imo.
Yeah you could certainly make the argument that they've overpaid him a little, especially since the disclosed fight purses are probably just the tip of the iceberg. Hard to argue with the results though, from a business sense.

The move back to 145 (in time for UFC200 I'm assuming?) seems almost certain based on the post-fight chatter. I'd def take McGregor again over Aldo, Frankie I'd have to think harder about. Who actually gets that fight prob comes down to who's healthy and prepared enough to be able to take it.

Did anyone else notice the subtle little thing Dana did afterwards BTW? He's started talking about Diaz getting a title shot off the back of this win, but a title shot against Robbie Lawler, NOT Dos Anjos. They're really pushing that this was a welterweight fight, not a fight between two lightweights who just didn't bother doing a cut LOL. Leaves the door open to McGregor fighting RDA and them saying hand on heart "well he's never been beaten in the UFC lightweight division!!" :P

Which is a joke because by current standards this clearly wasn't a real welterweight fight...
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03-07-2016 , 12:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OzExorcist
Yeah you could certainly make the argument that they've overpaid him a little, especially since the disclosed fight purses are probably just the tip of the iceberg. Hard to argue with the results though, from a business sense.

The move back to 145 (in time for UFC200 I'm assuming?) seems almost certain based on the post-fight chatter. I'd def take McGregor again over Aldo, Frankie I'd have to think harder about. Who actually gets that fight prob comes down to who's healthy and prepared enough to be able to take it.

Did anyone else notice the subtle little thing Dana did afterwards BTW? He's started talking about Diaz getting a title shot off the back of this win, but a title shot against Robbie Lawler, NOT Dos Anjos. They're really pushing that this was a welterweight fight, not a fight between two lightweights who just didn't bother doing a cut LOL. Leaves the door open to McGregor fighting RDA and them saying hand on heart "well he's never been beaten in the UFC lightweight division!!" :P

Which is a joke because by current standards this clearly wasn't a real welterweight fight...
Yeh, it's crazy to give Diaz a shot at Robbie at Welterweight with Thompson, Woodley, Condit and Rory at the top of that division.

I’d like to see RDA vs Diaz 2 rematch and then match Conor up with the winner if he wins at featherweight since both would be a massive title fight with either Nate vs Conor 2 and Conor can claim that he underestimated the extra weight last time or if RDA wins then it’s Conor vs RDA which already has a story around it. Even if Conor loses there are still a bunch of good contenders for RDA or Diaz in that division like Khabib or Ferguson.
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03-07-2016 , 09:15 AM
Any talk about Nate getting a Title shot in any division based on this win is ridiculous. He doesn't even come close to deserving one. He was wrecked by RDA already and at WW he hasn't beaten anyone in the top 20.
He did look good against MJ but that puts him at #5. The clear next TS at LW belongs to Khahib/Fergusson winner. Both have been on massive win streaks against better opposition then whom Diaz has faced/beaten at LW.

The promotion deciding who gets paid more than others I don't like but I can live with it. Much like the WWE does. But I can't support a promotion that gives people fights over others who have put their lives on the line to earn it.
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03-07-2016 , 10:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stereoman
Those who like boxing and are down on MMA are crowing...

https://twitter.com/TomBoxingAsylum/...71193742426112

They can STFU as far as I'm concerned. Two words: Lucas Browne. Not impossible to go from MMA to boxing and become a world champion.
Well all know any top 10 ufc fighter in Floyds weight class would destroy him in a ufc match
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03-07-2016 , 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grumpy64
Well all know any top 10 ufc fighter in Floyds weight class would destroy him in a ufc match
I'd go as far as saying any ufc fighter in floyds weight class would destroy him. From what I know Floyd doesn't train leg kicks (nor checking them) and he doesn't train takedowns / tdd. In a boxing match? He'd embarrass all of em.
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03-07-2016 , 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
It'll either be Conor KO again or Aldo sub. I think he matches up well with Aldo and less well with Edgar who doesn't have Aldo's power, but is faster with better movement and has better takedown offense

Will definitely be looking at the Edgar sub line when he fights Conor, and maybe the Conor r1 KO hedge as well (if anyone can KO Edgar it's Conor)

If Edgar sub is +400 or so i'll definitely be making a play there. The longer the fight goes the more it favours Edgar though plus if he can get on top of Conor I doubt he will make the same mistakes Chad did

The Aldo fight made me a believer on Conor but his Nate performance showed such little heart and fight IQ that i'm starting to think Frankie beats him again. I do think Conor can beat Aldo a second time though. Matchups make fights the same way that Holm is a bad matchup for Rousey and Tate is a bad matchup for Holm yet everyone excepts Rousey to crush Tate again easily in a third fight.
I don't think he matches up with Aldo as well as he did before. He got exposed here which will give a lot of fighters more confidence against him and make his mental warfare much less effective imo. Especially those with BJJ BB's and wrestling. If Aldo can put aside any emotion he my be a slight fav here.
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03-07-2016 , 01:38 PM
Connor is a great entertainer - he is not a top level mma competitor.
Give me Aldo in a rematch all day.
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03-07-2016 , 01:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by westswindon
Connor is a great entertainer - he is not a top level mma competitor.
Give me Aldo in a rematch all day.
I've backed against Conor a few times but to say he is not a top level mma competitor is silly.
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03-07-2016 , 02:32 PM
Let's see how good GSP is fighting heavyweights. All of a sudden he'd look like a joke.

For his weight division Conor is the top of the MMA class.

Quote:
Originally Posted by westswindon
Connor is a great entertainer - he is not a top level mma competitor.
Give me Aldo in a rematch all day.
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03-07-2016 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sect7G
I agree with that. By the end of 2016 Connor will be looked on as a total fraud to this business. Good on him for making money... but he will lose against Edgar/RDA/Kahib and a fair amount of the time against Aldo or Holloway. 155/170 is a pipe dream for him.

By 2017 he will retire and be the next Chael Sonnen.
I agree with this. The thing is when you talk that much you absolutely need to win or you destroy your credibility and you whole schtick implodes.

There is just no way to talk that much **** and then lose to a guy that had no camp and still save face. If Conor loses to RDA and Frankie I think his career and hype will be coming to an end.

It is not just that he lost but all his hype is deflated...
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03-07-2016 , 05:05 PM
If he beats Frankie, he's back on track. Although I have a hard time seeing it. If he thought Mendes got him down easy, wait till Frankie gets his hands on him.
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03-07-2016 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiiftx
If he beats Frankie, he's back on track. Although I have a hard time seeing it. If he thought Mendes got him down easy, wait till Frankie gets his hands on him.
My thought process exactly, think the fight would be tremendous especially the fact that Frankie has constantly been passed over for the next guy granted it's been due to injury I can imagine Frankie is hyped as hell to make this fight happen.

Perhaps saving it for UFC 200?
MMA Thread Quote
03-07-2016 , 06:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiiftx
If he beats Frankie, he's back on track. Although I have a hard time seeing it. If he thought Mendes got him down easy, wait till Frankie gets his hands on him.
Absolutely 100%. If he can beat Edgar (without it being a 1 punch KO thirty seconds into it) then he is back on top of the world... and deservedly so.

The issue for him is when you wipe away all the hype he has terrible wrestling (Mendes showed) and terrible bjj (Diaz exposed). Granted the punch might have stunned him. And his chin isn't that good (Diaz exposed).

In a pure stand-up fight he's top of the food chain at 145 and maybe even at 155. If he's smart, and I do think he is, he will take Aldo over Edgar... and if there's an injury he'll take Max Holloway. Basically anyone that won't, or is unlikely, to take him down. Edgar is his kryptonite. At 155 RDA and Khahib will crush him. His TD defense is so bad that it would take years to get it up to par and against someone like the last 3 I mentioned. A 1 punch KO is his only realistic shot of winning. That's not a good spot to be in, just ask Roy Nelson for so many of his fights.

In the post fight press conference he mentioned why Edgar and Aldo both have a claim to challenge and made it seem like it was a tough choice... I'm willing to offer anyone even money that the answer will be Aldo.
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03-07-2016 , 08:34 PM
Conor would have to run really bad to even get to the point where he is earning less than $1,000,000 per fight.

I think McGregor vs Aldo 2 just got bigger (even though both are coming off of stoppage losses - LOL). And McGregor vs Edgar is still huge.

Even If Conor gets embarassed in his next fight by Aldo or Frankie, they'll probably give him someone like Faber or BJ Penn or Cub.

He's a big puncher with a big mouth and will never be anything less than a former champ. His future is bright.
MMA Thread Quote
03-07-2016 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sect7G
Absolutely 100%. If he can beat Edgar (without it being a 1 punch KO thirty seconds into it) then he is back on top of the world... and deservedly so.

The issue for him is when you wipe away all the hype he has terrible wrestling (Mendes showed) and terrible bjj (Diaz exposed). Granted the punch might have stunned him. And his chin isn't that good (Diaz exposed).

In a pure stand-up fight he's top of the food chain at 145 and maybe even at 155. If he's smart, and I do think he is, he will take Aldo over Edgar... and if there's an injury he'll take Max Holloway. Basically anyone that won't, or is unlikely, to take him down. Edgar is his kryptonite. At 155 RDA and Khahib will crush him. His TD defense is so bad that it would take years to get it up to par and against someone like the last 3 I mentioned. A 1 punch KO is his only realistic shot of winning. That's not a good spot to be in, just ask Roy Nelson for so many of his fights.

In the post fight press conference he mentioned why Edgar and Aldo both have a claim to challenge and made it seem like it was a tough choice... I'm willing to offer anyone even money that the answer will be Aldo.
Yeah I think they'd definitely prefer Aldo over Frankie, little bit less risk and it has the built in storyline. But whoever they announce there's a decent chance the other one actually ends up in the ring on fight night with the injury histories etc.

I'm not entirely ready to write off Conor's ground game or his chin yet though. He took some monstrous shots from Mendes and kept coming, while Diaz caught him coming in. Full credit to Diaz for doing that, I'm not saying he got lucky or anything (quite the opposite). But pretty much any fighter will go down in that spot.

As for his wrestling and TDD in the Mendes fight he claims his knee was shot in that one, and I've seen a few serious analyses of the fight that back that up... so who knows.

I still feel like I'll definitely take McGregor at around even money in a rematch with Aldo, and with this result combined with the "lucky" KO last time I suspect we might get a price close to that. Aldo doesn't pose the problems Diaz did (has proven he can be knocked out by McGregor's power, doesn't have the height and reach advantage that Diaz had).

And if he fights Frankie... I think I probably don't bet too much on it and just enjoy the show instead :P
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03-07-2016 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anteatereater
Even If Conor gets embarassed in his next fight by Aldo or Frankie, they'll probably give him someone like Faber or BJ Penn or Cub.

He's a big puncher with a big mouth and will never be anything less than a former champ. His future is bright.
LOL Conor against Faber/BJ/Cub would just about be sanctioned murder
MMA Thread Quote
03-07-2016 , 10:42 PM
As a bettor I'm most worried that Conor vs Frankie for the featherweight belt will get announced next- as it should be in my opinion- and the lines will open much closer to evens while I am stuck with this huge future bet on Conor vs Frankie at -175 that I will never be able to hedge out of.
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03-08-2016 , 02:47 AM
Connor's not a 1 KO fighter though (awful comparison to Nelson), he's a very technical standup fighter with a vast array of weapons. His BJJ is alright (not on the level of Diaz or other black belts), but the reason he got passed so easily is because he was hurt and tired (and didn't have the instincts that the best black belts mma fighters have). What I'm mostly worried about is simply his stamina in 5 round fights.
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03-08-2016 , 04:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiiftx
Connor's not a 1 KO fighter though (awful comparison to Nelson), he's a very technical standup fighter with a vast array of weapons. His BJJ is alright (not on the level of Diaz or other black belts), but the reason he got passed so easily is because he was hurt and tired (and didn't have the instincts that the best black belts mma fighters have). What I'm mostly worried about is simply his stamina in 5 round fights.
Nelson also has great tdd and defensive bjj and grappling to keep it standing. As for Conor's gas tank, I'm suspect of it in three round fights at this point. He pulled a Mendez but not on 2 weeks notice.
MMA Thread Quote
03-08-2016 , 04:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiiftx
Connor's not a 1 KO fighter though (awful comparison to Nelson), he's a very technical standup fighter with a vast array of weapons. His BJJ is alright (not on the level of Diaz or other black belts), but the reason he got passed so easily is because he was hurt and tired (and didn't have the instincts that the best black belts mma fighters have). What I'm mostly worried about is simply his stamina in 5 round fights.
He was kind of getting it handed to him by Mendes for the first 8-9 minutes and still seemed pretty fresh after taking that. Diaz landed 77 sig strikes in a round and a half in that fight. He's never had to deal with anything close to that before, and I don't see anybody at 145 putting it on him standing like that. I think he gassed just from getting hit over and over, not from cardio. The non-defense on the ground was way more concerning to me. Mendes didn't get there, but there's certainly the chance he could make somebody with a marginal top BJJ game look like Maia on top of Sonnen.
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03-08-2016 , 05:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Truant
Nelson also has great tdd and defensive bjj and grappling to keep it standing. As for Conor's gas tank, I'm suspect of it in three round fights at this point. He pulled a Mendez but not on 2 weeks notice.
We're comparing the striking though, Nelson has been outstruck by many fighters because he's one-dimensional in the striking area (a one trick pony who's really good with his one trick), Conor isn't one-dimensional in the area, so that's where I saw that the comparison was bad (especially since his finishes come by way of TKO more often than clean KO, and Nelsons come by KO).

Heck, Nelsons BJJ is legit, which Conors isn't nearly in the same degree, so really Nelson isn't a good comparison to Conor.
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03-08-2016 , 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimGunn
As a bettor I'm most worried that Conor vs Frankie for the featherweight belt will get announced next- as it should be in my opinion- and the lines will open much closer to evens while I am stuck with this huge future bet on Conor vs Frankie at -175 that I will never be able to hedge out of.
I think it will open as -140 fav for Connor and might rise to -160 but come fight time might go all the way down to evens as a lot of money might come in on Edgar.

I am really interested on how Connor who is a master at psychological warfare adapts moving forward with this loss on his record.

The Nelson comparison I made wasn't fair I suppose. And comparing Connor at 170 to him at 145 is apples and oranges. I don't think I've even been more stoked about a fight announcement on who he fights next so I guess he is still very relevant even to a critic who's more inclined to root for the grinders of the business.
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