I think line movement will probably go as you describe, Conor will still open as a slight fave and then come fight time money will come in on Frankie. My guess is a lot of casual fans got burned pretty bad this time around with Diaz.

When it comes to psychological warfare I don't see Frankie being phased at all by Conor's bs. Frankie is a no nonsense guy that just shows up to fight.

Honestly, not sure what Conor is going to be able to say to criticize him.

Yeah...Conor will try though and the UFC must love him for that, getting media outlets that otherwise couldn't care less, suddenly very interested.

Derailed the hype train but saved Conor from a potential mauling against Robbie Lawler at UFC 200 (I can"t believe that was seriously considered if Conor had beat Nate). Eight figures be damned...surely not worth the damage it likely would have caused.

Early prices at European bookies: Conor McGregor 4/6 (Coral), Frankie Edgar 6/4 (Paddy Power).

...am so tempted to bet on Frankie Edgar at 6/4 as that's gonna drop but it might be McGregor-Aldo 2 instead.

All Frankie has to do is do what Chad Mendes did but better...or just did what Nate Diaz did! The blueprint to beat Conor is there.

I doubt he ever fights Edgar, but if he does the psych warfare will be around how he calls the shots including dangling it in front of him for a while because he gave Edgar an opportunity to change his bum life and he backed out due to a bruised vagina. He will talk about how he doesn't deserve it because clearly Frankie is very emotional about the fact that he does.

If he is smart, and even his worst critics can't claim he is not very smart, he will slow burn Frankie as he trains to fill in gaps against him IF he ever bothers with him. This will not only eff with his head while he preps, but honestly to build that fight they need more than just the fact that real fans think Frankie can win. There is no drama yet.

as long as Connor beats Jose in a rematch at UFC 200 he's golden. He'll eventually fight Frankie at 145 or 155 but it probably will be next Dec/Jan at the earliest. Assuming he doesn't try and move up to 155 again after defending the belt.

Losing to Jose, esp by TKO or Sub, means he moves to 155 permanently and tries to climb the ladder there imo

Swinging and missing at full power so many times would have definitely taken its toll too, he's simply not used to doing that.

Fired a unit on Matthews at evens as my first play for the Australia card; think he closes as a small fav vs Case and while they're both great prospects i'll take the Australian in Australia. His only loss was Vick and he was winning that fight handily before getting caught I don't think he'll make the same mistake again.

Also taking Lombard KO at +345, he may be coming off roids but he has power, is at home and Magny got dropped hard by Gastelum, there's a good chance Magny can grind him out but there's also a good chance Lombard just knocks his head off; given Lombard is a small fav I think Lombard wins by KO over half the time when he wins (most of the rest by decision) so I like it.

Torn on the main event between Mir sub at +350 and Hunt wins in r1 at +170 not sure which I prefer yet although I like both I think

Will probably play Carlos Jr wins in r1 if price is decent too; i've done well betting on Kelly as a dog (I bet on him in his last 4 fights as a dog and he won 3) but he's only getting older and I think he's going down hard and early to the younger Brazilian here.

My plays so far

1u Matthews +100
0.7u Lombard KO/TKO +345

Magny has won me a few decent bets in the past... and I know Lombard can gas badly. But my gut still says Lombard wrecks Magny the majority of the time and this shouldn't be close to even money. Coming off PEDs must be a big question mark in a lot of people's minds?

Added on 0.4u Lombard Scorecards No Action -181

I might even like that more and add a bit more on, Lombard is old and coming off roids but he's still never been finished and it's 3 rounds, Magny should not take Lombard down easily and while he might out-jab him does anyone see Lombard quitting mentally in front of a home crowd and Magny's not the type to one-punch KO him

I'm seeing it as Lombard KO/DEC or Magny DEC pretty much always

Beating guys like Lim is impressive and Magny is not the same fighter who was KO'd by Mike Ricci on TUF but still... his chin while fine isn't made of iron and Lombard has heavy hands. I don't like Lombard at all, and Magny's burned me a lot of times including Gastelum (although he was close to being finished in that fight and got dropped) but I just don't see how he wins this other than maybe jabbing at range in a boring snoozefest if Lombard gasses or can't fight without roids. Lombard can win by blitzing him early, any random one punch KO, ground and pound or a decision standing. Magny could submit him if he gets on top on the ground, but Jake Shields couldn't do that against Lombard (granted Lombard was roiding but Shields is a still much more dangerous grappler than Magny)

Swoop I like your assessment of Lombard and Magny. Does anyone know how Lombard looks? If he looks even close to his former self then I see him as a -250 here.

Magny has won me lots... but his chin isn't that good (Gastellum dropped him twice) and his gas tank isn't up to snuff (probably due to weight cut). The 5 round fight with Gastellum was all standup and he was huffing by r4.

Lombard is frightening and a lot of guys don't want to engage with him and with good reason.

From Stockton Slapped to Jersey Shored: The Conor McGregor Fall.

Frankie is about his grind. I agree. If he can handle a few of Conor's lefts like Diaz did (and it would seem so, according to his track record), then he will bulldog his way to that belt.

I think this is a close fight but I favour Magny as a straight pick. What does Lombard bring to the table that Kelvin or Silva doesn't? Magny is far from a lock but I love him as a dog in a fight he can win with the right game plan.

He executed perfectly against Kelvin and kept him on the end of his jab. There was just one moment when Kelvin caught him but otherwise that fight was all Magny IMO. Lombard can def catch him but I like Magny's chances at keeping this a rangey jabfest.

Does anyone know the cage size? A slight detail like this could effect things greatly.

Honestly don't know. It's the same arena that featured Hunt vs. Bigfoot though and it does look like the 25ft cage was used for that one.

https://youtu.be/yu4DaVNqvuY

I'm planning to go live.

Magny has steamed in and that continued today he's the fav now, although according to props the market thinks he wins a decision and if it's close Lombard should have hometown guy judging to factor in. I think Magny needs to win two rounds clearly to get the nod. Another reason I don't mind Matthews over Case, if it's close the Australian is more likely to get the decision for the 'Brazilians in Brazil' reason.

Lombard looks slightly smaller than roided-lombard on Instagram but it's not a clear picture I assume he'll be in shape but slightly smaller like any guy coming off steroids

The TKO prop is up to +365 now, which I still like but i'm not going to add more on at least until weigh ins as steam's going in the other direction at the moment

Hunt UD +1450 maybe... but surely no way Mir lasts 5 rounds on the end of Hunt's jab, even though Bigfoot did that was before he was off TRT and lost his chin I don't think it will happen but +1450 is tempting

Would you prefer Lombard in a big or small cage? Magny has the reach and Lombard has the wrestling and power so smaller's good for Lombard right and bigger for Magny?

Absolutely. The smaller cage has lead to way more KO's on average for all fighters as they're more forced to engage. This clearly favours Lombard as Magny's only option to win is a stick and move approach. He doesn't have any punching power so it's all about volume for him.

Agreed. Cage size will make a big difference in Magny fight. If it ends up being small I will def. hedge some with Lombard KO.

What do you guys think about Khabib v. Ferguson? I hear a lot of people on Ferg. but man I really like Khabib's smothering style.

Ferguson is exactly what a fighter should be. Always presses regardless of the damage he's taken. His last fight was just awesome. He has introduced some new flashy TD attempts or Sub attempt via a rolling ankle lock... or whatever the f he was trying.

But I think Khahibs style in close is going to be too much. The Khahib RDA fight shows what the best 2 in the division can do... btw I think that performance was indicative of the "new" RDA. He never broke and never stopped trying... khahib was just too good at the TDs.

I like Khahib via decision or late round TKO for Ferguson as Khahib might get tired and Ferguson won't quit or break. A legitimate tough guy in this business.

Khabib at -160 to -170 range hes at will be one of my biggest bets of the year. I've bet on Ferugson in something like 6 of his last 7 fights but if Danny Castillo can hold you down to a close decision, Khabib sure as hell takes him down at will

It's 5 rounds right I was thinking Khabib DEC but in a 5 rounder will prob just take him straihgt up

Ferguson is a top 5-6 LW now who is dangerous and could finish him, but I expect Khabib to grind him out enroute to a 50-45 or late tko/sub. If it's the same Khabib that beat RDA post injury then he's the uncrowned champ and I love the price. He strikes me as a mentally strong guy so i'm hoping he will be.

Castillo couldn't even hold Fergusons jock strap now. He's improved... and by a huge margin. I put him ranked top 3 right now behind Khahib and RDA. But Khahibs wrestling is just on another MMA planet. No one in MMA has the TD's that he does.

Invicta FC 16 Risk $477.50

Amber Brown (+130) vs Ayaka Hamasaki $100.00 for $130.00
Jennifer Maia (+150) vs Vanessa Porto $50.00 for $75.00
Stephanie Eggink (-115) vs Angela Hill $115.00 for $100.00
DeAnna Bennett (-175) vs Roxanne Modafferi $87.50 for $50.00
Jinh Yu Frey (+140) vs Herica Tiburcio $50.00 for $70.00

Parlay:
Andrea Lee (-245) vs Sarah D'Alelio + Irene Aldana (-230) vs Jessamyn Duke $75.00 for $76.53

I like Kody Nordby over Andre Soukhamthath at -110 on AXS TV tonight. It's a classic grappler vs striker match. Nordby has better wrestling and he predicts a first round submission over his opponent in his MMA Oddsbreaker interview.

CES MMA 33 Risk $110.00

Kody Nordby (-110) vs Andre Soukhamthath $110.00 for $100.00

I added to Eggink when the line got better: Stephanie Eggink (+105) vs Angela Hill $100.00 for $105.00

Dogs are barking. I switched to Duke since my earlier parlay busted anyway and she has a significant size advantage: Jessamyn Duke (+190) vs Irene Aldana $50.00 for $95.00

Lots of Magny steam and some decent Matthews steam so im on the right side of one and wrong of the other movement wise. Lombard +410 for the KO seems insane but won't add more as I have plenty already

Added 1u Pearson at +105 think hes a small fav vs Trujillo, Trujillo might KO him but I think Pearson is more like -125 than +105 here