no it's ufc. Where the guy getting punched in the face sometimes gets as much credit as the guy throwing the punches

I dunno much about anyone on the next card and besides the main event and the Tampa card looks really well priced to me so it looks like I won't be betting too much for a while :/

JDS and Rothwell are at pick 'em on Pinnacle. If anyone had told me that was going to be the case six months ago I wouldn't have believed them.

And for some reason I still can't bring myself to believe in Rothwell...

Pretty disappointing to pick Neil Magny winning in round 3 so big and still end up losing money. Seo Hee Ham was just too undersized against Bec Rawlings even though I think she's a better fighter. Few other fights didn't go my way too. Totally underestimated Steve Bosse for example. Props to Daniel Kelly for exceeding all expectations again. Sucks to wait three weeks for the next UFC card. At least I have five hundred bucks coming to me from winning the Winter 2016 UFC Tapology Contest in which I came in first place. They said they're mailing me a check tomorrow, which takes some of the sting out of this.

UFN 85 Results

Frank Mir (+150) vs Mark Hunt $100.00 for $150.00= -$100.00
Frank Mir/Mark Hunt Over 1½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00= -$110.00
Frank Mir wins by submission (+305) $50.00 for $152.50= -$50.00
Frank Mir wins by 5 round decision (+1416) $50.00 for $708.00= -$50.00
Neil Magny (-120) vs Hector Lombard $120.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Neil Magny wins in round 3 (+1300) $10.00 for $130.00= $130.00
Neil Magny wins in round 3 (+1550) $50.00 for $775.00= $775.00
Johnny Case (-115) vs Jake Matthews $115.00 for $100.00= -$115.00
Antonio Carlos Junior-3½ points (-375) vs Daniel Kelly $187.50 for $50.00= -$187.50
James Te Huna (-230) vs Steve Bosse $230.00 for $100.00= -$230.00
James Te Huna wins by submission (+568) $20.00 for $113.60= -$20.00
James Te Huna wins by 3 round decision (+529) $60.00 for $317.40= -$60.00
Seo Hee Ham (-120) vs Bec Rawlings $120.00 for $100.00= -$120.00
Seo Hee Ham (-105) vs Bec Rawlings $105.00 for $100.00= -$105.00
Seo Hee Ham wins by 3 round decision (+150) $66.67 for $100.00= -$66.67
Live In-Play Seo Hee Ham (+400) vs Bec Rawlings $50.00 for $200.00= -$50.00
Bec Rawlings scorecards = no action (-195) vs Seo Hee Ham $195.00 for $100.00= Cancelled

Brendan O'Reilly (+415) vs Alan Jouban $40.00 for $166.00= -$40.00
Brendan O'Reilly +3½ points (+240) vs Alan Jouban $40.00 for $96.00= -$40.00
Brendan O'Reilly wins by 3 round decision (+700) $40.00 for $280.00= -$40.00
Not Alan Jouban wins in round 1 (-140) $105.00 for $75.00= -$105.00
Dan Hooker/Mark Eddiva Over 2½ (-137) $54.80 for $40.00= -$54.80
Rin Nakai (+135) vs Leslie Smith $50.00 for $67.50= -$50.00
Rin Nakai wins by 3 round decision (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= -$50.00
Richard Walsh (-110) vs Viscardi Andrade $55.00 for $50.00= -$55.00
Richard Walsh/Viscardi Andrade Over 2½ (-147) $73.50 for $50.00= $50.00

Ross Pearson (+100) vs Chad Laprise $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Ross Pearson scorecards = no action (+105) vs Chad Laprise $75.00 for $78.75= Cancelled
Ross Pearson/Chad Laprise Over 2½ (-240) $120.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Ross Pearson/Chad Laprise goes 3 round distance (-205) $102.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Alan Patrick -3½ points (-150) vs Damien Brown $60.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Alan Patrick wins in round 1 (+325) $25.00 for $81.25= -$25.00
Alan Patrick wins by submission (+528) $20.00 for $105.60= -$20.00
Alan Patrick wins inside distance (+150) $40.00 for $60.00= -$40.00

Fights to go distance over 5½ (-104) $41.60 for $40.00= -$41.60
Fights to go distance over 6½ (+266) $25.00 for $66.50= -$25.00
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+732) $15.00 for $109.80= -$15.00
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+2525) $10.00 for $252.50= -$10.00
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+11700) $5.00 for $585.00= -$5.00

Seo Hee Ham/Bec Rawlings FOTN award winner (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00= -$10.00

Parlay:
Seo Hee Ham/Bec Rawlings Over 2½ (-225) + Antonio Carlos Junior (-500) vs Daniel Kelly $136.50 for $100.10= -$136.50
-----

Total Loss= -$732.07

Rothwell made a comment about his rise in the HW division recently.

He said that he used to use Roids but so did everyone else. Now that no one can use... or at least not as much as they used to he has a big advantage.

Because he's naturally a huge guy not taking roids hurt him.. but only by a little bit.. whereas his opponents were hurt terribly by not juicing.

JDS is a mere shell of his former self and without juice he's screwed.

Wow, just saw the scorecards and two refs had Case up 20-18 going into the third so if Matthews didn't get the finish he would have lost. Absurdity.

Also Lombard vs Magny was 19-19 somehow no judge gave either fighter a 10-8 round

The judges were off in several fights this past weekend. This is annoying... but Percival the judge for Lombard-Magny should be axed. He didn't protect either fighter and this goes beyond annoyance to me. His first and primary job is fighter safety... rules come second. He managed to endanger both fighters in the same fight.

What's the general thinking on when he stopped juicing? Off it for the Overeem fight, still on it for the Miocic fight?

That sounds about right. Also for JDS in particular Cain really stole his soul.


Brings me to a question for discussion. Top 5 list of fighters who had their soul eaten by another fighter and were never the same afterwards.

1) Rich Franklin by Anderson Silva
2) JDS by Cain Velaquez
3) Matt Hughes by GSP (2nd + 3rd fight maybe)?
4) Sakuraba by Vanderlei Silva?
5) ???

I hope not...but maybe Anderson silva by weidman. Of course it may be the injury more than anything Weidman did.

"I am going to go on record and I'm going to go with the upset on this one -- I'm going to go with DC. For some reason I just feel like DC's going to get this fight. I think that DC now is a better DC than the first time that Jon fought him. Also I think the layoff is not easy to come back from and Jon's never really had to face this. So mentally going into the fight, there's some things different. There's some things different as far as USADA thing, and it just has a different feel. Mentally, coming into this fight, I think (Cormier) is in a different place. I'm a huge Jon Jones fan as far as his talent and everything in the Octagon, but I just worry that Jon under this new mindset, this new Jon Jones, is he going to still be able to go out there and do the things that we've seen him do so easily?" - Rashad Evans

Thought this was an interesting quote. Am I reading too much into this? Honestly, JBJ would be pretty low on my list of guys juicing, but it's a really odd thing to say. The fact that he didn't outright accuse him makes me more inclined to give it credence. On the fence whether or not it's about routine or an underhanded allegation.


quoted here:
http://www.mmamania.com/2016/3/21/11...-jon-jones-mma

has Rashad seen JJ lately? Looks like he's been cycling in his off season.

Never bet against Jon Bones Jones. Upsets are in peoples mind because they've been happening all over the place, so there's some recency bias going on I suspect. Things will even out and JJ will hulk smash DC. Not gonna say DC hasn't improved, but taking all that damage from Gustavson and absorbing a punch from Anthony Jonson isn't good for one's brain.

I tend to agree i'm not betting against Jones again unless maybe it's Gustafsson coming off a couple wins after getting his confidence back at +500 or maybe if Jones goes to HW and fights Werdum or someone

Jones actually wanted to fight someone of Werdums size, he said he didnt want to fight the bigger HW's, but someone like Cain, Werdum etc were more his weight.

That's odd since a lot of the really big heavy weights aren't the most skilled and I feel like he would have a lot easier of a time against them.

Possibly Shogun against Jones?

Well, Jones relies a lot on cage work / clinch, and vs a big guy like Rothwell, he'd have trouble holding him against the cage.

Age is a big factor here, dc is getting close to where we should see a big drop off especially now trt exemptions have gone.

Machida DEC vs Hendo is tempting at +420 in a 3 rounder... Machida should finish Hendo easily, both are in decline but Hendo is drastically further removed from his prime than Machida is... but there's a chance Machida fights tentatively coming off a nasty loss. Thoughts?

It seems absurd Machida SUB is shorter than Machida DEC, surely the order of likelihood is KO, DEC, then way down to sub

Swoop, has there been a line released yet on Machida ITD? I think he can SUB or KO Henderson fairly easily and early in the fight.

#1 definitely Gray Maynard getting taken to the draw and then KOd by Frankie. Absolutely ended his bully mentality and his career.

Yeah. That's a good one.

It's also fun to think about fighters who lost twice to one opponent (via stoppages both times) then went on to become UFC champions.

I can think of three off the top of my head.

That's def. a good one. Prior to Edgar he was poised to be the next LW champion.

Yeah I agree with this and expect to see DC fade in round 3-5. JJ is a ridiculous athlete and can keep a good pace for 5 rounds assuming he trains for this fight.

Regarding the Machida fight I don't trust him to finish ITD. I recently watched their first fight and Machida is incredibly tentative.

I think that this Rothwell vs JDS fight is going to last quite a while as both are quite durable. I really like the props here. I think ill be betting a little on every round starting as well as each fighter to win by UD...The books seem to think that one of them winning by UD is only a couple percent higher than one winning by SD which seems crazy to me