From what my girlfriend is telling me, i prolly dedicate 16hrs a day to horse racing & handicapping. Then usually i'll take tuesday to chill out. For me Mid, its not just all about handicapping. Cos once uve done ur handicapping of the horses, its now time to devise ur game plan... Like, how am i gonna approach the day, how am i gonna choose to bet this. Handicapping the horses is uber eazy for me these days (whats not uber easy, is knowing how to play it & what pool to get in). The reason I think that is much harder, is bcos those decisions are predicated off of what the public is doing & where there putting there money & how the track is playing. So im making those decisions on the fly as the tote information flows in & as each race is run allowing me to see if the track is developing a bias, etc. Cos basically, I knew yesterday what horses i liked, but until the race gets 22mtp, i cant really make the crucial decisions as to how im gonna play the race & get the most value out of what I like. You can def have a good idea ahead of time how the public is gonna play a race, but u really never know until u get to the race. A good example would be the horses at keeneland that Honcho & PDiggz pointed out itt that should have never been taking massive amounts money. I would have never thought the day before that the public would go bat **** crazy over "IndyGoFMA" & make him an 8/5 favorite, but they did & bcos of that, i changed my entire approach to the race. So for me, its handicapping all the races & then staying glued to the video stream, the tote board/probables/pool sizes,etc. so that i can try to find an edge & exploit it. That is what takes up most of my time, the actual races themselves. 25% of my time goes to horse handicapping & the rest goes into bet strategy & watching the races. One caveat to this Middy, is im a lifer n this game & im knee deep n it 7days a week, no matter if its 5kclaimers @Beulah on a monday or the 1st saturday in May @Churchill. I have bought the racing form everyday for the last 5yrs so its jus ingrained in me to start the day out cappin horses. Everybody is different when it comes to how much time they need.. My uncle says to do things properly, he needs 1hr to handicap a race. Another guy i know, that helped me cut my teeth at the track would always say "study long, study wrong", cos he only needed 5mins to handicap a race.fwiw

This year itt for the Oaks/Derby, we should do some bets together!! Like, everybody itt throw down $10 each & then we could play an Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick3, where we each pick our top2 horses each race & go with a spread city ticket(buckshot ticket seems more fun, vs. using slugs & trying to single sumthin). Or the big pick4 on saturday would b fun to have a community ticket on. Wouldnt b very hard to do & to make it sumthin worth doin, I say that with any winnings/profit we donate it to a cancer research non-profit organization or some other organization we agree on thats gonna put the $ to good use....

Anyone interested?

I just casually bet I know one thing I'm wasting money. I work full time so it makes it tough to spend hours a day. I need to take time learn to cap and on my days off when I want to make some bets make sure I'm just not betting to bet. My dad has been into racing my whole life. Betting on harness racing he's also always had a full time job. I got into racing last year and have been hooked since last years derby

QFT As always ATS explains it very well and exactly what i am doing as well. The capping does not take me as long as the on the fly stuff does thats for sure. Setting the game plan on how to attack a card and also a game plan to adapt or catch up depending on tote or tourney play.

Be down for that ATS for sure...CHD looks like a fast but fair course by my eye and if it stays like this for derby day i believe i am going to do well.

hey room. i was just reading the last couple of post. i havent been in for a while. 2 minutes left and washington up 5. seems the time is here for derby fever. honcho i hope you are feeling well and making money. its derby time and i know my main man gomez is gone but i rep him still because hes the man. well of course if u know me u know im reppin my area horse THE CHROME. Fav or not hes reppin hard just like ill have another did. I seen a comment somewhere stating he is just a man amongst boys. of course ill bet others and the oaks / derby double and pick 3 with some others. as always post positions will get the real work started. id like to know if anyone is betting less than usual since the hike in purse takeout? take care and best of luck and skill

Hey sgvoak nice to see you itt my man and CC is the word so far for sure...Not doing too bad still puke a lot everyday but it is what it is.

Going to cap CHD see if I can get some picks up did not sleep for chit so a little tired but just going to rub a little dirt on it and get going for the day

Honcho, you must be a tank to endure all that nastiness!!! My heart goes out to u my man!!
My sick degenerate version of xmas comes around 7:30pm eastern tonight "Derby PP's" become available!!!! Yea baby!!! Cant wait to dive into these pari-mutual puzzles!¡

Churchill Downs 4/30/14

1.) 1-3-4
2.) 3-1-5
3.) 2-5-1
4.) 2-4-5
5.) 8-7-3
6.) 2-4-3
7.) 3-10-4
8.) 8-4-7
9.) 3-8-4
10.) 8-6-4

Looks like some spot value today throughout the card imo.

ATS not sure I am a tank lol I use to be 269 lbs so I was almost the size of one now 145 but its a mean 145 and a good dancing weight It can only make me puke and pain not going to ever stop me from laughing and capping! Anxious for the draw myself.

hey room.. so the plan so far is the 20 double untappable/ chrome the the double untappable / with my top 8 and smith / stevens / rasario / w top couple. looking at dale romans horse in 2nd 3rd spot johnny v in the unders watch out for mike smith / gary stevens team work. man im all over the place. lets see the post and the racing sheets but the double bet is a for sure play

Any1 else hitting refresh repetitively in hope's of seeing CD May3 appear???lol

Not working

should be working now

Ok. Last year I liked Orb going into Derby week and he looked great at CD leading up to the race. In 2012 I liked Ill Have Another who also looked great at CD leading up to the Derby. My decisions were primarily picking runners underneath. Up to this week, my plan was to find runners for underneath CC. However, I am hearing allot of skepticism over the way CC has looked since his arrival in KY, combined with the uncertainty of him travelling in the first place and not having any major work over the track. In the favorites absence, I would be looking at Hopportunity, Dance with Fate, or Intense Holiday. Any thoughts on how CC looks in KY so far?

Post 17 for CC

No idea who I'm taking yet this year. Could be Hoppertunity or Wicked Strong or some longshot. Probably wait until we get closer to post time on Sat when we have a better idea of the odds. Can't take Chrome at 5-2.

honcho - 12-14 hrs/day?

agree CC at 5-2 seems awful. think CC wins or some crazy longshot. is there really a clear 2nd choice?

3 of the horses i was thinking of using - vicar's in trouble draws the rail, so cross them out. Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong draw 19 and 20. anyone ever won from that far out? seem like best you can do is maybe minor placing. you got to go slow work to the rail and then weave through traffic and pass 18 or 19 horses.......

About that yes. Been up now about 36 hours feeling like chit and watching some video replays hoping at some point I can get to sleep for fri/sat races.

Big Brown only horse I recall winning 20 hole. ROC will have to be the best horse by far on sat to win from 19.

Hey Najd do not blame you for waiting.

I thought Hoppertunity drew best.

this....
Plus million dollar mikey kinda tipped his hand today when he was grinning ear to ear.... He knows hes got more horse underneath him now, than what he had in the Santa Anita Derby...Derby

No horse won post 17. 1 win each at 18,19,20

honcho - how many tracks are you handicapping? how much time just looking at pps.

i live on the west coast and work fulltime so m-f is pretty slim. maybe catch a race or 2 at ct or mnr but thats about it. even weekend i'll often play a morning/afternoon track and afternoon/evening one. but usually only handicap a few races each card - ones that look good or seem interesting for whatever reason.

Pdiggz horse racing is my life/passion so it really does not feel like work. I may cap say a single card an hour game plan that card maybe an hour on a reg day. If i am in tourney play I will cap several tracks/cards on a day but usually I will cap the tracks running like now CHD and BEL and SA. My circumstances are different than most as you know pdiggz because variance is catching up from complications from liposarcoma so I choose to attack each day the way it does me and compete at horses.

Been getting away with the float play so why change

With you ATS tick tock tick tock...

time to start looking at some video. big feilds strong horses great closers and most of all jocks with wins. ex winners on top best horses under for exacta and trifeca. this morning i looked at a pice i have of the winners circle with you know i know (my buddies neighbor) garrett gomez in the irons. i told my brother just like this pic is CC gets the 5 post hes gonna win. now yes value wise CC aint the one but the win is the win and if u choose him at 3 to 1 7/2 with all trust its gonna pay.

Here are a couple short priced Kentucky Derby winners...

KD 2000

KD 2004

I can't bet against California Chrome. Either I bet him or just watch.

Wicked Strong and Ride on Curlin are in a world of hurt out there. ROC has had 3 less than inspiring races at CD. WS has done nothing wrong so far, but he will be behind at least 14 horses turning onto the backstretch. That amazingly perfect ride he got in the Wood? Not gonna happen.

Horses to watch? Why not in no particular order Hoppertunity, Danza, Chitu, Tapiture, Vicar's in Trouble, General A Rod, Intense Holiday, Candy Boy.

Good luck all. I will be pounding on the Friday card. Can't wait to see the undercard for Saturday...