How much does surface change come into play? I would think a horse winning on synthetic would be even faster on dirt.

I may be an idiot but who does this help? Closers?

It is my understanding that a headwind in the stretch can hurt the closers. The front end horses have an easy glide down the backstretch and turn for home with more energy. When the closers are trying to make their move is right when they are turning into the wind.

I imagine I have seen this play out at Gulfstream Park, but of course that track heavily favors the front end to begin with.

Someone with more knowledge could chime in.

This is why I picture a horse like Wicked Strong turning for home 6-8 wide into the stretch, greeting 25 mph wind gusts in his face and churning up for 5th about 12 lengths behind the winner. There now it is in print so you can laugh after the race.

Good luck all. I have not been to bed yet...

You are asking a tricky question. I have read articles and there is no clear cut answer. I have seen a number of horses win going from synthetic to dirt. These are usually horses that ran well on dirt in previous races (see Animal Kingdom). AK's time winning at Turfway was not impressive. The way he moved over the track was.

It is also clear that some horses take to the synthetic. Why? Can't say for sure. Some believe that turf horses do well over synthetic, but statistics prove that not necessarily true. Take We Miss Artie as an example. Two wins on synthetic and hasn't sniffed the wire on dirt. Does he just like the even, cushioned feel under hoof? Throw him out.

If you want to beat Chrome a $1 exacta box with 7 horses in it costs $42.

Then play a $1 pick-3 starting in race 9: 1,2,4,5,8,9,10,11 with 1 with 5.

I can't pick the 7 horses though - you will have to do that!

I am always happily shocked by this. And was crushed when I missed of course. The old "how does it pay that much?!" For years I keep saying to myself "you can hit some all buttons these two days you big dummy!" Yet I missed a couple doozies today by getting cheap - namely the pick-5 with two singles. Ugh.

Hold your head up!

Since you asked....$40 W wager on your KY Derby horse take $10 to buy a beer and enjoy the race collect winnings after race and enjoy free beers

Woke up saying CMOM CHROME and I will be saying that as he has the lead coming down the stretch today at Churchill to win imo the 140th KYD.

Could not of played much more ignorant yesterday tournament wise but there is today to top it

Best of luck all itt and lets have some fun.

Thanks for the advice. Who wins the money if wise Dan loses? I can't wait for the races!

I am going with CC today. How idiotic would this be? 5/all/all.

Il let u know after the 11th race..........
jk, but in all seriousness, if ur ever gonna b able to justify playing a tri with the fave on top & ALL in the underneath slots, today is the day for sure. This is sumthin i like to do when im singling a horse in my horizontals, I will ask myself should i just take what this ticket is gonna cost me & instead bet that money to win on my single? So in ur situation for example, id b asking myself if my potential winnings of $535.50 on a $153WIN bet on #5 @ 5/2 is is a better potential return then playing the .50c tri 5 w All w All. If it runs 5-20-19, u mite only make a lil money. However if it runs 5-2-7, or sumthin cray cray like that, ur a genious. See what im sayin???

Indeed I Do. Thank You.

Churchill Downs 5/3/14

6.) 9-4-7
7.) 8-5-7
8.) 3-1-10
9.) 3-9-10 (2,7,11)
10.) 1-10-5
11.) 5-19-6

I see the 9th as the most wide open.

Mid I was just kidding man my motto has always been its your cash wager it any way you choose and bol my man.

I'm going to make the 5/all/all bet and also build a small superfecta ticket with 5 on top. As of this morning my plan was to also make a win bet on 12 & 16. Maybe I wont make the win bets now, seems to indecisive.

This is sumthin im muddling over myself. I keep wondering if Wise Dans gonna be today's Will Take Charge.... Theres no need to wonder if he's good enough to get the job done, thats for sure. My big reservation is the distance & post. Last year when WD ran in this race, it was marred with scratches, and ended up being a weak field. To add to that, the turf was soggy as heck that day & was impossible to close on & its my opinion that the yielding course helped WD carry his speed further than what it would on a dry, firm CD turf course. So the extra 1/8 mile has me concerned & also bcos of how keen & head strong WD can be outa the gate, the 1 post is a concern as well with the speed signed on next door to him, so hypothetically speaking, if WD gets boxed in down on the rail & is head strong throwing his head everywhere it wont bode well, & bcos of it being a longer race than what he's accustom to running, he may get bottled up & worse yet, have his run choked outa him by the time there turning for home.
In WD's last race, do you think Kaigun was gonna go by WD if the race had been a 16th of a mile longer?? If you think he was, then that makes him even more vulnerable today... However, the monday after WD's makers mark win Charley was on Steve Byks radio show & he insisted that once WD saw Kaigun he would have taken off again & never went by him....
Its in my opinion, that Charley Lopestri starts off WD's year with the 1mile race each year as a rust shaker & then it would b my guess that they use this 1 1/8mile race more as conditioning race to get him fit & ready for his summer campaign at Saratoga, cos they never race him longer after that...... So obv WD is plenty good to overcome trouble, extra distance, & a bad post, but im never confident if im playing a horse thats using the race as a tune-up. But hes so damn good & it prolly wont matter. However, if im trying to beat the gutsy gelding, im using 2,3,5,7,10.

Safe to say that CD is being kinder to the speed today... They havent passed, but one horse today & that was in the 1st race & it took Borel the entire length of the stretch to get his nose by.... This certainly aids CC's chances imho.

The bias could obv be wind aided instead of it being a surface variable. Gonna go back & watch the first 3 races to look at the flag pole. Will b valuable information if somebody notices the flag go motionless & the wind die down.

I heard several reports during the week that the inside was considerably cuppier.

It seems that people think the track most comparable to CD is Oaklawn. How would it compare with Santa Anita? I would assume a soft inside would not be in the best interest of CC. Is this even an issue leaving the 5?

The wind should be consistent today. Right now WSW at 21mph.

Smarty went off at over 4-1, a lot better than 5-2. Paid over $10 for each 2 you bet. Also he was undefeated.

Nothing wrong with CC, I just can't bet him.

Looking at Danza, Ride on Curlin, and Wicked Strong right now. Probably avoid CC mostly and box in a bunch of longshots for the exacta, go for the huge payout this year I think. Put CC in tri-boxes, of course.

Headed to the track in a minute, go over the DRF some more. Think I may just take all the longer shots with distance pedigrees in the exotics. I hate when I get caught backing an 8-furlong horse in the derby.

Playing Samraat for at least $100 to win, maybe more, depending on how the rest of my day goes ha. He has steadily improved throughout his career, should be able to get the distance, and his price is great for a solid contender. The trip will determine the winner I think, and he should get a good one hopefully sitting just behind some tiring frontrunners, and maybe pin California Chrome on the rail and get first jump. We'll see.

$30 to win on Wicked Strong, using this more as a saver, I would hate my life if he won and I didn't have a dime on him.

In exotics, primarily putting Samraat on top, and playing smaller with Wicked Strong.

I really like the chances of Ride on Curlin and Commanding Curve to run well. Prices on both are nice, and if they hit the board underneath I've got some signing to do weee.

6-20
6-20-19-17-3-5-6
6-20-19-17-3-5-6-8-12-1

Various combinations using these animals, but my strongest tri ticket will be 6 / 20-17-19-5 / 20-17-19-5-3. Will probly play that ticket for $2-3.

Good luck.

The NBC broadcast is really starting to play up the Speed Bias..... Usually what happens in these situations is, every jockey riding a front running style horse thinks they have a big chance now if they can jus get there horse to the lead outa the gate & then the track & a fit horse will carry them home, but usually when that happens in this specific race, the bias caves & the closers get the roses & the speed is nowhere at the end.

is there some chance the middle of the track is bad? horses out in the 5 to 8 path today seems to spin wheels? Had a nice win ticket on Midnight Lucky trusting the speed but had 8-5 crushed and the 1 stabbed me in the heart.

I couldn't bet against California Chrome. I hope he blows away the field.

How square am I if I bet Vinceremos?