Quote:
Originally Posted by zioxcult
As a non-fan of horse racing here only because of the sore-loser rant, I have a question for the knowledgeable horse fans.....
In hindsight, what were California Chrome's odds of winning? If it's SOOOOO impossible to win vs fresh horses according to the owner, then why was Chrome less than even money, while the winning horse was 9-1?
Basically, it feels to me like 1 of 2 things must be true.
EITHER...
The owner is right, it's REALLY hard to win for Chrome, and therefore the betting public are idiots for taking such low odds
OR....
The owner is wrong, the streak 30+ year streak of no triple crowns is just an unusual fluke and placing bets at slightly less than even money is reasonable.
I'll give my opinion of some of these questions.
You didn't ask, but yes, sore loser rant. Complete donk. He acts as though he thinks the Triple Crown is something that was set up specifically, when in reality was just a moniker given to winning three already prestigious races. There's nothing that says his horse had to run at Belmont if he felt it was all unfair, as he should know, because he threatened to take him to LosAl...
Not impossible for horses that have been running to win against fresh horses. Happens every day at every track across the globe. There are many angles handicappers look at all the time, one of which is how long the horse has been off since last race. Many times you choose the horses that have been running races, and are not coming off a layoff. Many animals "need a race" before they fire their best. In horseracing, it truly is a matter of "it depends."
Just to win 3 races in a row is difficult, study some PPs of proven winners. Note how few very very good horses win 3 in a row, and come back and report the results - I'd bet the percentage is quite low. It's difficult, and to win 3 grade 1s in a row, against stiff competition, it takes a special animal and special effort.
As for the public, IMO, yes, the public was stupid for taking him at such odds. That's what makes them the public. You asked what his true odds were of winning the race? Well, who knows? That's what your handicapping is for. If you are asking me, I'd tell you that I felt as though he was the best horse in the race. That if you lined him up and ran a straight match race 1-on-1 vs all the other horses in the race, he would win most of the time. I personally figured him to win the Belmont around 1/3 to 2/5 of the time. You might look at what I just wrote and say, wtf? you think he is the best horse in the race, but will win only 40% of the time? Well, ya, and maybe not even that. Have you ever watched a horse race with more than 10 horses in it? All kinds of trouble can happen - bad start, bumping, getting cut off, jockey misreading a hole or can't get through, goes outside when a spot opened up on rail, etc etc etc. Not to mention jockey falling off or injury the list of trouble goes on and on. It happens, it's a horse race, not a math equation.
Given all that, you have to figure what price you are willing to take for the horse you think is going to win. I would have probably bet on him to win at around 8-5, not lower. At 4-5, hell no. As I once heard, ain't a man alive can pay the rent on 4-5.....
That is why I bet a bunch of different combinations of horses in exactas and trifectas to try to beat CC, the horse I felt was best, in hopes that he missed the board and the tote would blow up, which is exactly what happened. I had the right idea, and wrong horses. I never put Tonalist on top, had him in underneath spots only. Didn't win a dime. And while I lost that day, I had a strategy designed to win big, if something that the public was betting would happen, didn't happen.
Sorry for the book, this is all just imo and I get caught up in some of this stuff, and since I post infrequently, guess some of it just came out haha.