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Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen?

12-13-2020 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
as you got closer to herd immunity wouldnt the rate of infection and deaths slow way down instead of going up.
Once you kill off all the weak and useless people yes. We're not there yet. But will be soon at least in the US.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 07:39 PM
Shuffle gonna Shuffle

Estimates of actual to reported infections vary wildly, and 8x is the highest I've heard in a long time. We might be half way to herd immunity, but I wouldn't bet on it. We also might be less than a fifth of the way,.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 07:51 PM
besides herd immunity might not be real in that it may not last long enough. remember only a few spread it around the world to start.
and immunity may not last long especially for the great majority that had mild or no symptoms. so after all the vaccines it can start up again easily if the vaccines have a shorter lifespan than thought.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 07:53 PM
shuffle you are missing the point. if you dont go on the ride which you shouldnt, you lose nothing. if you dont get the vaccine you greatly increase your chances of dying from the virus.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
shuffle you are missing the point. if you dont go on the ride which you shouldnt, you lose nothing. if you dont get the vaccine you greatly increase your chances of dying from the virus.
yeah, his analogy needs another parameter, like if you decide not to go on the ride then there is a chance that a bunch of terrorists storm the park and start shooting people, and you would have been safe if you had been on the ride but instead you are gunned down as you were trying to leave because you aren't brain dead and refused to sign the waver.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 08:25 PM
People who have no problem stuffing themselves with taco bell and pizza washing it down with Coa cola for their entire lives afraid of getting a flu shot lol. Because it might risk their health.

This is like half of america.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
I try to be the rational voice of reason, that is all. I see two camps of people, the MAGA covidiots who refuse to wear a mask and socially distance for asinine reasons, and everyone else, who are so anti- anti-vax and covidiot that they are rushing into the abyss to sign themselves up for unknown consequences.

Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Socially distance. Do your part to not get infected and not spread the disease to vulnerable people.

If you are young, middle-age, and/or healthy -- anyone who is not in a high-risk group -- don't sign yourself up for magic mystery sauce.

I realize I belong to an increasingly small constituency of nuance and reason, but there it is.
or just listen to the experts in the field as they know far more than what the actual risks are than people who are just randomly making guesses like you or me.

Maybe they are saying not to get it, I dunno, I haven't looked. But I'm sure there are lots of people who actually know what the risks are from a shorter period of vaccine testing vs what the risks are from the virus it protects you from.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 08:30 PM
Dude, you are farther from nuance and reason than almost anyone. You have your mind made up and you state your opinions as fact and cherry pick sources if you even have any.

I am not 100% sure about these vaccines, but they clearly aren't scams or zombie juice. The biggest reason vaccines take so long is that phase 3 studies usually take a long time for the control group to have enough cases to make the stats valid. In a pandemic, that goes fast.

Sure, there is a non-zero chance that the vaccine will have some unexpected issues, but there's also a known chance of major issues from the disease (not only death, but also long-term ling problems, etc.) even for those not previously identified as high risk
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 08:33 PM
I'm not sure of the numbers, but would it not be the case that by the time the pecking order works its way down to folk like you're describing, mid 30s, healthy, we'll know if herd immunity has been achieved? Or not necessarily achieved, but we'll see solid indicators as opposed to the rampant spread we're seeing right now?
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle

Keep looking down on people, it will probably serve you well in life.
Has nothing to do with looking down on anyone.

I just don't get the logic of people in the boat that I described. And it's significant. Just making an observation. To which your only rebuttal is that I'm looking down on people. So that's telling.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 09:06 PM
Not this again.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
People who have no problem stuffing themselves with taco bell and pizza washing it down with Coa cola for their entire lives afraid of getting a flu shot lol. Because it might risk their health.

This is like half of america.
Lol, true, plus you know the saying: 30 apples a day keeps the doctor away, and makes the bathroom smell invigorating.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 27offsuit
Not this again.
Pascal would get the vaccine.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 09:22 PM
Any post calling vaccine mystery sauce should be insta deleted. Idk if it's good, idk if it's bad. Would not be surprised if this vaccine is trash or some miracle cure...either way...but mystery sauce is some fringe lunacy
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 10:26 PM
okay lets change over to who we think should get the limited vaccines until more becomes available. and maybe debate or give some reasons why valid or not.
here are some possibilities

1. health care people. make sense as they deserve it and are in the mix of things. however what is something happens and the vaccine is deadly we lose all our health care people.
2. nursing home folks. maybe not as they are only catching it from those visiting or working there. they dont go out. but they are the most vulnerable to die. shouldnt just those working the homes get it, and the next level gets those doses.
3. older people in good health. they are vulnerable but took care of themselves and should be rewarded.
4. older people in bad health. they are much more vulnerable than number 3 but made a decision to live not so healthily and now should have to get later in line. however they take up more hospital beds. but should that be a reason to favor them?
5. who is next?
6. do we be greedy and hog it for the u.s. or spread it equally around the world or to the most needy at our own risk.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 11:19 PM
This is how they said they're distributing it in the UK.

1 - Residents in a care home for older adults and their carers
2 - All those aged 80 and over. Frontline health and social care workers
3 - All those aged 75 and over
4 - All those aged 70 and over. Clinically extremely vulnerable individuals
5 - All those aged 65 and over
6 - All individuals aged 16-64 with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease and mortality
7 - All those aged 60 and over
8 - All those aged 55 and over
9 - All those aged 50 and over


Two groups will not receive the vaccine:

1 - Pregnant women
2 - Most children under 16

They added people with a history of allergic reactions after the first couple days, too.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 11:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Dude, you are farther from nuance and reason than almost anyone. You have your mind made up and you state your opinions as fact and cherry pick sources if you even have any.

I am not 100% sure about these vaccines, but they clearly aren't scams or zombie juice. The biggest reason vaccines take so long is that phase 3 studies usually take a long time for the control group to have enough cases to make the stats valid. In a pandemic, that goes fast.

Sure, there is a non-zero chance that the vaccine will have some unexpected issues, but there's also a known chance of major issues from the disease (not only death, but also long-term ling problems, etc.) even for those not previously identified as high risk

+many!
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-13-2020 , 11:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
okay lets change over to who we think should get the limited vaccines until more becomes available. and maybe debate or give some reasons why valid or not.
here are some possibilities

1. health care people. make sense as they deserve it and are in the mix of things. however what is something happens and the vaccine is deadly we lose all our health care people.
2. nursing home folks. maybe not as they are only catching it from those visiting or working there. they dont go out. but they are the most vulnerable to die. shouldnt just those working the homes get it, and the next level gets those doses.
3. older people in good health. they are vulnerable but took care of themselves and should be rewarded.
4. older people in bad health. they are much more vulnerable than number 3 but made a decision to live not so healthily and now should have to get later in line. however they take up more hospital beds. but should that be a reason to favor them?
5. who is next?
6. do we be greedy and hog it for the u.s. or spread it equally around the world or to the most needy at our own risk.

sex workers should be on the list, just because they're a likely spread vector.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-14-2020 , 12:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
I linked you to the experts in the field. The same ones who are passing laws to indemnify the manufacturers from legal liability.
.
I didn't see anything in any of those links that had experts saying it wasn't worth the risk for healthy people to take the vaccine
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-14-2020 , 01:33 AM
I have no issue with Shuffle, and have no issue with some healthy skepticism. But he seems intent on slamming the vaccines as either scams to sell insider stock (Moderna) or overhyped press releases (Pfizer). Even though we now have the full Pfizer data published in the NEJM which shows its effectiveness.

Now he says old people should get the vaccine but not young. Well, does it prevent Covid or not? Covid is a disease most would prefer not to get, even if their odds of death or long term health effects are quite low.

Bottom line is, it is true we do not know long-term side effects from the vaccine yet. We can't know after 2 months. However in the history of vaccine development the overwhelming majority of side effects become evident within the first 45-60 days. Honestly at some point people need to suck it up and trust the process and get vaccinated, to end this year long nightmare the world is living through. People are losing their businesses, their life savings, their jobs, their contact with their loved ones, and their emotional well-being.

Last edited by revots33; 12-14-2020 at 01:40 AM.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-14-2020 , 01:54 AM
Yeah, I’m not afraid of dying from the flu, but I get the flu shot every year even if it only increases the chances of me not getting it by half. Because getting the flu sucks ass.

We’ve been developing vaccines for a pretty long time now. I think there is a lot we know and overlap in terms of ingredients and mechanisms. People act like this is some new unknown substance we procured from Mars and are just giving it a try.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-14-2020 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Easily 300k-400k daily cases in a couple months, maybe higher. But at some point testing won't capture the true scale of infections.

2+ million U.S. deaths base-case scenario
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Why would most people take it? The U.S. is at or approaching halfway point to herd immunity. Many people have already been diagnosed or already had the virus and don't even know it. Especially if they are low-risk they are signing up or being told their vaccination should be mandatory with unknown efficacy and unknown long-term side effects for drugs that have only been in phase 3 for a couple months (vaccines are usually developed over 10 years).

Unless you are old and high risk you'd have to be completely brain dead to volunteer for experimental drugs.
It's not both of these. Pick a doom lane, Shuffle- you can't just doomsay everything.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-14-2020 , 02:54 AM
Don't burst his bubble. World is ending literally rn...next few months, by next year, soon enough you will all rue the day you doubted shuffledamus
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-14-2020 , 08:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
okay lets change over to who we think should get the limited vaccines until more becomes available. and maybe debate or give some reasons why valid or not.

4. older people in bad health. they are much more vulnerable than number 3 but made a decision to live not so healthily and now should have to get later in line. however they take up more hospital beds. but should that be a reason to favor them?
People seem to not realize that some others in bad health do not "deserve it" and didn't "bring it on themselves". My nephew has type 1 diabetes, asthma and has survived heart surgery from a defect when he was a child. He is a hard working man supporting his family and does his best to eat right, exercise and make good decisions. When people are lucky enough to be born without significant health issues it would be nice if they didn't look down upon those who have had to struggle with them.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
12-14-2020 , 09:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
I have no issue with Shuffle, and have no issue with some healthy skepticism. But he seems intent on slamming the vaccines as either scams to sell insider stock (Moderna) or overhyped press releases (Pfizer). Even though we now have the full Pfizer data published in the NEJM which shows its effectiveness.

Now he says old people should get the vaccine but not young. Well, does it prevent Covid or not? Covid is a disease most would prefer not to get, even if their odds of death or long term health effects are quite low.

Bottom line is, it is true we do not know long-term side effects from the vaccine yet. We can't know after 2 months. However in the history of vaccine development the overwhelming majority of side effects become evident within the first 45-60 days. Honestly at some point people need to suck it up and trust the process and get vaccinated, to end this year long nightmare the world is living through. People are losing their businesses, their life savings, their jobs, their contact with their loved ones, and their emotional well-being.
A lot of that you can blame on the government reaction to the virus. The way they handled this virus that 99% of people will live thru is a ****ing joke and what I've read in this thread shows me that 2+2 doesn't science anymore. You guys are on the exact opposite page than the Dr's I listen to regularly.

Also being a beta tester for any pharmaceutical no matter what it's for is just dumb if you care about your body. Most vaccines we take have been around for quite a while. I'd say everyone here needs to stop watching the news and subscribe to some Drs on youtube that talk calm and rationally about Covid so you can learn some science.
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