There will be a run on pot shops. The state closed them last shutdown.

i think ca will keep pot shops open this time

well I can imagine anything, but in the context of "hard to imagine" its basically saying "incredibly unlikely", of which this is


what do you think the odds are that 2 million die? It's got to be less than 2%. (that's ~3x the entire population of north dakota btw)

New prediction, the rapture will be delayed until at least December 3.

The rapture will happen on Sunday, January 24th at 10 pm ET, shortly after the Cleveland Browns win the AFC Championship.

If the rapture happens, only like a dozen people are getting taken. The rest of us will still be here in the ****.

hard to put accurate odds, even if we spent our lives studying this kind of thing, it'd still be hard to give accurate odds. and i am just some clown on the forum... but my guess is 2% is too low. i'd say more like 10-20%

BUT even if you're right and it's 50-1 that 2 million people die, that is huge. that's way more deaths than ww2 which was 75 years ago(400kish iirc)

if you list all the events that caused 2 million american deaths... i believe the list is 0 items long

WTF?

https://lmgtfy.app/?q=how+many+people+died+in+ww2

ETA: Or did you mean just Americans?

yeah alobar was talking 2 million american deaths(i assume), so i was talking american deaths too

globally we are already at 1.2 million deaths. so he's gotta mean usa empire of evil deaths

2 million deaths is around 0.6% of the population. The worst states are currently in the range of 0.1% to 0.2%, and the ones at the top of the list are all states that got hit hard in the first wave and had relatively few deaths afterwards. Four of them had peaks of over 30 deaths per million per day in March. North Dakota has been hovering around 12 for the past few weeks and various other states maxed out just below that level before receding during the summer surge. Treatments are improving and/or vulnerable people are making more efforts than others to avoid infection.

Even if we assume true deaths are 50% higher than official figures it will take a lot of doing to reach 2 million in the US. Obviously if there are setbacks with the vaccines and immunity is garbage then the numbers will just keep going up indefinitely, but 2 million is not a defensible estimate outside of that context.

i agree with soah basically. my argument is that it's maybe 10-20% chance something happens to make more people die, like maybe a more deadly/contagious strain... or like soah said, if there is no vaccine, and we just keep catching it like other flus and colds.

i mean as far as i understand it, the chances for an effective vaccine are unknown. and it seems like long lasting immunity isn't a thing either. so it's not *that* crazy to imagine the possibility of continuing deaths indefinitely

Specific to Covid19, what defines a 2nd wave? Is the 1st wave over here in the USA or in Europe? If so, when did the 1st wave end, and if the 1st wave ended, has the 2nd wave begun, and if so, when?

The answer can be Europe based, or USA based, or Asia/World based, however you want to frame it.

Myself, I'm thinking the 1st wave, specific to the USA, has not ended? You can convince me the 1st wave has, or has not ended in Europe. And I would surmise, the 1st wave has ended in East Asia (China), but not ended in South Asia (India).

To summarize, has the 1st wave ended, and if so, has the 2nd wave begun?
Preferably answered for USA and Europe.

In Europe the virus was never totally eliminated, but its presence over the summer was very very low and our economies for the most part were effectively fully open.

Now there is a huge explosion in cases and deaths are rising and economies are set for very harsh restrictions.

So yes in Europe very much a second wave.

yeah, meant USA ldo, who cares about the rest of the world, Murica #1!!!

prediction: next week will be worse than this week for usa, but the following week, new infection numbers will go down

we will start to take measures to prevent the spread

(lol?)

some predictions from july

My prediction is the virus will continue to predominantly kill nursing home patients and those at the end stage of life, along with a handful of younger people who are vitamin D deficient.

The evidence of vitamin D being beneficial is overwhelming but no health authority is advocating its use, despite there being absolutely no downsides.

There will be more lock downs putting the final nail in the coffin for small business and putting hundreds of millions of people around the world into extreme poverty.

The death toll might hit 2 million by the end of 2020 which is less than a 1/3rd of annual deaths attributed to smoking cigarettes.

More and more politicians will float the concept of ubi.
The eventual vaccine won't be as voluntarily as some want to believe.

The bolded is absolutely not true. Vitamin D supplements, especially taken in high dosage can have severe negative effects. I'm not a medical doctor but I speak from personal experience after being prescribed vitamin D supplements.

From a Harvard.edu article https://www.health.harvard.edu/stayi...e-health-risks

If you want to raise your vitamin D go out and get it naturally with some sun. This goes for just about any vitamin or mineral you feel you're deficient in. Go out and get a natural food source or sun exposure in the case for vitamin D. Obviously if you live in a place where winters make sun exposure impossible take a little bit. Don't go beyond the dose of 600 to 800 IU recommended for most people.

There is also the slight problem that health supplements aren't regulated by the FDA at all in this country so it's impossible to really know whether the pill you're taking has what you want in the dose you want.

Prediction: I will have steak & cheeses when the **** hits the fan.




Found myself buying a little extra here and there for the freezer/basement on the most recent trip. Call me paranoid.

Massive, unprecedented skyrocketing of cases post-thanksgiving. Rolling lockdowns across the nation starting December 1st.

Debatable how effective these will be, but most local/state governments will feel forced to do something.

I would think that over the Thanksgiving travel period, every single flight will have covid on it in some form.

worldometers says 4.6 million active cases in usa. so that's about 1 in 70. but vast majority of those gotta be staying home, or at least not flying? i hope! hopefully like 95%? so that would be 1 in 1400, but then figure a ton of people have it and don't know it... so maybe like 1 in a 100 people have it on a plane?

obviously very back of the napkin figuring.

i haven't heard of pilots and flight attendants getting it. you'd think if it was spread on planes, they would all have it, like every single one of them.

I don’t know why people complain about the “lockdowns” in the US when everyone just does whatever they want regardless.

We are at 200,000 cases a day. Still people think let me just sneak in a normal Thanksgiving.

It’s like an alcoholic having one final night of drinking. It’s never going to end.

Oh sorry this is the prediction thread.

Pain. Pain is my prediction.

whelp... looks like i was off lol. i thought govt would have shut things down last week, or at least this week. but nope. *sigh* looks like they are at least starting to, in some places.

i think/hope as soon as we shut things down, the numbers will sink, just like before.

Prediction: When the covid handoff happens, the new admin will be so flabbergasted by the fact that as of right now our federal government is doing zero towards helping American citizens, it will wonder whether they can't not open investigations.