I predict gas will be under $1 per gallon by April 13th.

Probably. But I'm getting about three weeks to the gallon right now.

so many of the infected people show no signs. so they go to work and infect the elderly in the homes and it spreads from the close conditions there. almost no way to prevent it.
as many of them need close personal care just to function daily.

Sadly true. Massive testing of caring people without symptoms?

Prediction: I will gain 15lbs before I’m allowed out again.

I need to put a note on the fridge - you are not hungry, you are bored.

Next time you're "hungry," chug an entire bottle of water. If you still have an appetite, you're allowed to eat.

Becoming known as putting on a Covid 19.

If I was clever, I would have put 19 lbs.

I'm losing weight, partially because I'm walking 5+ miles a day.

I predict that there is a massive fracture with China when all is said and done.

Gonna be a massive fracture with your hip when you fall from walking so much.

I fell not long ago when my dogs leapt for a squirrel. I'm still 20 years out for hip fall danger; if I needed a hip replacement now it would not typically be a problem.

This Chris and Andrew show is really inane ... way more on Chris' part.

* And it just got a lot worse. Wow.

Inside or out? How much time is that? Keep it up, walking is magic for every system in the body as I'm sure you know.

With all these new trillions of new expense I think we owe China about 1 trillion ... can't we just pay it and owe somewhere else? Not that I really know how national debt even works but they own our production and our debt seems increasingly bad in terms of being dependent on them.

Walking is great for all the muscles, tendons, joints, immune system ... just don't max out your speed for 5 miles a day. That's exactly what I did for a few years and I ended up with the whole Tiger Woods syndrome +1. Seriously, medium pace, 5 miles ... beautiful. Stretch calves after.

I was off by about 7k.

But there are anecdotes of under-reporting/late-reporting of deaths in the UK, so figures may yet see somewhat of an upward revision (similar to what just happened in New York).

Congratulations, give the dogs a good scratch from me.

Curious as to what you mean with the second part. We weren't getting along all the great before, were we?

(Or do you mean a physical fracture, like we'll have to get The Rock to show up at Giants Stadium? )

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE

I don't max-speed most days. i alternate between fartlek and natural pace, and it depends on how many dogs i have with me.

I guess this is prediction thread so I’ll jump in


There is a 90% chance no football this fall and no spring sports either

Team sports are done until vaccine, herd immunity, or miracle drug

South Korea is at 2.2%

Germany is at 2.9%


Your lower numbers were likely because it takes 4-6 weeks to kill people so the deaths were lagging even as they did a decent job testing to see how many had it

This is the craziest post yet, besides your other matching one on the other thread.

NFL will for sure play this year and a good chance it starts on time.
MLB and NHL will play, Probably starting in June with possibly all teams gathering in a few locations to play. And could be a shortened season.

NBA will play this year and might jump to play offs all in 1 location.

For all of these there will be no fans to start, and even a possibility of limited fans at some point this year.

After seeing the new Guidelines for opening things up, I am even more confident these things all happen.

Well we will see in a few months but you are a sweet summer child if you think we will have baseball this year (and lolNBA happening this season)

And football isn’t happening either. None of the big 4 + MLS + NCAA major team sports will happen in the next 12 months.

The opening up soon is only going to increase the odds as the rebound will be much harder.

The current best estimate I've seen for Germany is like 0.3%.

Yes, Germany is testing a lot but there are still a lot of cases that are symptomless or with unspecific symptoms and no known risk exposure which don't get tested. So even in Germany, the number of unreported cases is quite large.

Furthermore, you got your statistics wrong. Yes, there is a delay in deaths reports (deaths become part of the statistics like 4-6 weeks after infection takes places). But the estimates of infected as well as recovered are skewed even more.

So mortality rates currently need to be constructed using a different approach.

The one I've seen has been of a small Bavarian town which was very heavily hit by covid-19 early on. In recent days, they've tested the blood of 500+ people from that town for antibodies. People were selected based on random sampling.

The result from that exercise is a mortality rate of ~0.3%.

Once again, the rationale for that figure is that a lot of people get infected and recover but that isn't detected. However, even that 0.3% figure is to be considered v preliminary and inprecise.

And clearly, you cannot just extrapolate from, say, South Korea, to the US given the hugely different policy approaches taken as well as differences in other factors (demographics etc.)

You would revise up for USA v S.Korea.

I look forward to a timeline of something along the lines of

- Sports claim they will open up, but they need a place to play, they claim they will go somewhere with not much by way of Rona issues.
- The places that don't have issues (because they went heavy on things like congregations between March-June) don't really want the sports to be played in their states, particularly people/teams coming from hard hit states without following certain protocols.
- Given fans can't attend anyway, sports become a "not in my backyard" topic among the states.
- The leagues realise they probably need to play in states more relaxed in who they will allow in and under what rules, which means they play in a Rona heavy state.
- A few big name players threaten not to play.

And then a cluster**** ensues.

A heap of golfers and tennis players didn't go to the Rio Olympics because of Zika, its certainly plausible a few of them decide to nope the **** out of a few events because of Rona.

------------------------------------

I posted this in another thread a few weeks ago, but I think it is plausible that if a few countries get on top of this more than others, that pro sports could be moved to that country provided that teams and staff meet strict quarantine on entry rules and pay the nations for their troubles.