Never claimed I listened to them or trusted the veracity of their data! As I said above, a big part of my motivation for posting it was that I think it's super amusing I can spend like 20 seconds posting a data point from Twitter and get you to spend like half your day twisting yourself in knots to refute it.

I don't know exactly how he got his data but comparing the raw numbers to JHU, which I believe use data directly from states, they are very similar. The data used only goes up to the start of February and has Florida with a CFI of ~1.85% (11521/624116) through 09/01 and ~1.46% (15608/1071184) from then until the start of Feb. NY does have a drastic drop, from ~5.81% to ~1.02% but as mentioned, NY is the one place where the evidence does strongly support the theory that being hit hard in the first wave results in a smaller second wave.

There might be issues with the data but unless you also believe that JHU/other commonly cited sources have terrible data then what you're pointing out isn't a very strong criticism.

So you are now saying you don't believe anything you post from twitter and are just here to troll.


Actually. You saw something you liked on twitter, wasn't sure if it was correct or not, posted it here while hedging your belief calling it "interesting". Now you don't believe what you posted and are trying to frame it like a positive that you are successful in wasting someone's time.

Good try. Good effort.

Considering the US had had 500k deaths, that means it most likely has about 100 million cases (using the universally accepted IFR of .5 percent), which means it reached herd immunity at around 30 percent of the population infected, which is obviously far below the threshold that most experts originally thought (not ones I listened to though) and most likely due to inherent immune defenses against the virus.

When people post their own made graphs on twitter there is almost zero way to look into their data sets and inputs. Nobody asks, nobody shares.

So nobody "verifies" anything that is happening on twitter. Plus there is too much bias on twitter. The only way to get any meaningful information on covid is to look at raw data sets yourself.

"Effort" is a misnomer, you definitely spent 10x more mental energy on this post and its edit than I have on this thread in a long time (other than dunking on Rika, I guess)

He got his data from an AI generated case guesser.

I think you're missing the fact that the CFR is literally worthless because the case fatality rate is based on tested cases, which has a huge bias (availability of tests, wealth, interest in getting tested, etc) which biases the data. Testing availability over time is an especially large bias as you note in NY's almost 6x drop in CFR. Do you think NY actually dropped nearly 6x in CFR from the first to the second wave, or was it testing going from severely restricted in the first wave to highly available?

It's a stupid, pointless, biased dataset. The only thing you can work on is deaths if you're going to do this analysis. Deaths don't lie and don't have biases, or not large ones anyway. They're your only reliable proxy for cases.

It's a definitive criticism because CFR is worthless, especially over time as testing availability when from "only the very sick" to "everyone who wants one"

The self owning you did with these posts is delicious. There was no twisting, I quickly looked at the data and easily and convincingly analyzed and refuted it. As for me, I enjoy looking at data and honing my intuitions and understanding (it makes me money, plus I'm intellectually curious), I type at 90 words per minute, and am sitting here watching the market anyway so nothing better to do.

So thanks for you post, you provided another example for the lurkers that very little Democrats do or say is trustworthy, from scientists using "data" to individuals. Nice own goal!

"Arguing with people on 2+2 makes me money" lololol

This thread and analysis in it have made me and others a lot of money, not least of which a 10 bag on various puts which I was able to take good size on based on the certainty developed through the analysis in this thread. I wouldn't have put that much analysis in without the discussion in this thread and the feedback on it, including detractors. That's literally what BFI is for - discussing stuff that makes money or hones your insight to make money.

To the extent the politics forum losers (Cuepee, tgiggity, others) reduce the quality of that discussion, it's a shame, but watching idiots like you own goal like you did above then try to backtrack is a perverse enjoyment.

Anyone who bases investment decisions on this trash fire thread is more or less begging to go busto

Another possible explanation involves the theory that spending twenty minutes with an infected person (which they say is approximately the amount of time where it becomes dangerous) is basically the same as spending ten minutes with two infected people within a short period of time or seven minutes with three infected people. If that is true how many of those who contracted covid got it through those shorter multiple exposures?

Its a relevant question because if 30% of the population has now been infected, a single twenty minute encounter with a person is 70% as dangerous now as it once was. But two shorter encounters are only about 49% to reach the danger level and triple encounters are only about 34%.

Could the experts have missed that?

I looked at CFR because your criticism was based on the drastic difference in the way the CFR in Florida and NY changed pre/post 09/01. I actually agree that CFR isn't particularly useful, especially when comparing very different time ranges, but you were the one who was using it in your criticism of the data set.

County level death data also shows ~0 correlation:



That data obviously has far more noise, but it's the same at the state level too (I don't think he did this specific comparison so I did it myself with his data):

When do we all expect Vegas to be back to normal?

Was hoping to be able to go and play cash non stop this summer...

They talk about this a lot in the LVL forum. I like your chances of it being relatively normal this summer based on what Gov Sisolak is saying.

Thank you.

You have things completely backwards. The guy who's bragging about the fun they had at lazer tag for their daughters birthday isn't on the verge of a mid life crisis. The guy who's wishing they were hitting up the beaches in Rio to crush ass instead, is having or headed for a crisis. As someone who has actually done that (highly recommended), I'll tell you it's not a goal to be doing that again in the future


To be fair to politics posters, this is better categorized as a member of the expert in internet dating thread community. I've only stopped by there a couple times to get a sense of "wtf is this guy all about" so I'm no expert but I would assume it's socially ******ed guys that didn't have the college experience at that time trying to turn back the clock a decade + later. Or just trying to develop social skills in general. A community where people in that situation give each other life advice is kind of "special"

The last time the guy with a french name stormed in here with a chip on his shoulder calling people lab truthers I checked to see the politics section covid thread and sure enough he's a regular poster there. Obviously coopee is the most frequent poster. The others occupying the podium of top 3 heroes are absolute clowns. I actually think it's an insult to the learn how to date at 30+ club to be lumped in with the politics regs

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/m...sted&t=1767965

Here was the 3rd most frequent poster on the only page I read

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...postcount=3505

The reason I'm posting this is because there seems to be no moderation here. I'm not reporting posts or in favor of strict moderation but there is a problem. For example there is a POG section and community on the forum. They have politics threads. If non members of the community come in there to discuss politics, they're given a very short rope. If posters showed up with built in disdain for the posters and community and **** all over the thread, they would be removed immediately. There is all different types of trash in here. Some posters contribute nothing and just show up as hecklers not even attempting to discuss the topic. Maybe a mod could ask some of the complete clowns to tone it down as a start. I don't mind a bit of noise etc but at this point the useful stuff is being buried in complete trash by people who don't actually participate in BFI

learning to date lol reminds me of the clowns who learn how to have conversations with new people...

just mind blowing stuff honestly

https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2020...xford-azd1222/

not sure if this was posted but funny how bill gates forced oxford to go profit only instead of open source like they originally wanted

make a foundation but everything has to be profitable lol

https://twitter.com/parismarx/status...121602?lang=en

Yesterday was the first day since Jan 12th that the worldwide 7-day average of new cases didn't go down.

Why was that, and what are we expecting going forward?

I've heard a few people agreeing that we return to relatively normal life by summer. Buying up stuff like DIS for the reopening of parks, etc, related stocks

One possibility is that more infectious variants are beginning to predominate.

I'll share with you why I'm sharing what I was doing (I've shared enough now, so I'll stop AFTER this post)...but it's 2 fold.

1.) It's been proven that covid isn't that dangerous except for the very sick and/or very old. Tooth and Tien have pretty much proven that over and over and over again, it's not really a debate anymore.

2.) Since covid isn't that dangerous, but American governors refuse to admit they overreacted, how should 1 person live their life? I'm merely showing that being trapped in the matrix is your own choice. You can simply choose to disobey the "powers that be" and if you're in America, not much happens to you. (I know a lot of people that don't wear masks, ignore all the governor's orders, and nothing has happened to them....some kept their businesses 100% open during the lockdown, some don't require employees to wear masks, some dentist never quit taking patients, etc. etc.)

Here's what happened to me. I was in Lowes in Washington state, wearing my mask even though I knew covid wasn't dangerous because "it's what people were suppose to do" and I didn't want to get kicked out and not be able to buy my rental supplies, so I wore it. I saw 2 guys not wearing their masks and I thought, **** it. I'll stand with them and not wear mine too. Took my mask off that instant, and haven't worn it since.

Nothing bad happens. No tickets. No yelling or screaming. In Idaho no one even gives a ****. In Washington no one does much other then "stay further away" from me and look at me funny occasionally.

I was in Lowes in Washington today, no mask, nothing happened. I was also in Home Depot, same thing.

I get that MOST people reading this won't change their behavior because of what I'm saying, but I do bet there's some people that are like **** it..I'm over this ****, I'm going to start making my own choices and living free.

Or maybe 100% ignore me and I change nothing, but at least I tried.



And if you think banging hot chicks on the beach is better then taking your daughter to a family entertainment center for her 8th birthday, then that's fine. That's subjective though. I value family as my highest priority in life, and I live my life according to my values. So I would prefer to take my daughter to go play laser tag. Neither is objectively better or worse, although subjectively we can all have our opinions on what we prefer.

But with that said, don't think I'm not also going out to bars, eating out, or doing other things that you'd view as "high risk"....because I'm doing those things too. (did Jiu Jitsu with 25+ people last night, going to church with 300+ people tomorrow, have a double date planned on Saturday night, etc.) But yes you're right, I'm not banging super models on the beach....I'm more of a sex with the wife in a hotel room when we travel to Hawaii type of guy.

How old are you Joe?

shitting on family life is straight up clown **** lol

If you are over 30 you should feel embarrassed

People generally get over the hoe phase by their late 20s and generally stop bragging about doing drugs way before that