Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Right. So before discussing details everyone should first answer this question:
Would you do something moderately distressing every day for a year if it eliminated a one in 5000 chance of you dying that year AND eliminated a 1 in 20 chance of someone else dying? Perhaps someone could make a poll.
(For those who answer no, what if it was mildly, 500, and 5?)
Individual impact from covid (the chance of you personally killing someone living your life normally) are less than 1 in 1000 per year, and less than 1 in 10,000 per year if you simply a) live your life normally b) isolate when obviously sick c) avoid old people or old people are isolated instead. That's because:
1. Worst case death scenario is 1 in 100 anyway
2. Isolating only when sick wipes out >80% of infections. R is only 2 or so and most of that 2 occurs when actually noticeably sick
3. Old old are >90% of deaths
4. Heaps of people got it anyway (perhaps 30% of the US) even with all these mask bros and hand washers and society shut down.
So your question becomes:
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Right. So before discussing details everyone should first answer this question:
Would you do something moderately distressing every day for a year if it eliminated a one in 20,000 chance of you dying that year AND eliminated a 1 in 5,000 chance of someone else dying? Perhaps someone could make a poll.
Pretty different question. Now add in large societal side effects and economic losses, the extension of global extreme poverty by hundreds of millions of people x many years, stunted child social and intellectual development, and trillions of life-hours lived very suboptimally (separate from the distress question).
Now add in the fact that there's no guarantee that all these long lockdowns will result in a better covid outcome when all the accounting is done (see: Europe second wave)
It's a no brainer really.