This is still going yet no bet? Why not just change the title to "Daniel Negreanu lamely backs out after saying he would bet 1 million dollars that he could beat high stakes online NLHE" and lock it?

You're outlevelling yourself. This guy's clearly doing what he can to ensure this bet takes place.

Don't the people saying "LOL Negreanu Fanboys" realize that they are being just as big fanboys for online players?

Ironically, trying to insult Negreanu, you're actually praising him.

If Negreanu's play is so fundamentally unsound, why don't the top online players play in tournaments and destroy him with their GTO ranges? If they really have such a huge theoretical edge, the only reason they wouldn't be able to beat him live is because he has a huge edge over them in picking up reads and manipulating people.

The reality is obviously somewhere in between. His play is not that bad, and his people skills and decades of live experience probably add to his EV.

But ultimately it's the same game - you can't be world class in one and be hopeless in the other. A top online HUD-jockey could learn to make adjustments based on live reads. A top live tournament player could learn to make adjustments based on HUD stats. It's fundamentally the same set of skills.

25/50 games so juicy these days that you don't want Negreanu bringing in more fish? I would think all the 50knl regs would be happy to chip in $1mil to cover the bet if every time he played over that period he attracted more fish to the games.

Sooooo when's it start?

I dont think its fair to say live reads and HUD reads are easily interchangable skills. Theyre totally different skills and not necessarily easy to learn just on the basis that one is adept at the other.

the problem people are worried about is that with his fame he gets random fish or weaker plays who dont mind donating money to sit so they can say they played with him. No one cares if he can beat fish at limit X/Y which is what people advocating stipulations against that are trying to keep from happening. You are right tho in saying "I can beat 25/50" you also get to play against fish just like all the other regs do, so its also not fair to say he should only be playing regs.

The thing is tho as has been pointed out, hes not going to be sitting there with scripting software so hes not going to get to play vs a fish, and if he sits its going to fill because he is the fish. So for him to have a shot at the fish or not get skinned by the regs, hes going to have to prove to them its not profitable to sit with him, or hes going to have to generate profit from the other regs who incorrectly think they can profitably sit with him. Which is what any new screen name who isnt scripting would have to do in thier quest to beat 25/50.

Given who he is and the nature of those games, its probably impossible to bet on the spirit of the "I can beat 25/50 after 2 weeks of study" comment sadly

Maybe instead of a profit he just has to win better than -Xbb/100 vs the regs. I mean if hes getting killed its obvious that there arent going to be enough fish to make up for it if he got to play fish at the same rate as some random 25/50 reg and if hes only just barely losing, you could reasonably assume if he did get to practice good game selection he would be able to beat the game.

This picture is freaking awesome.

Dnegs: I wont million.

NVG: You won't million.

You overestimate the level of skill and underestimate the degree of luck in tournament poker

God, can you imagine the amount of entertainment value and lols posts like this would produce if there was no such thing as leveling? If it were confirmed that this wasn't a level then it would be a 5star LOL but as it is now, good chance this guy is leveling/trolling. In the event he's not leveling though, the short answer is that the top online players do play live tournaments and crush there too but it's not their main game since they can win more consistently online without having to be prisoner to the insane variance of MTTs. Oh and how do you target and "destroy" a single player in a tournament? So you know, the last time these "online players" talked smack, DN called one of them out for a HU match online and lost if it makes you feel better.

this is essentially the crux of it. well written by someone who actually understands how these games work and run.

Stop overanalysing and overcomplicating things. He just has to down and play 50k hands. He plays who he plays.

I'd be happy to add "No Heads Up tables allowed" to avoid me playing a fish heads up. I agree that's unfair. Would have to be 6 max tables. Part of me being able to beat these games is my ability to attract better games than your average reg can. That happens in multiple ways, with either mediocre regs taking shots, and/or me being able to get people to play me in a 6max game. That would actually be really great for the regs. I don't think it's unfair for me to start a game with one fish and fill the rest of the seats with all regs. It's the same environment they almost exclusively play in, so I feel that I should have that right without having to seat script. Me being forced to sit at a table, then instantly face the top 5 in the world with no chance of ever playing against one weaker player, isn't at all something I believe I could successfully do with "two weeks of study" and it was never my intention. I would most certainly look to recruit more players to these games, possibly in a ZOOM format or standard.

Daniel the bet you proposed was not "I can get in better games than the average 25/50NL players on PS." It was "I can beat the average 25/50NL games on PS."

You recruiting fish who you have friendships with to make average 25/50NL games easier so that you can become profitable is completely out of scope for what the original proposition was.

I could beat 25/50 as well if I got to bring the right fish along with me

So how deep are the pockets of Daniels friends? My god what a feeding frenzy this is going to turn into for the regs.

Maybe HS games wouldn't be as dead if regs tried to create games/action instead of seat scripting their way to good games. The guys who got Guy to play back in the days did pretty well.

Making friends with fish to increase your +EV is not poker, it's social engineering.

I don't think anyone doubts Daniels talents for social engineering. He has obviously demonstrated an ability to make friends with celebrities, business people and other valuable contacts who donate in the games he play. However, I think Daniel incorrectly equates that skill with the skill needed to beat the worlds best players on their home turf.

This is the thing though, if he had tweeted that "I can get the biggest fish in the world to play me at 25/50NL.", this thread wouldn't exist, no one would have blinked an eye because it really doesn't have anything to do with poker skill and no one doubts his ability to get a seat at the table. They doubt his ability to sit with the best and win.

LOL

/thread

Obviously this. If he had tweeted that he can beat 25/50 online because his mere presence would soften the games up to the point where it's softer than even your average MSNL game then that wouldn't get nearly as much attention. Clearly the inference was that he could beat the current 25/50nl games. Also, I don't rail 25/50nl much, but I'm guessing the average "fish" it takes for a 25/50nl game to get going is far far stronger than what Daniel can probably get to join.

You will not be able to start a game because the lobby is King of the Hill. When you join a 25/50 table, forhayley and katya_84 will already be sitting there. Once you sit, the other 3 seats will fill from seat scripts/top regs (or in some cases, top regs WITH seat scripts).

If you tell a fish friend to join the table first, you won't be able to get a seat because the scripters will get there first. Therefore, the only way for you to play a fish is to join at more or less the exact same time. Or...

There is a partial exception for zoom. You can start a zoom game with a fish. However, what will happen is, the zoom pool will balloon to like 20+ players with all the top regs 4 tabling and you will play a small % of your hands at the same table as the fish. The best players having 4 entries will mean you'll play a ton of tables with no fish and 5 of the top 10 regs.

In either case, I don't think it will go how you expect it to go.

Why do you tell him this TwoShae? It seems to me that you have an incentive, like all regs at these stakes, to say nothing, let Daniel bet, thinking he's going to play with his fishes a lot in the zoom pool, and then take their money.

Really? Doesn't the average game at those stakes consist of one fish almost exclusively? Do games run if a fish isn't present? If we are talking about average, then those games always have one weaker player in them or they don't run. That's all I'm asking for.