you all are crazy.

Judges are there for a reason, stop making stupid stipulations on top of stipulations about who Dnegs can/cant play against.


Set a stake, agree on judges, agree on >$0, agree on timeframe and get it on.

I totally understand that and accept that. So if for example I sat at a table with two regs along with, say, Guy, at the very same time occasionally, this would be considered cheating? From what you are saying, no matter what, I will always be facing the top regs and I'm aligned with that, but if I invite a bad player to also play in the game, that's not ok? And yes, I mean sitting at precisely the same time to be ahead of the seat scripters? Without seat scripting none of this would even be an issue, but playing exclusively against the top 5 regs isn't something I am willing to wager on.

It most certainly is.

I still agree with your general point tho.

I want to see the bet happen. Terms obviously need to be ironed out and in doing so, Daniel will learn a lot of things he doesn't know about the games (ie, he already learned about seating software). That's inevitable. At the end of the day, the bet will come down to how well he can play poker and we'd all like to see that

Zoom seems like the best way to do this. That way he'd still get to play with fish but he'd also have to make up for the fact that regs keep the ratio around where it typically will be. If more fish join more regs are going to make sure they keep playing/shot-take (and I can't imagine DN would have an edge against even the shot-taking regs).

Also seriously to people who say if live tournament poker is so easy why don't they play it, just do the math on the expenses. Unless you can afford high-rollers/super high-rollers (I doubt even DN is rolled to play those without a backer/selling action) it's pretty much impossible to make a living playing live tournament poker. Even if you ignore the insanely high variance, you're just never going to cover expenses/rake and leave yourself with enough to actually make a living. But it's not uncommon to see small/mid-stakes online guys clearing 100k years, and the roll needed to start playing those is like 5-10k aka less than one buy-in for the live mtts you'd have to play to even close to be able to make a living even if you ignored the variance (which you can't).

All the high stakes seat scripting regs should agree to modify their scripts so that if you start a new table, nobody else can sit unless another non-reg player sits too or a pretedermined amount of time passes to allow time for you to sit with someone you invited. Then the 4 seats are up for grabs by the seat scripters.

isn't that one way you can get a seat in a good live game? By bringing a whale.

i think this is a reasonable concession since you'll be bringing more action to these games. like I posted earrlier, are these games so juicy that you're trying to prevent action from players dn brings?

plus i think you'd have an edge in these games now because they probably don't remember how to play with 2 fish (how they see you) at the table

dnegs should just get a seating script

ZOOM makes it way more fair for both sides. (And probably 50k hands in 90-120 days !!!1!!1!!)

Or no ZOOM so we can get Daniel crushed and ban scripts once and for all.

I was thinking more that the ability to skillfully adapt your play based on reads would be transferable. Obviously it would take time for a live pro to learn to develop accurate reads based on HUD stats, but there's no reason to assume it couldn't be learned. If anything, it seems to me that learning to make good live reads would be more difficult.

All I'm arguing is that an elite player in one almost certainly has what it takes to become elite in the other, assuming enough work.

I don't see what's controversial about this. Out of all the best minds who have devoted themselves to poker do you really believe that not a single one has focused on mastering live tournaments rather than online cash? Do you really think that someone who has put the work in to become elite in tournaments couldn't put the same energy into becoming an elite online cash player, when most of the skills are directly transferable?

I can see the argument if you're talking about an expert in a game like Stud or whatever - sure, it's probably safe to say that someone who only plays Stud, even if he is among the best in the world at it, probably doesn't have what it takes to beat 25/50 6-max online (and quite possibly would be a dog to the top NLH players if they learned Stud and played him at it).

But there's enough money in tournaments that it should attract the top talent.

wow haha after all this time this thread is finally getting somewhere. Did not expect this sort of result at this stage. Mr Negreanu looks ready to bet!

ZOOM seems like a fair solution.

Any solution where Daniel N can somehow magically pick spots to play on his tables is borderline cheating.

If he play and the table fill, that is actually an average 2550 6m lineup on normal tables.

In ZOOM the regs and shootakers should even out the skill level to the normal level based on how many perceived weaker players are in the poll.

Amazing how that works. Negreanu won the WSOP player of the year in 2004 and then and then again in 2013, and a lot of stuff in-between and after (i.e. One Drop 2nd). The reason that MANY players were winners 10 years ago but haven't won anything since, and are now broke, is because variance has been THAT muich better for Negreanu than them the last decade. It's all variance!

Probably doesn't hurt that pokerstars pays for his tourney buyins. Congrats to him though, the face of the biggest online site in the world can still generate massive debate, even though he doesn't even play online.

I was responding to a poster(s) that was quite sure that all of DN's success in live tourneys was the result of variance. Surely if DN wins this bet it will only be because of variance...

And I'm not calling your Shirley.

Let's take a stab at this. Daniel plays what? 50 live tournaments a year?....I don't know maybe he plays 70 or 100 or less, I don't know but it's not a whole lot.

So what's that, maybe 5-10k hands? Not saying he doesn't know what he's doing when it comes to tournaments but.........

How will they already be sitting there?

it's king of the hill, so 2 of the top regs (very likely including one of those two) is already sitting on every table avalible.

variance is so huge in mtts, that no live player can ever achieve a meaningful sample over their lifetime. Unless we talk deep-stack sit'n'goes like shrs, where it might be possible - but with the level of play there edges are razor thin, so variance is going to be huge anyway.

Lol, yeah im sure some "mediocre" nl1k regs will be takong shots

If they're already sitting there, are they forced to play each other?

From here:

Pretty much. The way I see it is, out of the hundred (maybe more) people who are capable of playing tournament poker as well or better than Daniel, since we're talking a minimal few thousand hands some random shmo who has a negligable or nonexistant edge over everyone else is going to be the one winning the variance game. The standard deviation graph stuff for live MTTS would be mindboggling if it existed.

It's always amusing when you hear MTT guys try to justify taking large percentages of themselves in some crazy high buyin lottery like the one drop or whatever, on the basis of there being three or four 'businessmen' or perceived marks in the field, as if they have a huge edge over guys who actually turn out to be pretty serious about their poker and are more likely to play solid or just be a bit nitty than be some total whale.

.

So what we've come to learn is that when DN said he'd beat 25/50nl online with 2 weeks of practice, what he really meant was that he was expecting to leverage his poker status into getting bigger whales than normal to sit (trix up sleeve ftw), and over the course of 1-2 years be able to show a $1 profit above break even. After realizing that tables would snap fill up around him with waiting lists a mile long due to him being the fish in those games he concedes that he's not willing to bet on that. At least we're getting somewhere now.

Pretty sure fwiw that this new stipulation about needing a personally invited fish to be at the table too is just part of the backpeddle. When he played years ago and jumped right into 200/400nl to try to beat it there weren't any fish at those tables, was only him. That's definitely what his bet offer suggested was the case this time too, so this is all more or less a graceful bowout.

U dont understand how fast scripts are. Even if u would be at teh phone wit guy and shout NOW and u try click two seats at teh same table at teh same time 9 out of 10 scripters would be first.
Literally ur only option to play with another fish (besides urself) is to do teh whole thing at zoom...

While I'm sure many of the HS players would welcome a push from DN to bring whales to the tables, this should be a separate project in a different thread as it has very little to do with DN beating HS online.

That 'reasonable concession' is basically making the bet easier (and something else than what it originally was) by DN paying off the HS regs for their mutual benefit.

Also lol at the poor guys getting a "Hi, will you please step into this dark alley so me and a few others can beat you up, please? If I go in alone they'll just punch me instead but this way I can do some punching too! Bring cash!"-invitation from DN. They must feel really special.