Quote:
Originally Posted by Doubleup28
When a beginner plays for a couple weeks and asks a forum whats a good sample size to determine if he a winning player or not, he's always given a number pretty quickly. Whether it be 30k 50k 100k hands.
Yah, because "big blinds won per 100 hands" is a pretty readily understood measurement.
Here's a more accurate way to have that conversation:
"How many hands will it take to determine if I am a winning player?"
"After 30k hands, your actual winrate has a 95% chance of being within 10bb/100 of your theoretical winrate. After 50k hands, your actual winrate has a 95% chance of being within 8bb/100 of your theoretical winrate. After 100k hands, your actual winrate has a 95% chance of being within 5bb/100 of your theoretical winrate."
(I'm just making the above numbers up)
Quote:
However, in determining whether one thinks a possible rig is taking place or its just variance, I get nothing.
Sure, because different people have different meanings of "rig".
Some people think it is because Russians win too much. Some people think it is because Russians win too little. Some people think it is because big stacks always win. Some people think it is because big stacks always lose.
So the first step is to figure out what someone means by "rig", and to define that in a mathematically precise way.
It's much easier with win rate, because everyone talks about it in terms of big blinds per 100 hands (or big bets per 100 hands in limit games).