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The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes
3,508 34.88%
No
5,615 55.84%
Undecided
933 9.28%

07-17-2014 , 05:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doubleup28
When a beginner plays for a couple weeks and asks a forum whats a good sample size to determine if he a winning player or not, he's always given a number pretty quickly. Whether it be 30k 50k 100k hands.
Yah, because "big blinds won per 100 hands" is a pretty readily understood measurement.

Here's a more accurate way to have that conversation:

"How many hands will it take to determine if I am a winning player?"

"After 30k hands, your actual winrate has a 95% chance of being within 10bb/100 of your theoretical winrate. After 50k hands, your actual winrate has a 95% chance of being within 8bb/100 of your theoretical winrate. After 100k hands, your actual winrate has a 95% chance of being within 5bb/100 of your theoretical winrate."

(I'm just making the above numbers up)
Quote:
However, in determining whether one thinks a possible rig is taking place or its just variance, I get nothing.
Sure, because different people have different meanings of "rig".

Some people think it is because Russians win too much. Some people think it is because Russians win too little. Some people think it is because big stacks always win. Some people think it is because big stacks always lose.

So the first step is to figure out what someone means by "rig", and to define that in a mathematically precise way.

It's much easier with win rate, because everyone talks about it in terms of big blinds per 100 hands (or big bets per 100 hands in limit games).
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
07-17-2014 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
some like talking about Breaking Bad (which I have yet to watch).
you didn't miss much. it was the story of a high-school home economics teacher who teams up with a former student and together they build a fast-food chicken empire.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
07-17-2014 , 08:06 PM
kind of sad this was wasted on me.

i was just dealt the same combination of KK in 3 consecutive hands, and the last 2 hands were against the same combination of AA.

and i just cashed out.

Spoiler:
and it's still not rigged.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
07-17-2014 , 08:14 PM
no, of course not. the deal is 100% random at all times. no matter how you play your hand. everyone knows that...um, yup.

Last edited by donk mcReetard; 07-17-2014 at 08:43 PM.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
07-18-2014 , 01:04 AM
Check this out. I am in the midst of another horrific typical poker stars down swing, where the consistency of the run bad is beyond all reality, and when this happens, you are not allowed to win.

Just check out the glorious rig. He stacks of unbelievably and I knew I would lose. Non stop, every time I have a hand, they suck out or have the nuts. Never ever happens so consistently on any other site. The glorious rig.

On poker stars if you have the best hand, actually a dominant hand on the flop or turn, im talking 70-90% you will usually lose by river, so you cannot value bet, because your valuing towning yourself with 80% equity, and even when you shove to protect yourself against the river rig, they still call with nothing and get there. Sickening.


    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #28944841

    BTN: $9.18 (183.6 bb)
    Hero (SB): $5.40 (108 bb)
    BB: $5.53 (110.6 bb)
    UTG: $9.05 (181 bb)
    MP: $5 (100 bb)
    CO: $8.42 (168.4 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 9 9
    UTG folds, MP raises to $0.15, CO folds, BTN calls $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, BB folds, MP calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30

    Flop: ($1.40) 2 2 6 (3 players)
    Hero bets $0.80, MP folds, BTN raises to $1.60, Hero raises to $4.95 and is all-in, BTN calls $3.35

    Turn: ($11.30) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    River: ($11.30) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Spoiler:
    Results: $11.30 pot ($0.47 rake)
    Final Board: 2 2 6 7 Q
    BTN showed T Q and won $10.83 ($5.43 net)
    Hero showed 9 9 and lost (-$5.40 net)
    MP mucked and lost (-$0.45 net)



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 01:11 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    .
    Mirage, you still beating 6nl for 81bb/100?

    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...22/index2.html
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 01:13 AM
    No about 25bb actually. Poker stars zoom is the problem, never see anything like it on other sites.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 01:42 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SandmanNess
    Mirage, you still beating 6nl for 81bb/100?

    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...22/index2.html
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    No about 25bb actually.
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    I will update the thread when I reach $500 which is when I will move upto 10NL (03-11-2013, 05:29 AM)

    So you have been beating NL6 for 25bb/100 for a year and a half and still don`t have the bankroll to play NL10?

    Sounds legit.

    Last edited by 5thStreetHog; 07-18-2014 at 01:59 AM.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 02:02 AM
    I play 10nl on 888. Was trying to also grind a roll on PS zoom for the challenge, but the doom switch is unbeatable in the long run.

    Anyway just installed ps software. Joke of a site. Will continue to make money on other sites, Just finished last session villains hitting sets against me every hand, KK losing to AK, J10, basically anything. bye bye rig. I feel sorry for the poor folks who sit and waste their time on that site getting screwed over thinking they just need to study harder.. lol.

    Last edited by mirage01; 07-18-2014 at 02:21 AM.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 02:41 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    I feel sorry for the poor folks who sit and waste their time on that site getting screwed over thinking they just need to study harder.. lol.
    Yeah, its so sad seeing good players reaping the rewards of their study and hard work making thousands upon thousands of dollars and competing at higher levels.

    Im sure theyd rather be like you crying like a little girl every time they lose a hand blaming everything except their own horrific play and as a result spending years playing poker for pennies and a prayer.

    You are much smarter than those fools obviously.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 03:20 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 5thStreetHog
    Yeah, its so sad seeing good players reaping the rewards of their study and hard work making thousands upon thousands of dollars and competing at higher levels.
    .

    Do they really long term? Where is the proof? on zoom at least I doubt it.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 05:19 AM
    Sorry to come here again but I've got to say I've come to the conclusion zoom is actually rigged. Yes yes, I know you get more hands so should expect more coolers, but there's way more on zoom. I.e. a 3000 hand session of zoom will yield about 4x as many coolers as a 3000 hand session at reg tables.

    It's clearly setup by pokerstars to maximise rake. When pots get big more rake gets taken. Pokerstars wants people to go all in every other hand because this makes more profit for them so they give setups like this.

    For instance, if you've got QQ or KK on the BTN, and you get 3bet by the blinds, whenever you go to stackoff this hand they will have AA. But QQ is supposed to be an easy stackoff in those positions, and definitely KK. At zoom it isn't.

    Then the postflop play is more of the same. Set over set, boat over boat, flush over flush. The only time money ever changes hands at zoom is when you cooler someone or they cooler you.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 05:41 AM
    There are some people who come to this thread with fairly complicated rig theories, that would be difficult for them to prove on their own.

    And then there are these:
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    On poker stars if you have the best hand, actually a dominant hand on the flop or turn, im talking 70-90% you will usually lose by river, so you cannot value bet, because your valuing towning yourself with 80% equity, and even when you shove to protect yourself against the river rig, they still call with nothing and get there. Sickening.
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Royalflush15
    Sorry to come here again but I've got to say I've come to the conclusion zoom is actually rigged. Yes yes, I know you get more hands so should expect more coolers, but there's way more on zoom. I.e. a 3000 hand session of zoom will yield about 4x as many coolers as a 3000 hand session at reg tables.
    Such incredibly simple things to prove, and yet...


    ...no proof.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 05:50 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Royalflush15
    I've come to the conclusion zoom is actually rigged.

    You don't say?

    Yes yes, I know you get more hands so should expect more coolers, but there's way more on zoom. I.e. a 3000 hand session of zoom will yield about 4x as many coolers as a 3000 hand session at reg tables.

    And of course you have mounds of proof to support your keen observation

    It's clearly setup by pokerstars to maximise rake. When pots get big more rake gets taken. Pokerstars wants people to go all in every other hand because this makes more profit for them so they give setups like this.

    This is very unsound reasoning

    For instance, if you've got QQ or KK on the BTN, and you get 3bet by the blinds, whenever you go to stackoff this hand they will have AA. But QQ is supposed to be an easy stackoff in those positions, and definitely KK. At zoom it isn't.

    Can I see the data where your QQ and KK are constantly losing these all ins? Because you of course have data right?...

    Then the postflop play is more of the same. Set over set, boat over boat, flush over flush. The only time money ever changes hands at zoom is when you cooler someone or they cooler you.

    So you admit that you aren't the one always getting coolered? Well that's a start I guess
    .

    Last edited by SandmanNess; 07-18-2014 at 05:53 AM. Reason: In before "prove to me it's not rigged derp derp derp"
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 07:27 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Royalflush15
    ...It's clearly setup by pokerstars to maximise rake. When pots get big more rake gets taken. Pokerstars wants people to go all in every other hand because this makes more profit for them so they give setups like this....
    No, you're wrong. Action hands like what you describe actually reduce rake.

    Here are a couple of my posts from 4½ years ago which explain why this is the case:
    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=14061
    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=14924
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 10:25 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    I play 10nl on 888. Was trying to also grind a roll on PS zoom for the challenge, but the doom switch is unbeatable in the long run.

    Anyway just installed ps software. Joke of a site. Will continue to make money on other sites, Just finished last session villains hitting sets against me every hand, KK losing to AK, J10, basically anything. bye bye rig. I feel sorry for the poor folks who sit and waste their time on that site getting screwed over thinking they just need to study harder.. lol.
    You also said "joke of a site" when you couldn't find the cashier on Party.net (a playmoney site).

    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=16372

    Yet somehow you're able to tell that a site is rigged.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 11:56 AM
    lol sorry, I mean't I uninstalled poker stars. Honestly i think you can beat the rig there if you have the unbelievable discipline to keep folding the second nuts for 50k hands, once the doom switch hits, and eventually grind out a few bb/100. Not interested in that though.

    I just don't accept run bad is balanced out by run good. When I run good I am not continually sucking out when I'm 20% dog, yet that keeps happening during doom switch time.

    If you are just getting coolered I could handle that, but you get coolered plus sucked out horribly, when you actually have a dominant hand so the combination is crushing.

    I can handle having AK on on KKQ flop with villain having KQ, or set over set, but why when all this is happening is my KK losing to AK, J10, anything i'm called with, or almost every 80% hand on turn getting rivered? Its unbelievable.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 12:43 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    lol sorry, I mean't I uninstalled poker stars. Honestly i think you can beat the rig there if you have the unbelievable discipline to keep folding the second nuts for 50k hands, once the doom switch hits, and eventually grind out a few bb/100. Not interested in that though.

    I just don't accept run bad is balanced out by run good. When I run good I am not continually sucking out when I'm 20% dog, yet that keeps happening during doom switch time.

    If you are just getting coolered I could handle that, but you get coolered plus sucked out horribly, when you actually have a dominant hand so the combination is crushing.

    I can handle having AK on on KKQ flop with villain having KQ, or set over set, but why when all this is happening is my KK losing to AK, J10, anything i'm called with, or almost every 80% hand on turn getting rivered? Its unbelievable.
    So, where to go from here?

    Will you start a new worthless whining series for another poker site or will you accept that poker is absolutely no game for you?

    Actually, as every rigtard in here is a chronic liar, i do not believe you uninstalled anything Like a good degen you will keep gambling your pennies away and whine and whine and....
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 01:36 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    lol sorry, I mean't I uninstalled poker stars. Honestly i think you can beat the rig there if you have the unbelievable discipline to keep folding the second nuts for 50k hands, once the doom switch hits, and eventually grind out a few bb/100. Not interested in that though.

    I just don't accept run bad is balanced out by run good. When I run good I am not continually sucking out when I'm 20% dog, yet that keeps happening during doom switch time.

    If you are just getting coolered I could handle that, but you get coolered plus sucked out horribly, when you actually have a dominant hand so the combination is crushing.

    I can handle having AK on on KKQ flop with villain having KQ, or set over set, but why when all this is happening is my KK losing to AK, J10, anything i'm called with, or almost every 80% hand on turn getting rivered? Its unbelievable.
    That's a whole lot of text just to dance around saying you're not good at poker.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-18-2014 , 05:42 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by otatop
    That's a whole lot of text just to dance around saying you're not good at poker.
    and there's about 15k texts like that in this thread.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-19-2014 , 08:59 AM
    i can understand a few of his concerns. we all go through these hardships. the thing is, he may not realize a 'bad beat' is really less bad than it seems due to the nature of hold 'em. look at it this way: pre-flop, it's usually hard to be worse than a 2-to-1 dog because few hands are big favorites over others. when you are, it's usually due to being up against an overpair to two low cards.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-19-2014 , 09:19 AM
    Thing is right, I know I'm good at poker. It's not due to bad play I don't beat zoom, it's because of ridiculous setups.

    Josem - what you spoke about in those threads was a seperate issue. Clearly saying the deck is rigged against one specific person, or is created to help 'fish' isn't correct. But zoom is mostly full of regs - these same regs will wager the mobey again, unlike fish who may bust out until next payday. Thus, big pots in zoom are good for stars - it allows more rake to be taken in a smaller time.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-19-2014 , 06:48 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Josem
    No, you're wrong. Action hands like what you describe actually reduce rake.

    Here are a couple of my posts from 4½ years ago which explain why this is the case:
    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=14061
    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=14924
    Total garbage ACTION hands CREATE rake period.
    Define the actual size a pot need to be to be raked this big pot bust out rubbish.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-19-2014 , 06:54 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Vik_Fisk
    Total garbage ACTION hands CREATE rake period.
    How so?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Vik_Fisk
    Define the actual size a pot need to be to be raked this big pot bust out rubbish.
    This sentence makes no sense.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
    07-19-2014 , 08:31 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mirage01
    lol sorry, I mean't I uninstalled poker stars. Honestly i think you can beat the rig there if you have the unbelievable discipline to keep folding the second nuts for 50k hands, once the doom switch hits, and eventually grind out a few bb/100. Not interested in that though.

    I just don't accept run bad is balanced out by run good. When I run good I am not continually sucking out when I'm 20% dog, yet that keeps happening during doom switch time.

    If you are just getting coolered I could handle that, but you get coolered plus sucked out horribly, when you actually have a dominant hand so the combination is crushing.

    I can handle having AK on on KKQ flop with villain having KQ, or set over set, but why when all this is happening is my KK losing to AK, J10, anything i'm called with, or almost every 80% hand on turn getting rivered? Its unbelievable.
    Your posts are fun to read. They do a good job of showing the silly thought processes and perverse logic of people who lack number sense.

    Regarding bolded above, every time you get it in, and win, as an 80% favourite you don't register that as running good. You simply consider that that is what "should" have happened. So, even if you only ever get it in as an 80% favourite and running @EV you will still feel you are running bad. The following pattern will emerge resulting in an artificial bias in your mind:

    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Lose ("running bad")
    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Lose ("running bad")
    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Win ("normal")
    Lose ("running bad")

    I have played more hands than just about anyone in the world, and I have experienced more bad beats than anyone. Every day I say to myself "this is unbelievable" and it truly feels like that. I'm currently running over 5,000BB below EV in the past three months, and I've had numerous runs like that. I rant about it, and it gets me frustrated, but fortunately though, I have what you don't: a rational, clear-thinking mind that handles numbers and logic well. That allows me to accept that it's all perfectly normal and prevents me from writing complete and utter bollocks about it on a poker forum.
    The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote

          
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