No it isn't. Let's switch to a random walk which I'm sure you can see is just a simple version of the poker version.

Suppose we lose 1 unit if we flip heads and gain 1 unit if we flip tails. We use a fair coin. We are currently x units below expectation (the EV line being 0 all the way along, of course). Are you saying that the probability we get back to 0 in k flips is < 1/2, for all x?

That's obviously false. If x = 1 and k = 3 then the probability we get back to 0 within k flips is 5/8, since it happens if we flip {H, anything, anything}, and {T, H, H}. So the probability that they cross within three steps is 5/8. The probability that they cross within a large number of steps is virtually 1.

It doesn't matter how far we are away, there is nothing special about being one step away. Polya's theorem shows that 0 is recurrent, that is, if we start at 0, then with probability 1 we return to 0 in a finite time. Some of the random walks starting from 0 will land on -x. But we know that all random walks starting at 0 get back to 0 within a finite time by Polya's theorem. Therefore all random walks starting at -x get back to 0 within a finite time by Polya's theorem.

Obviously the difference between the two lines isn't a simple random walk, but it seems 'obvious' that the same result will hold.

*your comment about it being true at infinity but not being true for any finite timeframe is impossible. The result 'at infinity' is defined as the limit of the results of finite timeframes as we increase the timeframe arbitrarily. So it cannot be true that the probability for 'all finite timeframes' is < 1/2 and the probability for 'infinite timeframes' is 1.

Your possible endpoint distribution spreads uniformly in both directions from where you are right now. That should make my point obvious.

This shouldn't really be controversial and proofs have been shown on these forums before. Once you are under EV your mean future result is to remain there. And your chance to end another series on that side is greater than the chance to end crossed over simply because there are more possible endpoint on the side you are already on (for any finite series).

I think you may have just misunderstood the point I was making.

Or they mayby realized that continually claiming rigged deals without any proof is the most stupid thing one can do and now they are at best lurking this thread, cringing about the thought that they once participated with nothing but bold claims while showing total non-information about basic (Poker)-Math

Or the majority of them were worthless trolls anyway and at some point they lost fun posting fake, boring riggie tantrums.

Anyway, thanks for your worthless input, make sure to visit every few days to post more worthless bs.

Lol did you win any nickels at the tables today Astley?

Again and again and again and again i keep geeting out of mtts when almost deep in the money against 1 to 3 outters , i dont understand , so many hundred times in this situation
and the worst hand keeps destroying me in crucial points at mtts in pokerstars.... its disgusting... at least sometimes out of hundreds i should pass with the best hand but i never pass at pokerstars...... but in other rooms that i have about 10% the volume of ps i get good FTs and deep runs at mtts.. this is to weird...and its not the skill level please... hundreds of times against very low dogs and stupid moves

Nickels > pennies


Anyway, forget Stars and get as much time as possible on 888 with your new player boomswitch rig before you get balanced. If you researched "888 is rigged" like I mentioned you would see the opinions of many people is that is exactly what is happening as that is how it is rigged.

Forget any belief about poker skill, it is all about the rig, so be sure to play on rooms where you have the rig in your favor, like you have with 888 for now. That is the only reason you can win there, but once you get balanced find a different room.

You would be naive not to at least consider the opinions of so many riggies who believe this.

All the best.

And I think you misunderstood what I was saying. Or, you understood it and are wrong

I did not say that it was more likely than not that you *end* on the other side. I said that it was certain that *at some point* you cross over, and in fact you will do so an arbitrarily large number of times if you play long enough.

Take the random walk example. Heads wins 1 chip, Tails lose 1 chip. You start at -2 chips and flip 1000 times. It is certainly more likely than not that your end result after 1000 flips will be negative. However, it is very likely that *at some point* before flip 1000 your result will be zero (ie you cross the EV line).

p(score is next 0 after two flips) = p(HH) = 1/4
p(score is next 0 after three flips) = 0
p(score is next 0 after four flips) = p(THHH)+p(HTHH) = 1/8
p(score is next 0 after five flips) = 0
p(score is next 0 after six flips) = p(TTHHHH)+p(THTHHH)+p(HTHTHH)+p(HTTHHH) = 1/8

p(hit 0 within six flips) = p(first hit 0 after 2 flips)+p(first hit 0 after 4 flips)+p(first hit 0 after 6 flips) = 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 1/2

So after only six flips there is a 50% chance that you will 'cross over'. After 1000 flips it is virtually certain that you will 'cross over'. Notwithstanding the fact that the most likely result after 1000 flips is that you will be below EV.

There is no 'balance' as you well know, those people saying 888 are rigged are wrong. I win on 888 because I'm better than most of my opponents - I lose on Stars (at a much lower stake) because of the VIP rig.

I know when I sit on an 888 table I'm +EV, because I can see fish to the left and fish to the right. I can see the same on Stars, however I'm not +EV here because reg 1 and reg 2 sitting to my left both have PlatinumStar status and so will god own everyone on the table.

Pyro is correct here. If (and only if) your EV is exactly 0, then not only are they likely to cross, they are guaranteed to.

Edit: ^ is if comparing to the break-even line. I see the original conversation was comparing to the EV line. But the above still stands (regardless of what your actual EV is).

You cannot have it both ways. Either the sites are rigged and you win and lose due to the variance of the game and your play and skill.

If you want to say that everyone who wins at Stars while you lose is due to a rig, then you have to accept the riggie way of living and accept that your winnings at 888 are only due to a rig that many others believe in as well.

If the platinum VIP 2 NL fish (interesting concept) are winning on Stars due to a rig then the fish are also winning on 888 due to a rig. Congrats on having the rig work for you on 888 until you get balanced, but winning there only proves that you are a donk that needed that help. You lose at 2NL on other sites, so that is the only logical explanation! You need to be more open to the possibilities - stop being so naive. These other 888 is rigged riggies see it with their own eyes after all.

Plenty on 2+2 believe 888 is rigged

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...d-site-518662/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...igged-1317571/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...igged-1422975/

can they all be wrong? Open your eyes!


All the best.

Well,easy solution: Get some money from your imaginary bankroll at 888 over to stars, play there until you are platinum and earn the monies. (at NL2,lol)

Geez, can't believe you did not figure that out by yourself, you are stupid beyond any description...

What happened, now I'm helping these braindead morons to make serious money.

Hope you say thank you some time for this precious advice.

Today I made 10000$ in another tourney, so I'm up 15k now. How much did you say you made at 888?

Good luck at the tables, hope you will beat NL2 some time in the future.

This entire post is like a ****ing textbook example of Poe's Law, along with a few other logical fallacies. Mind boggling.

Here is actually almost 5k of pages where some people are saying that online poker is rigged, lol I have one suggestion for riggies. Try to improve your game, watch videos, have proper BR and dont tilt and you will see that "rig" will disappear.

P.S. thanks for some useful links and posts regarding to understand EV and variance

this thread is almost as entertaining reading as some of the better TRs! subscribed for the giggles!!

Wow... So guess who is launching in New Jersey on October 1st? I feel bad for the people of New Jersey who are gonna think they are getting a fair deal on every hand... I hope they took out the code in the software that rigs and manipulates the hands to create a handicap system before they sold it to Amaya... I really hope they don't come in any other states also... It's not even real poker... It's an online video game involving money and cards and the software manipulates the hands and picks winners based on the accounts of the players in the hand...

The people in New Jersey that play live are gonna hear so much talk about these sites being rigged, because the live players know what random poker is like and they are gonna notice all the rigged patterns and crap on the software...

Perhaps.

We agree on the endpoint result.

We also agree that the chance to cross any value approaches 1 as trials approach infinity.

But the probability to cross zero from a negative start, at some point during a finite series of 1D random steps, is a factor of the starting offset, the step sizes, and the series length. Obviously we can define series where the chance of crossing is zero, as well as series where this chance is under 50%. And since the chance to end somewhere is 1, the other result, not crossing, would be over 50% in those cases (disregarding stops on zero).

In your example with a starting offset of 2 and then 1000 steps taken, obviously the chance to cross is almost 1. What if the starting offset is 1000 and we take 2 steps? Or even 2000 steps? Do you have the formula to calculate the chance of a cross?

Hey veg, meet your ******ed cousin, he's locked up in a padded cell nowadays, could not handle the rigged reality.

Love how he celebrates the 4 rigtard posts in a row.

Just had the sickest beat on pokerstars yet. My full house lost to ****ing quads! TTJA6 board, I had JJ, of course the ****er had TT. More jokerstars bull**** and guess what, this guy was Chromestar so he obviously got the deck stacked in his favour because I'm only bronzestar.

****ing joke of a site.

OMG that's amazing. Now I'm thinking live poker must be rigged too, cause I was playing the other day and I got quad 5s and busted a guy who had a full house!

CLEARLY rigged!

Just out of curiosity. If the guy had his vip status set to hidden would this just be a cooler without rig?

It would still be a rig, just a rig that I wouldn't be able to observe. But the VIP status rig is 100% fact and real, trust me.

This is testable, so trusting you would be stupid.

Post hand histories filtered to known VIP players who are higher VIP than you and we can TEST it.

Every now and then I stop by to see what's new in the world of rigged poker. Nothing. Same damn conversation. Why do I get sucked in to reading you go back and forth with the same damn dribble. WHY are you riggies still playing poker??? WHY are the non riggies spending so much time arguing their point??? I can't fathom it. I will say this. Over a half million hands over 3 different sites lifetime. On all 3 sites I'm massively under EV. But I'm still winning at a nice rate. So while I do have an inner riggie in me, I just don't care because I'm a good winner. And neither of y'all will ever prove anything!

A rig won't be able to be detected by statistics. Pokerstars aren't stupid, they won't make it so database filters on pokertracker can catch them out. The only way to detect this rig is observation at the tables.