When the gas cards start?

....sigh...

Absolutely, positively, incorrect. Using your example above, if you're a 65/35 fav. when all the money goes in, you win 65% of the pot over the long mathimatical term. You win 65% of the pot regardless of running it once or twice. Running it twice doesnt change the % WHAT SO EVER. Ill say it again, running it twice dosnt change the % of your pot equity WHAT SO EVER. When you get all in as a 65% fav, over your lifetime if you play long enough you will win 65% of the pot in that situation. No more, no less, regardless of home manytimes you run.
Absolutely incorrect. It only gives the appearance of decreasing varience because of the observed length of time from the players perspective. It doesnt change the math. It doesnt change the math. It doesnst change the math. Again....it DOESNT CHANGE THE mother ****ing MATH. Lol!
Absolutely Correct. Thats all run it twice does, increases the sample size. Instead of being all in for 65/35 for one hand, its like doing it for 2 hands.

If running it twice lowered your varience, than how come the best players in the world in the biggest games/highest stakes on the planet dont run it twice 100% of the time? Do you think its because some professional poker players prefer having higher varience? Lol! Its because in the long run, it doesnt mater.

i appreciate the good hearted nature, but i think you're confusing variance with ev. when you have 65% equity and you play a hand, you don't get 65 percent of the pot. you get all of it or none of it. over the long run you'll win 65% of the pots. the math doesn't change, but those ups and downs of winning whole pots or losing whole pots is the variance. running it twice reduces the variance since it gives you a bigger sample size (than 1).

i think...

Ok this is my last post about running it twice. Also, let me throw in a wrench. Running it twice INCREASES your variance. When you run it once you either win the pot or lose the pot. Run it twice and alot of times you split the pot with your villain and guess what?...you just lost money because the casino takes its own cut of EVERY pot. So when you run it twice and chop, its like the hand never happened and you LOST money. Bye-bye winrate. This makes your swings even worse. lol!

Anyways, if you guys are thinking reaching the "long term" of mathimatical probabilities evening out in terms of time, than yes running it twice reduces your "variance." Your $$ swings will even out "faster."

But...to get nerdy (and douchey, lol) Variance is a measurement of how far a set of numbers is spread out, as far as statistics and the theory of probabilities. It is one of several descriptions of a probability distribution, describing how far the numbers lie from the mean (expected value or EV). Length of time is of no concern and of no consquence in this respect.

When you roll a six-sided die, it can be modelled with a discrete random variable with outcomes of 1 through 6, each with equal probability every time you roll. The expected value is (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/6 = 3.5. It doesnt matter how many times a night you roll the die. 2 or 200...this never changes

Anyhoo. Who is excited about felting some GOP's? Heard theres alot of celebs coming. Kid Rocks coming. Hope he comes in and plays some poker. That would be awesome playing some poker and doing some shots of Jack with Kid Rock. Lol! Not a huge fan of is stuff but that guys cool as ****.

I humbly suggest we stop the running it twice discussion in this thread as it has nothing to do with the THR.

There are many, many detailed threads on this topic in the Poker Theory forum that lays it all out. Over there you can find out the definitive answer to the "does it change EV or variance or both or none"! All we are doing here is repeating that old conversation in a thread that is not for that purpose.

It's a fine discussion to have, but it's just clogging up the THR thread with non-THR stuff.

Yes, technically the variance is the same, but your swings are smaller because you're effectively playing smaller pots for smaller stacks and just playing more of them. You're being an extreme semantic nit here though.

Or to put it another way, yes, your variance in the sense of the math of how many "runs" it takes to even out.

But your variance in the sense of how much your bankroll goes up and down is lower.

It makes the variance in the first sense happen twice as fast (or more) and at half the risk (or less).

and the next 2 posts--variance. I also wouldn't mind the derail to end.

ya, you can't even run it twice at hard rock so why even discuss it and if we could, I feel there should be a minimum of 200bbs in the pot. These shortstackers at omaha want to run it twice. F U

One cannot felt "GOP's". It's a political party. Just sayin'.

Going up to play some 2/5 now

The GOP is a politcal party, the GOP's are the people that make up that political party. One CAN felt the GOP's. Just sayin.

Mikey - if you're just going to quote Wikipedia and sound like its your own words, at least use it to correctly argue a point. Lol at everything you said regarding variance. Some people really like to try and sound smart, while accomplishing the exact opposite in the process. My last word, gl

60 posts gone wild

I like the derail. Side conversation to what's actually going on...

I you infering that I plagerized from wiki to impress unknown people on the internet? Lmao

Eddie, this might be shocking to a person like you, but some people actually research, read, and remember things before just blurting out the first thought that pops into their caveman skulls. Im not trying to sound smart, i was trying to find another way and angle of explaining higher level concepts to an stubborn egomaniac like yourself.

And after checking Wikipedia you STILL think you are correct! Jesus ****ing christ!! When you have all the facts presented before you...!? Some people just blow my mind with their egos. I swear to god, with my 3+ decades on this planet, I have NEVER heard a person say. "You know something, I was wrong." NEVER....not ****ing once.

P.S. This derail is awesome. Lol!

Wikipedia - "variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. It is one of several descriptors of a probability distribution, describing how far the numbers lie from the mean (expected value).....For example, a perfect six-sided die, when thrown, has expected value of
1/6(1+2+3+4+5+6 = 3.5"

That's exactly what I'm inferring to...or was it just a coincidence you quoted it even with the same parentheses ? Lol at the internet and the trolls it brings out.

But at least over in Poker Theory you'll actually get the correct answer.

Good God. GOP stands for "Grand Old Party". It is a nickname for the Republican Party. The individuals who collectively make up the Republican Party are not themselves "Grand Old Parties". They are people. This really is not that confusing.

So i was at a 1/2 NLHM today and it was the turn 3 people me in position

player A bets 5 dollars
player B raise 10 dollars
player C (me) asks the dealer, the minimum re-raise is 15, right? she just said no. I asked "its the difference of the raise (5) plus the bet amount (10) isn't it? she just simply said no in a real moody way. I thought my min re-raise is standard isn't it? Or is this some ******ed hard rock bull**** rule like their 100 dollar buy in for 1/2. I just tossed 20 because I really didn't feel like arguing with the dealer or slowing down play.

Online, my reraise holds true but apparently according to this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...-raise-586676/ some brick and mortar places make it double?


in b4 herp derp bad player, shouldn't min re-raise anyways.

If the 1st guy bet $5 and the second guy made it a total of $10 then if you wanted to min raise its a total of $15. Alot of dealers at HR do not understand this, I have seen it dozens of times. They think that just because someone bets $20 and the raise has to be double that its double the last total bet for raises too. lol

Just explain that you are raising the amount of last raise and then they sometimes understand. lol

so basically you're telling me the guy handling my money doesn't understand the rules?

...



:l



edit: don't they go to a school to learn how to deal and the rules of the games and stuff?

and would there be anything i could do about this i.e call the floor/supervisor/etc?

Most of the dealers there understand and get that correct. You may have gotten a new one or one having a brain cramp. I'm surprised no one else at the table spoke up to confirm your reasoning. Usually if that happens the dealers go along with it.

Ya it's unreal how a lot of these dealers start as cashiers in the poker room or brushes and still don't know the basic rules

I thought they had to go to Dealer School prior to being hired. I know I dated a dealer at the Seminole Casino in Immokalee for awhile, and they all had to show a certificate from a paid dealer school prior to dealing.