There was a good article in Card Player a few years ago about running it twice, I'll try to link to it later as I can't find it at the moment.

The article generally favors running it twice as a strategy as you reduce risk with no loss of expectation (the math is the same), more or less along the lines with what PokerXanadu has already stated ITT.

The article does however mention that there is a scenario where it may be better to not run it twice. This scenario would be against a very aggressive player who is making frequent semi bluffs in order to try to get you to fold out the best hand. When you call him he is always going to try to get you to run it twice so as to keep his swings as low as possible which in turn allows him to continue to attempt to steal pots.

By not agreeing to run it twice you are going to force him to make tougher decisions if he is not successful in getting you to fold better hands because he is now making bigger gambles and this may cause him to be less inclined to try to make moves against you.

Yeah, that's it exactly. What I was trying to express, and this puts it into words very well.

Good point. Interestingly, I've seen just the opposite at some of the tables - players who push all in on the semi-bluff (usually a flush draw), and then refuse to run it twice when you call. I think they are operating on the premise that if they refuse to run it twice, their semi-bluffs are more likely to work in the future.

BBJ at 470k...
A hand from today.. 2/5, new table, guy opens to 25 MP, he starts hand with 500. I am 2 to his left, on button I believe, and I make it 80 with AA, I have my initial 600. He calls. Flop is QJ10, with 2 clubs. I have A of clubs. He checks. I check. Turn is 2 offsuit. He pretty quickly leads for 200 and stares at me, I always look at the cards but I gave him a glance and he is staring at me. Thoughts on his range in this spot, namely the overbet? No reads cause literally 3rd hand at table, and I had no history with him. He is white, late 50s. Just wondering...

He probably has AK for straight or a set. When they stare at you they have a big hand unless he is the type to do reverse tells.

I agree. Especially if he's in his late 50's

This is the flip side of my point and is another good reason not to run it twice. Regarding the question of running it twice, applying maximum pressure on my opponent is more a matter of psychology than math.
The day I play my hand differently than how I'd like because of variance is the day I realize I don't have the proper bankroll for the game I'm playing.

very good read parisron...

Provolone,

He has at least a set here 1,000% of the time. Never overthink a big bet at 2/5 (not in a Florida cardroom, anyway) against any random player.

I totally agree with your flop check. I'm usually all for betting every street with AA heads up in position, but there's only a tiny chance he's got 88 or 99 (he mucks AQ to the 3-bet, if he even raises with it in the first place), and that's all you beat. It's a set or broadway.

Hope you mucked it!

I'm sure AA is beat, but I also don't think he mucks AQ to a 3 bet for $80. People call 3 bets super wide. On my way to hopefully play some plo.

Thinking about relocating to FL to Miami, West Palm Beach, Daytona, Fort Lauderdale, or Jax - does anyone know which of these cities has the best PLO cash offerings? Looking to play medium - high stakes (ie average stack $1k-$2k) where the game gets off at least a couple days/week

yeh in hindsight this is a pretty trivial fold and I have to agree with the logic, and thank you for the replies. The overbet threw me off, I felt like he would bet less with a set, and certainly a straight. I also took his staring as not a sign of strength. Yeh I had to reload after that one.

Naw, these old people love to overbet their big hands so they can "punish" you for drawing. No need to overthink vs most older players. They're going to play their hands face up.

I'm not sure which city has the best PLO, but in Tampa the best PLO is at Lucky's card room in a run down dogtrack about 15 minutes from THR. There's usually at least 2 tables running and the stacks are around $1-2k.

Re: the Lucky's games, is it most always $1/$2/$5? I've heard so much about those games for so long, it's about time I check it out. Starts up around noonish?

The Luckys PLO games are insannnnne

No shufflers at Lucky's.

Yep, the PLO games are $1/$2 with a mandatory $5 straddle on the button. Starts up at around 12-1 id say and is usually running all day and most of the night. Like AlexM said there is no Shuffler, but it's worth it for the action imo.

Derby is another place for a juicy 1-2 PLO game. Usually see John Racenar and his manager playing with regs and a few fish whenever i'm over there. But like Lucky's they don't have card shuffler's either.

Derby has some shufflers, just not for all tables.

I only play tournaments there and they always have us on the tables without shufflers. Surprised ive never seen the shufflers there.

Yeah, they don't use them in tourneys at all.

Seminoles adding roulette, craps

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/entertai...tory?track=rss

"Roulette and sic bo were set to open Wednesday at Seminole Casino Coconut Creek, which will add craps sometime next week. Both games, which are usually connected at the same station, will debut next week at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, and then at the Tampa Hard Rock, Seminole Classic in Hollywood (in early September) and, finally, in Immokalee."


It will be nice to play some "No 4's" on the craps table. lol

99% of the table games bore me to tears (except The Unlimited Holdem of course) but Craps is soooo much fun sometimes. Especially when someone gets some hot dice baby! Gonna be awesome.

Whats the prediction on the poker action next week with the 50,000+ GOP's flooding Tampa?

Lots of industries are gearing up for business I hear....

http://www.theonion.com/video/tampa-...lood-of,29263/

Lmao!

Running it twice does not lower variance. The expected value and variation doesnt change; running it twice just decreases the amount of time for the mathimatical odds to eventually even itself out.

For a simple example:

If you are running mathimatically way under your expected winrate for say 4 months (or like me...****ing years), and you have been running it once on your all ins during that time. If during that run of cards, instead, you ran it twice on your all ins you may have shortened that bad run of luck to say 2 months. Keep in mind this is a very laymen terms example.

Poker is a game of luck AND skill. In the short term, luck is king; in the long term, skill is king. Eventually the laws of math dictate that the better players will evetually win in the "long run." Running it twice shortens the amount of time to reach the "long run"....however long it may be for each person. lol.

Ummm... running it twice definitely lowers your variance. Imagine if you ran 10 hands for $100K each all in preflop where you are a 65-35. Then imagine you ran 1,000 hands all for $1,000 all in preflop where you are a 65-35 favorite. You've wagered the same amount of money, at the same amount of ev - yet the swings will be much less harsh when only flipping for $1k/hand over a 1k sample size. Obviously you will experience less variance in the 2nd situation....which basically illustrates what running it twice does - It adds to the sample size, while decreasing the value of each all in situation, thereby decreasing variance.