205 eff, villain is youngish white guy who seems competent-ish and mildly aggro. He has around 500. I haven't been at table too long but have raised pre/cbet a couple times and I've also raised limpers pretty big without calls.

the world limps to my button, I make it 20 with JJ, v 3b to 65 from bb, folds to me and I think for a beat and flat.

Flop QxT8cc, he bets 75 in a normal amount of time. I have 139 remaining. He's on KK+ with a nonzero amount of AK, I treated it as a shove that I was getting 2-1 on and got it in, seem ok?

In this stove he has 3 "bluff" combos of AKs out of 16 total hands, so 19% frequency of 3betting AKs or AKo and actually betting flop. Good or bad estimate?



Edit: fixed image

I would lead here, because it's 3-handed and if it checks through and an overcard drops off that's going to make your life pretty difficult.

Sounds pretty much on the money.

Ok I agree, we lead for $45, reg raises to $125.
The problem with leading is he can raise Ax as well as worse PPs. but from this point we still need to dump it.. ?

Ok let's break down V's range.

If he's a competent TAG, then he's very unlikely to have flopped the noodles, because he called a huge preflop raise -- unless the fish is really deep. So we can assume he's raising A2-A8s, sets, 65s, 54s, 76s.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

332,640 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 23:5:

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
99	53.75%	175,581	6,450
22-66, Ax2x-Ax8x, 5x4x, 6x5x, 7x6x	46.25%	150,609	6,450

Even if we include 2p combos and the nuts you're still flipping, because you have so much equity vs his gutters.

So you don't really have to fold here. I would call, and probably check/call bricks.

9 combos of kj vs 4 combos of 33/66. Even if you include jj we are still 9 ag 7. Looks like easy call. Also I am betting bigger on each street.

I love this board and I'm bombing all 3 streets and feeling really good about it. Two opponents are going to flop a hand that beats you rarely, and most of the time they're just going to end up flopping nothing.

Villain (BB): On my direct left. Just sat down with $200. Mid-20s with a neck-beard and hoodie. No other info.

Hero has about ~$125 after losing a few pots in the last half hour. Villain wasn't there to see any of them.

Preflop: Hero picks up AJo in SB. Folds to HJ who raises to $6. CO calls. 1 fold. Hero calls. Villain calls.

I decided just to flat call here because I know the HJ is playing a pretty tight range pre-flop and I don't think I'm going to get calls from much worse. He limp/called a bet of mine with earlier with AJ.

Flop:Jc8c8x
Hero leads for $15. BB calls. 2 folds.

I thought leading here was right because I would get called by straight/flush draws and 99 or TT.

Turn: 9x
Hero leads for $15. BB calls.

Still value betting. Thought flush draws would still be calling and some straight draws picked up an under pair that still might be calling.

River: 4x
Hero checks. BB bets $45.

I plan was to check/call blank rivers as I don't think I was getting called by anything worse. Once he bet the $45, I started second-guessing myself. Almost universally, 1/2 players aren't betting their missed draws here as a bluff in my experience. This guy might be capable of it and I can't think of a value hand he would have here other than an 8 that he was slow playing. Is this an easy call? Criticism of all streets appreciated.

Fold your AJ preflop. There are 3 advantages you can have in a hand, skill, cards, and position. You only have a chance at one of those. Since you saw HJ limp with AJ, what's his raising range? It's hands that dominate you or hands that you give reverse implied odds to postflop (AQ+, pairs). You're not missing out on much at all by folding this "trouble hand" preflop.

In general, check/calling in LLSNL on the river is a suboptimal line, because your typical player doesn't value bet thin enough or bluff enough. This guy may not be a typical player, though, given his age/appearance. Did you have the A of clubs? If you didn't, that opens up many bluff combos for villain (AcXc). If you did, his range is more value oriented. In this hand, we're getting a little under 3 to 1 pot odds ($45 into $129 = 43:15), so we need to be good ~26% of the time. It's tough to put villain on trips given he flatted two bets, including a particularly small turn bet. I'd probably lean towards calling without the A of clubs, and folding with it.

I played with this guy yesterday who got me thinking about his play. He would build pots up and then bomb the river. People just kept folding to him. I guess he was a typical LAG, but no one was adjusting. He would even show his cards every time he bluffed. He ran his stack up +$500 in a few hours just running over the table like this. He'd built a pot and then make people fold.

I play a TAG game, but the profit potential to this style just seemed through the roof. It seems higher variance, but hugely profitable. There was a lot of scared money at the table and no one was playing back at him. One competent reg even folded trips to him when he raised the river large. Can big river bets really be this positive EV or was this just a dream table for a LAG?

I'm just curious if any 2+2ers ever play this style when the conditions are right......just building a pot and then bombing the river.

Mdl 1/2. V is Jerry Yang. Not really, but he's been tanking and wearing a hat and sunglasses, and could probably raise to wan million if possible. He's got about 750.

I've got about 400, mostly from KK > QQ aipf for 75bb eff. I should be aggro-ish.

H open TT to 10 hj, co calls, v calls from sb, bb folds.

Flop AxT2cc, h cbet 18 into 32, co folds, v calls.

Turn 9x, v checks, h bets 42 into 68, v calls.

River 6x, v checks, h bets 99 into 152

Any different sizing anywhere? If he calls 2/3 pot on river 75% of the time and full pot 50% it's about the same.

I would shade the turn higher, I think. 48-54.

Sizing needs to be bigger everywhere from the flop onwards.

$200NL
Hero on button 100BB effective w A7o facing two mid position limpers who's VPIPs are roughly 60% and 40% respectively. I would say that 40% of the time they both fold (to raise), 30% 1 calls, 30% both call and nothing too crazy from either one post flop.
I was thinking that A7o was right on the edge of when to ISO/steal, thoughts??

$200NL
Hero in MP Raises to $11 w Kc8c (momentary lapse of judgement, had been folding for 1.5 hrs and this hand looked like AA for a minute) which lead to an ackward spot

5 way pot $60 or so
Flop Ks Ts 5h Checks through
Turn Jc, Hero bets $26 and gets 1 Caller
River 8d Hero Bets $45
Caller tanks and raises to $100 (Pot $200 -$55 to call)

Read- this dude's an old crumbly bastard and a pretty big nit. The hollywood act makes me almost instant fold, then I start to think about whether he is legitimately confused about whether to raise w an AK,KQ,JT type hand and that we're getting almost 4:1...

Should I just be going w my first instinct and finding a fold here against a rock despite a the above arguments for a call?

I would say that your handle on their postflop game is important here (you have to know how frequently you are taking it down with a cbet as well as whether you can bet an Ace for value), but otb I would err on the side of bumping it up for a raise.

+1, make it $12 and barrel the right board textures (assuming neither of these guys are too stationy post flop)

Major mental game leak. 1.5 hrs of card dead is nothing

Depends on villains in hand but too many weaker hands calling in a big pot not to barrel this flop imo. I'd bet $40-45 and see what our position is going into the turn... Then depending on position/villains/turn card, either check or barrel again.


Not a great card for you. If you're going to bet, bet bigger, but this is why I advocate betting flop and checking back on cards like this.

Easy fold vs nit who wants you to call. Depends on more reads, but I think the river bet is questionable... you only beat KQ/JT and the times he's not 3-betting AK.

Raising preflop should lead to as few hard-to-navigate spots as possible. If you're not going to be able to isolate the action to <2 players, and know where you're at postflop, you should not raise.

I would probably raise here if I have a decent handle on the field, not because of card-deadness, but because I think I can handread well enough to play K8s postflop profitably. I'd make it significantly bigger though, at least $18 at a loose table.

I would fire $35 here. You get called by spades, QJ, the odd stubborn AT/JJ, very occasionally by worse Khxh.

Actually not a bad line. You can now get called by one-liners to a straight, pair+SD, spades, and virtually all pairs thinking that you're full of $hit after you check back flop. I still would fire flop, but basically this is a 1-street hand unless you improve.

You will never be wrong vs a nit's range folding here. Even if he momentarily expands the bottom of his range such as that he has worse here, it's not happening often enough for a call to be correct.

If you folded, you played this hand fine on every street but pre imo.

^^Thanks Alec, some great insight imo and much appreciated

2/5 -- $15 button straddle by a thinking TAG, one limpy/foldy player calls 15, I have AK in MP and raise to $65. Hero is viewed is one of the tightest but most aggressive players at the table, which is playing very wild. $775 stack.

Villain (30s, thinking LAG-ish player. I normally consider him fairly competent, but tonight he is on his third buy-in and seems to be steaming. He's been shown TPTK-ish hands a few times tonight in big pots, said "it's good" and mucked his cards. I stacked him earlier when I turned the second nut straight in a 5-way pot and he called my river shove From prior sessions, I know he's capable of complete bluffs and big semi-bluffs, as well as calling a raise with a relatively wide range in this spot.) calls in HJ with ~$500 behind.

I screwed up his stack size in my thinking about the hand -- he had mostly greens and only around $75 in reds, and I thought he was closer to $350-400 deep than $500, which confused me a little.

Flop: A65

I lead flop for $100, thinking he has weaker aces and a fair amount of draws in his range. V tanks for a minute and re-raises to $200 even. I think this is reasonably likely to be a AX, maybe 78 or 79, 89, maybe 2 random s, a set, 65, or AJ(s?)-AK, and I tank-call, thinking he is likely to shove turn with most of his range, and I want to keep his complete airballs in in case he's as tilty as I think he is right now.

Turn: 7

I check, expecting him to shove. None of the draws came in, so I feel pretty good about this turn card. He moves in for $258 more, which was a small shock to me because I didn't think he had that much left. I call.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

Just read this entire thread over the past 2 weeks. mtagliaf, gobledgeek, aleksei, and others, you guys must have an idea about what you make/hour at various levels. Really curious about this, and what you think is the max amount that can be made.

2/5nl. Hero BB $500. Villain just sat down, MAWG, everybody seems to know him, $350. 4 imps to villain in SB, who raises $40. That's a huge raise in this game, where pfr is typically $20-25. I have 66 in BB, and decided to minraise him, figuring he might be trying to steal. He calls and then immediately checks dark.

Flop comes down AQx, two spades.

I THINK he wants to check it down, which is fine by me. Wondering if I should have shoved though?

Checking dark, wtf is that all about?

Fold pre, min raise there is terrible

No kidding, just wanted to make sure I wasn't too eager to slink away in embarrassment. Both the bet and the check dark were signs of weakness I guess? Although with his stack he probably can't fold anyway