I don't think villain shows up with KK here. I'm kind of keened into his bet sizing and believe that with QQ+ he's not making it $10 pre. Also l/c and x/c flop was not specifically planned for him PF. It just so happened he was the one that raised and had initiative








I cannot confirm nor deny whether he respects hero's game or not. We haven't budded heads HU too much and most of the time hero have had position on villain as oppose to being OOP. Combo draw does make sense and w/o knowing it he's maximizing his FE here?[/



AP, hero folded. One thing that I'd also like some input on is physical tell. Hero checks turn and better takes about 8-10 seconds and slides $120 in and keeps his poker face on. He doesn't look at hero and from what I've read on tells this means he wants a call? A few seconds later, one of his buddies comes over and they start to chat about the ball game that's on and villain appeared to be forcing out a laugh and try to look relaxed... again, looking away/not looking at hero. Anything here tell you guys something about calling/fold?

thanks for the input.

I pretty much don't put any stocks in the tells part. Maybe he's nervous cuz he's afraid you're gonna call and suck out. Maybe he has a set and is nervous you just made your OESD.

GcluelesstellsnoobG

Regarding limp/reraising here, obviously it's something you have to be very careful about and is very table dependent. If the table is very loose or raiser could often have a huge hand with this sizing, this would be suicide so just play it the way you did. But if the table is more nitty and raisers hand is face up as mediocre and we've got a tight image, then it's an option at least.

GlimpreraiserG

Table was tight/nitty and hero's image was tight as well. In a loose/raise heavy table I don't limp/call this hand pre, just a fold.

Like I mentioned in the original post, there were no villain's at the table that posed a real threat to hero l/c this hand pre.

What do you guys think about opening up your range at tables like this by l/c (and maybe l/r once or twice to not have villain's raise light with the fear that hero is capable of l/r pre) pre from ep and raising with more mid-bottom portion of our range MP?
too spewy?

limp-call from EP is fit-or-fold poker, not interested. Even the few times we hit, we don't win as much when out of position. Just stay tight from EP.

I don't like the l/c line with a hand as good as your's. But I like your plan for the hand after the flop. I would have raised pre to 15 just to keep the initiative going into the flop. A raise to 15 keeps all lower flushes in play and won't fold out a hand like Qh9h type hands
If l/c pre I like a donk lead on this flop and the plan should be bet/f for the most part
As played, his turn bet is strong. His range is JT , set of 9s, AcXc or two pair. He might show up with a hand as weak as AJo here which you have little equity against anyhow Let this one go

MP is a fish. Playing almost all of his hands. Random pf spazz raises. Sizing tells. I would guess he cannot make big laydowns.

Table has been playing weird, random river c/r bluffs and other stuff that has been getting called off.

$2/5 7 handed

EMP limper, MP ($400ish), limps, button limps, SB calls, hero (covers)checks A6 in BB

(~$25) Flop: 44K

Hero bets $15, folded to MP who calls, rest fold

*Before MP calls he does a Hollywood, says something that makes me believe almost for sure he has a 4.

(~$55) Turn: J

Hero bets $25 (as a blocker), MP calls

(~$105) River: 5

Hero checks, MP bets $60, Hero tank shoves for $300 more.

thoughts?

if you think he has a 4, why would you think he wont raise your "blocker bet"

Why are you leading out otf with A high into 3 people five handed?

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What's the top of villains range that will call here?

If he has a 4 I would think he raises most of the high kicker ones on the turn...no? So is he calling a shove with KJ or a lower flush?
In general when the board is paired and hero takes a bet bet line and villain calls and calls, then river is a bet/fold.

Best way to protect your set vs. 5 opponents:
1/2 N/L
I have only been at the table 2 orbits, however, I know the majority of the players.
1 has ~$650; 1 has ~$450 & 1 has ~$500, 1 has ~$350 & 1 has ~$250

A loose player straddles for $6, gets 1 caller & I raise to $30 with KK & get 5 callers. Quite a surprise!

I am UTG+2. UTG+4 $650/HJ$450/CO$350/Button $500 call, as does the straddler, $250. Limper folds.

$189 in the pot - $7 rake & BBJ - $2 tip to dealer if I win, leaves $180 I can stack in front of me if I win the pot.

$180 6 players AK6

I have $285 left. Straddler checks. What's the best way to protect my set with 4 left to act, against someone having a flush draw? I don't think anyone with A8+ in is folding here, if it's the right person.

I decided that the best way was to try & get it HU & bet $160. That leaves me with ~$125. If the flush draw is the sensible player in early position with $650, he may call hoping for additional action behind him.

If I only get a call from a flush draw, he's not getting the right price, going into the turn, because of the small amount of money I have behind relative to the price he's paying.

Even if he has a gutshot with QJ he is just barely getting an overlay on calling the $160 because he only has 33% equity & putting in ~26% of the money in the pot.

He'd be paying $160 to win the $180 in the pot, my $160 bet & my $125 behind.

If he calls & makes his flush and/or gutshot ott HU, & puts me all in, I'd be calling $125, making the pot $750 & my $125 would rep 16.7% of the money in the pot, with a ~28% chance of catchin' a boat otr.

The only downside, that I see, is that if I do get it HU vs. a flush draw & he misses ott, I can't overcharge him to see the river card, as I only have $125 left & there is $500 in the pot. His $125 reps 16.7% of the money in the pot & he has a 23% equity going into the river.

Should I have just shoved? Would you expect your typical 'kinda' loose' post-flop player calling $285 otf with a flush & gutshot draw?

KK hand #2: 1/2 NL

Are you ever folding KK here?

I am in EP & open for $15 with KK

MP & SB [LAG] are the only callers.

Flop: $43 [raked] JJ8

SB checks. I bet $20, MP fold, SB calls.

Turn: $71 [raked again] JJ8T

SB checks. I bet $20 again. SB raises to $50. I call.

River: $171 JJ8T2

SB immediately pushes out a stack of red $100.00

Hero?

I have shown weakness in the way I played this. I bet the same amount ott as I did otf. I reluctantly called his raise ott. However, V's raise ott is small, as if he's praying for a call to get value out of his hand. Trips?

But if he's shootin' for value, why bet $100 otr? And to act strong in the way he does it, which is often a sign of weakness. A purposeful reverse tell? Player is a LAG & not that great a player. Builds his stack by steppin' on people. I can't fold.

If the table is snapping off x/r river bluffs why are we bluffing on the flop at all?

Turn bet is not good unless he's gonna bomb and price us out, he's never folding any pair.

River looks good though. Sounds like he can have all 4x so shoving has got to be +EV.

44

I didn't think button or SB had anything. I think betting any two cards will show a profit.

I don´t expect to get raised OTT unless maybe I bet very small. He wasn´t a MUBSY ''scared of the BD draws'' type, and I'm pretty sure he will continue his slowplay against me. I thought I had a better chance of getting his stack when I bet vs c/c, even though if I check he might check back or bet tiny.

There is something very wrong with your poker thinking if your main focus is on ''protecting against a FD'' here. We have middle set in a 6 way pot with an SPR of 1.5. Our equity against the field is HUGE (75%?). We want to build a pot and not scare off Ax,Kx,6x,JT,QJ since they are all drawing close to dead. Opponents are going to be holding each others outs here a lot. A hand like JT is likely to be drawing to only 2 or 3 live outs.

Flush draws are never folding here (I would be interested to know what the odds are of someone having a FD here. 30%?). Against a flush draw, ideally we build the pot up so we have 1/3PSB left OTT and are priced in to call. Value against the field is the overwhelming factor though.

Without more info I probably bet 1/2pot.

I'm either bet/folding $35 OTT, or checking back and evaluating OTR. Against a lot of players our turn bet is not going to be for value, and if we know how they play we can often fold to their river value bets and call off their bluffs, in an ideal world anyway.

I like small inducing bets against aggressive players who like to bluff/semi bluff raise, but this is not the board I would be messing around with. If this was your plan, then this river is a snap call. But given your comments about his sizing I'm lost, quite frankly.

I guess I articulated my concern poorly. Or maybe you're spot on & I need to re-think how I approach this type situation.

I'll try & give a simple hypothetical:

There is $100 in the pot, I've got top set & I'm HU against a guy who shows me his nut flush draw b4 I bet.

There is no way he can catch a higher set or runner, runner str8, because I have AA, he has K2 and the board is:

A78

He is a 4.62:1 dog to make his flush ott.
So, don't I want to ensure that his call is -Ev long-term, even if he makes his flush ott?

I can do this if the stack sizes are the right size.

Otf, I bet $50 giving him 3:1 on his money, plus what I have behind. The problem for him is: I don't have enough behind for him to realize a return greater than 4.62:1 on his $50 call.

Being short stacked, I would bet the smallest amount possible, that would not allow him to realize a long-term profit due to size of my remaining stack.

This is what I felt the situation was in this hand. I did not have enough money to give a flush draw the wrong price to draw on both the flop & the turn.

Maybe I bet too much otf, but I wanted to have the right stack left behind, so that if the flush comes on the turn, what I put in the pot ott to see the river card, is less than my odds of boatin' up otr.

That means that I would need to realize a return greater than 3.4x what I put in the pot ott & I would have $125 left. So, the pot would have to be at least $425.00 just to break even on the call vs. a flush ott.

Say I only bet 1/2 pot otr, that's $90.00 & get 2 callers, so now there's $450 in the pot. I'm gettin' the right price to try & catch a boat otr if the flush comes ott, but that's only if NOBODY has a K, A or 6.

Like you said: People should have some of each others outs, which means somebody is going to have some of my outs!

I do now see your line of thinking. However, I get the 'right price' to try & boat up otr, only if I have all 10 outs going into the river AND I get two callers otf.

What am I missing here?

if you can't force a calling mistake on both flop and turn, then maximize the size of the mistake on the flop. Bet the largest amount he will call.

So even if you end up losing this hand, you got your opponent to make the biggest mistake possible on the flop.

Love your analysis, and thought toward hand planning.

I was lucky, in that 2 players did not know me well, otherwise they would have put me on a minimum of AK otf & folded unless they had a set.

With a flop of AK6 - there's not much chance of anyone having anything worth calling an almost pot size bet without a set themselves, or the few combos of AK left.

Luckily for me, the Button [who had me covered] had A8 & went all-in & didn't flush up.

The other guy I didn't know, with $650, woulda' called but all he had was a T high flush draw & saw that the Button was lookin' really interested in the hand & so he folded.

The best way to protect your set against a flush draw would be to check, have someone bet, squeeze any callers with a check-raise. That's risky because you aren't guaranteed a bet behind you. I wouldn't recommend it unless you have a very good sense of how the hand will play out if you check, but I also don't recommend having "protection" dominate your thinking.

If you were heads-up against a flush/straight combo draw, getting it all in on the flop probably maximizes your opponent's EV, so you shouldn't want to do that against that hand. If you are up against a flush draw and some other hands, it is possible that what maximizes your EV is trapping other players for additional bets when they have neither the best hand nor the best draw.

I was thinking about something similar last night actually. Say I flop a set OOP on a wet board against an unknown villain. I assume I'll pretty much always want to bet. But if raised, it seems like calling and evaluating turn is best so as not to allow the villain to GII with two cards to come as this seems to maximize their EV as you allude to.

Do we bet a blank turn or hope to c/r? I'm guessing bet since I should peg an unknown as passive. What about a non-blank turn? Maybe a blocker bet?

I guess I used the word 'protect' in the wrong context. What I meant was: make it unprofitable for the flush draw to see the turn card & then overcharge to see the river.

Since I can't do that, I overcharge the flush draw to see the turn & what I have left behind, gives me the right price to try & boat up on the river should the flush come ott.

Ok, so the flop was AK6

Let's say my V had QJ

He has 46.7% equity going to river if he goes all-in otf.

There's $180 in the pot & I have ~$290 behind. So, he's puttin' up $290 to win $470, or ~38% of the money going into the pot. So he has an 8.7% money overlay & I'm a 53.3% favorite.

I'll take that line all day, thank you.

With me having KK on that AK6 board, I didn't see what combos were available to anyone else, other than a flush draw, that would call any bet I make that charges the flush draw too much to see the turn, based on his IO, due to my remaining stack size.

As it turned out, the only other person who considered callin' was another lower flush draw. The others auto-mucked.

Am I missing something, that I need to understand? Because I think I played it right.

Should I not be concerned with letting the flush draw see the turn for the right price in exchange for getting more players to put money in the pot otf, drawing very slim?

If I do that, there is no way I can overcharge the flush draw going into the river. If I bet $90, get 2 callers & the flush draw, there is now $540 in the pot & I have only $230 left.

PLUS: Let the donkey be the last player to act with his gutshot draw to Broadway. I bet $230 ott, flush draw calls & now Donkey is lookin' at a 1k pot and may not have $230 behind.

Is this the right way to go about it ?

Maybe you don't play 1/2 that much - but people throwin' in the last of their money on a bad call, 'cause it's late & they're thinkin' "It's bingo time, or I'm goin' home" happens all the freakin' time.

I played last night with a certified alcoholic who left with approximately 3k because he was totally washed out. In a black out & passing out. He caught 5 gutshot straight draws in a row.
He usually stays sober enough to donk it back, but didn't last night.

3/5
Hero (BB, 175), MAWG, businessman look. Short stacking cuz poker roll busto, withdrew $200 from life roll tonight. Friendly with dealers and MAAG on my left.
V (BTN), 30's white guy. Stack 1000ish. Seems solid in 20 minutes. But not familiar to H.

Two limps to V, who raises to 15.
H with JJ raises to 45.
Only V calls.

Flop (130) 46T
H bets 60
V calls

Turn (250) 7
H bets 70 AI

What's your plan if a club falls on the turn?

Not sure why we're not jamming the flop. We're getting looked up by AX and Tx if we shove flop.

It's possible for multiple lines to be +EV. It's complicated by the possibility of going multi-way, but it is incomplete thinking to not at least consider the possibility of better lines instead of stopping when you find an option that is good enough.

If the pot does end up multi-way, the best made hand and the best draw are often co-favorites chopping up value from worse hands. If you knew you were up against a combo draw, betting big enough to get it heads up against that hand might have a lower EV than getting a top pair hand and a worse flush draw to call a smaller bet on the flop and get it in on the turn.

Overall, you should be concerned about your opponents' entire ranges and not just the portion that scares you. I think it is a mistake to play this hand as if someone is certain to have a flush draw.