What Deathcab said.

check back, pretty terrible flop vs a villain 3bet call range . We have very little equity and I strongy disagree with betting 50 to get AK to fold. Even AK with a diamond might peal.

I actually feel like this villain is probably raising light when he makes it 12 vs a couple of limpers and is going to call with a lot of his raising range, hands like KJ and AT and 77, because he has an inflated view of his ability and thinks he can stack hero if he gets a good flop or bluff hero if he gets some scare cards.

Not a good board texture for a cbet. Even if he is fit or fold, this board is bleh. Sounds like you don't know enough about his post flop tendencies for 1 plan to be obvious.

a) You could cbet $50 or so and plan to give up unimproved.

b) You could check the flop and eval turn, not necessarily planning to fold unimproved.

I'd need to know more about his post flop play to know whether I'd choose a) or b), but when in doubt, I'd go with b).

+1 for a check back

I probably two barrel and done unimproved here. It sounds like he's making a few different laydowns w hands of varying strength. By the time he calls two barrels he's probably made up his mind unless the river dramatically changes board texture. I don't expect him to be mucking top pair without an over card hitting; but most of his 9s and weak straight flush draws are going to fold by the turn. We're also ahead or only slightly behind most of that.

I'm shrug folding to a raise. If he semi bluffed then w/e his image says he's waiting and we're probably only ahead a little anyway.

$1/2 just now, $125 eff hero covers.
OMC UTG limps, another field limper, short stack just lost a big pot tosses his $4 in. Hero is in SB and raises to $25 with QJo. UTG calls with $100 behind. Range is pocket pairs, AT+, KQ. Flop is K52r. Hero jams.

Rate pls from optimal down to spewtastic.

I wouldn't raise pf here with an omc limping urg. We have a dominated hand, we are out of position, stacks are not big enough much in the way of maneuvering.

As played I think c betting is manditory. Stacks are too small for Doublebarrelling. I dońt think villian is folding kq or better. The question is whether the extra $55 gets him off qq-99 and those hands were calling the $45 or whatever.

I'd think TT-QQ might fold to the overbet but would call the $45 and the $55 on the turn. These are only 12 combos though (give our hole cards) and I'm not even sure they don't fold tI a c bet.

So, I vote for betting $45 and giving up unless an ace comes and we're pretty sure he doesn't like it.

The possibly tilting guy make raising here much worse given we are not deep.

not a big fan deathcab. 3/10

I never think he's folding a King. I'm trying to get him to fold AQ/AJ type hands or small pocket pairs. I think bluffing an ace is not good if we bet $45.

Care to elaborate?

You really don't think an OMC is folding AQ,AJ, small PP to a bet of $45 here????

I disagree,

But...wait. If this is true, why did we raise pre? I would have thought we did so to take the initiative and take down the pot when everyone misses. Obv. our pf hand is crap against his range.

Raising QJo out of SB not great. Trouble hand oop. It plays okay multiway for two pair and straights. As such I would call for cheap.

Betting 100 to win 60 not great either. Would much prefer to bet 30 and fold to a raise. I think you get the same result a ton for cheaper.

That said I no nothing about the game flow at the table and I admit I am very tight/nitty.

How important do you guys think exercise is to a poker player?

If the poker player is a human being, 100% important.

0%.

GimoG

I've given some thought to this and I think I fubarred this hand, I think I can even bet like 30-35 and easily fold to a ship. I guess at the time I was trying to maximize my fold equity. I thought it would look stronger to shove when the opposite was probably true - he didn't take long to call with TT and he won the hand. Kinda surprised he called but I think a smaller bet accomplishes the same thing at less risk.

If range is JJ-22,AT+,KQ, shove is surprisingly (to me) very slightly +EV if he calls with JJ or better. Take out AT from his range and it's probably a little -EV after rake even if he folds JJ and given chance that short stack wins the main.

Given he might look you up with pocket pairs (however unlikely) and little significant upside, not sure why you would want to jam unless you love variance or have meta game reasons.

I posted before seeing your results. But they don't really change my comments. Agree if your ranging correct, prefer a smaller b/f or x/f over jam.

Villian is a decent player (at least by 1/2 standards). Plays a TAGish game, though probably looser than avocated here. I think he raises big cards on the button to pick on weak limpers. Seen him make some really good hero folds. Not sure about barrelling, stabbing at pot, bluffling frequency. He definitely knows how to value bet. Knows me as a TAG and capable of folding.

1/2 300 effective

Hero opens 99 in CO $12. V calls in BB.


Flop: (22) QT3

Hero bets $15, V calls.

Turn: (40.50) 9

Hero bets $30, V calls

River: (J)

V donks $X.

How small does X have to be to make this a call?

V1 seems ok. Saw him fold nut flush draw earlier on turn to sizeable bet.

V2 is a loose TAG. Saw him raise ATo on the button earlier behind some bad limpers. Misses some value bets. Has some sizing tells on the turn. Winning player.

couple of limpers, V2 limps in LP, hero completes QJ from SB. V1 checks BB.

Flop ($10) Q72

Hero bets $10, V1 calls, V2 raises to $25, Hero calls, V1 calls. V1 has $100 behind, V2 $75, I cover.

Ranging V2 on a queen (often worse than mine), a set, or a flush draw. Kind of feels more like a set or flushdraw given the size. Don't really feel like my hand is strong enough to RR though.

Pot is around $80 going to turn. Plan for various turn cards?

Is this an underground game? holy rakeaments (I assume that is where the missing money went in the turn)...100ish when dudes start putting a multiple of the pot in I start thinking

idk, 15% of pot?
I prefer not to cbet here even though it's HU against a blind. I'd rather bluff catch a safe runout. It would be a rare 1/2 V that would punish this tactic with a double barrel bluff.

this short I'd be leaning toward RR jam if V2 limps wide (like lots of random suited cards) or a fold to this small raise if it signals the usual "strength but don't want lose my customers", don't really like calling OOP here as it will be 3way and I don't know which cards hit V's hands, and they can choose whether to get a free river.

Nah. I just screwed up. Pot would be 50.50 on turn and I would have bet something like $40.

Call 15 w 99. Fold flop w QJ. Your in a check soul read spot now w QJ.