Screwed up that one, and somehow still won. 6-0. ggs krohn

lol, that was pathetic. nice games th10.

Grats TH10. You the man.

Thanks.

Now that the match is over, I'll start playing poorly.

Congrats TH!

Thanks.

I'll have to come and scout your match against Alex in about 4.5 hours to see what I'll be up against in the final. Since I obviously haven't played enough games with you two to know how you play.

Congrats to TH10 and Alex on the semifinal wins. #1 vs #2 seed ultimate showdown in the final!

I believe they're playing at 1PM EST on Tuesday if anyone wants to watch.

Alex has a new logo next to his name locked up. If he loses then he wins the bracket prediction.

And I win the bracket if he wins....so please to be shipping, Alex.

i think i've pretty much been keeping up my 10% DC winrate goal so far this year, and yet it feels like some people are winning like 1 game in 3.

6-0 wow

krohn got bitchslapped by best TC player on teh planet

I really want Alex to win this. Just because if TH does then he's won at everything TC-related and that's no fun at all!

I am a ****** and made an error in rack 9 of the DC
My score should have been like 1500 more lol

I´m too old for this

Still 1/13

If my mistake does not cost me the win I will lol for about a week
If my mistake will cost me the win I will be tilted for about a week

I think feel is the keyword here. Some players have run hot getting 3 or 4 wins in a short time, but they have also had long streches without wins, so their averages are not as good as you might think. Even though I've done horribly in February, I think it is very likely that I still have most wins this year, 9. That is not even close to 1 in 3, actually it is not even 1 in 6.

Thanks for the support.

Big thanks to Zac for organising the tournament. I think it makes the game more exciting, and hope we don't have to wait for the next tournament as long as this one.

Now 2/28.

Tilt time.

indeed

I throw away a DC win in rack 9.
There is a first time for everything.

Goals update.

Done:
[X] New normal mode record.
[X] Top 10 normal mode average above 54k.
[X] Top 10 advanced mode average above 72k.
[X] Win a tournament match.
[X] Win a tournament.
[X] Grand Slam (Forgot to mention this specifically before, but this was the main reason I wanted that number 1 normal score now that it completed this too.)

Currently:
[X] Stay first in the Timed ranking.
[X] Keep the Timed Invincible accolade.
[X] Stay first in the Daily ranking.

Should be realistic:
[ ] Normal mode game with all dice scoring.
NEW: [ ] Combined rating back above 3150, which means 300 rating points gained, considering the penalties are 150 points, and ratings start from 1500.

Possible, but not likely to happen anytime soon:
[ ] Get to Daily Master (1500+ rating).
[ ] 60k+ normal mode score.
[ ] 74k+ advanced mode score.

Probably never going to happen:
[ ] Get to the highest (1700+ rating) accolade in Timed.

I was kinda expecting someone to make snake charmer yesterday.

Triplechang lol - this is really losing strategy a BIG percentage of the time.

I was so hoping no one would place a connected pair of 2s on racks 1-4 yesterday. But there is always someone...

yeah i was pretty annoyed to see someone do it

It is his strategy. Triplechang always connects the 2s in the racks 1-4. Playing against the field like that has given him the combination of a decent amount of wins and a terrible rating.

See for example 23-02 board of Triplechang. He wasn´t even manly enough to finish the game.

Below are the stats of my DCs for February, quite the difference compared to January. This might not be interesting in any other way, but at least it shows pretty well how much variance there is in DCs. One thing I added is rating, January was a pretty crazy +20, but it was helped by having a deviation higher than the minimum, and removing the penalty, which I estimated to have given me about 7-8 rating points.

Stats are listed: January; February; 2012.
General:
Rating: +20; +1; +21
Days played: 29; 29; 58
Wins: 8 (27.59 %); 2 (6.90 %); 10 (17.24 %)
Average players, who finished their games: 30.14; 28.52; 29.33
Average position (raw positions, ties don't affect this): 7.86; 9.76; 8.81
Average players tied with: 0.79; 0.72; 0.76
Head-to-head win % (ties count for this as 0.5 wins): 75.09 %; 66.85 %; 71.09 %

Finishing positions relative to field (ties count for 0.5 wins):
Beating 0.00 % - 16.66 % of opp.: 0; 0; 0
Beating 16.67 % - 33.33 % of opp.: 2; 1; 3
Beating 33.34 % - 50.00 % of opp.: 3; 7; 10
Beating 50.01 % - 66.66 % of opp.: 6; 7; 13
Beating 66.67 % - 83.33 % of opp.: 4; 6; 10
Beating 83.34 % - 100.00 % of opp.: 14; 8; 22

9th rack luck:
More zones to chains: 6/7 (85.71 %); 7/10 (70.00 %); 13/17 (76.47 %)
Number of games where it was possible to win with 9th rack: 16 (55.17 %); 8 (27.59 %); 24 (41.38 %)
Average odds to win with 9th rack for all the days played: 24.41 %; 5.86 %; 15.14 %
Expected wins with 9th rack: 7.08; 1.70; 8.78
Wins compared to win EV: +0.92, +0.30; +1.22

Not surprisingly this was the correct prediction after January, as can be clearly seen from the first two bolded numbers. Head-to-head win % was still pretty good, win % was awful though, as were all the win-related stats (bolded), huge difference in those compared to January. So I was doing quite well a lot of the time, but too often wasn't even close to winning. Even with beating about 2/3 of the field on average I only gained one rating point, that tells how difficult it will be to get to the Daily Master. Still continued to run above EV in both last rack wins and last rack zones, although both were pretty close to neutral this month. Interestingly through 58 games I haven't finished in bottom 22 % a single time, bottom third only thrice, and even bottom half just 13 out of 58, those are pretty good numbers imo.

TH10 confirmed degen

I've been getting close recently to winning the DC and always getting pipped

Gained Timed Master but lost the 3rd place match to krohn. Not sure if it's a good or bad TC day.