Quote:
Originally Posted by Aicirt
In general it seems tough to evaluate play on racks 1-4. A mode that I think would be interesting would be to take some old DC game played by someone better than you, start with their plays from racks 1-4, play the rest on your own, and compare the scores. Get an idea if the reason they are better are in racks 1-4 or racks 5-8.
Edit: Or maybe the better metric would be to compare to your actual score on that DC. Would you play better than your current self if you would have made their plays on racks 1-4? That actually makes more sense.
I think this was discussed a bit ITT earlier in the year. Gabe also had a response in post 6541.
I agree that racks 1-5 are more critical than 5-8.
From a previous post of mine........ if one was able to quantify rating points won/lost or something like that, I think the first 4 racks would be much more important than racks 5-8.
Let's say you took the highest rated player and then the player rated 15th, and you had a 80 point rating difference that was pretty constant. If there was a way to analyze it it would not surprise me at all that points gained would be something like +55-60 in racks 1-4 and +20-25 in racks 4-8.
I know some might argue that rack 5-8 decisions are more important/critical, but often rack 5 plays itself (but not always). Also, in rack 8 most of the decisions are forced by then. So, really it comes down to decisions in racks 6 and 7. In the opening, however, racks 1,2 and 3 are very fluid and played significantly differently by lots of players. And, even rack 4 is often not forced.
I guess one way to confirm this thought is if we had a team event with 1st matched with 16th, 2nd matched with 15th, etc... And, each team had to decide which player was going to play racks 1-4 and which was going to play 5-8 in each game. If the higher ranked player was captain, I am pretty sure he/she would suggest they go first, and have the lower ranked player bring the game home. That, rather than have the top player take the lower ranked player's opening home. Once you got to 6/11, 7/10, 8/9 matchings it probably would not matter as much.
In general I think players with a higher DC win-rate and DC rating tend to have more options after racks 1, 2 and 3 than lower ranked players, and this is what gives them more wins/better scores overall. I think lower ranked players tend to make polarizing decisions sooner, thus sacrificing flexibility.
I also think this is not fully tied to ability either. That is, I think many good TC players are deciding that they like a certain opening or style of play (or preferences) and are just going to roll with it and whether it is -EV or +EV who cares if they like it and are having fun....