Western Conference Finals 2016: Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder - Page 82 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Western Conference Finals 2016: Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder

View Poll Results: Who ya got?

GSW in 4

4 3.13%

GSW in 5

29 22.66%

GSW in 6

26 20.31%

GSW in 7

14 10.94%

OKC in 4

2 1.56%

OKC in 5

3 2.34%

OKC in 6

17 13.28%

OKC in 7

15 11.72%

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18 14.06%

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Page 82 of 201

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32 62 72 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 92 102 132 182

Last

05-25-2016 , 01:45 PM

#2026

GeoffRas22

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

OK haven't solved GS as much as its just that Westbrook and Durant are both all-time great players in their prime and clicking on both ends

yupp, and good call on Curry too. he doesn't look at all physically limited, just missing shots (0-5 on uncontested 3's last night). part of that is scheme, but part of that is just variance.

gotta say, everyone burying them itt makes the thought of a Woya comeback sound pretty nice. people unintentionally underrating what the Thunder & Donovan are doing in this series so far.

Quote

05-25-2016 , 01:51 PM

#2027

Seadood228

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fallen Hero

except if the warriors come back next game and destroy the Thunder (as they're perfectly capable of doing) we'll be pointing out other tactical wrinkles that very likely went right for them. Having said that, I'd wager Curry/Klay/Green making excellent individual plays would very likely tip the scales more than any adjustment Kerr can make.

I agree with this, but what I'm saying is they all have to do this making shots they are less comfortable with. If they go off, which I agree is plausible and perhaps probable, it will be against s defense that has made it much tougher on them than other teams.

You can solve a team and still lose to them imo.

Quote

05-25-2016 , 02:09 PM

#2028

Rococo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Seadood228

It sounds like "solved" to you means "figured out the close to optimal strategy for your personnel."

If that's what you mean, then yes, OKC may have "solved" the Warriors. In any case, I certainly can't think of any better strategy they should be employing and it certainly has worked over the last two games.

Quote

05-25-2016 , 02:10 PM

#2029

Wooders0n

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Curry missing wasnt just variance imo. Combination of variance, him being tired, and him kinda acting like a frontrunning pouty teenage girl both in terms of body language and facial expressions.

Quote

05-25-2016 , 02:11 PM

#2030

candybar

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 4,375

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

Curry missing wasnt just variance imo. Combination of variance, him being tired, and him kinda acting like a frontrunning pouty teenage girl both in terms of body language and facial expressions.

Is he still the best player of all time in your opinion?

Quote

05-25-2016 , 02:11 PM

#2031

Wooders0n

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Solving means OKC has figured out a way to beat them that other teams could learn. "Have a Russ" is not a solution teams can learn.

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05-25-2016 , 02:12 PM

#2032

Wooders0n

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Quote:

Originally Posted by candybar

Is he still the best player of all time in your opinion?

Yeah for now

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05-25-2016 , 02:16 PM

#2033

Seadood228

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Rococo

It sounds like "solved" to you means "figured out the close to optimal strategy for your personnel."

If that's what you mean, then yes, OKC may have "solved" the Warriors. In any case, I certainly can't think of any better strategy they should be employing and it certainly has worked over the last two games.

That's pretty much what I mean. And by no means is this over, I think 15ish% to win the series seems about right, and if I didn't already have a lot on OKC from before the series and after gm1 I would probably hit that again.

I also think OKC is the pick over the Cavs if the lines remain.

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05-25-2016 , 02:22 PM

#2034

Tien

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I dont think its over. The home crowd of OKC was just too strong and amplified every mistake.

Home crowds seem to be having a very strong impact in this playoffs, more noticable than other years.

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05-25-2016 , 02:29 PM

#2035

Rococo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Wooders0n

Curry missing wasnt just variance imo. Combination of variance, him being tired, and him kinda acting like a frontrunning pouty teenage girl both in terms of body language and facial expressions.

If I had never watched him before, I would think that the bolded was a big part of it. But I can't count how many times that I've seen him looked tired, unfocused, dejected, etc., one minute, and then have a five minute stretch where he goes berserk. For better or worse, actual loss of confidence in his offensive game is not an emotion that Curry has ever experienced.

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05-25-2016 , 02:33 PM

#2036

Onlydo2days

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Quote:

Originally Posted by -Insert Witty SN-

~2 weeks ago ~~~> re: thunder:

durant was passive and yogurt soft
westbrook was "too outta control" and couldn't shoot/was inefficient
donovan was a dumb guido
waiters was the worst player in the nba
kanter was unplayable
ibaka was getting wished happy birthday by smuckers

lol what a difference a few weeks makes.

OKC still only -240 true line, getting no respect.

Quote

05-25-2016 , 02:36 PM

#2037

Rococo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Tien

I dont think its over. The home crowd of OKC was just too strong and amplified every mistake.

Home crowds seem to be having a very strong impact in this playoffs, more noticable than other years.

That's true, but when you **** the bed early in the second quarter two games in a row, you can't really attribute your losses to the fact that the home crowd got rowdy.

Of course the crowd was amped. OKC has good fans, and the Warriors fed them red meat by turning it over and not playing good defense.

Russell and KD are great, great players. They don't need much help to win, and the Warriors gave them plenty of help. And the justly deserved result was a total blowout.

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05-25-2016 , 02:39 PM

#2038

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

lol what a difference a few weeks makes.

OKC still only -240 true line, getting no respect.

Wonder what line you could've gotten on Thunder shipping the night after they lost game 1 to Spurs by 92

Quote

05-25-2016 , 03:11 PM

#2039

tzwien

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Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5,267

Based on the likely point spreads, what's the Warriors' equity to win the series? Like 25%?

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05-25-2016 , 03:14 PM

#2040

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

-250 would be roughly 28%

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05-25-2016 , 03:15 PM

#2041

da_fume

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Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 3,035

+250 you mean

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05-25-2016 , 03:16 PM

#2042

ALLTheCookies

half a brain

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 23,373

Quote:

Originally Posted by WichitaDM

You mean Curry and Dray's vaginas got injured or what? A big LOL at the backtracking and excuse making from the Warriors "fans".

I was being ironic. You know, because everyone said they didn't face any healthy teams last year therefore their championship didn't count.

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05-25-2016 , 03:21 PM

#2043

Rococo

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Sure seems like OKC has a better than 72% chance of closing.

I will say this. If GS managed to win games 5 and 6, it would be a monumental task for OKC to win game 7 in Oracle.

But the idea that GS might be slightly favored in game 6, like they were in games 3 and 4, seems laughable.

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05-25-2016 , 03:25 PM

#2044

Roger Clemens

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Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rococo

Honestly, right now, at the end of May 2016, I think that OKC is simply a better team than the Warriors.

Agreed. But if you look back at the matches between these 2 this year not much separated them, only highly leveraged execution at end of games that could have gone either way.

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05-25-2016 , 03:31 PM

#2045

Baltimore Jones

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Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 5,835

Odds imply they're 75% to win the home games and 50% to win the away game (or whatever mix of those). So absurd.

Quote

05-25-2016 , 03:35 PM

#2046

TimM846

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Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 5,787

Quote:

Originally Posted by -Insert Witty SN-

~2 weeks ago ~~~> re: thunder:

durant was passive and yogurt soft
westbrook was "too outta control" and couldn't shoot/was inefficient
donovan was a dumb guido
waiters was the worst player in the nba
kanter was unplayable
ibaka was getting wished happy birthday by smuckers

don't worry, if he has a bad game between now and titling all of this will be true again!

Quote

05-25-2016 , 03:52 PM

#2047

Onlydo2days

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Quote:

Originally Posted by diskoteque

Wonder what line you could've gotten on Thunder shipping the night after they lost game 1 to Spurs by 92

Like 45-1 IIRC

I know they were 22-1 when tied at 2 with SAS.

Quote

05-25-2016 , 03:57 PM

#2048

Roger Clemens

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Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rococo

But the idea that GS might be slightly favored in game 6, like they were in games 3 and 4, seems laughable.

From a market perspective, not really.

To get to a G6 GSW obviously needs to win G5, which at the moment has a median market expectation of 7 point win. This reflects about a 2 point market adjustment from pre G4. Using that alone would put G6 OKC -1.

OKC G5 win chance is about 25%. So given a GSW victory their median win expectation is skewed 12.5% to the right of the distribution curve, which yields a 10 point GSW win using 4% push frequencies.

So, I'm fairly certain the GSW nut huggers will be convinced a 10+ point win bodes well for them going forward, and we will see a reversion in market lines to pre G4 levels.