I'm aware of variance, and what we saw in games 3 and 4 was not that imo.

FWIW, I would probably say the same thing about every elite NBA player. None of those guys are blueberries.


The players to get physical with are hotheads like Draymond. He doesn't get intimidated, but he is easily distracted into misdirected efforts to establish that he is the true tough guy on the floor.

Curry is much harder to bait with physical play than a guy like Draymond.

Variance isn't a part of some games and not others. It's a part of every game. And I didn't say it was all variance. I also think that OKC played good, solid team defense on Curry. All other things being equal, Curry is more likely to have a poor game when being well defended than he is when he is being poorly defended.

Well obviously that's true. And if you put him on his ass early it won't hurt you and might help. He was throwing up quick shots around the rim in games 3 and 4 due to defense and length, it doesn't hurt to give him a hard foul early on.

You're acting like I'm saying it will cause him to become shook again and that's not what I'm saying.

I think it's super cool that you're doing this and applaud you for making your son's month, at least.

Rococo,

You're arguing that pressure getting to the QB doesn't have an impact on future snaps. Dudes rush things when flustered throughout the game.

There is no way to know, I guess. I understand that FTAs are a poor proxy for "getting put on his ass", but FWIW, Curry shot 51.7% from the field (and over 53.8% from 3) in regular season games where he took 8 or more FTs.

At a minimum, I don't think there is any negative correlation between FTAs and shooting %.

I'm not arguing that at all. I specifically conceded that point. Of course Curry can rush things when he is well defended on the inside. He doesn't like getting his shot blocked any more than any other player.

That is very different than rushing your shot to avoid having to take a hard foul. I see absolutely no evidence of that happening.

When an elite quarterback like Tom Brady is pressured, he of course rushes throws. That's almost entirely because he is trying to avoid negative plays (sacks), not because he is scared of getting hit. Tom Brady has taken a million hard hits in his career. If he were afraid of being hit, he wouldn't be Tom Brady.

That didn't read as being afraid of 'hearing footsteps' but instead interiror d and shot blocking on that individual play, accumulation doesn't seem to factor in. It's fatigue from facing rim pressure. Some physical, some mental.

It's overall making going to the rim not be a fun experience. Diff things play into that. Not all A or B. I think 'putting him on his ass' isn't being discussed like someone against Detroit in the 80's but something you can do a dusting of.

Here is the thing. It doesn't matter if Steph is physically or mentally intimidated. What does matter is the fact that RUSS is bigger, stronger, faster, and wants it more. This is why RUSS will win game 6 and Steph will not.

Against an experienced boxer, body blows still make them drop their hands later in the fight.

It's not a defect or indicative of lack of character. It's being human.

I guess I reacted strongly to Seafood because he is coming awfully close to the LOL NBA Olds' argument about how Curry, Durant, or whoever, wouldn't have done them like that because they would have put Curry, Durant, or whoever into the second row. It's such a terrible argument. Its akin to Bob Gibson talking about how he would have put a fastball into Bryce Harper's earhole. First of all, it's bull****, and second of all, it wouldn't have accomplished a damn thing.

But that wasn't SeaDood's argument. He was arguing that Curry could be dissuaded by hard fouls from trying to go inside. I just see no evidence of that.

I ninja added a reply to you in a previous post, so I don't know if you saw the above.

I don't think Dood is advocating fouling him over and over and over ...

my post there was countering your Tom Brady isn't afraid of getting hit because he's Tom Brady take. Not so much an encapsulation of Dood's argument.

I think you two were talking past each other somewhat. I think Dood is right but I don't know if the concept was being communicated clearly and you were thinking in extremes.

Either that or Dood is talking in extremes.

So Warriors' equity is like 45% now since they are a lock to crush game 7

Meh. Dood made an offhand comment that he hadn't put a lot of thought into. I ridiculously blew it up into a bigger thing than he intended because of, I don't know, reasons. Dood defended his original statement because that's what you do on a message board.

And then you came in and said we were talking past each other.

Seems pretty standard.

What is the moneyline for the series now?

I've always thought the games were correlated. Before game 5, I had the Warriors at 10-15% equity. My thought was:

Game 5 -- Warriors 70-75% equity
Game 6 -- Warriors 20-25% equity
Game 7 -- Warriors 80-85% equity

So call it 16-21% equity now. I'm quite pessimistic about game 6.

Never underestimate Rustle's ability to toss a game away

I drank a lot last night.

5dimes rn:
OKC -190
GS +165

Rococo, I agree with you on series odds but I think it is more 30% game 6 and 70% game 7.

I can't imagine the Warriors being larger favorites in game 7 than OKC in game 6.

Thanks da_fume, OKC -190 looks decent.

Understood, that wasn't where I was getting at and specifically didn't bring the old's argument in because I knew it was terrible. I just felt that letting him feel it doesn't have negative outcome other than a point.

Also I don't even think I was trying to make a point, :shrugs:. I was just stating that I think they foul Steph hard early on in game 6. I honestly don't know whether or not it'll work, but it can't hurt.

I disagree that he can't be rattled though, he was pretty adamant about a "hit" being taken on him and being targeted in game 5 of his series against Denver, and like game 3/4 here he played bad, and then went after a heckling fan. I don't think it's just variance that he plays worse when teams are physical with him. Whether or not that is what happens with Steph, fighting to continue, we just don't know and probably won't even after game 6.