Pinnacle prices imply ~19% chance for the thunder in game 7. Higher than Id have guessed.

Man, this thread is gonna get rich with how many people are sure the Thunder are gonna roll in game 6.

I saw nothing from the Warriors last night to indicate that they shouldn't be a pretty decent dog in Game 6. It's not like they had some revelation and turned a corner.

Definitely think Warriors can win game 6 and OKC can win game 7. I got the warriors has having the bigger road challenge despite ODDS.

Some of you still haven't learned the preceding game means absolute dick in the playoffs. You got one guy going on a crusade about roughing up Curry or some ****, lmfao. Not a good look to be an OKC backer, fan whatever and be this shook with a 3-2 lead. Can't wait for game 7!

Making a prediction is not even close to a "crusade".

I'm not even sure how a comment like I made could cause such a response. Oh wait I guess I do.

Yeah this is where I'm at. I would have felt different had GSW looked like they were getting what they want and destroying OKC, that would have led me to believe that games 1,3,4 were somewhat of an anomaly. But to me it just looked like things were going GSWs way while OKC faced diversity and it was still close.

It's almost like the old GSW showed up, and they barely beat OKC on their home court, getting calls, and getting some favorable bounces..... also that they seemed extremely happy with that because the outcome was they didn't lose in game 5. That's a bit casualfan.jpg of me, but yeah I think that the Warriors reacted like they knew they're going to lose game 6.

I still don't think the Warriors have played their best basketball in this series. I know the Thunder are causing problems for Curry and Green, but I feel like what they showed in the first 92 games is that they are capable of playing better than they have so far.

I also think people are missing how far above their means OKC's role players played in Games 3 and 4. Russ and KD have been great all series, but they should be great. Getting massive contributions from Ibaka, Waiters, and Adams all in the same game means that OKC is gonna roll over anybody. I think you can make the case that Adams is a young guy rapidly improving and I buy that. But to say that Ibaka and Waiters are just gonna replicate their performances from games 3 and 4 as some type of given is a huge stretch.

This is too extreme. The Warriors reacted like there was plenty of work still to do, which is obviously correct. Cocky would have been an absurd reaction to winning game 5.

I think that GS did make a major positive adjustment on the offensive end. Ball movement was much improved, Bogut was more involved in the offensive, etc.
And refusing to go small was a major adjustment by Kerr compared to games 3 and 4.

The reason I remain pessimistic is because OKC still seemed to be getting very good shots, at least until Durant started taking a bunch of bad shots at the very end. Russell and Westbrook are both likely to shoot better in game 6. I didn't see enough improvement on the defensive end for me to think that Golden State can hold OKC under 115 pts in OKC. My guess is that OKC wins a high scoring, entertaining game.

Because I think that the games are modestly correlated, I don't agree with this. I wish there was a way to structure a bet around this, but I can't think of how to do it.

I would assume there is a positive one and the causation is the reverse of what you are talking about. Games he shoots lights out are games he gets to shoot a lot of fts

There is a "rushing attempts" quality to ft attempts

You don't think they were acting cocky? Like I said maybe it's casualfan of me, but I saw Dray flexing over a couple plays after playing like complete dog**** most of the series, I saw Steph pumping his chest while dribbling once the game was in hand and yelling "we're not going home". They just seemed a little too happy to continue the series rather than mad that they didn't stomp on OKC after having it done to them twice in a row, or at least reacting like they knew that was the expected result at least. OKC barely seemed to care after going up 3-1, maybe because they knew they had work left and weren't happy just to be up.

IMO that's the way a team like Toronto would act after surviving on their home court, not the World Champs and a team that knows they are better than their opponent.

LOL @ saying old GWS showed up. Seadood you are wanting bro.

It WAS the old GSW. They beat OKC by about the same amount at home that they did in the regular season. It's not me that's wanting.

Is there some world where Golden State is 15-20 points better at home than OKC if they ran it 1000 times? Your post doesn't even make sense.

Peak GS slaughters OKC. They've played nothing like the Warriors of the first half of the season. Until game 6 and 7. gg

and I'm the one that's wanting.

They're obviously capable of playing better, but to just assume they're going to start doing it in Game 6 based on what we've seen is silly.

1. Calling Ibaka a role player is not at all fair. He's been a large part of their success for years, and he's found a real niche since he's been moved to be used as a wing offensively (with Roberson shifting down as a big). And GSW still hasn't really figured out how to defend that.

2. Role players generally play way better at home. Golden State doesn't win Game 5 without Bogut's terrific performance. They're super unlikely to get something like that again in Game 6 from him. Waiters may well continue to regress because he sucks, but they don't need him to win.

And honestly, one of the big reasons I think the Thunder should be solid favorites in Game 6 is the difference in coaching at this point. Kerr has gotten his ass kicked the entire series. Last night, he was still playing Varejao and didn't have any of the Big 3 in the game at the start of the 4th quarter. He was fortunate in that it worked, but it was a ridiculous move with potentially 12 minutes left in their season.

I still can't recall any major adjustments from Kerr. The Death Lineup played some 2-3 zone for a couple possessions last night which was interesting but I'm not sure that's going to be very effective over long stretches, if they try it. The Death Lineup has been baaaad, and that's a huge problem. Green just can't be maximally effective offensively against all of OKC's length and athleticism, and it's a very real problem offensively for the Woyas.

Honestly, there doesn't seem to be too much of a correlation in either direction.

The biggest adjustment was ditching the death lineup almost entirely in game 5. Verajao is awful, but he played a grand total of three minutes. If the Warriors hadn't been rolling at the beginning of the fourth quarter with a lot of the starters out, I'm pretty sure Kerr would have sent Curry & Co. back into the game immediately.

@mjw 7 of their 11 wins in the playoffs Waiters has double digit points. Only one loss he scored at least double digits. So that statement isn't entirely true, they need some of his scoring clearly.

I thought you were talking about Curry's very subdued interview after the game.

If Dray and Curry hadn't shown emotion, and the Warriors had lost, then I suspect that the casual fan in you would be saying that the Warriors came out flat because they knew they were in a hopeless situation. Dray did that silly flex move all season, including in games against the ****tiest of opponents. I highly doubt that it was because he was just so surprised and thrilled to have beaten the Nets or whoever.

Bench Draymond

If I agreed to bet $X even money on the Warriors in game 6, then the other side would have to agree to accept a bet on GS in game 7 for some multiple of $X, again at even odds.

Even though I am bearish on GS's chances in game 6, I'd probably take this bet if I were allowed to bet in the range of $3X on the second leg.

I'd probably do it for up to X = $2000

Can't do it. Warriors can't put enough rebounders on the floor without him.