Sporting Events FAQ, Liveblog, and BANGERS - Page 1651 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Wait a minute, we're assuming that a coach making the opposite of Rivera's bad decisions means all those games end up as Panthers wins?

Isn't that a rather dodgy assumption given how terrible that team is..

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11-26-2012 , 01:18 PM

#41252

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 47,263

Holy **** he actually did it??

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11-26-2012 , 01:18 PM

#41253

Das Boot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 20,196

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dids

Actual cool thing that happened in OOT:

Guy claims he can take off and land plane just based on his Flight Sim experience. OOT's resident pilot gets things setup to see if it's true. Linked below is the pilot's trip report of the experience:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=606

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

a) Panthers with a neutral HC are far from terrible.
b) I forget the details of all 3 specific mistakes, but iirc they were all high-leverage end-of-game mistakes in games the Panthers were extremely strong favorites to win with optimal decision-making, and the Panthers ended up losing all 3. Cam sneaks are very high-percentage plays.

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11-26-2012 , 01:26 PM

#41254

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...s-week-12.html

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11-26-2012 , 01:28 PM

#41255

Das Boot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 20,196

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...forfeited.html

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Burke

The average team cost itself 0.65 wins this season due to its 4th down decision errors.

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11-26-2012 , 02:03 PM

#41256

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

Quote:

Originally Posted by A guy

The average team cost itself 0.65 wins this season due to its 4th down decision errors.

This isn't too surprising, after all they are getting compared to flawless EV bots. And as we've just seen in post 41244, even math-aware smart people are capable of on-the-spot 4th down EV calculation fails. (Yes, I get that if it's the Pats offense then going for it EV is underestimated, but even so, the true difference between punting & going for it is not in the same stratosphere as your initial estimate of 0.2)

The other thing i'd note is that Carolina are doing better than league average (a mere 0.51 wins sacrificed)

Last edited by BAIDS; 11-26-2012 at 02:08 PM.

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11-26-2012 , 02:07 PM

#41257

Riverman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 73,135

that doesn't take into account the karma factor

the model needs to take into account that every dumbass mexican chilly error is 100% guaranteed to result in a loss

the atlanta game was hilarious, even after the 4th and 1 debacle, they gave up a 90 yard drive in like 30 seconds when the falcons had no timeouts

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11-26-2012 , 02:08 PM

#41258

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

not to mention those numbers are for last season

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11-26-2012 , 02:20 PM

#41259

Pudge714

Modding All Day

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 39,104

People itt also assuming anfls is perfect. Das Boot and others have noted spots in the past where its obviously been wrong and in spots where anfls is wrong coaches are probably making up for lost equity.

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11-26-2012 , 02:21 PM

#41260

Das Boot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 20,196

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

And as we've just seen in post 41244, even math-aware smart people are capable of on-the-spot 4th down EV calculation fails. (Yes, I get that if it's the Pats offense then going for it EV is underestimated, but even so, the true difference between punting & going for it is not in the same stratosphere as your initial estimate of 0.2)

New England scores touchdowns on 33.9% of its offensive possessions. Averaging 16th and 17th gets 19.8% for league-avg TD rate. This is a huge difference. NE also has a below-average defense. Think you're drastically underrating the situational factors in concluding it's not in the stratosphere of a .2 WPA mistake (depending on what the stratosphere is I guess.)

(Let's shift further discussion to NFL thread rather than FAQ.)

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11-26-2012 , 02:24 PM

#41261

Needle77

No Longer Protecting

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 43,789

I think we should put together a generic christmas(holiday) gift list. Like I have no idea what to buy my mom or my sister for christmas and have sucked miserably at this for years(somehow they tell me what they want, I buy exactly that, but its not the right thing when they open it).

I also really want to have my shopping done extremely "early" this year(as in...before decemeber 10th).

Any interest in this or am I just a tool(or both)?

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11-26-2012 , 02:28 PM

#41262

kevin21

SE Spokesman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 62,020

I vote tool

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11-26-2012 , 02:36 PM

#41263

Riverman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 73,135

In today's installment of "LOL PPA," their "action plan" for today is to tweet Saxby Chambliss about online poker.

Saxby Chambliss is a right-wing religious conservative who has exactly zero chance of ever supporting online gambling.

Please do not give these idiots your money.

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11-26-2012 , 02:45 PM

#41264

Needle77

No Longer Protecting

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 43,789

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevin21

I vote tool

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11-26-2012 , 04:28 PM

#41265

kevin21

SE Spokesman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 62,020

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11-26-2012 , 04:41 PM

#41266

Biesterfield

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 8,042

Screw this Dexter talk, Homeland > All

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11-26-2012 , 05:50 PM

#41267

tuq

TEEJ

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 46,365

PSA: http://www.amazon.com/b?_encoding=UT...F8&node=409566

The two things that jump out at me which are still available are the Halo 4 / $30 total credit ($20 gift card + $10 AIV credit) and the G155 for $179. I bought one of those earlier this year for $250 and it is very useful if you have an XBox or PS3 and do any traveling.

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11-26-2012 , 06:10 PM

#41268

kidcolin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 109,033

Watching "goon" on Netflix. Only 30 mins in but highly recommended. Seann William Scott can do no wrong.

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11-26-2012 , 06:20 PM

#41269

SarcasticRat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 9,774

That movie is surprisingly great. Strong understated performance by SWS and you can tell that the filmmakers actually understand and love hockey.

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11-26-2012 , 06:21 PM

#41270

mutigers

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 37,175

I also heard it was hilarious but that was from my stoner roommate and his friend so I didn't take it that seriously guess I need to actually watch it

supposedly they made a video game out of it too lol

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11-26-2012 , 06:24 PM

#41271

kidcolin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 109,033

It's SWS and I'm pretty sure the trailer park boys are involved in some way. Can't miss proposition IMO.

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11-26-2012 , 06:29 PM

#41272

LuckyLloyd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 11,543

Yeah, really liked Goon! Wasn't expecting much and SWS was a particular surprise.

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11-26-2012 , 06:43 PM

#41273

Franchise 60

deliciously angry

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 42,744

Goon was real good

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11-26-2012 , 07:08 PM

#41274

yeotaJMU

Shines ELIte's Shoes

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 22,414

Anyone seen Pandorum? Worth buying?

It was on TV last night at like 1AM but I fell asleep before I figured out what the deal was with the ship and basically missed the 2nd half of it... It's not on netflix and it seems like it would be decent quality on blu-ray but if the plot is ******ed I'd rather not spend $25 bucks on it