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Old 03-01-2013, 04:03 PM   #53751
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
yea. If they break every buyin into quartiles of skill then each quartile can produce winners as it is basically a miniture version of the whole player pool.
except the winners get bumped up and start losing (unless you're counting on the unlucky ppl at the 0-5th, 25-30th, 50-55th, and 75-80th percentiles of skill to keep losing at x bb/100 indefinitely to fund the winners). And before this all came out, they wouldn't even have any idea why they were suddenly losing. initial take is that a rough 3-4 tiers of players would be even more, or at least just as, awkward and distorting and disorienting for those involved than the "rank each player and get as close to perfectly even skill as possible".
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:04 PM   #53752
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

think of the player segregations like you would think of a a 1/2 game at the following times: party poker 2003, party poker 2005, pokerstars 2007, pokerstars 2009, pokerstars right before black friday. If you split skill levels down those lines you get widely different skill levels, but can still have a wide array of winners as each time period has marginal and big winners. Once you put the marginal party poker 2003 winners in the pokerstars pre-black friday game they get crushed though. thats what you want to avoid as a site. the worst of the worst will still lose quickly. the best of the best will still win big. however, the marginal winners or slight losers wont be squeezed out.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:04 PM   #53753
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

And yeah if the best they can do is break the player pool into quartiles then I agree there will still be some winners (there would still be winners even if the skill matching were more granular than that since there's no way it could be perfect). I don't see how it's arguable that there will be MORE winners though.

The biggest winners will win less. The biggest losers will lose less. That money isn't being redistributed amongst the players though, it's going to the house.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:05 PM   #53754
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
no, site is aiming for max rake. they dont care what your hourly is.

ofc they do. everyone with 0bb/hr maximizes rake. cmon, this aint hard.

yea, they want max total rake but river bets at 3/6 dont exactly matter since virtually every hand that reaches the river already has $3 raked.

they def do matter. i am a grate river value bettor. proly accounts for .5bb/hr over my life. i crush weaker players with thin value bets. site knows this bc phd professors analyze and now im paired with more optimal river callers. more money stays in the pool and is eventually raked.

yea. If they break every buyin into quartiles of skill then each quartile can produce winners as it is basically a miniture version of the whole player pool.
do you seriously no understand?
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:06 PM   #53755
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CDL my "river bettor vs. Caller" example was just one way it gets "shady". If they intentionally seat 3 frequent PFRs with three loose callers early the problem is that same. I'm fine with Clark's quartile idea from a PR standpoint but if you're matching on anything beyond EV adjusted BB/100 I think its a much harder sell.

The thing for everyone to remember here is that casinos already offer a place where EVERYONE is -EV and yet they still do fine. People will play for variance if nothing else.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:07 PM   #53756
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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except the winners get bumped up and start losing (unless you're counting on the unlucky ppl at the 0-5th, 25-30th, 50-55th, and 75-80th percentiles of skill to keep losing at x bb/100 indefinitely to fund the winners). And before this all came out, they wouldn't even have any idea why they were suddenly losing. initial take is that a rough 3-4 tiers of players would be even more awkward and distorting and disorienting for those involved.
This is a good point. Run hot, get bumped up, lose it back.

I get what you guys are saying about how the matching could be more sophisticated than "sort by BB/100" (and if it is just sort by bb/100, hopefully the software is called IGGY).

However, if you think that at most they're going to split the player base into quartiles then how fancy can the software really be.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:07 PM   #53757
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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Yeah I get that the idea is to keep losing players on the site longer. The skill matching lets donks play other donks rather than get feasted on by regs.

Not sure why you shifted to that discussion from what we were talking about initially, which was whether there will be fewer winners as a result of skill matching.

You don't seem to get that if the skill matching software works optimally that there will be NO long-term +EV players. Of course there will be "winners" due to variance.
there will be long term winners bc there is not a player pool with infinite depth and they still need to make sure games run continuously at all levels.

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except the winners get bumped up and start losing (unless you're counting on the unlucky ppl at the 0-5th, 25-30th, 50-55th, and 75-80th percentiles of skill to keep losing at x bb/100 indefinitely to fund the winners)
if they get bumped up and start losing then you can move them back down. its not like an escalator that only goes up. it works both ways. also, winning and losing is not the ideal consideration for the sites. expected wins and losses should be what they use.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:08 PM   #53758
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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think of the player segregations like you would think of a a 1/2 game at the following times: party poker 2003, party poker 2005, pokerstars 2007, pokerstars 2009, pokerstars right before black friday.
yeah except you're teleporting people between the groups as soon as they win or lose too much. (you have to, otherwise manipulation of what group you're in completely undermines the whole system)

Quote:
if they get bumped up and start losing then you can move them back down. its not like an escalator that only goes up. it works both ways. also, winning and losing is not the ideal consideration for the sites. expected wins and losses should be what they use.
yeah so long-term ev is 0 minus rake.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:09 PM   #53759
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

I guess a good result of this change could be getting solid winning bots away from the worst players
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:12 PM   #53760
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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This is a good point. Run hot, get bumped up, lose it back.

I get what you guys are saying about how the matching could be more sophisticated than "sort by BB/100" (and if it is just sort by bb/100, hopefully the software is called IGGY).

However, if you think that at most they're going to split the player base into quartiles then how fancy can the software really be.
how far do you think you could split a player pool and still have it function? maybe into deciles at nl10, but literally no one makes a living there. at nl1000 FR games didnt even have 10 tables going at many times when I was still playing in 2008. You simply cant split that player pool too much if at all. NL400 could go into 2-3 ways max without a deeper player pool than I remember.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:13 PM   #53761
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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yeah except you're teleporting people between the groups as soon as they win or lose too much. (you have to, otherwise manipulation of what group you're in completely undermines the whole system)



yeah so long-term ev is 0 minus rake.
you dont understand how one could win big and get promoted and repeat a few times and then stall out as a .25bb/100 winner or move up in stakes at a lower skill level and still be a winner lifetime?
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:14 PM   #53762
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Well clearly PP split it up enough for people to notice without being informed.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:14 PM   #53763
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

long-term winrate EV, I should have been more precise. you can obviously steal a few bucks from fish then leave if that's what you're after.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:16 PM   #53764
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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Is that 84 payments of 743.99 for a 10k loan? Is there anyone on earth dumb enough to take that loan and yet have the ability to pay it back?
biggest thieves in the world are the people who start structured settlement companies/money lenders.

world would likely be a better place if those dudes (or women, but thats highly unlikely) were assassinated
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:17 PM   #53765
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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do you seriously no understand?
1. how could you even make 2 non-bot winrates EXACTLY equal vs. a larger player pool over the long run?

2. how can you set this to 0?

3. how can you find a large enough player pool so that the previous 2 conditions are satisfied?

4. why would setting their winrates at 0 be better than having one winner and one loser who redeposits or is replaced by another loser who redeposits?
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:17 PM   #53766
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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Local ads for tax refund advances have been airing almost nonstop in my area. Never bothered to look up their take but it has to be a hugely depressing amount.
the other downside is i have to see ****ing montel williams on my teevee every night of NBAing
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:17 PM   #53767
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CDL do you think this is good for poker long term?
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:20 PM   #53768
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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you dont understand how one could win big and get promoted and repeat a few times and then stall out as a .25bb/100 winner or move up in stakes at a lower skill level and still be a winner lifetime?
Here's why you can't have marginal winners (or, to be more precise: you can have marginal winners, but it'll be arbitrary and skill-independent unless they manipulate the system):

The losers in quartile 1 will be better pokerers than the winners in quartile 2. So, if being a marginal winner in q2 is a possible equilibrium state, there'll be huge incentives to play exactly the level of poker to stay a marginal winner in q2 and nothing better (which'd get you bumped up). that's dog**** not poker.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:21 PM   #53769
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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CDL do you think this is good for poker long term?
You have to clearly define what you mean.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:23 PM   #53770
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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You don't seem to get that if the skill matching software works optimally that there will be NO long-term +EV players. Of course there will be "winners" due to variance.
The goal isn't to match players as closely as possible, though. They'll realize that perfect matching, even if possible, creates few winners, maybe none, which will cause problems on their end.

I dont think it's really possible, though. Narrowing the pool finely enough that everyone is, say -2 to 0 bets/100, would limit the pool enough that getting games would be a problem. This would force the site to expand the group, opening up the win rates. It's impossible to say for sure, but intuitively I don't think you could keep games going smoothly without some winners since waiting for a game due to lack of opponents in one's class would be so bad for the site's rake.

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Another side issue for the playerbase is that if a player in the "Welcome Room" or whatever they called the easy one after playing 10k hands then they are not gonna be able to think they're good.

Not that this is something PP should care about, but poker being the perfect mix of tricking people into thinking they are good players could definitely be lost.
So don't tell them what group they're in. If somebody thinks they're good playing 60/15 they won't be able to tell that their opponents are terrible. Would make for epic posts here though - "PP's algorithm must be ****ed, everyone I play against is a fish!"
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:24 PM   #53771
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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CDL do you think this is good for poker long term?
well, I know that I would play midstakes again in a setup like this and I probably would stick to playing something like nl50 if it was legalized and the bumhunting continued at the pace it was at 3-4 years ago. so they would capture some of the semi-serious players like myself who aren't looking to make a living but wouldnt mind trying to make a few extra bucks.

I think its better for sites profits and better for the majority of players including practically all of the losing players.

I certainly dont think its extremely bad for anyone other than the people who play midstakes professionally.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:28 PM   #53772
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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1. how could you even make 2 non-bot winrates EXACTLY equal vs. a larger player pool over the long run?

i dunno. i aint smart. clark said they got billions of data points and phd scientists. id imagine those guys can get close.

2. how can you set this to 0?

phd scientists

3. how can you find a large enough player pool so that the previous 2 conditions are satisfied?

4. why would setting their winrates at 0 be better than having one winner and one loser who redeposits or is replaced by another loser who redeposits?

bc moar rake. also false dichotomy (rip thremp.) how about the best is having 2 players at 0bb/hr and then a third player deposits and joins.

how could it be optimal to ship one guy away prematurely? theres rake to be had.
.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:29 PM   #53773
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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Americans play the lottery despite it raking ~50%, you're way overestimating the collective will of degens
But you're 50/50 to win millions! You either do or your don't. Tell me where else you can win 40 million dollars by spending 1 dollar.

Just saw the Western Sky post. lol.

Was watching a YT video the other day of one of their commercials and the comment section pointed out that either their 5k or 10k loan was at 116% APR.

You better be fearing for your life if you take out a loan from Western Sky.

Last edited by A-Rod's Cousin; 03-01-2013 at 04:34 PM.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:32 PM   #53774
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog & FREE MONEY!!!

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well, I know that I would play midstakes again in a setup like this and I probably would stick to playing something like nl50 if it was legalized and the bumhunting continued at the pace it was at 3-4 years ago. so they would capture some of the semi-serious players like myself who aren't looking to make a living but wouldnt mind trying to make a few extra bucks.

I think its better for sites profits and better for the majority of players including practically all of the losing players.

I certainly dont think its extremely bad for anyone other than the people who play midstakes professionally.
see you outed yourself. you think this setup will allow you to make money. it wont. if you start making money, you get moved to the tougher bracket. have fun playing with that in the back of your mind.
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Old 03-01-2013, 04:34 PM   #53775
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Even if you don't bumhunt surely you'd like the chance for a terrible player to sir down at your table right
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