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Old 11-26-2012, 01:16 PM   #41251
BAIDS
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Wait a minute, we're assuming that a coach making the opposite of Rivera's bad decisions means all those games end up as Panthers wins?

Isn't that a rather dodgy assumption given how terrible that team is..
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Old 11-26-2012, 01:18 PM   #41252
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Holy **** he actually did it??
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Old 11-26-2012, 01:18 PM   #41253
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dids View Post
Actual cool thing that happened in OOT:

Guy claims he can take off and land plane just based on his Flight Sim experience. OOT's resident pilot gets things setup to see if it's true. Linked below is the pilot's trip report of the experience:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=606


Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS View Post
Wait a minute, we're assuming that a coach making the opposite of Rivera's bad decisions means all those games end up as Panthers wins?

Isn't that a rather dodgy assumption given how terrible that team is..
a) Panthers with a neutral HC are far from terrible.
b) I forget the details of all 3 specific mistakes, but iirc they were all high-leverage end-of-game mistakes in games the Panthers were extremely strong favorites to win with optimal decision-making, and the Panthers ended up losing all 3. Cam sneaks are very high-percentage plays.
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Old 11-26-2012, 01:26 PM   #41254
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS View Post
Wait a minute, we're assuming that a coach making the opposite of Rivera's bad decisions means all those games end up as Panthers wins?

Isn't that a rather dodgy assumption given how terrible that team is..
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...s-week-12.html
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Old 11-26-2012, 01:28 PM   #41255
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...forfeited.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Burke
The average team cost itself 0.65 wins this season due to its 4th down decision errors.
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:03 PM   #41256
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by A guy
The average team cost itself 0.65 wins this season due to its 4th down decision errors.
This isn't too surprising, after all they are getting compared to flawless EV bots. And as we've just seen in post 41244, even math-aware smart people are capable of on-the-spot 4th down EV calculation fails. (Yes, I get that if it's the Pats offense then going for it EV is underestimated, but even so, the true difference between punting & going for it is not in the same stratosphere as your initial estimate of 0.2)

The other thing i'd note is that Carolina are doing better than league average (a mere 0.51 wins sacrificed)

Last edited by BAIDS; 11-26-2012 at 02:08 PM.
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:07 PM   #41257
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

that doesn't take into account the karma factor

the model needs to take into account that every dumbass mexican chilly error is 100% guaranteed to result in a loss

the atlanta game was hilarious, even after the 4th and 1 debacle, they gave up a 90 yard drive in like 30 seconds when the falcons had no timeouts
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:08 PM   #41258
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

not to mention those numbers are for last season
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:20 PM   #41259
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People itt also assuming anfls is perfect. Das Boot and others have noted spots in the past where its obviously been wrong and in spots where anfls is wrong coaches are probably making up for lost equity.
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:21 PM   #41260
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS View Post
And as we've just seen in post 41244, even math-aware smart people are capable of on-the-spot 4th down EV calculation fails. (Yes, I get that if it's the Pats offense then going for it EV is underestimated, but even so, the true difference between punting & going for it is not in the same stratosphere as your initial estimate of 0.2)
New England scores touchdowns on 33.9% of its offensive possessions. Averaging 16th and 17th gets 19.8% for league-avg TD rate. This is a huge difference. NE also has a below-average defense. Think you're drastically underrating the situational factors in concluding it's not in the stratosphere of a .2 WPA mistake (depending on what the stratosphere is I guess.)

(Let's shift further discussion to NFL thread rather than FAQ.)
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:24 PM   #41261
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

I think we should put together a generic christmas(holiday) gift list. Like I have no idea what to buy my mom or my sister for christmas and have sucked miserably at this for years(somehow they tell me what they want, I buy exactly that, but its not the right thing when they open it).

I also really want to have my shopping done extremely "early" this year(as in...before decemeber 10th).

Any interest in this or am I just a tool(or both)?
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:28 PM   #41262
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

I vote tool
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:36 PM   #41263
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

In today's installment of "LOL PPA," their "action plan" for today is to tweet Saxby Chambliss about online poker.

Saxby Chambliss is a right-wing religious conservative who has exactly zero chance of ever supporting online gambling.

Please do not give these idiots your money.
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:45 PM   #41264
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

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I vote tool
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Old 11-26-2012, 04:28 PM   #41265
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

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Old 11-26-2012, 04:41 PM   #41266
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Screw this Dexter talk, Homeland > All
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Old 11-26-2012, 05:50 PM   #41267
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

PSA: http://www.amazon.com/b?_encoding=UT...F8&node=409566

The two things that jump out at me which are still available are the Halo 4 / $30 total credit ($20 gift card + $10 AIV credit) and the G155 for $179. I bought one of those earlier this year for $250 and it is very useful if you have an XBox or PS3 and do any traveling.
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Old 11-26-2012, 06:10 PM   #41268
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Watching "goon" on Netflix. Only 30 mins in but highly recommended. Seann William Scott can do no wrong.
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Old 11-26-2012, 06:20 PM   #41269
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

That movie is surprisingly great. Strong understated performance by SWS and you can tell that the filmmakers actually understand and love hockey.
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Old 11-26-2012, 06:21 PM   #41270
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

I also heard it was hilarious but that was from my stoner roommate and his friend so I didn't take it that seriously guess I need to actually watch it

supposedly they made a video game out of it too lol
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Old 11-26-2012, 06:24 PM   #41271
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It's SWS and I'm pretty sure the trailer park boys are involved in some way. Can't miss proposition IMO.
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Old 11-26-2012, 06:29 PM   #41272
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Yeah, really liked Goon! Wasn't expecting much and SWS was a particular surprise.
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Old 11-26-2012, 06:43 PM   #41273
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Goon was real good
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Old 11-26-2012, 07:08 PM   #41274
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

Anyone seen Pandorum? Worth buying?

It was on TV last night at like 1AM but I fell asleep before I figured out what the deal was with the ship and basically missed the 2nd half of it... It's not on netflix and it seems like it would be decent quality on blu-ray but if the plot is ******ed I'd rather not spend $25 bucks on it
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Old 11-26-2012, 07:11 PM   #41275
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Re: SE FAQ, Liveblog and Holiday Discussion

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Anyone seen Pandorum? Worth buying?

It was on TV last night at like 1AM but I fell asleep before I figured out what the deal was with the ship and basically missed the 2nd half of it... It's not on netflix and it seems like it would be decent quality on blu-ray but if the plot is ******ed I'd rather not spend $25 bucks on it
I liked it - a top end movie within its field.
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