You’re entitled to your own opinion on “should” but an undefeated FSU is about as unavoidable as they come.

It’ll be a 2 td spread or thereabouts.

If you're on team sort_by_losses, that's fine. Just say so.

Who is on the lawnmower!?!?

If there is a way to quantity that weakness it must be mitigated by the fact that a bad kicker induces a coach to play more correctly. Given that positive dynamic I suspect it doesn't matter much.

A bit surprised Texas behind tosu. Not that they won't pass thembut not like Oklahoma State is a huge win for Texas.

yeah that was a little surprising, its not Oh St getting chosen over them that is the worrying part its the fact that they are now a full 3 spots behind Fl St, a full 6 spots behind UGA and still only one spot ahead of Bama with a relatively weak B12 CG opponent that should be worrying, before today i would have said the chances of 12-1 Texas passing a 13-0 Fl St were >> the chances of a 12-1 UGA remaining ahead of a 12-1 Texas, now i would say the exact opposite, committee with these rankings is pretty much saying there is 0 chance of undefeated Fl St getting left out and one-loss UGA remaining ahead of one-loss Texas is very much non-zero.

Injuries should not be taken into account.

I think a combo is best. Just going pure power or pure sort by losses is too much. With pure power, the game results have far less importance. The fun of college football and games like OSU/Michigan is that the result is everything, even if it isn't totally fair. With pure power, the game would have been rendered practically meaningless. As long as the game was close, both teams would probably hold on to a top 3 spot.

OTOH, you can't just straight sort by losses, there are limits to it, and you have to use reason. How much better in a power ranking must a team be to leapfrog one with a better record? 5 pts? 10? 20? I'm not exactly sure, but it seems pretty clear that if a team is 2 TDs better, then you probably want to move them ahead of the unbeaten.

One thing that seems a bit messed up about CFB is that you can win every game you play, and still not even have a shot at the title. AFAIK, this is the only college sport where that's possible. Luckily, the 12-team playoff will probably remedy that, and even crappier undefeateds should get the final playoff spots.

I think back when coaches were complete morons, so about 10 years ago, a lot of teams with great offenses would probably be better off if they did not even have a kicker, and could only use their punter in their own half of the field.

Now that coaches are only semi-morons and get a lot more of the 4th down calls correct, that's probably no longer the case, but they'd still do well to have a rule like no FGs unless it's 4th and 10+ and no punting in + territory. Until the 4th Qtr of course, when we can know that in some scenarios the FG is extremely valuable.

Oregon is weak until it demonstrates otherwise, which it hasn't. Oregon state does not make a resume. Everyone there is high on something anyway. Eugene, corvallis who can tell the difference anyway? Bunch of trees and kids in sandals despite the weather.

I agree with this. Playoff rankings should be 95% resume, 5% Power rating.

Think about it this way. Let's imagine a close game between two playoff contenders. It comes down to a last second field goal attempt that's the difference between winning and losing.

That kick being made or missed probably affects each team's power rating by under one hundreth of a point. But to the people in the stadium that kick means everything and it needs to continue to mean everything for the playoff because that's the entire magic of sports.

I go more like 50/50 and if something like michigan loses to iowa and mccarthy gets long term injured i think putting osu in over them would be fine.

Or maybe it's better to say I'm fine using MoV/game stats as part of resume.

Oh st has finished top 5 Sagarin each of the past 10 years and finished top 3 in 9/10 years, insanely impressive results that are borderline (or not even borderline?) dynasty worthy, but equally impressive is how they have only managed one title and two finals appearances in that same time period and have managed to miss the playoffs in 5/10 of those years.


2014 --- 1 --- won title
2015 --- 3 --- miss playoff
2016 --- 5 --- lose SF
2017 --- 2 --- miss playoff
2018 --- 3 --- miss playoff
2019 --- 2 --- lose SF
2020 --- 2 --- lose F
2021 --- 3 --- miss playoff
2022 --- 3 --- lose SF
2023 --- 2 --- probably miss playoff

I’m not. I’d happily see an undefeated left out for having a joke OOC, for instance. Or a once defeated 2-time national champ. I know they had “rea$on$” to cancel actual good games, but then **** them and let their “rea$on$” console them in the offseason.

FSU had a prime game with LSU in addition to their usual @ Florida matchup. They’re like the opposite of the kind of team I’d discount.

This is sort of how Connelley does his "resume" but I don't like it.

Resume should just be about wins and losses for the reasons mentioned above. (Although, circularly, you should use power in determining how good those wins and losses are)

MOV and Stats are there for power, that's literally what power is made out of, that's where it comes from. They are separate concepts and should be treated separately then blended however you like

90sBarves

I've never advocated anything even remotely close to pure power rankings. You need to have a strong combination of results and power to be one of "the four best teams for the college football playoff." That's why Liberty isn't in this conversation. For that same reason, FSU isn't way ahead of Texas in resume. The gap between their schedule strengths is about the same as the gap between FSU and SMU (or even Liberty depending on which metric you use [see Sagarin]).

Getting brutal out there for Nebraska. Now losing players to farming.

Seeing all this portal movement, how are some of these teams even going to field a team for a bowl game?

Isn't this just because UGA, Bama, and OSU have all basically been historically dominant at the same time?

Deion out here playing 5D chess not having to worry about a bowl game.

He had a vision and executed it perfectly.

Get the clicks early on in the season and get Colorado's name out there. He did that perfectly and had 5 of the most watched games of the season.

After the halfway point, the convo shifts to the playoffs and Deion knew he wouldn't have the horses yet to contend. So what does he do? Starts tanking to make sure Colorado doesn't make a bowl game.

Portal activity is starting early and Deion didn't want to waste several weeks worrying about the Poulan Weed Eater Bowl when he can be securing key pieces for next year. Crush the Portal again, and now Colorado is a legit contender in the watered down Big 12.

Brilliant man, didn’t even want to risk the 5-7 as probably not enough 6 win teams and someone was going to beat his door down

Do we believe he can beat Cincinnati? I wouldn’t count him out

Exactly, no need to risk 5 wins when you'd already accomplished what you set out to.

The HS kids are seeing the writing on the wall and decommitting. Ain't no time to wait for some kid to develop when you can just bring in polished studs via the portal.

Cincy won't be no thang. Prime will demolish them like he did Corn. Beat them by 22, when no B1G school other than Michigan could beat them by >7.

Overall record: 22-25-1

My LOCKS of the week:

Washington +10 (-118)
Ok St +15 (-110)
Louisville ml (+113)
Michigan ml (-2250)
Alabama +6 (-110)
UNLV ml (+120)
NMst +11 (-110)

$20 to win $1,237.95

Notes: The Michigan ml pick will not be counted in the overall record cuz that's too easy. The biggest lock here is Washington +10. No way in hell Oregon is THAT much better than them. It will be a 4th quarter game again. That Ok St spread seems ridiculous too. Texas is one of the worst big game programs in the last 15 years. Ok St winning straight up is almost not even an upset in my mind.

Congrats to Coach Prime on being named SI's Sportsperson of the Year for 2023. Truly amazing what he's been able to accomplish.